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when will full Crystal data be reported? At the actual presentation or in the AM prior to that?
damn straight. liars.
(WSJ:)
"The news on Vectibix emerged after an interim analysis of the 1,054-patient study found that the control group receiving chemotherapy and Avastin, without Vectibix, had less tumor progression and better overall survival. The results were statistically significant."
----------------------------------
Is that the same as saying the stuff kills people when mixed with x and y?
corky, my dear friend
i recall hearing that pmab would not get approval. or at best an odac and a refusal, or an approvable letter...what's changed this time?
with respect
Wabbit
mee too.
i think some of the imclone longs are still in serious denial and may see themselves lose badly, this thing could go back to single digits under the right circumstances imho. i hate this shit company. merry xmas, varick vampires
Yes, I agree the volume isn't compelling. Yet you would think that if there is no news leak, then IMCL would simply be trading on technicals for now, until there is some whiff of news. This has been constant erosion, volume or not, and technical traders usually jump all over stocks that have be oversold technically for long periods of time. Take a look at the full stochastics: they have been very oversold for an unusually long time now. That is fairly unusual.
My bet, assuming that there is leaked news (and there may not be) would be that someone expects positive PACCE results. This might account for the low volume, since the news would be more tangentially related to IMCL than, say, if the news involved a failed or mixed-result Erby trial. Thus those in the know would be more apt to be playing AMGN than playing the secondary effect on IMCL.
If the prelim PACCE results come before Erby results, and the PACCE results are decent, then IMCL will take a big hit. That might create a big buying opportunity just before Erby trial results, which I tend to think will be good.
IMCL Share price drop
I know the volume is not high. I could be wrong, but such a sustained downdraft makes me wonder if some news has leaked. It would either have to be good preliminary PACCE #s, which will pummel IMCL, or bad Erby trial #s, which would also pummel IMCL.
IMHO
Thoughts?
IMCL IR says
It expects Crystal data in Q1, 2007. "That is the information we are giving to investors."
Just spoke to them.
CRYSTAL RESULTS
Anyone know when they are due and what is the source, please. I thought I'd been consistently reading that Crystal was due in Q1 07. (in our experience, I'd expect that to mean March 31:))
Now I'm reading on the ymb (beach) pumping on about how they are definitely coming before the end of 2006. Where is this info from?
maybe it works for him.
i didnt know andrea was interested in the ceo job
Does anyone know when Erbitux, based on trial data and submissions guidelines, could be formally launched on a bi-monthly regime as well, thus eliminating the Vectibix advantage?
It seems like this is another thing hanging over Imclone's heads. It would be significant to see it put to rest.
In that case, they will likely need to raise more cash no later than 1Q-2Q 2008, IMO.
Dew, what is cash on hand at the end of 2007, assuming very modest numbers for Atryn sales in 07?
Next round of dilution
I think a discussion about when the next dilution/share offering might be would be of some value here. Past experience has shown that GTCB generally starts going around with the begging bowl before the cupboard hits less than 20 million or so. Therefore, I see it likely that GTCB must raise more cash no later than the second half of 2007. Counting on some meteoric launch of Atryn is not going to pay the bills, IMHO.
This may explain the current weakness (25 percent move down over a month). Typically, this stock has moved pre-news (corruption, leaks) and I'm just ruminating here, but perhaps GTCB is starting the paperwork for another dilution now.
Thoughts welcomed and appreciated.
maybe. but there is not much even Carl can say, unless he issues orders to deal with Yeda and get this wrapped up. Of course they should sue the pants off Aventis on the same day.
Carl, if you are reading this, please issue orders to put this Yeda affair behind this. It is a very negative distraction.
Actually, I didn't mean you Dew.
My point is that when it comes to potentially materially negative news, many have had blindfolds on when it comes to Imclone.
I would remind you that none of the long time longs here gave any chance at all that YEDA's suit would succeed. One even put the odds at "0 percent". They laughed it off. And guess what, Imclone lost the case by a country mile.
1/ Their entire legal team should be fired ASAP.
2/ They need to settle with Yeda. NOW, DAMN IT.
