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ShawnP, You're valuing AYTU at $40 million????
Come on now... You aren't being realistic. You're saying the Price-to-Sales ratio should be about 1x? When the industry standard is over 10x???
I can understand your negativity, but $3 per share is just ridiculous.
Let me blow your mind... I predict the price will hit $20 in 2021.
At what point do you say... Wow, AYTU is undervalued?
Book Value is $8.24 per share
Market Cap is $80 million
Let's not forget, although they are experiencing high expenses, AYTU is near profitability.
Excellent analysis Stonewall-Patriot.
Keep asking questions...
Why would a large financial institution be interested in buying 13% to 15% of AYTU?
Why would AYTU reverse stock split 10 to 1?
Could it be the HC Wainwright Co. agreement was contingent on the reverse stock split?
Could it be the HC Wainwright Co. had requirements for AYTU to jump out of penny stock territory?
Why would a large financial institution suddenly invest millions of dollars into AYTU? What would motivate them? Maybe they saw preliminary results of the HealLight???
Keep asking questions....
I have worked for a small community hospital, worth over $1.5 billion.
Our lab is experiencing an all-time high in covid testing sales. We're testing almost 2,000 people per day. In the spring it was under 1,000. The demand for covid testing is increasing and companies are willing to pay a lot to test their employees. Our revenues are up 500 percent compared to the spring. AYTU must be experiencing a similar increase. November was great!
My hospital has a lab drive-through here in Michigan. We were averaging 1,000 cars per day over the summer. Now it's averaging over 1,500 per day!!!
Senior living centers are paying hundreds of thousands of dollars to test employees continuously. AYTU can capitalize on this, bypassing the lab services and offering on-site results in 15 minutes!!!!
This is worth millions in revenue just in two or three counties!!!
Imagine if you offered it to large senior centers nationally????
I'm beginning to accumulate more shares at $1.
ATYU is practically at book value. Very attractive at this price.
Aytu BioScience, Inc. (NASDAQ: AYTU) reported earlier in September that the Company has signed an agreement to distribute the Pinnacle CovID RAD Rapid Antigen Detection Test worldwide. The rapid antigen test, which delivers results in fifteen minutes, tests for the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus antigen via a nasopharyngeal sample and can be conducted without the use of laboratory equipment. Aytu BioScience, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company (the "Company") focused on commercializing novel products that address significant patient needs announced today that the Company has signed an agreement to distribute the Pinnacle CovID RAD Rapid Antigen Detection Test worldwide.
I don't think investors realize how big this is. My hospital lab is one the largest in the state of Michigan. We're performing 1,000 Covid-19 tests just for one city each day. It takes at least a day for the results and the lab charges extra fees to process. Businesses like nursing and senior centers are paying thousands each week to test their employees. AYTU could save them thousands... perhaps millions over the course a year!
jbDiver, this stock is not going to 0.50 cents.
You guys crack me up. I wish I could buy this company at $0.50 cents.
Investor emotions is what makes investors money. Keep panicking!
lol...
To those investors investing specifically for the Healight.
I taught business research for years...
It takes months to conduct a study.
It also takes awhile to peer review a study also.
So there... panic some more. lol...
It's comical to watch some AYTU investors panic...
I hope it drops to a new low. The more I can buy and average down.
TagMonster,
If I were AYTU's finance executive, I would be open about the contribution margin for the test kits. (Price - Variable Expense = CM)
What is the variable costs for test kits? Either way, they need to educate the investors so investors can properly analyze the company performance.
I would also breakdown the sources of revenue from each product.
They need to be fully transparent. This way the stakeholders could easily monitor the revenue progress of each product-line. Multiple sources of revenue is AYTU's strength. It's not a one trick pony with just the Healight.
The other area I would breakdown is expenses for each product-line. Obviously they have a lot of upfront costs in acquisitions, R&D, studies, logistics and marketing costs. But investors understand these types of costs involved in growing a small company with ambitious goals.
They need to show high expenses and then explain a strategy to solve the problem of a negative margin.
The key problem investors are watching closely is the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) or in service oriented companies it's called Cost of Revenue. This is the direct costs in getting your product finished for sale. They need to show they recognize the problem and generally explain their plan to solve the problem... or at least show some improvement.
I will say, they have a small finance department and I'm sure they were busy just trying to meet SEC regulations on all the activity happening in just a few months time, plus throw in Covid-19 within the workplace. That CFO must be drained. If I were AYTU, I would hire an Financial Analyst with the sole focus to improve financial reporting which breaks this stuff out more.
