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The closer we get to approval, the more we see the true colors of so many of the hedge fund social army who has tried for years to tell us they are long term investors. Their "devil's advocate" claims in the past has turned out to be a bunch of crap and recently we have seen them give up their cloak of being long term investors.
They have continued to use the 'flawed trial design' after the results were published, with complete disregard to the amazing results, which shows that they are more beholden to their own financial interests than to those of the patients. I am 100% sure they figured they could put pressure on FDA to either not approve or delay the approval for quite some time. After all, we in the US are 100% beholden to financial interests over patient care. The fact that MHRA will likely be the determining RA in the approval process is no less than a brilliant move by LP and NWBO.
Sorry Gary,
No company will pay $30B for a company with a market cap of less than $1B. There will not be any kind of buy-out or large (10% or higher) equity partnership for a long time.
In regard to the lack of a current partnership. The timing for a possible partnership will be post approval. There's no way LP would enter into any agreement until she has the goods in her hand. The time in the past for a partnership (with milestones) would have been prior to TLD being published. I am not sayiong that a partnership/licensing agreement is 100% in the works, but if they have been working on it, we will know about it post approval.
Flipper,
Have you spoken to him yourself? I would take the posts here, reporting what he has said with a very big grain (mountain) of salt. Every poster here has an agenda. Each and every one will report their interpretation of what they want his words to mean. Even between bulls there will be a variation of agendas, as people have different levels of patience and time horizons for their investment.
I spoke to him a few weeks ago. I understand what he can and can't say, so didn't really try to ask him many questions. I did ask about how we have so many different views of what the company plans to PR and not PR in the future. He told me that he has told each and everyone who has asked to go look at the strategy they laid out at the ASM and that is what they will attempt to follow. His overall attitude was a lot more relaxed than my previous conversations with him and maybe even a little more upbeat, despite his seemingly upbeat nature. Those are just my observations and as a supporter of NWBO, should be taken with that in mind.
I commend you for arguing with people who lack the very basic comprehensive skills.
If people here can't spot the bears, then it's on them.
That's just the 'reported legal shorts'. The actual legal short number could be closer to 100M as the reporting requirements are very weak and not all legal shorts get reported.
I am not saying you are wrong in your beliefs. I don’t know if there’s a definitive event that will let them know that the application has been submitted. I was lead to believe by people who are in the biotech investment community that a rolling submission could end with an approval of the application. That once all the back and forth between company and MHRA is done and MHRA is satisfied, they ‘could’ see an approval as the end result. I don’t know enough and the information I got was qualified with ‘could happen’. Either way I am fine with where we are at.
I invested in this company because of LP and her story/background. I added to my investment because of the science and Dr’ KA and LL.
The failed trial argument was probably a fairly good argument until a few years ago, as most of these companies fail. The HF's and WS short these companies because they will almost always be right or be in a position to take the companies down via financial manipulation. In regard to NWBO, they have obviously caused a lot of damage throughout the years, but the failed trial argument has been dead for some time now.and LP has been able to prevent the financial ruin of NWBO. They lost both battles, which doesn't happen very often. They are clinging on to a desperate fight because of EGO and vanity. They simply can't believe that they lost to NWBO.
I could care less if it happens next week, next month, Q4 or next year. I know it will happen, that’s good enough for me.
Getting approved first in UK would imply US approval to follow. The combo trials are the insurance policy should the first statement above turn out not to happen. I sleep like a baby knowing how well it all lines up.
The fact that some posters think they won’t be approved in the US is outrageous. If combo trials are as successful as predicted or close to, Merck will make sure it gets approved. Whoever the BP will be that will have a deal with NWBO can”t afford for DCVax-L not to get approved. It’s pretty simple.
I have never talked about a buy-out, so not sure who you are addressing the Merck question to. It is exactly because of the current share price and that LP is well aware of the true value of NWBO, that I don't see any chance of a buy-out, but a high likelihood of a licensing agreement with limited equity involved.
I tend to agree, but I am no expert on the inner workings of the MHRA. I do know that we could have gotten the MIA at an earlier time, but during the process they decided to go for the 'Bonus' version of including a lot more in that license than just a simple MIA of the production process of DCVax-L. That was a really big deal that was glanced over by the investment community. I know that Diver has been all over it as he seem to understand the significance of what the license includes.
I don't know, you tell me. With the changes to the MHRA in recent time and with the political support that GBM seems to have in the UK, I would not venture into guessing the time frame between Acceptance of application and approval. In my own investment narrative, it is not important, as I am here long after approval.
