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Started positions in AVXL based on potential buyout, IOVA also based on potential buyout and COGT based on advice from a friend.
Agree 100% that the week of 10/26-30 would be best time for release if they are done with their analysis. It is historically a good week for the markets and it would eliminate the chances of leaks if they have to wait until just before SNO. The key is whether they can have the TLD ready in time.
The week before the election, is a historical good period for the markets and LL have to submit slides and presentation to SNO before Nov.2. If they are ready with their analysis, they might not have a choice but to release the TLD during week of Oct. 26-30. If they feel that the risk of leaks from the submission to SNO is minimal or if they are not ready to release TLD at that time, I agree that the period of November 9-19 is a perfect time. I also think that the longer the time from TLD being ready to be released and the actual release of TLD is critical, as leaks are very hard to avoid over time.
There's a wide range of dates mentioned here. LL will present at SNO on November 20. It is almost consensus that the TLD will come before that date. Other than that, she has to submit her slides and presentation to SNO on November 2, which, if not released before that, could lead to leaks IMHO. We have the shitshow on November 3, which means anytime around that date would, according to some people, be suicidal to release TLD as the news would be drowned out. The stock market in general, based on historical data leading up to an election, should see a dip next week, only to go up in the week leading into the election. (All historical data should be taken with a grain of salt as it relates to historical data and could be different due to different circumstances). I doubt the news will come next week, but see a chance of them feeling they have to release it before submission of info to SNO (They might not be able to as this is a process that might not have been finished in time). I think we have two likely timeframes, The week of October 26-30 or the period between Nov. 9-19. JMHO
Sojo, you don't think that the fact that we are no longer listed, will dampen the potential rise in SP after TLD?
The 30 days of SP above a dollar is for re-listing at NASDAQ. I seems to remember someone mentioning that LP wanted to go onto NYSE and not NAS when it would be eligible. I do not know what the listing requirements are for NYSE, so I have no idea of a timeline to get back to being listed of NYSE is the target.
I know that, but if we are on OTC when TLD comes out, the SP will not reach it's potential because of lack of institutional investors. I am not short term focused, so I don't care when we get listed again. I am just cautious in regard to the SP after TLD. I am in it for the long haul, so these timing issues are not any worry for me. We will end up at a nice SP, whether that will be in 1 month, 3 months or 12 months, I am patient enough to wait.
I am well aware of all that. I have done extensive research. I was merely looking at how other stocks have done upon positive TLD. AND those companies have not been on OTC, but on NASDAQ. I understand that this is a potential SOC revolution in up to 80% of all cancers (which I think is the percentage that solid tumor cancers represent), but it is not enough that the people following the company knows that. There will be limited institutional investment into the stock, which would count for the $5-10 range that people expect upon positive TLD.
I sure hope I am wrong, as this is the most important company I have ever invested in. I would not be surprised if I am wrong, but I just think that there's too many hurdles to clear to get to $5 on TLD. Regardless, I am not selling anytime before we reach $10 (and then only 15-20% of my position), so I hope you are all right in your positive assessment of the SP in the near future. The longer it takes for TLD, while stock is climbing, the higher the SP will be on positive TLD, but I see $2 before TLD and around $3 after TLD.
I do think that once we get DCVax-L and Direct to market, it could end up with a MC of over $100B, but likely will have been bought out before that.
Ever since a friend of mine told me about the company and after having done some research, I have been pretty firm on not reducing my position until the $10 mark. Nothing that has happened over the last couple of months have made me change that stance. It could change in the future, but I doubt it. I look at this investment as a chance of building wealth as opposed to a chance of making a quick buck.
Hope you are right.
Glad I am not the only one thinking we should not let our emotions get ahead of the long game. Again, hoping I am dead wrong and that we get higher SP than I think we will.
I understand all you guys' optimism, regarding SP after TLD. I was looking at other companies and the SP movement on good TLD, and it didn't seem to be as drastic as people are predicting for this company. Don't get me wrong, I am not selling if we keep moving up and we keep getting positive news, including good TLD, Completion of partial production facilities and RA approvals. My first selling will be around $10 SP.
I think in regard to RA approval, if the UK really moves fast, we could see a compassionate use approval by FDA and EU, like they have had in the UK for years now. That could give the SP another significant bump as it would generate income and move the company towards profitability earlier than expected.
I think a realistic road map is $2-3 on TLD. $8-10 on approval. A lot higher on confirmation of usage for other cancers. Look at the road Novocure took. It wasn't until past approval that it really took off, when commercialization was proven.
