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You might want to try my tactic of procrastinating on predictions until after aj makes them ...
909.12 'much above' 908?
see aj's '6 minute' little bit
rr
Note to self: When ajtj99 says something will happen 'a bit' after a specified time, he means approximately 6 minutes.
Good shooting, there, Sir.
rr
OK, above 902. Now, one strong push ... ok breathe ... now PUSH.
We there yet?
If you're going to the trouble to download the .Net framework, look for the latest one, which should be 3.5 or something.
rr
JVP,
+300 points on what, please? AAPL would be good, but I'd take $SPX
and, how come ?
Thanks,
rr
"I won't be surprised to see that number Monday. Shorts are on the edge, judging from quietness from these boards.
Beer market kills bulls, then destroys shorts afterward, I think we're seeing that now."
I've had the beer market kill me too, as well as my shorts. Happens much more often with the whiskey market, though.
Have a great weekend,
rr
Asked this elsewhere ...
Do you know of any indicator / statistic / work which relates TICK and price change? Kind of an average price change per transaction sort of thing?
Have a wonderful weekend,
rr
Aj,
Do you know of any indicator / statistic / work which relates TICK and price change? Kind of an average price change per transaction sort of thing?
rr
JLS,
If you guys are exhausted now about discussing gaps ...
I'm having difficulty reconciling the 'make more money holding longer / trading less' point you make, with what I'm watching (with some amazement)happening in my accounts.
On a good entry / exit, I can make my targeted $500 daily nut on a $10K - $30K capital use, in one trade, in minutes to hours. With discipline, attention, and proper stops, I burn about $50K a day in buying power.
I'll accept the idea that I'd rather spend less time and effort doing this, to make the same or more cash on cash. But, I've never demonstrated it to me. Or, to be fair, tried a lot.
Thank you for the advice. I respect your position and experience.
Now, back to your gap discussion if you wish
rr
Thank you for the link.
While the OS / file system has issues with SSD's, that 7 helps resolve, this link tells you how the little beasties actually work, and why some early gen drives just, well, suck.
http://www.anandtech.com/storage/showdoc.aspx?i=3531&p=1
This is the best explanation of these things I've found on the web. Highly recommended, as someone once said.
rr
Nice chart ...
Trading a 1 minute chart allows me to take money out (or, sadly, close at a loss), frequently and in small slices.
Part of the reason to reference my target nut was to get the "I just need this much money and not more" point into the conversation.
If I internalize a method to work less, and make the same, I will surely take it.
I'm not convinced that 'longer term holding' will do that for me, even though 3 of my 4 methods are just that.
Game on, as they say. It makes markets.
Thanks.
rr
I was a Mac developer in the mid/late 80's. Decided then I'd rather live indoors than be right.
Have an SSD in a crapTop, running 7 Beta. It is sweet.
Can't wait.
rr
I agree: we're going to the top of the roller coaster, and then The BIG drop. Next ...
rr
Aj,
I believe that there are a rotating set of indices / markets / 2x/3x ETF's that are 'played' via TA and program trading. Someday, if I ever take the opportunity, I may actually go find out how to find out. For now, I'm content with my 4 strategies, and SPX/BGU/BGZ.
BUT, we were talking about Goldman Sachs. I'd like a shot at running with the devil ...
rr
I'm an index / ETF kinda guy, not a bankrupt / corrupt / broker single stock person.
Some things even I wouldn't stick my ... money ... into.
So to speak.
rr
I'm waiting to work up my nerve and ambition, to buy an SSD, and put 7 RC on it on my main machine. Need some free time, and more of the rest of my life to settle out a bit.
Feel the urge real bad, though.
I got my download thru MSDN on day 1.
rr
Thanks. Too bad there's not a 3x ETF for GS
Since it's fun, free, and easy to bet on the Internet, I bet we gap up and crap down tomorrow.
'Stresst tests' my lower nether regions ...
rr
Not sure that they don't, Boss, considering how much media time American Idol and the celebrity bimbo squad, and that ... shall we say ... newly attractive black lady I keep seeing get.
I do miss the Pammy Cup days, though.
rr
What else might a computer algorithm for program trading be based on, if not "TA"?
???
rr
T:
Take the short shown at 12:50 or so, exit the trade at 1:48 to 1:55, and you have a very clean 9 SPX points. With a real 3x fund, you get roughly 3%, which makes my target nut capital need under $20K. Not bad for an hour's work.
Yeah, I know it's cherry picking, but it is pretty !!
I agree 1 trillion percent.
rr
My HP-12C keeps heading for scientific notation.
Who does that any more, nowadays?
rr
I've seen the $1M per old person suggestion a lot. This one at least left off the price tag.
