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You guys need to get a reality check.
Companies get valued on valuation metrics. I love the positivity but get to reality. The market hasnt dropped 500% in 10 months. This companies stock has. People invested at 35c and 60c and it went to 6c. Is that satisfactory?
The CEO pre-IPO said they would make $30M+ USD in 2019. Yes, 2019!
The company wont even do that this year.
Get REAL guys. Start listening to the industry and analysts.
we already did yesterday! thats why this has gone nuts
Juiceworks Exhibits - they are huge
Big bag holders have waited long enough - including me. Been prepared to watch management and see if they can actually deliver but this has been exceptionally disappointing to say the least.
Their MD&A showed that they are so far behind the 8 ball, so late on delivery, behind on revenues, missing outputs, and comm's has been terrible.
I sympathise with other investors like me and pat those that have made money on the dips and back up.
But seeing guys like Clonefailure make ridiculous statements and run away and hide is case and point. Nothing more to say.
https://www.exhibitoronline.com/news/article.asp?ID=20649 - This is getting plastered everywhere and all FREE because of how big and credible Juiceworks is. This deal is going to be brilliant
Correct.....oh but wait, i dont know about the market in California either remember....
good riddance.
Big change from mid April when I was seeing the statement "i'm all in and long on this one".
Seriously, don't make statements like that they exit stage left.
GR
Morning guys,
Without trying to sound too technical, I did a good review overnight and had an analyst in Australia who I revert to when wanting to get *soft* recommendations done just by what can be seen skimming through fundamentals on companies during DD.
After sending a list of bullet points and highlights including revenue metrics this person came back to me with a BUY recommendation (of course because of the revenues) but even if this contract was only worth $4M per year and no other revenue was achieved at all by the company and in this environment - something in the $1.20-$1.50 range.
Big range yes - but as I said, the disclaimer is this is just *soft* and not after a deep dive.
We should be careful about promoting prices that are too high - lets try be real but even from here, we are at a 2x - anything under $1 is a buy all day long and we are looking at a 64/65c open today.
Am ok if you share this as well
I wish you well to HD and hope you get your $4 one day my friend.
GLTA
Maybe true HD...but back to my point.
$10M-ish raised at $0.35
$6M-ish raised at $0.60
Average of $0.48 I guess based on that. Pre-IPO Shareholders that have been in this thing for 2+ years (like me).
400% less then average in a year. And based on valuation metrics, it ain’t getting back to any price like it under the helm of the amateurs running this thing.
Let’s just keep this going, get it back to 20c and give a lot of people the comfort to pound out and move on.
Godspeed!
How is this article just came out!
https://equity.guru/2020/05/20/predictmedix-pmed-c-inks-deal-install-covid-19-mass-screening-tech/
Brilliant article. This is $1++ and quickly.
Sona went to $2.50 on fluff and wind. No revenues. PMED is revenues and cashflow + now!
www.getsafeentry.com
Here is a link to what Juiceworks have just launched today on their product offering with Predictmedix - this is going to make serious revenue www.getsafeentry.com
Executing so much in such a short people of time. And this is just the beginning.
1] more sales coming
2] biggest Ai study in impairment about to be done in a month
3] Hindalco and Tech Mahindra ready to implement (billion dollar companies)
4] Marketing about to start (never. been marketed or spent a $ on marketing yet)
Agree 100% HD. but what an absolute dilution killer - SDC has been a failure of an acquisition. Something clearly has gone wrong there.
Skater, hoodie fools thinking they can roll in cash because they know thugs. I mean, am I wrong?
They should just cancel the deal, cancel all the shares that sit in escrow based on future revenues that were marked against the deal not happening because the deal is not going to work. Its clear by them 'impairing' the deal in the last MD&A.
Take 10M shares off the registry. Just doing that alone will make the price pop.
Another lost partnership Chuck. I spoke to an Op's manager at Cookies - Not even on the top 25 list for flower
easy double right there HD!
Today gives me good confidence that the 20c CDN can actually get there....although, seeing everything in double digit increases and NGW flat zero gain and behind in the US shows there are big sellers armed and ready.
HD is right, this level is a good buying level for those wanting an easy double if numbers are good.
Great post Harpo.
Market Cap = Valuation metric multiples
Right now multiples are 1.2 - 1.5x
Lets hope we get there guys.