Correct me if I am wrong, as I am definitely not an investment tax expert. The gift carries a gift tax based on the value of the time the shares/options are gifted? Let's say there was bad news and the share price is going to tank, for this example let's assume it goes to $0.20. That doesn't, not sure, eliminate the gift tax at the time of the gift. So why would she make the gift, that incurs a tax expense, unless she was pretty certain that the results were good? I could be wrong, but if my assumptions are right, the gift should mean that she is very comfortable that the news are good.
They bought Flaskworks and raised extra capital to speed up production facilities.
Champagne or dogfood.
Welcome and good luck.
That could be one explanation.
It has to be a leak.
As long as the SP keeps going up before news, the better the bump might be on the news.
Rough day for MRC. CVM up and NWBO up. Poor guy. Not his week.
The top quote infers that the SAP and Statisticians work will be done simultaneously, so yes, I would deduct that if they are unblinded, the SAP process has also been completed. I am not a biopharma specialist, but the fact that they are in a self-imposed quiet period, would infer that they have been unblinded.
Agree 100%
Wouldn't it be a huge plus if the endpoints were changed without the Company's involvement?
BTW, how impressive is the upward move today with limited volume? Looks like some of the market makers are staying away. Could be because of the uncertain immediate future has made it difficult to find a level they feel comfortable trading at.
Which should mean, as a few have already mentioned, that Company is currently unblinded.
which was the only funding I was referring to. I am a complete newbie in this company, as I started my position in July around 0.31. My only contribution to any dialogue on this board has to be in regard to any corporate events happening after that time and/or any legalities as I am a former corporate counsel. I understand that people have suffered through many years with this company, an experience that I have thankfully avoided. With that in mind, I am not burdened in my view of any of the negative history, so I do think that my perspective at times can be different from that of any investor who has been here for many years.
As my answer to Poor states, I was only referring to the last round of funding. I understand that previously they might have raised money with too big a dilution. That being said, for the last many years (pre-2018) the company would have been a huge gamble for any lender and if they needed a large amount of capital, it might have been impossible to find a partner who would have made that capital available.
I agree on the face of your statement. I do not know how much capital that have been raised since then, but if your statement is true, that is a significant dilution. I was only referring to the last round of funding.
When I was running an online gaming company, we entered into a partnership with a competitor that needed funding. We got 10% interest on our investment as well as a small equity share in the company. This was around 2006, when the economy was booming and there was plenty of cash floating around. The risky nature of a business makes it harder to obtain financing at decent rates. Biopharma and Gaming are not the safest industries to invest in.
I would like to see an example of a partnership that comes with financing being a better deal than offering a 10-15% (Based on timing of the warrant extension timeline, the SP was around 0.90-0.93) premium on the warrants.
That number is exactly why you see so many people who will short small biopharma's as well as all the 'experts' online predicting failure. If you are right 97% of the time, you will look like an investment guru. The key is for them to mention as many companies they can as that will improve their overall success rate. LC et al, are probably working from that perspective.
I am certain that getting financing independently of a partnership will benefit all the shareholders. Partnerships involving financing comes at a much greater cost than raising the $12M via warrants. Please let's not be shortsighted and focus all our attention on short term SP gains and keep it on the long term goals. Whether the SP ends in 1.20 today or not is not important in the big picture. If results are there, we will all make a lot of money in the end.
Picked up 5k at $0.97 earlier. Had buys in at 0.95 and 0.93 too, but obviously not getting them. Will do this trifecta every day until price stabilizes over $1.
Do you guys/girls think the news will come prior to SNO submission of slides on 11/2? I don't have any knowledge about how these submissions are kept and disseminated, but it feels like there would be too great a chance for leaks after these have been submitted.
It's not like they lost the shares. They raised cash, so they now have funds in return for the added shares. It's really a close to net zero sum game. But you do your best to make this a horrible thing.
Your loss.....
I am 100% long. I am not selling any of my shares until $10. I am just patient and have an understanding that short term share holder value is likely not on top of their priorities.
I understand the advantage of being on NASDAQ, but if anything, LP and Co. have proved in recent times that they are patient. It will come soon enough, but to speculate that they will spend the time and energy short term on relisting is not realistic. Their focus is not on shareholder value short term, but to get this treatment off the ground commercially. The added bonus of NASDAQ will come in due time.
They are not going to deal with the relisting short term. They are focused on the immediate future which I doubt include NASDAQ relisting.