40 million people = 40,000,000
@ $1 million per = $1,000,000
should be about $40,000,000,000,000, or in round words, 40 trillion dollars. Somebody check my math.
Ben's gonna need a lot mo' bigger helo's
I do love the idea though. Send mine right along :-0
rr
My favorite GS good old days story ... I remember sitting in one of their conference rooms, looking at one of the 'ez IPO' spreadsheets they had, wondering how they managed to keep their dorsal fins so flat under their multi-thousand dollar suits ...
Nice people, but they're scary.
rr
There's no evidence it has repeated century after century.
You're good thru decades, though. Well played to hold out at millenia as well
Yours in math purity,
rr
T,
Speed kills, I'm told.
But, you guys got me looking at hourly and daily charts with channels on them, so who knows how it will turn out?
Combination of CHAN and KELT have my pattern matcher going "hhhmmmm???".
So, thanks. I think.
rr
T,
Frankly, I'm flattered.
But the 1 minute works better.
There is so much misdirection in this single paragraph ...
The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims, which smooths out volatility, totaled 623,500 last week, a decrease of more than 30,000 from the high in early April. Goldman Sachs economists have said a decline of 30,000 to 40,000 in the four-week average is needed to signal a peak.
Oh, and the Dark Lord's Economists are quoted too ...
rr
JLS,
I appreciate your insight. A few other thoughts:
Currently I use 4 different approaches to trading: 1/5 minute channel tracking; a slow stoch swing aj pointed me to; p&f via dorsey wright for my t rowe price captured 401(K); Steve's MVP black box.
I certainly prefer the 'once a day' systems in terms of my time availability, but I have no firm opinions about which make me the most cash. Frankly, the diversity appeals to me, as does the 'no emotion' part of the mechanical systems.
As for the best traders without computers, well, you can have Jesse Livermore, and I'll take Goldman Sachs
Thank you. I do appreciate the time and thought you gave me here.
rr
Not quite - price channel CHAN, not ENV
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=2&id=p32619630405&a=163395307
I have no idea why I'm having issues with StockCharts postings ...
rr
I think that any bottle of bourbon is good. Decent, that's another story.
Cheap Irish whiskey, if money's the issue. Small batch bourbon, if not.
rr
all 6 may, times approximate
9:40 sell BGU / buy BGZ
9:50 sweat the white candle if short, maybe pull trigger for stop
11:00 exit short at white candle / center line
nothing rest of the day on the 5 minute chart - no band penetrations.
Keep in mind, for me, I use a price channel CHAN(16,3) on the 5 minute chart.
rr
Here's what I do. Let's stick to BGU (3x long SPX).
1 minute chart, $SPX, StockChart's price channel CHAN(16,5), along with other indicators, notably RSI(14) with a MA(20) on it, and MACD (12,26,9) histogram.
If a bar goes outside the top of the price channel, all else being OK, that is a 'get ready to close BGU long' indicator. I'll sell to close when 1) bar goes back inside the channel 2) bar goes below where it entered the channel or 3) bar touches the price center line. It 'depends'.
If the bar goes outside the bottom of the price channel, all else being OK, that is a 'get ready to open BGU long' indicator. I'll buy when the 1) bar goes back inside the channel 2) bar goes below where it entered the channel or 3) bar touches the price center line. Probably.
BGZ is exactly the opposite.
So, no, I don't think you're missing anything. At least, never that I've noticed
rr
Dan,
Thanks.
That is roughly how I trade the 1 and 5 minute charts. I use the 'entrance from' above / below as the go short/long signal. Stops are interesting. What I thought I saw was that one chart or the other fits better depending on ... something. I was thinking about that 'something'.
Thanks again,
rr
JLS,
Thank you.
I'm in process of collecting ideas about what I want for a trading system. Your information is very helpful.
rr
T,
Sure thing, no problem, but 'very close' is a relative term to how wide apart they've been in the recent past. The use of the time based standard deviation over some number of periods accounts for changes over time, but not the 'relative' part.
Appreciate the reply,
rr
TREND1,
Are you aware of any work that has been done to determine if the width of the Bollinger band (or price channel, or Keltner channel, or +-xx% channel of sma) can be modified based on past history to opportunistically trade channel breaches?
Thought I'd ask before I went looking for words I would not recognize, math challenged as I am ...
Thanks for any cluse,
rr
"Yup, my AHD, LEA, LEE, and AXL longs are going gangbusters. We're really killing them!"
Inside baseball humor?
Bored with real pink sheets?
You and LG used to do this in the good old days?
What a world ...
rr
aj,
A question:
When I'm looking at indicators on an hourly chart in Stockcharts, what does the value 'mean' before the hours is up and the bar is complete? Do you understand how is it calculated?
Thanks,
rr