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AGN has given me a renewed "breath of hope"..
Will look to enter back in next week.
B. O. B.
I'm out, this stock just isn't sexy anymore (I'm my eyes). So many other biotechs out there. Good luck to everyone and thank you all for the great discussions on this board.
Peace, onwards and upwards!
B. O. B.
The CEO said before the interim data report that if the interim data was strong enough, they would be able to apply for EUA authorization immediately. Now after the interim data is out, he's telling us that we must wait until the final data report before seeking EUA.
This tells me one thing load and clear: The current data isn't that strong.
You can put makeup on a pig..
B. O. B.
Down 8% on the Canadian Stock Exchange now after the webinar.
B. O. B.
They "day traders" are not liking this webinar by the looks of the stock price.
That's for sure what they did.
You sure have a way with words M$, maybe the syndicate should hire you to write press releases for them, it would be their first conflict of interest.
B. O. B.
It was arguably the most important news release to date from the company, and it read like it was written on the back of a napkin in a Starbucks café. Vague on detail, no actual data, and was a tad confusing.
B. O. B.
The objective of the Phase 2b part of the trial is to investigate multiple endpoints and identify those that show the best efficacy. This was anticipated and was accounted for by the WHO clinical trial guidelines.
^CM explained this point in the last proactive interview
Additionally, after the Company finalized its investigational new drug application (IND), the U.S. FDA (FDA), updated its guidance on COVID-19 clinical trials stating a preference for a respiratory failure-based endpoint as an alternative to the WHO score as the primary efficacy endpoint for the Phase 3 portion of the trial.
^Also explained in the last Proactive video
Finally, due to the complexity of clinical trials, one endpoint can show efficacy while other endpoints do not. For example, in Algernon’s interim data, by day 15, there was a trend towards fewer patients requiring mechanical ventilation in the high dose Ifenprodil treatment arm, as compared to patients who were in the untreated arm of the study, even though all patients had similar mean WHO and NEWS scores.
^This point was clearly stated in the interim data report.
My Biggest concern here is why should a company need to send out a news release explaining /clarifying it's last news release? Doesn't seem very professional.
B. O. B.
Woke up this morning to find fluffy snow on the ground and fluffy news from AGN, what gives?
https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item?bid=Z-C:AGN-3007013&symbol=AGN®ion=C
3 minutes of my day wasted reading that.
B. O. B.
The market hasn't actually seen any data, no numbers, nothing. Zipo.
All we got was their word, telling us they have trending data. Should we take their word for it?
Also, the word "signal" is a powerful one in biotech. How come it wasn't used once in the news release? That word come out of the CEO's mouth afterwards in a proactive interview. Hmm..
I'm losing faith.
B. O. B.
My biggest concern with Algernon
In my honest opinion, what is really weighing in on Algernon's stock price is the rollout of multiple vaccines showing 95% efficacy.
In March & April, a faint whisper of a drug for covid-19 made a stock shoot up 100%. There were no vaccines and scientists were saying it would take years before any rollout. Well, the times sure have changed!
Our CEO can repeat/remind us till he's blue in the face that there's still a need for therapeutics, the market doesn't care.
In my opinion, Algernon would have been better off sticking to only IPF/chronic cough and ignoring covid all together. The animal data for that is very convincing and the company doesn't have much competition, ifenprodil could be a lead drug for IPF.
Instead, shareholders got cheap financing and more dilution to bankroll a phase 2 covid trial. And now we face more cheap financing and more dilution to finance a phase 3 covid trial.
Dilution, dilution, cheap paper, dilution.
Ask yourselves this question : Is this drug SEXY enough to warrant a phase 3 trail for covid?
The (little, summary of) data we just received suggests MAYBE? I for one am not that excited after reading beyond the title of that news release. After the phase 3 trial is complete and many more shares outstanding, how much of our population will be vaccinated? How many other therapeutic options will there be? Uncertain indeed.
The company's share structure and investors trust has has been infected by this heinous virus, and Algernon would have been better off without it.
Just my 2 cents.
B. O. B.
"Good news is bad news and bad news is worse." - Money $hot
This one sentence sums up Algernon
B. O. B.
Positive trending data from a drug used on covid19, from a tiny company traded on the cse/otc. Could we ask for anything better than that?!
Great work Algernon!
B. O. B.
It's trading at .314 euro which is .38 USD and .49 cad..
B. O. B.
In the Philippines ***
New WSJ article states it'll take up to 5 years to fully vaccinate the nation. Algernon already has networking there and ifenprodil has been studied there as well.
I smell a market opening up.
Good luck to all this week!
B. O. B.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccines-are-coming-but-they-wont-end-covid-19-anytime-soon-11607864417?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/PdISJuWJzN
Chris did put emphasis on that the interim data will be released "the 3rd week in December", not next week, so maybe December 21 or 22?