To us no, but it will remind people that that case is still out there. I'm sure the market will punish Imclone for this. I'd wager a nickel that Imclone will open down tomorrow. You game?
Pharma posted a very detailed examination of the case by a patent lawyer who reviewed every page of the ruling. He said there is no chance in hell that Imclone wins this on appeal. They need to settle and move on, NOW!
It asked the court to require ImClone to purchase a non-exclusive license to its patent, and to order triple unspecified damages because infringement of the patent was willful along with other damages for unjust enrichment.
Ouch.
News came out at 19:52. Tomorrow could be painful.
DJ Israeli Researchers Want ImClone To Pay Patent Royalties
.
NEW YORK (AP)--Saying ImClone Systems Inc. (IMCL) lacks rights to a patent used for its blockbuster drug Erbitux, the licensing arm of an Israeli research institution has asked a judge to award it restitution and order ImClone to license the patent and pay it royalties.
Yeda Research & Development Co., handling the legal issue for the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehobot, Israel, said in papers filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan on Tuesday and made public Wednesday that ImClone is infringing on its patent through its Erbitux sales.
It did not ask the judge to stop sales of the drug, and a lawyer for Yeda has said Yeda would not threaten the distribution of cancer-treating drugs.
U.S. District Judge Naomi Reice Buchwald last month ruled that three Weizmann scientists were the true inventors of a patented treatment involving a combination of chemotherapy and specific antibodies such as one used in Erbitux to fight cancer.
She ordered the seven names on the patent taken off and the three Weizmann names put on. Two days after the decision, ImClone sued Yeda, asking the judge to find the patent was invalid because Yeda never applied for it after its scientists did their work in the 1980s.
ImClone's lawsuit has not yet been ruled upon. It had earlier licensed the patent from Aventis Pharmaceuticals Inc., which owned it before the judge ruled.
ImClone also is appealing Buchwald's findings regarding the patent's ownership to the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which has not yet heard the case. ImClone is the company whose founder, Sam Waksal, is serving a prison sentence for his role in the stock scandal that also ensnared Martha Stewart.
Messages left with lawyers for ImClone and Yeda were not immediately returned Wednesday.
Within days of Buchwald's ruling, Yeda granted licensing rights to its patent to ImClone competitor Amgen Inc. (AMGN) for its drug Vectibix to treat colon cancer patients.
In an answer to ImClone's lawsuit, lawyers for Yeda said ImClone has received at least $1.35 billion in royalty payments and other fees through a September 2001 distribution agreement with Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY).
They said ImClone also had arranged to receive a distribution fee of 39 percent of product revenue in North America until the deal with Bristol-Myers expires in 2018. Yeda said sales of Erbitux in North America were projected to total $4.7 billion over the next five years.
It asked the court to require ImClone to purchase a non-exclusive license to its patent, and to order triple unspecified damages because infringement of the patent was willful along with other damages for unjust enrichment.
After 11 years of clinical trials, Erbitux was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in February 2004 for the treatment of colorectal cancer and in March for treatment of head and neck cancers.
The FDA says colon cancer is the third deadliest form of cancer in the United States, causing an estimated 55,000 deaths in 2006.
ImClone shares closed down 89 cents, or 2.8%, at $30.40 on Wednesday.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 01, 2006 19:51 ET (00:51 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 07 51 PM EST 11-01-06
what time did this come out?
if it came out after the close, expect a gap down in the AM.
What percentage of IMCL's profits does Yeda want? Did someone say 50 percent?
Also, what kinds of fines can the judge levy on Imclone and what percentage royalty will Imclone be forced to pay?
<<I agree completely and have made the point directly to the company.
>>
Dew: What was the company's response to your question about why insiders hold such pitifully low levels of the common?
tia
Thanks Dew, I havent lurked here in a while and realized that many of the answers are in the read me first, which I've now read.
I'm still very surprised that GTCB's share value has actually declined following what is easily the most significant milestone in its history, and that it actually traded at a far higher price when it was not even known whether the company would survive this long.
