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Layman;s terms your selling 355 million shares for 285M.
That case is a joke and would have been tossed out of any US court. You’ve shown more ‘defamation’ in your posts against Crux as some some of the defendants in that case. The only complaint even worth listening to was the one against the former employee.
Crux Investors is in the UK btw.
Easy amigo. FKA drillitbaby.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=159438479
I was laughin all the way to the bank with my $97 profit on this one. Rolled it into CPPMF and TGB. This ones still on my radar but I ain’t upset with my decision.
No. I’m thinking Rio has cracked the Russian and Chinese code of obtaining scandium from tailings. RUSAL always knew it but was hesitant to market it to North America for obvious reasons. SCY is an intriguing trade but the big players are making it clear that they will control the scandium market.
Recent Rio Tinto and RUSAL news on scandium. SCY is the best bet for a scandium pure play.
Find a new envelope!
I see what you did, (30% Cu increase so ~30% market cap increase) but that's not correct.
Every additional penny they get for Cu goes straight to the bottom line. Per the FS its ~$153M per 10% of base Cu price or $0.275.
In other words after tax 7.5% NPV is more like $1.2B at todays Cu. I don't know that you want to assume $3.63/lb is a LOM price, but the outlook is sure looking good.
Dumped half my shares at break even today. I should have the rest gone tomorrow. There’s better copper plays right now.
That’s kinda why I was asking. All I found in the FS was vague reference to Ce and La. Not the heavies that LM posted about.
It did. Thanks.
That's how it was written in that article. Is REE better?
How many REM's does Niocorp have?
Have you considered lowering the discount rate? I could run the numbers but I’m curious what you come up with. If phase 1 proves itself in line or better than the studies, it may be more prudent to use a rate as low as 5 or 6%.
Nothing I say, post, or do should ever be considered financial advice. I may be holding a long, short or no position. I am NOT or NEVER have I been compensated to post on here or anywhere and all my posts are for entertainment purposes only.
I took the fully diluted share count of 266M and the post financing after tax NPV of $730MM. I added $220M to NPV as the original FS used $2.75/lb Cu pricing and $220MM is the approximate added value of a $3.15/lb Cu price. Leaving the discount at 7.5% this results in $3.57/share.
This is NOT my target or prediction. Just what the numbers say. The $2.75lb Cu price was conservative from the get go and as the process proves itself the discount rate may be conservative too. I’ve seen other companies use 5.5-6.
Curious how you came up with 3.60? That’s almost exactly what I came up with and I wonder if our assumptions were the same.
Old news already. Just a result of the ongoing Chinese and Aussie dispute. Cu supply is diverse enough to withstand it and potentially benefit. Chinas just throwing weight around now.
Why don't you post an actual evaluation on how you come up with these prices? Is that how much you think it will fall after the 10:1 reverse split to .70/share?
Looks like this morning’s update made sure the bottom is in. Long ways to go but at least the solvency issue is taken care of, barring further disaster.
I’m trying to figure out the definition of a hundred million ha! Did the dude misspeak or are we really suppose to believe someone’s spent $100m for this with nothing yet to show all while the company’s been reliant on Lind?
Has anyone asked Jim if he can provide some clarity to that comment?
You keep posting this. The .50 target was BEFORE the share count doubled. That’s a pipe dream now.
Isn’t the real story what the company decides to do with all the funds they’ve received from warrants this Q? Pay the debtors or pay off the CEO loans?
The Company conJnues to plan ongoing monthly increasing ore producJon rates with producJon of 5000tpd expected to be achieved during Q1 2021 rather than year end. Despite the slower ramp-up, the change to iniJally smaller early stope sizes is expected to provide the benefit of an increased number of stopes earlier in the ramp-up which contributes toward de-risking production.
I don't understand what you're talking about. The company's authorized share count is unlimited. They still have to provide notice to investors if they intend an at the market offering. Did I miss something?
The share price sucks because ramp up is taking longer than expected and they're accumulating more debt.
I have no clue either but you’re best served following the money, IMO. Excelsior first gained institutional investment via greenstone in 2014 iirc. One you didn’t mention, Nevada copper, had equity investment by Pala way back in 2010. No clue about ucore and I’ve only perused scandium international and I think they are just an example that the latent demand of scandium simply isn’t what either company has led investors to believe. Another one I’m invested in, Polymet, has been fully funded by Glencore for years. I think Jim Sims actually mentioned them before as an example of a company that’s been caught up in permitting issues forever.
Fact is most junior miners go nowhere. Those that do are predominantly gold/silver explorations that get bought out.
NioCorp’s a cool company for the hobbyist trader. Such a unique shareholder base gives it a high floor. Fun time for those content making a grand or so on a trade. What’s the worst that can happen? I get ‘caught’ holding when a big announcement happens?
Do they need to file amendments?
I think they are indecipherable because they are f'd up. Sims is straight forward and I guess Shaw is probably correct but the directors make no sense.
I'll pick on Ms. Guerrero again. Says she acquired 30k shares via exercising .4697 (.62 CAD) options. Also says she now holds 130k shares. She didn't even have options at that price and didn't own any shares prior so it's obviously wrong. Al te other dir's are the same. Interesting thing is that these are the same numbers on the Shaw filing. You can also see that the footnote on all the dir's filings is wrong as it shows the .84 CAD price which only aligns with the recently awarded options not te .4697.
