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They don’t. But if they commit to spend a large amount ($100M+ as an example if upfront payment was $500M) that would move the share price along with the fact they now had lots of capital in their coffers.
I just think that at present time (and likely for at least the next 2 years) there's zero chance of a straight out takeover/purchase/acquisition of NWBO. Could there be a buy out claus in an exclusive licensing deal with a BP? Maybe, I doubt it, but it would have to be contingent on NWBO reaching a market cap many many times higher than where we currently are. JMHO
If they get a decent upfront payment from a deal with a BP, I truly hope that they will issue a statement to the fact that: "We plan to use 'X' amount of the cash from this deal to initiate a buyback plan. We 'plan' to keep the share purchase going as long as the share price is below ??? or we plan to keep the share purchase going as long as the share price remain severely undervalued. I would think the amount would be 20%ish of the upfront cash infusion. By qualifying the buyback plan, they would only have to buy back shares up to a certain share price, which would set a future floor for the short term share price. Just an idea and something that they could do to get the initial upward move turbo charged. JMHO
Well said, Captain.
Only thing I disagree on is that we will have new leadership anytime in the near to medium term future. LP is not going to step down for the foreseeable future. I wouldn't want her to. NWBO will become an owner of IP that will for the most part be licensed to BP. I can't think of anyone more suited for running such a company. She will not have to deal with trials and the science. She will be negotiating the deals, which is right up her alley. She knows more about DCVax-L, Direct and the entire platform than anyone they could bring onboard. She knows the value and potential. She masterfully jumped in and bought Flaskworks within a very short time of having discovered the product. She has years of experience in deal making. The perfect candidate to continue to create value for NWBO. This is her legacy and she deserves to take it as far as she wants to.
ATL, LOVE your post.
In an ideal world where NWBO was flush with cash to get these trial funded, I could agree with you. The money and the future is in combination with a checkpoint inhibitor. I think eventually, even in your scenario though a little later, every DCVax-L vaccine will be administered with a checkpoint inhibitor and Hiltonol. That's where the money is and that is the best and fastest way to get a cure for cancer or at least to a manageble stage.
From an organizational perspective, NWBO is in no way, shape or form able to get this done in a timely manner for as many cancer indications as a BP partner. As you mentioned, just the fact that the partner will use DCVax-L for every treatment doesn't mean we can't retain the majority of the profits for the sale of DCVax-L.
I am not disagreeing that your way is not possibly the right way if you look at this from a theory perspective, but in the real world, NWBO needs a partner, both for the trials and for the execution of the business plan post approval. We need the biggest BP in oncology that has already seen the fruits of their sponsored trial. We need Merck. The good thing about this is that Merck needs us more. They need us to extend Keytruda's patent life and they need us to make Keytruda a viable option for the cancer indications Keytruda is currently not approved for. Even if they had to pay an exhuberant amount of money for this exclusivity, it will pale in comparison to the money they stand to make from added years and added annual revenue of Keytruda. ($21B in sales last year). I don't even care if NWBO gives them an tiny equity stake or option to recoup their upfront investment in the form of revenue split until recouped. This might make it an easier sell to their shareholders when shelling out Billions for their exclusive right.
I am sure they would like to get their hands on some of this cash, but I still see a BP being the sponsor and paying for the various trials.
The only trials I think NWBO will ever pay for in the future are those involving Direct (and even Direct might be getting a licensing deal with a BP).
Every DCVax-L trial in the future will be carried out by a partner who has a checkpoint inhibitor. There will be plenty of takers, but if we see just one partner for the combination trials they are in talks about, that partner will be the favorite for an exclusive agreement for use of DCVax-L with a checkpoint inhibitor.
I have always felt that Merck was the partner for GBM, since they pushed out Bristol Meyers for Merck. I could not imagine that Merck does not have a deal (or the framework in place in case of a successful trial) for exclusive use of DCVax-L in GBM before paying/sponsoring the current trial at UCLA.
JMHO
I would assume that the trials will be started by a BP partner and likely in the US. JMHO
Someone mentioned that NWBO still have 9 Million series C shares, not yet sold. That's 225 million shares. The same person said that the company could use them for an equity partner. Nobody is talking about an acquisition of Oncovir, the maker of Hiltonol, which everyone seems certain will be administered with DCVax-L in all future vaccines. Not sure what the revenue/value of Oncovir is currently, but I haven't heard any talk about how we build that business relationship. Maybe NWBO is keeping quiet in order not to create a bidding war, like it looks like Merck is doing with NWBO/DCVax-L. In both cases, I am sure that people know and NWBO could be waiting for the value of the series C shares reached a value that would be high enough to use them to acquire Oncovir.