Hell, the price was even higher at one point after Atryn had been rejected earlier this year, and things looked very grim.
Either this is just flying below radar and is one of the biggest deals in recent history, or its market potential is simply overrated by longs. As you say, that's what makes a market.
Regards
That would be precisely my point. GTCB was not only trading at $50 during the bubble, it was still trading at $4+ at the depths of the market lows in 2001-2002, and later.
Now it has an approved drug and is constantly losing ground, worth more or less a buck. That's right, $1. Or 75% less than just three years ago when BK was still a possible danger.
Are you telling me you are happy with that? What's the incentive to invest if Atryn approval can't move the stock? Moral satisfaction?
(Dew and others) re: GTCB's Poor Performance
I've been in and out of GTCB a while, still am holding a chunk, and, am thinking of buying more.
I must admit however that I am surprised by the very poor performance of GTCB's common post-approval. Even accounting for dilution, GTCB is significantly down, and shows little sign of reacting to mildly positive news, like the recent 25 mln investment by the French firm.
This certainly defies the predictions of many GTCB longs (like Norman Klein) who confidently predicted $3-4 a share post EMEA approval.
What are the opinions here regarding the reasons for GTCB to continue to perform so weakly, despite getting substantial press recently? What are the main upcoming possible catalysts for the stock?
And lastly, because I don't follow this on a daily basis, what is the likely realistic BLA submisson and approval date for Atryn in the USA?
Thanks in advance
wrong link. this is a cardio abstract, tain't got nothin to do with Icahn or Cetux.
That's Bob Newhart's wife.
Geez Dew, you're old.
IN such a high profile case as this, it wouldnt hurt Imclone to do their part and pitch in, both for moral reasons and as a statement about the mission of the company as it waits for coverage determinations from countries like the UK.
But Imclone management has better things to do, like lining its pockets with important option packages for its valuable army of VPs. Unfortunately, Imclone is and always has been a company run by robber-barron creeps and it will never shake off its putrid reputation until chopped up, sold, or merged/renamed combined with a mass purge of VP parasites and other dead weight. As said, it is very hard to reform a company whose corporate culture is rooted in you know what. The sooner this disgusting company meets its demise, the better.
Just my opinion.
options
+earnings. looks like you will get the chance to buy at the lows again (25-27 or so) after earnings. Just my opinion.
<<(Oh yeah - check their brief cases - IMCL defintely has the security staff to do it - office supply expenditures have increased.>>
please clarify. is this some sort of suggestion of theft or other malfeasance at Imclone? first i've heard of it.
Dew, thanks. I've compared the situations but I think there are as many dissimilarities are similarities.
I still think Imclone will have one last jump and pump as all of the phase IIIs come out over the next 12-16 months.
I fully expect Icahn to dump and run then, or the company to be sold. I can't imagine that anyone would turn down 50 for the whole company, or that Icahn expects even a red cent more than that for own shares. I'm guessing he'll get that, but I'd put money on a bet that Imclone will never ever see its previous highs again. Too much gangrene on this moldy hag.
Dew, you taking investment advice from the NY Post these days? I'm not sure I'd use that rag to line a dog toilet.
All of that aside, it was a funny article. Thanks for posting it.
my hunch is that bubbietubbie is either a current Imclone employee, or a former one with options left, and as such his views on competitors are the opposite of objective. i'm surprised he's still posting on yahoo, as discredited as his opinions are after guaranteeing a pani approvable letter or outright rejection. just my hunch.
Yes. We as shareholders have a right to be proud of that $35.50 prospective offer for IMCL, and the two bits SNY was willing to tack on to take the whole kabang at $36. That's right, we got that offer for $36. Nobody can take that away from us. Who is SNY trying to fool?
You're in a minority of one with that opinion I'm afraid.
Kerkorian is not pissed off with GM because their pursuit of Imclone is a signal to Toyata. Kerkorian is pissed at GM because their pursuit of Imclone may drive up his buyout price of Imclone. Kerkorian doesnt want to have to partner Imclone with GM.
Get the facts straight. This is an investment board you know.
kerkorian is interested in buying imclone