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Yes, Nature does ResearchSquare (as do a LOT of other journals and non-journals), but the paper is not linked at Nature, the PR does not give any indication where it was submitted, nor do the copies at medrXive or research square tell whether/where it was submitted.
And it is a little hard to find if you try to find it on your own after hearing "interesting paper on leronlimab at ResearchSquare" because leronlimab is not listed as a key word.
These guys play the PR game a lot but are not very good at it, leaving way too much too the imagination, way too many openings for the shorts.
Yep, if cancer treatments pan out, $10 is will be way too low, but we're not even close to that yet. Sky would be the limit. In the meantime, one step at a time. The road to the elimination of doubt is a long one.
cydy website says it has been submitted for peer review...doesn't say where or when...very different from saying that it's coming out in Nature this week. Time from submission to publication normally takes several months, but can be expedited for important papers, especially in prestige journals like Nature.
Got it. Thanks, oNiOnHEAd. So, on another note, I keep hearing about the paper coming out this week in Nature. Is there any reliable link to that info? Last week, I was hearing that it was coming out in NEJM just in time for the webinar last Thursday, which obviously did not happen.
Shorts borrow stock shares from a broker, sell to pocket some $$$, and then (at least in OTC) push the SP down so they can buy it at a discount and return the shares to the broker. The price is driven down by a combination of coordinated PR campaigns to sow doubt and clever (and coordinated) computer trading that moves the price down by a rapid series of progressively lower ask prices. The drop can be stunningly quick and dramatic...like 20% or even more in a matter of minutes. The volume on the drop tends to be small, but then there'll be a burst of high volume trades as the shorters "cover", or buy back shares that they can then return to the broker.
It works like a charm in OTC because there is so much uncermtainty about the companies that it is easy to sow doubt (most often and most effectively by misrepresentation and false stories). Also, because uncertainty is such a huge issue, little bits of good news can drive the price way up, which is a great time to borrow shares to sell to the hoards of eager, news-starved investors. High volume, rapid increase in price will almost invariably be followed by an even more rapid decrease in price. "Oh no! What do they know that I don't? I better sell before the price goes even lower!" What they know is that the price drop was artificial---due to price manipulation---and that because of the doubt sown, they will be able to find suckers who will give away their shares at a huge discount.
And the pattern repeats, day after day. They are able to get away with it because a huge fraction of the volume for CYDY (like 50%) is short trading.
Most OTC companies fail, especially biotechs, which helps make OTC such a good environment for shorts (that and low volume and looser oversight and idealistic & (overly?) optimistic investors). CYDY is showing signs of moving safely out of infancy, but in the meantime DO NOT buy when the price spikes and DO NOT sell on a short-inspired panic. Keep your eye on the science, and take the inevitable wild fluctuations in stride.
The biggest question is whether the science will work out, and it is looking more and more likely that it will. The second biggest question is whether the company can hold everything together long enough to get a revenue stream pumping. They are strapped for cash but have thus far been able to cobble together a few dollars here and a few dollars there to pay bills with...barely. As long as there is doubt about either of these (especially the former), the stock price is bound to fluctuate wildly. otc land is the wild west because there is so much uncertainty about company valuations and a more permissive culture for market manipulation by shorters. Expect tumultuous swings and keep your eye on the science, and pay no attention to the (largely dishonest) gloom-and-dooming that is so rampant among those with interest in seeing the SP drop or the company fail.
If you'd ask me if this stock was safe last week, I'd have been much more hesitant in saying "yes" than I am this week. A couple things changed for me.
First was the curious answer that the CEO (NP) gave in a webinar last week when a listener asked what the greatest challenge for the company would be in the next few months. It wasn't "completing clinical trials" or "getting over the FDA hurdles for approval", it was "manufacturing, manufacturing, manufacturing." In his mind, the trials and approval are a done deal. And he now has been putting his money where his mouth is by taking a big financial hit in exercising stock options early in order to fund manufacturing and he convinced other execs to do likewise. They are serious about producing over a million vials of leronlimab this year, even though they don't have any FDA approvals yet.
But why so confident? NP often does PR appearances that are filled with superlatives and somewhat dodgy descriptions that are rosy but vague enough to give me the impression, "Nice adjectives, but what are you hiding? Let's hear some quantitative, unambiguous details." The new paper gives numbers, and they look phenomenal, with huge reduction in the key inflammation-inducing IL-6 protein, marked increase in CD8 immune cells, and debilitation of the damaging RANTES/CCL5 army (which may be important but is a little more abstract). This gives strong support to the anecdotal stories about clinical effectiveness in seriously ill patients.
Approval of the drug for HIV (in a cocktail) is likely to come soon, and that puts a definite floor on the stock value that is significantly above zero ($2.25?). The CV indication looks more positive today than ever before (which is why SP is relatively high), and a few more pieces of good news will raise the floor significantly (although it may take several weeks or a couple months). In the meantime, expect up and down.
A ceiling? Sky's the limit. A month ago, I would have told you that the chances of $0 are at least as great as the chances of $10. Today, I'd guess that the chances of $10 are MUCH greater than the chances of zero. And the chances of substantially higher than $10 are very real (with successful cancer trials) but a few years down the road still.