Well im in the group on a chat and I can tell you simply why:
Because going on the rated metrics of valuations now in the space, NGW doing $30-$35M per year at an EBITDA of max 30-40% is approx $40-$45M - its simple.
If you take analyst opinions and I have said this before (go and look at Vivienne of Cowan in NY), rerating was inevitable.
Take that and the fact that management. have done major stuff ups for so long now, sophisticated and non emotional investors see where their exit is.
GLTA
Im glad some of us are bullish HD.
I personally know of a consortium of about 50 shareholders that will be dumping as soon as it even gets close to being in the black. And big position holders. Approx. 15M shares in that group alone.
I just hope that NGW find a way to market themselves and communicate properly - the last year has been terrible on that front.
My concern is the average and liquidity - very poor when it comes to cannabis stocks. But like you say, time will tell - i'll be happy once/if it gets to 20c CDN.
Looking forward to seeing if they are able to show they are getting their $3.5M CDN per month as promised early last year. Fingers are crossed.
Hi Guys,
The thing that I am bullish on is seeing GTI hitting $100M in Q1 for the first time of any US issuer. If we can see that have wonders on the US side, maybe we might just see this move over to all US issuers including NXGWF.
I agree with Chuck on one part though.....you will see a big chunk (probably a good 75M shares worth) start crunching this stock at anywhere from 15c USD - 25c USD. Just too many have lost faith in this companies management. And then you see management have also granted themselves options all the way down too so expect to see this have an impact.
35c CDN is where they did most of their financing at as you can see form their MD&A.
My estimate it will take another 12 months minimum to chew through all of the negative sentiment and get a clean run.
Fingers crossed it follows in the same path of a GTI and continues to show big growth each quarter.
GLTA
Hi Guys - What we are seeing is some big anticipation for this week and you will see people who have missed the boat chase this to get filled. Up 15% in the US today yes on low volume but only a matter of time.
I am praying that we only see from here revenue/contract NR's because once that happens, we are completely measured by what real businesses are measured on - PROFIT and +EBITDA
Lets get this board cranking....invite all you know
Ive built a big position in this - i cant see this below $1 for much longer. The fact they are partnered with Hindalco ($250B market cap) company is just insane. That contract alone could be $15-$20M per year with a GP of 90%.
RE: PMED article just out - Pharma meets Tech
Probably the most interesting article I have reason PMED yet - unpaid as well.
Pharma meets Tech. I love this headline
https://equity.guru/2020/05/15/predictmedix-pharma-monopoly-meets-tech-growth/?utm_source=Equity.Guru&utm_campaign=d40d5a129c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_05_15_08_35&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6a0553f4da-d40d5a129c-349077308
This one will be rocking anytime soon I feel. Picked it up from someone very sophisticated in the space.
2019?
Hi Chuck,
My guess is they could be doing an NGW branded packwoods product just like MedMen or Cookies. If its not that then being a supplier of flower for sure as well - but in a small way. Maybe as a top up supplier is my best bet.
Id rather see them do something big with big quantities not just craft. They need big sales not just small bits and pieces.
Hi Guys,
Packwoods major supplier is definitely NOT Next Green Wave. Speaking to the main people at Cookies and also the new Biz dev director at MedMen, they get their source flower from another major supplier.
Even then, Packwoods market share is not big. Its craft - doesnt go very far outside of select LA boutiques.
Hi Harpo
Just FYI, this is what NGW are getting for their product (disclosed in their statements released last week);
- Selling product for for $4.4 per gm
- 1 pound = 454 gms
- 1 pound = $1997.6 per pound is their sell price
Harpo! Finally someone with some common sense and with no rose coloured glasses!
Hi Guys,
The more you read into that report yesterday, the more it proves that there is a major issue with the SDC and NGW team. Whoever appeared and then disappeared a while back on the board and said there was a rift in the SDC camp and some of the members had been told to leave has merit. I did some digging into SDC and its clear that two of their members is no longer connected to Ryan Lange - look at their instagrams and also the SDC accounts. Ryan is completely on his own.
Its really disappointing to me as if this worked, we would be in a much better position. But when you have cowboys thinking they are corporate - this is what happens. Ryan needs to go and paint his walls with pennies instead of his floors - I agree Strat, get his money to a quality CEO.
Hi Chuck
From my review, the SDC transaction is deemed worthless. You don't just make a transaction impaired if you have faith in it.