Just a thought.
Gary,
The amount I am speaking of is for exclusivity for certain indications, maybe even all, not to run trials. The value it will have to a company with a checkpoint inhibitor (Keytruda) is in the 100's of billions. They would then have to run trials in whatever format required to show DCVax-L works with their product in all the indications they need it for. This will extend the patent life for their product. Any other BP, who does not get exclusive rights will be left in the cold. Hence the value in gambling with a decent upfront amount to secure this exclusivity.
That's a very good question, that I do not possess the knowledge to answer, but if any of the industry people on here would venture a guess, I would also be happy to know the answer.
My views were based on deals I have seen in the industry. Granted those deals were with early stage product, where DCVax-L is very late stage.
https://news.bms.com/news/partnering/2018/Bristol-Myers-Squibb-and-Nektar-Therapeutics-Announce-Global-Development--Commercialization-Collaboration-for-Nektars-CD122-biased-Agonist-NKTR-214/default.aspx
This is just one example. This one has an added equity share involved, but prior to announcement Nektars MC was around $2B, which is where we were earlier. Funny thing is that this was a deal for combination with Opdivo. This deal was not completely exclusive and they got $1B upfront. The combination didn't work out and the deal was later terminated.
You could be right that they would keep all profits and just get paid for exclusivity.
I just don't see any need for LP to sell equity and I also don't see a need for a BP to own NWBO. The BP needs control and exclusivity of DCVax-L, NWBO ownership means little. Also, why would LP agree to equity partnership at these SP levels. Just doesn't make sense to me.
I agree with that. I do, however, think they are not worried about the PPS or market value of NWBO in the short term. That will correct itself when NWBO gets the upfront payment for the partnership.
What I think a partnership will look like.
Upfront payment (very large amount. I have seen deals with $1-7B. I think we will be in the high end, which will take care of NWBO's valuation and SP)
Milestones:
Flaskworks approval (if they don't have it by the time DCVax-L gets approved)
Each approved use in other cancer indications
Each approved use in other forms of diseases
I think that unless there's significant equity stake taken by the partner, the future profit sharing from the sale of DCVax-L will be NWBO (50-70% and partner (30-50%)
Again, that is just my opinion, based on partnership deals I have seen in the past within pharmaceutical industry.
I don't think we are far off with Flaskworks. I also would be somewhat ok with them not waiting for Flaskworks as that is the least important of the two to have as a milestone as opposed to waiting for approval.
My only thought is that you thought I was mentioning an equity partnership. I was referring to a non-equity partnership or at most a tiny equity share. This is based on you mentioning the share price, which in my scenario has no influence on the deal.
Not sure what you are disagreeing with.
It's obviously the 'safe' way to do it with milestones for approval etc. I just think they are too close and have too much faith in their discussions with MHRA that they would leave a lot of money on the table by not waiting. I think they might have already executed the framework for a post approval deal, but I could be wrong.
I agree, Hoff, but why get into a pissing match with people who's sole purpose is to try to build their ego and could care less about the underlying information?
Some observations and opinions.
I do not think we will see a partnership(s) agreement until we get approved and get Flaskworks approved. We are too close not to wait. The value of both Flaskworks and Approval will be much greater then than now. Yes, we could add those as milestones in a deal signed now, but those milestone payments would be a fraction of the value now as opposed to post approval for both.
It will be interesting to see if we have one or multiple partners in future combination trials. I expect that we should hear about those trial later this year. If we only have one partner, it could point to an exclusive deal post approvals (DCVax-L and Flaskworks). The framework for a future partnership could already have been agreed to pending the approvals. It is not hard to imagine making contingencies in such a framework to start combination trials before the partnership agreement is signed. I would be surprised if there were an announcement of combination trials that included an upfront payment to NWBO, but it would lead me to belive that such a payment would be an advance for the future partnership, made to stabilize the financial situation at NWBO until post approvals.
JMHO
Don't want to take sides in your little discussion, but I don't see anything in that paragraph that talks about capacity in Sawston. I see that they need "only 40 clean rooms" to get to 1000 a month capacity. The only could infer that they will easily have that available when entering back into a contract with CRL or another CDMO. I could be wrong.