B.O.B.
"I believe ifenprodil will decrease the severity and duration of a covid19 infection".
CM today during the interview.
Highest weekly close since April 27th.
Congrats longs.
B. O. B.
I'd say the data must be good. Some big buyers coming in. This isn't retail buying.
B. O. B.
Getting close to seeing some actual data. B. O. B. is back!
B. O. B.
Hello all, I see enrollment is picking up, great sign!
B. O. B.
Thanks, they will likely need to do a site screening before recruiting starts, so I'd expect news on sites to come first, at least that's how AGNPF did it..
Does this company have any trial sites lined up? I can't seem to find any information on that..
Thanks.
Building a nice base at this level..
B. O. B.
Hello all, I just bought in this morning on the dip. This is getting crazy cheap. Been watching it for a while now. RVV must hold .25, .245 at the lowest to keep daily uptrend. I think it will, looks like a morning flush on retail.
I'm also long AGN/PF and a moderator over on that board. Both plays look promising.
B. O. B.
Where there's smoke, there's fire.. Smoki is on fire!
B. O. B.
The arrow in this chart is not indicative to the direction of the anticipated stock price, it's just to show the date of the symmetrical triangle apex. I believe we breakout to the upside mid November in anticipation of a positive data readout.
Just my opinion.
B. O. B.
Great news yesterday and today, looking great here.
B. O. B.
Thanks LS5. It's just speculation on my part. My point is I don't expect any fireworks until maybe after closing of the "last patient dosed". That news will bring the gamblers in and more eyes on the stock in anticipation of a positive readout. It was great to see all the sights posted yesterday on clinicaltrials.gov, and great to see some buying this morning, but we are months away from any significant news and the market knows this, so expect much of the same for the time being.
B. O. B.
Here's how I *think* ALGERNON will play out:
As much of a debate as technical analysis is, especially in penny stocks, there are still a few things to note in my personal opinion. 1, AGN (CAD) bounced off it's macro uptrend line for the year yesterday at .24 cents cad. See below.
Point 2, in technical analysis, "symmetrical triangle formations" are common before significant news, and I believe we are in the midst of forming one here. See below:
Now to note, the apex of this triangle ends around November 15th. The current rate of enrollment suggests we receive news of "50% enrolled" end of September, in which we will receive an estimated last patient enrolled *mid* November, putting a Dara readout late December/early January.
Now my OPINION on CJM's famed "Point of Inflection". We have yet to see it. The market knows this is going to be months so capital is being used elsewhere for the time being. I fully expect we trade between .25 and .35 CAD til mid November, and my idea suggests that the apex of the symmetrical triangle will lead into a speculative breakout mid November/early December before a data readout. This will be the "point of inflection" our CEO talks about.
It all come down to the data. The market obviously doesn't trust the repurposed drug model, a likely reason why BELLUS was leagues ahead in valuation, and it's going to take very positive data to give us the market cap we all want. This is all my opinion, just trying to spark the think tank a little more.
B. O. B.
Actually, it worked out perfectly, I sold 60% of you position for a 16% loss, put it all into a leveraged VIX ETF and made 26% profit today. Best I've booked all year. Talk about lucky!
Anyways, I haven't given up on Algernon, it's just that I believe I will have ample amount of time this fall to buy it back at a good price before a data readout. I also believe IPF will be the real icing on the cake here.
For the time being I'm still going to monitor the board and keep up to date.
Good luck to all my friends, may Dr. Williams fill shareholders pockets.
B. O. B.
I've greatly reduced my position here. I wish you all the best of luck and I hope sincerely that this works and gives you all massive gains in the future.
I for one am through with investing in penny stocks, I for now plan on investing in companies that generate revenue rather than trade on speculation. Penny stocks are trading vehicles only and I will use them as such. I'm still holding some AGN but my focus is elsewhere. I'm also starting to hedge via the VIX as the overall market is in a melt up stage.
I will be removing myself from the MOD squadron, so my position is up for grabs.
Best of luck to all longs and Algernon.
B. O. B.
Lucky to have data by Christmas? Vaccination news might overshadow by then. IPF might be the only this saving this company after all.
Just typing my mind, or "venting" as they say..
B. O. B.
At this rate, we'll be well into December before we get a data readout. SMH
https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item?bid=Z-C:AGN-2958866&symbol=AGN®ion=C
Fluff news this morning, only 50 patients enrolled, 1/3rd for total pool. Their rate of enrollment has gone down, we were expecting 75th patient enrolled this week. Very disappointing to say the least.
B. O. B.
This has been an extremely exhausting stock to own, and I've only been around since March, yawn...
Anyways, by my math, we should get news next week on 50% enrolled, data in November.
Have a great weekend everyone.
B. O. B.