I don't think anyone I know believe they wouldn't PR good news. I think that once the rolling review is completed and they get acceptance of the application by MHRA, they will PR it. That is just based on what they outlined at the last ASM. My point is that they will not know when the rolling application process is done until they get the word from MHRA. This application process likely started long ago and when MHRA has no more questions or requests, they will accept the application. I think that because this is a rolling application, the timeline from acceptance of application to approval is a lot shorter than doing it without the rolling application.
As being in a rolling review is not a guarantee of acceptance of the application, I think that any PR to announce that would not necessarily be good news. It would create another chance for the shorts to create their own timeline as to when they expect events to happen.
We didn't discuss any specific regulator or program. He has been involved in a lot of submission to different regulators and I just wanted to know how rolling submissions work and if he thought NWBO was doing a rolling submission. He is, as far as I know, not invested in NWBO as he had never heard of them. I briefly explained what kind of drug they were developing and he quickly stated that then it was, in his mind, definitely a rolling submission.
Had a long talk last night with a 30+ year veteran in biotech/pharma. He told me that what NWBO is likely doing is a rolling submission that will have questions and answers back and forth between the company and the regulators. When the regulators are satisfied, they will let NWBO know that their application has been accepted. He said that there is not a clear time differential between submission and acceptance in these situations, so he didn’t think that NWBO could PR the submission as they wouldn’t know when that was completed until they got the acceptance of the application.
I agree, just wanted to see if you would venture into a guess for any PR from Merck regarding any interim results from the combo trial.
When do you expect/hope to see anything published by Merck regarding the combination trial? Do you think they will have to wait until DCVax-L is approved?
Tenacious is the word most often heard when people around her describe her.
I find it interesting that prior to TLD, the short army was quiet and some of them even easily disguised as longs. They were fine with a rise in the SP as they felt confident they could move it down. Now that they can see the end in sight, they are no longer letting it run. TLD also meant that some of these disguised longs have changed their tune. We have also seen a drastic number of bears arrive post TLD, all in order to discourage new investors and scare nervous retain investors.
It is impossible to convince people with an agenda.
Thanks survivor. I have always felt we would not hear about the application unless information was leaked by MHRA or anyone who are involved in the process. I don't think that is what he was saying though. It was rather cryptic. The people I know who have spoken to DI says he has never told them that they would PR application or approval of application. He has also not told them they would not be PR'ing them. I understand that there's some here who claims that he has told them they will and I can't say if they are telling the truth or not, because I was not privy to those conversations.
It has been a long time since I have communicated with DI, as I have found in the past that he has never been able to provide any information of value that wasn't known publicly. It is NOT his job to give out non-public information. It is his job as investor relations to inform people who know little about the company about what NWBO does and to relay them all the information that is already public knowledge. Since most people here already knows an amazing amount of information, due to the amazing DD that has been shared here and on Twitter and other social media platforms, we are not the target audience for his communications. His job is to remind people and us about the amazing progress that have already been detailed in PR's and quarterly statements. When people from this board calls, texts or email him with questions, he can only tell us what has already been made public.
The fact that he sometimes is cryptic in his responses is a little baffling to me as each of us will immediately apply our own agenda to the words we read. I don't think his response to Survivor should point us in any direction other than we don't know what they have decided to do when it comes to the PR's. He answered a question with a question that is somewhat deflecting the original question. JMHO
Greed, plain and simple.
Power and the fact that they can work the system could be a minor factor that is caused by ego in a very macho industry, where people who can beat the system are looked at like kings.
I don’t think an equity partner is needed. They will have plenty of cash from any licensing or non-equity partnerships.
Doc,
A licensing deal is a right to use the product for an indication. In this case it means the right to use it in combination with the licensee’s product. It is not a manufacturing license. NWBO would still be the manufacturer and they would provide the product to the licensee, in this case the vaccines. They would retain 100% control of the manufacturing and QC process. They would likely also retain a very high percentage of the profits from the sales of the vaccines. There’s plenty of examples of these deal structures online.
I assume they will go back to the company they used throughout the trial, which is one of the biggest shipping/freight forwarders companies in the world, with a division that handles every possible medical/medicine/tissue transportation.
I support it, but doesn't necessarily expect it.