Their hit piece this time didn't even manage to move the SP down 1%. They are losing their effectiveness. Shorting under the cover of a hit piece doesn;t seem to have the same influence. I do like the added volume that came in. Could have cost them a little more shares than the average 75k shares they have added daily over the last month in the reported legal shorts column. That number is likely not even half of the actually legal shares shorted as the reporting requirements are laxed, based on what I hear from people far more experienced in shorting.
I would say that it’s more than likely they expect to have this done in this quarter, based on the mention in the last Q. Not a certainty though.
The rumor is dealing with a specific defendant and a specific "outsider" I am not going to name anyone out of respect to those who have told me and out of respect to the people that supposedly got the letter, as these could be false rumors. I debated whether posting it in the first place, but with the talk of Virtu's letter, I decided to mention it.
I have not seen anything specifically related to the NWBO defendants or any other outsiders. It is pretty much impossible to know this until they file a response and then have the case submitted to the DOJ. That being said, there are rumors (not from this MB) that at least one other defendant and one other person outside the defendants have received a letter. The veracity of these rumors are hard to determine. I can only say that based on the information I have obtained, the rumors are IN MY OPINION likely true. You can take that for what it's worth.
If one of the other defendants disclose this in their next quarterly statement, the second letter could also be true.
Maybe he left because he received a Wells Letter? Rumor is that people not directly employed by one of the 7 defendants have received them.
That’s what I was referring to. No valid arguments against the product.
Do we know if anyone has received one of these beauties in relation to their involvement with NWBO?
There has literally not been one valid bear argument since the publication in JAMA. Not one. The timeline issues are not arguments against the product nor it's chances to get approved. They have failed missearbly in terms of their arguments. These arguments have absolutely zero to do with the current SP. They are just coincidental with the manipulation going on.
Sounds like you almost completely wasted two days in Copenhagen when there's so many better things to do and better places to eat.
The truth?
I could be wrong, but I think the results are being held until DCVax-L is approved. Will have much bigger effect at that time.JMHO
There could be some small correlation as approval takes away the slight uncertainty that DCVax-L would not be approved. I don't think this is much of an issue, but could be holding up some future trials. Obviously Merck went ahead with the UCLA combo trial many years ago, so they didn't want to be left behind.
In regard to Merck, what are the chances they ventured into this trial as the sponsor without having at least a non-exclusive deal in place for the future of the combination treatment? They have expended quite a bit of funds/product for this trial.JMHO
Very positive that there's a dialogue going on with respect to future combo trials. Last time I checked, it takes two sides for this, which means that they are having conversations with other parties, most likely BP's.
Just a few thoughts on investing in NWBO. Fact is that currently the share price sit around $0.50.
I think it is futile when looking at a stock to look back. The fact that we hit $2.5 and $2 on different occasions are of very little importance. What is important is looking at the future and where the stock could possibly go.
Most people would agree that the science is there. Most people also agree that the science has value.
The fact that the current share price is the result of serious suppression is important as it will have an influence on where the SP will go in the future. I think that as long as this suppression goes on, it will have a damping effect on the speed with which the SP will move in a positive direction once we get positive news. I do think it will move, as it is my opinion that the move on positive news will be an event that will allow the defendants to let it run and have little influence on the damage awards in the lawsuit. This is just my opinion.
I really don't think that even the negative share holders would disagree that the SP could/should be at least $0.75 within the next 60 days should we get news of an accepted submission. That's a 50% short term profit on any investment that is made today. Everyone would jump head first into any other company if I told them that there's a likelihood that the stock price would go up 50% in the next 60ish days. Apple at $270!!! Tesla at $375!!!
I do iunderstand that a lot of people who are invested have a avg purchase price above $0.75. We all buy stocks at the wrong time on certain occassions. I am not saying that these investments won't have a positive result in the long run, but that is of less importance than the opportunity we are looking at today.
Even if the past is a situation of opportunities missed by not selling at $2-2.50 or anywhere in between that and where we are at today, I think the future is bright if you look at where we are today.
Just my perspective and obviously just my opinion.
You are absolutely right, EX. He must be a moron to think you are anything but a minimum wage employee at some HF, being fed a script to post on here. I finally found something I can agree with you on.
You are not wrong.
You are entitled to your opinion, but I don’t think he owns a single share.
LOL, he is 100% involved in shorting. He is panic posting because their attempt to move the SP down to a 52 week low is running into trouble.
So based on our favorite short, FeMike, we could see mid 0.40's. That should tell you that they are not done trying. Are they going to be successful? I have no clue, but they will be trying.