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WELL DONE!!
Let’s focus on the compensation plan for a second:
“The attorney fees for the new compensation plan aren't costing the accountant CEO a plug nickel. “
Why would you say that..? You know I’m not suggesting he’s paying personally, right? All I’m saying is that he would not part with the money unless he thought it was necessary.
I’m just stating at this time, Leo would not have spent the money unless he thought it timely / smart.
First purchases were in CTIX days.. held / traded in and out thru the highs and way down into the Maco lows. Sold to harvest tax loss at 0.15 and about 6 weeks later bought 2x the amount of shares at 0.08
Have bought as high at 0.44 and have an average of about 0.20 on the account with the most of my IPIX in it.. have it in 3 accounts and my wife and kids have it.. I have a lot in my book.. multiple 6 figs shares
Although I’m still wrestling with selling out a bit to reduce my expenditure, I really haven’t. I think this time is for real. Why else would:
- an accountant CEO pay all that money to attorney’s to add a new compensation plan
- would compassionate use be allowed by the FDA
- would the government labs increase research on B verses other awful viruses just weeks before results are published.. (I mean, how silly would they look if it failed ??)
Bottom line is I believe… and hope.. these trials are successful. And I’ve been through way too many highs and lows with this thing to not have a full load on as it crushes this trial!!!
Now.. that said.. I wish the trial was bigger and I wish it wasnt 90% overseas!
But what I also believe is that if the trial is, for whatever reason, less than stellar.. That the cash hoard that Leo has accumulated will allow the company to go forward in some way with other indications and that B will be commercialized at the day’s end. So in the unlikely scenario that the stock craters, as the hopeful throw in the towel.. I’m not sure I would follow them. I think Leo has a second act either way.
Lonely Are The Brave
(And I’ve only invested what I can willingly risk)
Thanks! You are the man!
So.. that begs the question: If they only accessed under $5mil of Aspire, how did the company go from nearly bankrupt a year ago to about 10mil in the bank? Certainly they’ve been shelling out money as well.. am I right?
Fine.. your point taken. I would hope they would stop and hold out for higher prices. But, I know that Leo previously thought he’d sell shares to ensure IPIX can “live to fight another day”. But that was last year and I do not know his current thoughts.
However, please hear me when I say that company shares are being sold when you see >50% of any day’s volume sold short, but do not see the short interest go up or any change in the stock borrow-loan rate Mr Loan.
What we dont know is if the shares being sold recently are from a newly issued notes sold to Aspire, which would mean the company is continuing to sell shares now, or if it’s from previous notes that Aspire chose to hold on to for bigger returns.
And let me ask you a question please… Does the company have any obligations to continue sales to Aspire?? Are they locked into continuing or can they stop at will? Was there a minimum? And if so, can we have any guess as to where it stands?
Mr. Loan,
I certainly appreciate your insights and the time you put into your researched replies, but in the company funding regard, please allow me to opine.
I am very confident the clear indicator of company funding activity is a high percentage of ‘short sale’ volume on a given day that does NOT result in borrow demand or increased short interest. We have seen a lot of this in IPIX. When as much as 50+ percent of sales are listed short, something is going on for sure.
Now, given their is no elevated short interest in the stock, and no ‘borrow demand’ as measured by stock loan fees (rebates), I can state with confidence that it is most likely the company / Aspire selling. It abated for a while and now there’s some signs again with 59% of volume traded yesterday ‘short’.
When a derivative is owned, whether it’s options, a convertible note, or a swap (or any other derivative) and one wants to sell stock to hedge, it has to be listed as a short sale. (They are not in possession of the shares as they have yet to ‘convert’ their derivative). These ‘short sales’ are covered by the derivative.. and once the derivative is converted, the position is ‘closed out’ with no resulting increase in ‘short interest’ observed.. and of course no borrow rate pressure increasing the stock loan fee. This, in my opinion, is confusing folks as there is no ‘buying’ pressure caused by this shorting.. it’s a hedge to the convertable note they bought from the company.
This is the world I lived in… I was a floor trader (options market maker on the Amex) and moved upstairs to become a derivatives inter-dealer broker. I ran an equity derivatives group NY and London that focused on these and similar trades..
That said, I believe the company’s funding activities have slowed, but they are still at work.. Likely Aspire/MFO held onto a recent tranche and are now hedging that out at these higher prices
Ha! It’s all about the tea leaves!!
We are on the same page.. Leo is moving forward
I believe you are correct Dane.. The word is beginning to get out.
Those familiar with the Compassionate Use results seem passionate about our little secret.. And yes, if there are any discussions going on, there’s really no way to keep it all quiet.
Hugon,
Thank you for your answers here.. I think you nailed it.
OK everyone.. I agree with Loanranger on this for sure.