I agree with that sentiment. As I don’t trade, I am not concerned about the dull and safe periods. My hope is just that we see some patient accumulation and that the shorts will be forced to add to their short position to keep it down. We do not know where the trades are coming from, so speculating on new big investors getting in is futile. For all I know it could just be intra company trading, created by algorithms to flush out day traders and nervous retail.
Not sure I’ve got ‘forever’ as my timeline, but I am not worried about whether it’s this week or in 3-4 months. We know what the process is that they are taking on, so we know/feel that the outcome we want will happen. As for the panic posts when we are down a few pennies, I simply don’t care about that. I haven’t traded in this stock for well over a year and have no intention of starting again. I have no interest in what happens daily as I have no influence on the SP. i think that when day traders get involved and the SP moves up, it’s inevitable that they take profits and when they do, it’s easier for the shorts to move the price down. It seems fairly coordinated.
Do you think the daily SP matters in the long run? I don't. I don;t believe in the thought that upon approval we will se a ?X appreciation. I think the SP will end up at the same level whether it is at $0.65 or $1 when news hits. I am super bullish on NWBO and completely baffled at the low SP, until you take the lawsuit and manipulation/shorting into consideration. I really don't think that the MM's will let the SP move up prior to approval if they can help it. That could mean more damages if they lose the case. Will they let it move if NWBO PR approval of submission? Probably a little, but it is in their best interest to keep it low for as long as they can. I also don't think that the MM's give a damn about the HF's who are shorting. They are a nice tool in their hard work to keep the price down, but they are not important and could be collateral damage when MM's no longer need to keep the price low.
Everyone in here has their own timelines and goals for their investment in NWBO. I thought I would share mine for the very few people on this board who might be interested.
I don't have a timeline. I really don't worry about when these things will happen. I am in this stock for the long haul. When I have funds to add, I wait for dips in the price, but any level from $0.50 to $0.80 is fine with me for adding. I last added at $0.55, but should we get back to $0.60 I might add some more, even though I have way to high a percentage in this company.
I am waiting for the following things to happen:
Approval. Not approval of submission, which I would prefer them not to PR, but MHRA approval of the MAA.
Licensing deal. I think this is the inevitable move post approval. They could have done this a year ago before the Journal article, but the deal would be a lot better waiting for approval. Any licensing deal would have billions (yes plural) up front payments, which would enable them to start all the phase III trials they want to in other indications and for Direct.
Uplisting. There's really no reason to do an uplisting until after they have entered into licensing agreements. The licensing agreements will be completely detached from the market cap and SP. I don't think any licensing deal will have much equity involved. BP doesn't need to own NWBO, they just need exclusivity in whatever cancer indications would best support their own current drug portfolio.
For those worried about what the exact share price would be at each level, I have no clue. I do know that each of these three events will validate NWBO and move the market cap and SP closer to a true valuation, regardless of the shorts and manipulators. I don't know if they will be gone at that time, but the general market will not be as much affected by them as it is now.
I feel very confident in the long run that investors will be rewarded. I agree with those who says that NWBO is severely undervalued based on what we know. The problem is that the market doesn't know that. I am fine with flying under the radar until approval.
As for the lawsuit, I think it will only affect the SP until we get approval. At that time, the defendants will have less of an incentive to keep the SP artificially low. I am not taking the lawsuit into any consideration when it comes to my investment narrative in NWBO. I think that for those who have the opportunity to wait, the lawsuit might have contributed to the SP being where it is today and until we get approval.
I am aware that most posters here could care less about my opinion and that's fine with me. This is just my investment narrative and each investor likely has a different narrative.
JMHO
Those will always happen when a share price has gone up over a short period of time. At that time, and based on past experience in this stock, traders will be easily scared into taking profit, so beneficial for those who are trying to hold down price or covering to do this. Nothing out of the unusual activity.
Who knows. Not worried about daily movement, just trends. We ended yesterday at high of the day, so hardly a short attack in my opinion.
Speculating about who is behind the trading we see if futile. For all we know, this could be one short position covering and another short position trying to keep it down. Speculating that this is one or a few bigger investors getting in or smaller institutions buying is meaningless unless you actually know. Only thing we can see is an upward trend and much less resistance from the short positions trying to hold it down.
Unless you have access to each short positions number, the number of actual legal shorts will just be a guess. I am not in that guessing game, but it is definitely higher than what is reported.
I am 100 % certain that the short position is a decent amount higher than the reported short position, because of the relaxed reporting requirements. I don’t know how much higher, but definitely higher. Those are not illegal shorts, just under/not reported positions.