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Hey Deano,
glad to hear you are still around, hope you are doing well!
I see a lot of you longs are still in this, me too
Today is the first time in a while that we are getting manipulation on good news.... we've been through this before, we are hardened. We'll hit 15 this year... we all know it. (and that could be a conservative estimate)
well, I was a galid fool and that's what brought me in
of course without Bero in the pipeline as a guarantee I would have never went all in and gambled the way I did
I am getting lucky in some aspects because I knew nothing of 9930 when I went all in. I still feel the fool
and yet we are still above 7 with Japan coming
I am still long dammit and I can't complain when I'm still up 50%
I mean I know we are down.... but it feels nice to have the $8.20 backstop sitting there.
With the non-dilutive financing I am no longer worried. Remember how this summer and fall felt? Now when we drop we hit maybe $8, which is already a double for most of us longs.... I'm no longer worried!
I think we won.... shorts are dead
this week in general has me thinking we will never see 7's again and will likely finish the year in double digits (maybe we touch 7 briefly today)
if we get good galid data we may never go below double digits again
it's been a tough ride, but congrats to all that held on through that dilution and the galid delays!
I am declaring victory even if I made some mistakes. Can't complain when you triple in 8 months even if it should have been at least a 5x year for me.
(I sold NVAX, zoom, twitter, GM to get this and each one of those has at least doubled, plus a bunch of others that out performed this, but I like where I am sitting now with BCRX)
Merry Bio-Christmas to all!
I understood the same from the call.... we are getting the galid update and the Japan approval in Dec
you deserve this longs! It was a rough ride, thanks for keeping my spirit up through those rough times!
2021 will be a nice year.... staying long
I have to give Stonehouse his props on this roll out, especially with how he had the funding agreement set up and ready to go once the approval went through. Nice job hiring the sales people, doing market and patient research etc
Prior to this I was down on Stonehouse for the delays with galid. Now I am thinking this is not his fault, and even better, maybe he has a galid. card up his sleeve with that will surprise us. I trust him now.
While so far I feel unlucky with galid, I have to admit 9930 was not even on my radar when I bought this.
I usually like a two pronged attack in my stock picks
in April 2020 I was buying an Orlo guarantee with a galid lottery pick
In Dec 2020 I am buying an even better Orlo guarantee and an even better 9930 lottery pick (and I still have one of those scratch off lottery tickets with galid.... we will be revealing it soon and can win something, but not the lottery)
staying long
happy for us longs!
and there is more to come, imagine if get that galid PR now?
still holding.... haven't flipped it once.
the shorts are going to need a new pair of shorts
serves them right
hope so.... glad for today's bounce back either way!
I'll buy your book.....
I will read it when I'm not skiing. That's my plan for early retirement... maybe some part time charity work.
I think we will close strong... not sure if we hit 7.5, but I expect us to recover some of today's losses
you seem to be right, it's already approaching green
After holding this since April I see no reason to flip now. We still have that whole galid trial and Japan. Market is still absorbing what the Orlo approval means.
and who knows, maybe we get some good PR on the galid front soon?
I no longer expect exponential returns in stock price based on the part 1 trial, but it could easily be worth another 20% increase.
As a person that has incurred gray hair due to the constant short attack on BCRX, I am very happy we don't have to worry about another dilution.
Yes they may have diluted our future profits, but now we know they can afford to develop 9930. I am OK with today's move unless someone with more finance experience can teach me why it was bad for investors.
Ha Ha... I like this from the post below:
Looks like the longs will be having a nice Bio-Christmas!!
agree, if we get to double digits then I can no longer complain about the performance
So that first 'cash payment' doesn't count as an earning on the financial report? (it would be bad for tax reasons, but good for investors if the company shows profitability)
We still have the Japan approval that comes with cash earnings!
I agree.... this would actually complicate a buyout
if 9930 gets close to approval then all bets are off
Congrats longs....no more dilutions
So the first $125 million is considered an earning right?
If so, we are now a profitable company and I think we'll stay that way!
Japan approval timing?
Do we expect this next business day(Monday)? Thought I remember reading somewhere that this was a formality once the FDA approval went through and this was basically all that was left to trigger it.