First a little background on me.. I am a now retired 30 yrs Wall St veteran that ran an ‘inter-dealer’ equity derivative and finance group in both NY and London (trade focuses included: balance sheet capacity, finance, dividend tax treatment and … borrow loan). We enabled equity derivative groups of most all the major banks and broker dealers to outsource a more competitive rate then provided to them via their own internal funding / balance sheet / dividend treatments etc, etc, etc). This way, they had alternatives, rather than being held hostage to their onerous internal treatments (what their firm charges them, etc.)
So I dare say that I’m fairly qualified in this regard.. (left in 2016).. and I lived it.
Now.. there is no elevated borrow/loan rate concerns and there are plenary of shares outstanding, meaning no rate squeeze.. (my fidelity account, which is actively lent to generate income, does not have IPIX shares lent at all). So if shares are cheap to borrow and available, there is little motivation to run afoul of any regulations (naked shorts), anyone could and would just borrow shares and deliver.
The years of IPIX having 50% “short sales” were the MFO sales, I am 99.99% sure. That’s because when a derivative (a convertible note for instance) is owned but not ‘converted’ yet.. any hedging sales are marked ‘short’. These short sale NEVER need to result in a buy order b/c once the bond is converted, the borrow is returned and the ‘short’ is closed out through the conversion, not a purchase. (They could still trade around the ‘short sales’ using the convert as a backstop.. I have certainly done trading around a hedge like that to generate more mileage out of the surety of having the convert.. side chat me if anyone wants more on that)
A scenario you may be more familiar with: The same would happen if you were long a call option and ‘shorted’ the stock to hedge.. when the option is converted, the stock is delivered to you and is used to satisfy the short in your account.. so no stock purchase required.
Now.. that said, there could be small shorts out there.. but it’s insignificant… all you have to do is look at the open short interest and the borrow rate.. there is no pressure right now and that has to be accurately reported, Also, over the last few years I’ve never seen it high in this name.
So if there is a boogie man (shorts or naked shorts) in this name, he’s not significant in any way.
Hope this helps...
"All Aboard! The train is leaving the station!"
I hope everyone can see (by the volume and upside bias in the SP) the company's funding sales have lessened or abated.. To me that has multiple implications:
- they have enough money for now
- other funding may soon be available (so share sales to "live for another day" as Leo once mentioned to me via email)
- or it could imply clues about results of compassionate use results might be know by the company (I do not believe anyone has trial results yet)
Either way, the company and it's funding avenues appear to either be holding off or minimal. That's a good thing..
This is just my opinion.. (but I have read tapes for years, 30yr Wall Street career)
Why?
So what there’s a delay… Oh and note now that it says the “week of Nov 8th”.. big deal! So dont be bellyaching when it’s a few days past Nov 8th either.. can we agree that’s known and ok too?? .
OK.. what we learned from this PR is:
-The results will be known soon
-The US government is still onboard.. Do you really think Govt labs would expand testing at this time, against all those other viruses if the results were questionable? More results/information will be known very shortly.. why not wait if there was a (any) question(s) about efficiency? (Honestly you seem smart, but read the tea leaves!)
- We will soon have 20 more shots on goal (which is unbelievable!)
-This additional testing will be done by government labs (beyond reproach)
- This additional testing is done on their dime! (Love it!)
Ha.. Would you want to be a government lab that’s just decided to expand testing of an antiviral candidate that just failed a test?? NO YOU WOULD NOT.. you’d wait. So, my read of the tea leaves, albeit admittedly optimistic, is they know what’s happed here in the US via the compassionate use examples or our two testing sites.... and that’s what’s driving those decisions.. the results could be amazing!
So, do you really think this is a hopeless situation because of a delay.. ? This is a delay during Covid.. Exactly what’s not delayed?
And NOTE:
I believe the company is most likely NOT continuing its share sales at this time.. that’s another reason volume is so low.. Remember the big 0.27 bid? That was not hit right away.. We can all agree months ago it would have been hit like sh*t thru a goose.
That in itself is interesting
No way... bought 40k more at 0.37
I asked Leo the same question..about 8 month ago, but did so with a friend that owns an oral surgery clinic. The Dr. wanted a pre-procedure rinse for surgery / dentistry... Leo’s response was that it was a good idea, but would potentially hurt the OM indication which is further along in development.
So it seemed, and rightly so, that he was not going to deviate at this time for a broader/low $ application like that
Guys.. I’ve been in the stock and reading this board for years. New to posting though.
Here’s the thing that I want to air out with you.. Opinions wanted!
I know a guy that worked at big Pharma negotiating deals. He’s closed >200 Billion dollars worth of deals. I’ve discussed IPIX and B with him at length, and although he’s not a scientist, he liked the story and think it’s got a shot. However, his comment was that BP does not like buying ‘split’ indications for a drug.. they would rather own the whole drug than one indication... “it’s too hard to track”
That said, could this be why Leo’s had so much trouble getting a BP partnership / help / $$$.. IF Leo believes there are multiple billion dollar indications he would want a huge price that’s not justified at this point... and hence the ‘go it alone’ apparent path we’re on. Obviously good P2 results fixes a lot of funding / exposure issues.
Please let me know your thoughts