I don't know the price AYTU charges for each test. However, as a finance person within a midsize community hospital, we charge $35 per test within our lab. Our hospital utilizes the lab for next day results. I wish we had the 15 minute testing result AYTU offers. I think we pay about $25 dollars for our test kits and then charge an additional $10 for a lab fee.
I accrued a quarter million dollars to set aside for future test kit purchases just the other day.
If I were AYTU, sell test kits to nursing homes. Nursing home companies are currently paying hundreds of thousands EACH WEEK on testing their employees! With AYTU's test kit, the nursing homes could administer the testing themselves, instead of hiring outside labs to handle the process.
TagMonster,
AYTU said the revenue was much higher for covid testing in September.
The short-term money on this stock is large, but unfortunately it's for Healight. If you're a short-term investor, the Healight is huge. Right it's still in the process of a study, which probably won't have many updates until late November.
From a long-term perspective, I suggest buying in November. Hold on to your shares. You will be happy in the coming new year.
Yes I agree, it's very odd the stock dropped after beating the street estimates. I think the Healight news is driving the price of this stock. The company had very little news on the Healight. If I could talk to the CEO, I would suggest to have the President of the United States announce any successful study to the media. Remember, Trump was hammered for mentioning the Healight technology earlier in the year.
I'm impressed with the CEO and the leadership of AYTU. They're taking on an ambitious strategy and it's going to involve higher expenses.
If this company announces strong positive news on the Healight, it will blow well past $3 dollars per share.
AYTU Beats the Street-Possible Takeover Target?
* Highest revenue in company history. $14.9 Million ($5 million monthly)
That's $60 Million Annually!!!!
In 2019 AYTU averaged $610,000 monthly revenue or $7 Million Annually
That's an increase of 860%!!!
* EPS came in better than Analysts expectations
* 2.67 Current Ratio, ($75M Current Assets/28M Current Assets) which proves AYTU can easily meet short-term obligations.
* $50 Million in Rights/Patents/Tradenames
* $48 Million in Cash
* $95 Million in Stockholders Equity
* Healight is an attractive technology with the potential to become global.
* Healight technology will be altered to be used through the nose or mouth. This potential aspect could bring in hundreds of millions of dollars alone. Saving hospitals millions of dollars. This is important to hospitals, because it could help the patient heal faster, while driving down length of stay for older and ICU patients.
* AYTU is perfectly placed to offer Covid-19 testing and emergency approved by the FDA. This alone is very attractive to a major player such as Kodak.
* Multiple drug products on a global scale.
* Expected to be profitable in 2021
Conclusion:
Today was a major accomplishment for AYTU. Just a few months ago it was a penny stock. Today the company has proven it has a viable global business plan with multiple streams of revenue. Management has lofty goals for such a small company. But surprisingly, they're accomplishing their goals very quickly. As a result, their expenses are high. But this is typical for small company with lofty goals. Today management is earning creditability. I've taught business for many years at the graduate level. I've studied mergers and acquisitions for many years. I would not be surprised if AYTU is notified of a 13D being filed very soon. If I was a larger player in the market, I'd wait for the news on the Healight before I make a move.
Shawn,
A dramatic increase in revenue can be a great sign. If they have a large increase in revenue and still lost money, then analyze the expenses closely. Is it because of bad margins in operations or are there other temporary costs that are affecting the bottom line?
In my opinion, AYTU is setting the infrastructure for long-term profitable growth. It takes a lot of upfront costs to accomplish this type of strategy. I like what they're doing.
I work in finance. My non-profit employer is worth billions. We recently bought a small hospital and it took 2 years to fully implement the merger. I can only imagine the task and hoops AYTU had to jump through as a small public company. The important issue is that management can speak and make decisions based on the correct numbers.
Greetings AYTU Board
While I doubt AYTU can beat the -$0.03 per share forecast, I expect some good news tomorrow, which will make the stock jump.
I've traded the markets for years, taught business in graduate school and I currently work in finance at a community hospital.
I learned about AYTU through The President of the United States and a Lou Dobbs report. I saw the media doing their usual attack on Trump, for saying light could possibly help fight the virus. So it made me more curious after the Lou Dobbs report.
I performed due diligence on AYTU and learned how AYTU was much more than a one-trick pony. My short-term target for AYTU is $3 dollars. I see AYTU becoming profitable in 2021. They're setting up the proper infrastructure to acquire large revenue streams from multiple sources, which I stress the importance of this strategy in graduate school every semester. I tell my students, business is like war. Multiple sources of revenue are like creating multiple flanks against the enemy while attaining the goals to make customers (Drucker) and make money (Goldratt).
For the past several months I've enjoyed reading everyone's posts here on the AYTU message board.