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FYI, I just got my old alias set up so I'll be posting as "TraderRich" again from now on.
You need to look at the June contract which is right around $21. You're looking at the April contract which expires at the end of the day. It is odd to see the expiring contract be driven all the way to negative...usually it continues to move on low volume with the new contract. Odd things going on indeed though.
It almost looks as though some ETF's are being propped up for some reason, but of course that would be illegal, right? I'm sure there's a logical reason we just aren't privy to. ;P
The new contract dropped from almost $27 to below $22 overnight. Probably shorts taking some profits. I've traded the oil futures for around 15 years. Believe me, it doesn't need news to move it. I remember sometime in October of 2013 I took a short scalp that I felt absolutely certain about. Oil ended up running $6 on no news. The only article I found was one that was asking why the hell oil was moving up that high on no news. Of course I was stopped out, but I looked for an article for the next week and found nothing to explain the move. Of course the next day it had completely retraced the move and was at new lows the day after. It's just the nature of the beast.
ERX, XOP, GUSH, and the oil company COP are what I watch that all had nice moves. I own XOP for buy and hold and I'll probably switch from here to ERX. Moves better. :)
Was trading this move. Just got out of my last position here until the RS. I think this pop is done now. I'll be back after the split.
Forget about it. US citizens are not allowed to trade CFD's. Figures.
It's interesting in that it trades like a futures contract, is leveraged, but no contract expiration to worry about. I have to read up more, and I am going to have to open a broker account that trades CFD's, but it might be the answer.
Yeah, there are a couple ETFs I follow that have been moving up as oil was falling. I didn't understand it but I see all of them are down in pre-mkt. Did you happen to check out the link I posted about CFD's, and in particular (USOIL)?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=155123688
Yeah, I've been there. Some only learn through pain.
Just a friendly reminder, any shares of UCO you're holding after the market close today will be diminished by 25x by the market open tomorrow. That means every 100 shares you own tonight will become 4 shares tomorrow.
Eventually, yes, I agree.
Well my friend, if those who wouldn't heed your warnings don't get the lesson now, cut 'em loose and let 'em sink, cause nothing is going to save them.
Check out CFD symbol USOIL. Trades more like a futures contract, but no expiration/rollover as far as I can tell.
Smilin_B & JohnCM, check this out...
For you guys looking for another vehicle to trade oil without the problems incurred with ETF's and the expiration and liquidity issues that come with trading futures, well I think I have a solution, although I don't know anything more than the little I just read...
https://admiralmarkets.com/education/articles/forex-basics/what-is-cfd-trading-contracts-for-difference-explained
For you guys looking for another vehicle to trade oil without the problems incurred with ETF's and the expiration and liquidity issues that come with trading futures, well I think I have a solution, although I don't know anything more than the little I just read...
https://admiralmarkets.com/education/articles/forex-basics/what-is-cfd-trading-contracts-for-difference-explained
Replace "can't" with "won't" and then you're on the way to attaining your answer.
You're a good guy. I used to be as determined as you to get people to listen to reason. At some point I learned that some people will only get their lessons the hard way. So now I say something once or twice then move on. It has already been intimated that I'm a basher. I'll never understand what's going on in the noggins of some human beings.
It's my pleasure. :)
That is the most clearly stated article I have seen on the subject. Thanks very much John!
What he said!!!
Wow, almost 8 years since my last post. Crazy!
OT For the 3 people who have recently added me to their "Follow" list, I just remembered my old alias and have contacted support to help me get set back up on that and let this new one go. The old alias I'll likely be going back to is this guy: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/profilea.aspx?user=81414
This forum is one I used to post on. I may or may not return here to do something similar, at least on occasion.
Take care. :)
BTW, those interested in USO and UCO who are finding themselves unsatisfied with the price movement may want to check out ERX and XOP. They seem to be doing much better than these others and they've already done their reverse splits. Conoco Phillips also has a nice chart, symbol COP. I own a few hundred shares of XOP at the moment.
BTW, those interested in USO and UCO who are finding themselves unsatisfied with the price movement may want to check out ERX and XOP. They seem to be doing much better than these others and they've already done their reverse splits. Conoco Phillips also has a nice chart, symbol COP. I own a few hundred shares of XOP at the moment.
I've held overnight plenty of times and made money, but sleeping is not always easy! Yes, these ETF's are for day and swing trading, not investing. When I initially was looking at USO about a month ago I had intended on holding this for the inevitable rise in the oil price, but have since learned that is not the proper thing to do here.
Yes, a real-time futures feed with my broker.
Yes, but realistically once you get 4 - 5 years out liquidity becomes an obstacle. Beyond that the spread can be multiple dollars and there might not even be a contract available to buy.
That, my friend, is the problem with oil. Oil companies stocks don't necessarily move with the price of oil, and my interest has always been to invest directly in the product, not the producer of it. We are well aware of the problems the ETF's entail and, unless you've got a few million in an account, good luck buying a far out, thinly traded futures contract and sleeping soundly at night.
The best way I know for someone with a few 100k or more in an account to make money in oil is to scalp/swing trade 5 - 10 contracts. If that appeals, and you begin finding success, I am compelled to warn not to set your sights too high as far as profits. I think if someone is content making up to maybe $1000 or less a day then it's probably doable, but I have personal experience with what happens when you consistently pull 5 - 10k... sometimes 20k... a day out of the oil futures market. The way the system is currently set up, eventually someone will notice you that you don't want to have notice you, and you'll find that whatever you were doing that was bringing success won't work anymore.
A free market would certainly be refreshing. It hasn't existed during the time I've been involved in it. I expect that the current administration, once people find out what they are really doing, will let us know if and when that time is coming.
Yeah I get it. I, like probably most people, when I quit trading futures, found this and other oil ETF's thinking I could just put my money into them and hang on. It took about a month, after a move from one contract to the next, to realize that oil ETF's are not investment vehicles. Of course only then did I actually take a look at the prospectus to find what I needed to know. The bottom line is that, other than oil company stocks, there is no "buy and hold" type of investment for oil on the exchanges. You can do it with futures contracts, but have fun getting a price for a December '27 contract and think that you'd be able to sleep at night unless you've got a couple million in your account! lol
I traded oil futures for over a decade. My brave, (and when I type "brave", I mean "DUMB"), days are over! LOL
Something that seems to evade the consciousness of the majority of those trading, well actually, investing in these symbols.
There wasn't a price spike. What happened was one of the charting services I use automatically switched to the June contract from the current May contract. What's interesting there is that the May contract is trading at $20, but the June contract is at 26.63 and it's up over 4% today. As a matter of fact, every contract for the rest of this year is up over a dollar right now, but the current May contract is only up a dime. I have never seen anything like that before. The May contract stops trading on April 21 and switches to the June contract. Will be interesting to see what happens to the $6 difference over the next 3 trading days.
Haven't seen/heard the news yet, but oil futs up $6.50 right now.
Oh the irony! I love when people talk about themselves while they think they're talking about someone else. Very revealing/informative.
:)
UCO is leveraged and USO is not. Doesn't mean USO won't do a split at some point, but it's part of why you saw the leveraged ETFs split or due to split soon.