This deal was meant to have had 8 brands activated by mid year last year from what the announcements dated way back in early 2019 state. So clearly, something has gone wrong and we aren't being told transparently. I guess the infighting/ disagreement in SDC and some of them getting sacked as someone put it a few weeks back on this board probably has some truth to it.
Either SDC lied about what their revenue forecast was or NGW hasn't made the relationship work with SDC. Simple from what you read its black and white.
My goodness - what on earth has happened? What a disaster piece...
comments:
> Just as an FYI, this time last year during the same reporting period the company had a high of 63c $78M during same quoting period
> Period is Year Ended Dec 31, 2019 USD
> The company achieved $285k in revenue (royalty of $101k - 50% Loki, 30% King Louie, 50% Carey Hart)
> reported a $16.2M NET LOSS
> the recorded loss in 2019 is $0.11 per share loss v 2018 of $0.3 per share
> as at Dec 31
- only $1.2M in cash - ouch
- $1.4M in inventory (THC, CBD assets)
- $524k in biological assets (material being grown)
- Selling for 4.4 per gm
- 1 pound = 454 gms
- 1 pound = $1997.6 per pound is their sell price
- $5.9M loss on ops - wow
so all in all, they AREN'T selling flower at a premium just like I said from my research
- This is very worrying (extract from the report);
The Company’s continuing operations are dependent upon its ability to raise capital and generate cash flows. At December 31, 2019, the Company had working capital of $3,051,936 revenues of $285,953 and had an accumulated deficit of $19,405,838. These circumstances indicate the existence of material uncertainty that casts significant doubt as to the Company’s ability to meet its business plans and its obligations as they become due, and accordingly, the appropriateness of the use of the accounting principles applicable to a going concern
- So it looks like they have rolled over with SDC acquisition too. If you read the below, they have now put this as an impaired assets - ouch If you look at what their expected SDC sales would have been based on what they paid for SDC, thats clear that is NOT happening. Read the extract word for word - there you have it directly from the company.
On April 1, 2019, the Company acquired 100% of SDC Ventures, LLC (“SDC”) (the “Acquisition”). SDC has eight leading cannabis brands with 45 CBD and THC products. Management determined that the acquisition did not have the inputs and processes capable of producing outputs necessary to meet the definition of a business as defined by IFRS 3. Accordingly, the acquisition was accounted for as a sharebased payment, whereby the Company allocated the fair value of the consideration paid to the assets acquired. Any contingent consideration payable will be recorded when paid. The Company acquired all of the membership interests and other equity interests in SDC for aggregate consideration of $6,578,881, comprised of $600,000 cash, $764,117 of transaction costs paid with 1,567,342 common shares and 19,361,296 common shares of the Company with a fair value of $5,214,764.
In 2019 an impairment of $6,578,879 was recorded for intangible assets resulting from the SDC acquisition.
The milestones, and resulting share issuances, were as follows: - $5,000,000 at the end of the period beginning one-hundred and twenty (120) days after Closing (“Year 1”) on achieving Year 1 Net Sales of $12,000,000 (“Year 1 Net Sales”) and adjusted downwards by the pro-rata amount of the Year 1 Net Sales if such Year 1 Net Sales are between $9,000,000 and $12,000,000 (as adjusted, the “Year 1 Sales Payment”), to be satisfied by the issuance of the common shares each at a deemed price of $1 per share. - $5,000,000 at the end of the twelve (12) month period immediately following Year 1 (“Year 2”) on achieving Year 2 Net Sales of $30,000,000 (the “Year 2 Net Sales”), adjusted downwards by the pro-rata amount of the Year 2 Net Sales if such amount is between $22,500,000 and $30,000,000; At the year ended December 31, 2019, Management estimated, based on the current revenues of SDC and the projection for the oncoming years, that the probability to achieve the milestones outlined above was improbable
Say what you want guys, but this whole business about the revenues being poor because of Track and trace being late is a lame excuse. They had the ability to sell MILLIONS of units like they stated of SDC products (CBD lines) and they haven't. Of the 8 brands, they launched 4 MAX. We are in May 2020 and STILL the Extraction site isn't completed - what on earth has happened there? Failed execution.
What a mess. There was no way i would have expected to see such a bad report - i wasn't expecting much to be honest and was trying to take some of HD's optimism, but this is bottom of the barrel.