Directors were awarded options on Friday for sure but im throwing a guess that none of them exercised.
Shah seems to be the only one that exercised outright. The directors all immediately exchanged 10% of their new awards for shares via cheaper options.
That exchange option was probably part of their compensation. Look at the initial exercise date in the filings. Ain’t positive or negative just biz.
Your reload is generally right. I didn’t look through them all but I’m sure they are the same. Sims and Guerrero were the top ones on Edgar so that’s what I looked at. The Sims filing is the clearest. He bought 300k shares at .35 from his options and subsequently “sold” 165k exercised options back to the company at .64 to pay for it. Easy way for him to convert options to shares with nothing out of pocket.
Guerrero was awarded 300k options at the price last week, exercised 30k via a reload, and converted 30k of old options to common shares.
Only thing I’m a bit unsure of is that the employees conversion was cash neutral while the non-employees was beneficial ownership neutral, but that’s likely all part of the comp plans.
All this a long winded way to say don’t read much into it. All part of the game. Employees, directors acting in their best interest based on compensation they were given. Proxy will prolly provide a bit more clarity.
Here's some back of the napkin acid consumption calculations: Life of Mine acid consumption is estimated at 9lbs per lb of Cu produced. Year 1 is a little less at 7.93.
At 7500 tons of acid storage, this provides enough acid to produce a little less than 2M pounds Cu. (7500*2000/7.93 = 1.89M)
Using full production for the initial wellfield of 25M lbs, this means that acid storage capacity is less than one month's supply at full production.
This doesn't account for the acid required to be in the ground at any given time.
The FS uses an even more conservative estimate of a mere 14 days acid supply.
So.......until a reliable daily/weekly source of acid is secured, small scale testing is the only thing that makes economic sense. Sucks but it is what it is at this point. An update sure would be nice though.
Are you hinting at a reverse split? It should be expected at this point and not viewed negatively, but there’s no way $1 happens otherwise. After tax NPV for the open pit and underground is less than a billion at $3 copper and there’s some 1.4 billion shares or whatever.
I love copper right now but I’m wishing I put more in taseko. Cu will continue to rally. I don’t think the $4/lb predictions are unrealistic, but if it doesn’t hold that number for long then NC is just to early in the ramp up to take advantage of it.
Very good.
The 10k confirms your 1.5 estimate later on: The Company anticipates that it may need to raise $9.5 million to $10.3 million, to continue planned operations for the next twelve months focused on
financing and detailed engineering efforts related to the Elk Creek Project. This estimate is net of C$1.5 million received from warrant exercises subsequent to
June 30, 2020.
The warrants expiring through 9/14 would have brought 1.2C so it's a good bet they were all exercised. If the CEO is content with extending his loan deadlines and the price stays above .60 or so then it's a good bet that the warrants alone can maintain the status quo for the next year.
Oddly enough the average price of the warrants remaining as of 6/30 is almost exactly the 200 mda, so that's still the entry target IMO.
Hot off the press from Argus:
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2141820-us-acid-supply-expected-to-increase-in-2021
The acid shortage was real and it seems to me there were probably much larger consumers ahead of Excelsior in line.
Don't forget that the acid is critical to the entire operation. Other miners can continue to stockpile ore and start/stop the process much easier. The acid is critical to the entire operation with in situ. Given the problems they've already had starting wells and the likely lengthy period to get "push/pull" going, risking running out of acid, losing whats in the ground, and ramping back up is the last thing you want.
That being said I will be extremely dissappointed if we don't get an update in the next two weeks as to how far they've progressed with the initial wells that are pumping.
I think this is very fair criticism, but I’ll throw out a couple ideas somewhat in their support.
First, obviously there were startup issues and blame to go around for them. I don’t blame anyone for not predicting a pandemic so I won’t blame excelsior for the lack of restarting upon the renovations. I think a fair question to the company would be what we’re the acid tank levels at when the updates were complete? If they were low or empty it would make perfect sense not to start right back up, and during a ramp up without concerns for acid supply I wouldn’t have expected the company to keep the tanks full.
Second, how much are the other cos in AZ and NV paying for acid? That piece of information certainly has to be part of the cost benefit analysis too.
Again, you have good points. I recently opened a position here and am looking to add more. If nothing else I feel comfortable riding the coattails of Greenstone and Triple Flag. NPV may change if things don’t quite turn out as expected but they are unlikely to let it fail. Plus with the conservative copper estimates in the FS investors can afford some expense increases. We should really be looking at the +10% analysis for Cu prices at a minimum when looking at NPV.
How many here will continue to hold if financing doesn’t land by the AGM?
Tried. Found a pic someone posted on Twitter of a bunch of RBC price targets. Not sure how to judge the reliability of twitter screen grabs. Hence my request for a direct source.
Rational debate on the interwebz? On a board where any contrarian is certain to be shorting? I want what you’re smokin.
It’s a tale as old as time. I’m convinced it’s a big part of why Yahoo! shut down there boards. I always liked how they at least had thread topics.
Exactly my thoughts. You have to keep in mind the near doubling of shares outstanding with any price assumption but the smart money already said .15 was a good buy. It will bounce to that soon barring catastrophic events.
I appreciate the welcome, thank you. It ain’t my first rodeo. Junior miners are a dime a dozen. This one piqued my interest quite some time ago as a unique US company. I still lean towards it being a trading opportunity but am open to learning.