Hey Deano... I share your sentiment (although I am hoping to just hit 20)
When the profits roll in we will continue to rise.... ironically enough I am a gluten for punishment and am still holding
I am sure a lot of longs are taking this opportunity to sell. We didn't quite see that short squeeze, but at least we know this company will soon have legit business fundamentals to drive a steady rise
I'll do that beer at $50 if that happens while I am still in this with 10's of thousands of shares
we still have 9930 as a potential rocket.... but I am mostly giving up on galid unless we get some surprising big grant when Biden takes over
congrats all.... not gonna lie, I was worried after hours!
I have been clinging onto tens of thousands of shares for a long time.
I sold Zoom and NVAX to get this (just to name a few, which both are up more than 500% since I made the big move). Buying this and not keeping my balanced portfolio was a clear and confirmed mistake on my part, but at least we should all make some solid gains in the coming months.
Thank god that at least the HAE backup plan panned out even if my galid dreams are dead!
holy crap, this thing is bouncing all over the place AH, swings of almost a dollar
right now I can't even buy a whopper value meal when I sell a share.
I want to at least be able to order a footlong cold cut combo with a cookie and soup from Subway. I've given up on the fillet mignon at this point.
Run Forest, Run!
edited message... I did the math wrong
the point I was trying to make is that they will be profitable by the middle of next year and maybe sooner
skyrocket in afterhours?
did we get an upgrade or something?
what is happening after hours? Just hit the 4.60's
this describes my exact situation.... I am feeling lucky with the factor D stuff, wasn't even on my radar
the backstop has kicked in and we still have a couple of X-factors
the direction is good.... I suppose this will continue for a couple of weeks. Low to mid 5's by the end of November? All HAE driven.
And we are still supposed to get a galid PR in the next few weeks. I no longer know what to expect there.
Either way, anyone who stays long enough for the HAE money to start coming in will make a profit.
I am not completely giving up hope on this outcome... I have no expectations of anything past 10 in next few months, but on the bright side, I think we will pass 5 soon and stay there this time. HAE driven.
nice to see us bounce back again after an even better vaccine PR... again showing galid is becoming less important in our price fluctuations
kind of playing it by ear now
Your near term projections are actually my pipe dream....I'd take 20 in a heart beat!
Even the companies that are having successful Covid drugs aren't skyrocketing, like Gilead or even bioNtech
agreed.... and it would be a great sequence of events if that were to happen after the HAE rise, a buyout starting from a PPS of 8 would be very lucrative for us all!
think I am finally back to green
HAE was my fallback reason for buying this and the HAE insurance policy is finally kicking in.... Galid is hardly a factor now
we'll get a spike now on HAE, and a long term rise with the associated earnings. It will act like a normal stock next year with gains driven by actual (increasing) profits. It will soon be a stock to buy based upon fundamentals.
but we still have a few wild cards left for rockets.... (Galid, 9930, buyout)
overall a nice week after the vaccine undercut our galid
hopefully we hit 5 next week and go above 8 in December with the approval
one last comment
I was worried about today and considered flipping my shares yesterday
I believe today was our last hurdle before all the good news coming in Dec.
I am pleasantly surprised that we bounced back within the same trading day. I think it's all up from here.
yes, phase 1 is about safety, but for galid they already had a successful phase 1 trial or I wouldn't have bought so much.
the original intent of this study was determine optimal dosing. For some reason they used phase 1 and 2 terminology back in April.
happy for the bounce back in PPS. The price feels less and less driven by galid. I feel they bungled galid. and that is why we are still in the 4's. HAE is driving our gains now.
I agree with your thinking....
I'll add that to me he changed the definition of 'phase 1' in this context to be more about safety than efficacy. This is the traditional definition and a step backwards. They already had the safety data. We want to see that it's effective. Originally this study goal was supposed to determine dosing based upon efficacy.
volume was solid, not spectacular, but better than recent weeks
always good to go up when everything else is tanking
this is exactly why I wasn't giddy over a little bump in PPS yesterday
pushed back 2 days right?
wonder if this is related to something about to happen in Japan?