Even if they were to do $4.5M a quarter, the SP is rated at 15c CDN MAX
Only a matter of time till this is washed. GL
HD - i don't think its a fact of having rose coloured glasses on at all. I like the optimistic nature as a shareholder. I'm the same with nearly all of my investments in different verticals too.
One thing I have learnt though is to not have the blindfold pulled over my eyes by lacklustre management teams - if you cant execute, move on - the public company world is not for you. Its a simple fact.
I dissected this $650k figure they announced - my question is how much profit was in that figure though? Being a Carey Hart line, whats his royalty share on that? Till thats known, I cant measure it so cant take it into account.
GL for friday!
Hi HD,
The Company stated openly in an announcement and also on a conference call in late Q3 last year that they were Track and Trace compliant. So i'm unsure as to where that has come from. Its very easy to find out too as to when they certification date was. Metrc or Trellis is who the big players in California use and this is something that has to be disclosed. If Q4 sucks, then it is a let down and they have not executed at a satisfactory level at all.
On a valuation note - i'm sorry to break your val metric parade but in California now, the BEST case multiple is 1.5X sales. And thats at the TOP end.
Soon they will be valued on EBITDA and not sales - so anyone that isn't EBITDA +'ve will be valued accordingly. The best analyst in the sector IMO is Viviane Azer from Cowan - her reports and publications are so on point and so far ahead of the game, you should follow her. Its an M&A dream right now - companies being stolen for pennies in the dollar purely on the fact that they arent performing and will never get back to their valuations based on what the valuation metrics are in the space. For NGW to be back to 50c CDN (currently 7c), the company is going to have to be doing $50M revenue in a calendar year/ $12.5M per quarter/ $4M per month+
Now do I believe they can get to this number? No. And most know my reasons why - i look at execution statements and the measurement metrics to justify valuation potential when sales haven't done a full 12 month cycle.
GLTA
Hi Chuck - well I guess we will see Friday as Craig and HD said. The test on that is what the flower sales line item shows - $1.5M USD per month in flower sales is what they promised on their call in late 2019 as a bare minimum and at $2,000 per pound. If they are saying they are selling at ‘record’ prices, then we should expect north of that figure per month and this doesn’t include any oils or SDC products (which should be at least $1M per month)
With all that taken into account, we should be expecting revenues of $2.5M USD per month MINIMUM or $7.5M USD for the quarter. If this isn’t achieved, they’ve failed again and then we’ll see another let down.
Fingers crossed for $7.5M USD for the quarter! GLTA
Chuck - like I’ve said before, I can see passion and clearly a shareholder that’s seeing red probably like all of us, but Friday is a key milestone. I tend to agree with some of the members of this board - revenues, financials and transparency there will be a good first test.
I’m wanting to see the $1.5M USD in flower sales they projected at full bloom and sales cycle. If they hit or exceed that, it’s a tick going forward.
Craig is right, a hot shot is going to cost $$$ and needed to be done months ago. Look at iAnthus yesterday, what that board showed with the way it dealt with a problem was pure class and in my eyes went about it the right way. Whatever the result of Friday, this company won’t be in the same management structure in the short term - we have already seen a lot disappear. It’s only a matter of time but as long as this gets back to post IPO levels I’ll and a lot of others will be happy
Really looking forward to seeing some transparency on the financials - this is definitely a good start.
Just to recap for everyone here based on what was told by the company last year;
- Facility A on full rotation and with all stock sold at a $2,000 USD premium per pound should equal $4.5M USD per quarter
- Any revenues generated from SDC product lines or Facility C is in addition to this
Looking back on my notes from last year in a call;
- all SDC brands would be in the marketplace by late Q3/early Q4 of 2019 (this hasn't happened)
- Facility C was to be up and running by early Q3 (this hasn't happened)
I guess what we are looking to see is that the company is generating $4.5M USD per quarter at the very minimum based on $2,000 per pound USD. It would also be good to see what their cash burn is on the operations side to see if this is making them money and what their price per pound break even is. I know in Arizona for indoor, the BE on just op's cost only is $950 per pound. Of course corporate costs then get factored on a consolidated basis.
GL
Man - Buhlz acts like he is a) maybe Mike himself or b) one of Mike's relatives or friends.
You couldn't be any further from being accurate.
SMH