Hang on tight and enjoy the ride!
interesting...what was the video discussing & who?
he's funding manufacturing of leronlimab. He is very confident that the demand will be steep and keeping up with it will be difficult. I didn't know what to think of all that until I saw the preprint. I think he's 100% correct. Last chance to load up at prices ~$3.
If it is due to come out in Nature, it will get a lot of exposure.
bioinvestor4, to me the adjectives and verbal descriptions are virtually meaningless, but check out the figures at the bottom. ALL patients had substantial positive changes in several measures of critical blood chemistry...better and clearer than I was imagining, outside the imaginary CIs I was envisioning in my dreams.
agreed. the results are stunning. In the webinar last week, Patterson sounded excited, but I often see scientists get really excited by their own work that turns out to be garbage. This is not garbage...clear, convincing, and (possibly) profoundly significant.
He's pretty sure there'll be a big revenue stream coming soon and is banking on it. Very gutsy. Let's hope he's right. It makes me nervous...they need to get through the trials, which are going slower than initially pitched. GILD showed what some money and political clout can do..rapid approval and a plug from the Prez and a statement from his NIAID director saying that a drug that is neither safe or effective will be the SoC. Amazing.
great time to load up then...suck up all the shares that the shorts need to cover
On the call last week NP sounded VERY confident that approvals were coming soon, "manufacturing, manufacturing, manufacturing" is the big challenge over the next few months. And then he put his money where his mouth is. I think he's sincere in that. Let's hope he's right.
Interesting read...and a very different sotry from the one that B Patterson has been talking about. Yan and Ling are suggesting enhancing RANTES expression early and BP is talking about suppressing it because it triggers IL-6 etc. and ARDS. Much looking forward to the paper on Thursday.
The drop was not due to anything real. Rather, there's a lot of uncertainty about whether the company (and its chemical) have what it takes to be successful. There was a webinar last Thursday that was largely positive but did flame some doubts...most notably slower enrollment in trials than what was originally suggested, and dicey cash shortages. Then, the CEO cashed in on some warrants on Friday without a clear and unambiguous explanation. That all leaves the door open to shorts and day-traders to exploit the ambiguity and uncertainty to drive the price way down via small trades to give the appearance that the company and stock is in real trouble. Then, once the impression of weakness is made, inevitably some investors will get spooked and give up a lot of shares at a low price. It's a high-risk game for the shorts, but with an unproven OTC company like CYDY that has a huge potential upside, the shorts can reliably make a killing week after week.
Also, for me the ambiguities in the data they report are always a concern...e.g., "13/15 patients were removed from ventilators or saw improvement. The other two are too early to tell anything yet" [not a direct quote; just my loose reconstruction based on my impression]. That could mean anything from 1) 0 removed from ventilators, miniscule improvement in some blood chemistry ("this one had better T4, this one had higher O2, this one had lower LDL, etc."...each one improving in some cherry-picked measure), and no improvement in the other two but "it's only been a week", to 2) 12/15 removed from ventilators, one saw reduction of xyz in IL-6 and CCL-5 and measurable reduction in lung inflammation. The first would be NOTHING and the second would be STUNNING. Which is true? A vague presentation usually means the former trying to masquerade as the latter.
remdesivir...placebo but with substantial risk of SAEs
I saw that...great news! Much more optimistic-sounding than last week, 5 days/wk @ 2/day gets us there.
Half enrolled? That's not the story he told in the webinar.."around 30" out of 75 for the mild/moderate group (which is probably NP-speak for something like 25/75, or 1/3) and "approaching 15" out of 390 for the severe group, which I take as 10-12 or about 3%.
NP discussed it in the webinar last week, talking about how critical it was for people to exercise outstanding warrants in order to fund Samsung orders and trials. I immediately thought, "It's gotta start with you, bro'." And it looks like it did.
just got a nice bunch of shares at $2.55.
also not happy with the slow-seeming recruiment for trials and the continued dire straights wgt $$.
I'm with ya', guy.
yup. Greedy, dishonest, harming real people in a callous, cavalier way. Unconscionable.
wow. genius analysis. So quantitative. So honest. So true. Gee, I guess this must be the time to bail out.
golly, such keen insight, compellingly presented
Two things...the "good news" seems more like "spun news," and the CV threat is starting to look more transient than we were led to believe.
NP: "We are bringing some folks that are going to help us with the fundraising actually to manufacture more product. We have quite a bit of vials already...40,000 of them. But we are about to have the manufacturing of 1 million vials to be delivered to us from Samsung which we already started within a year and a half ago because of our success in cancer patients and in HIV."
https://s3.amazonaws.com/content.stockpr.com/cytodyn/files/video/CytoDyn+-+One+America+News+-+OANN+-+04+14+2020.mp4
23% of 12? Something fishy there. Can you cite your (dubious) source?
yeah..."hopefully HIV BLA application by the end of the month." So, we're back to the same story we've been hearing for, what, every month for the past year. The story has changed a little, though, this time it wasn't "in a few days" or "5-10 days", it was "by the end of the month."
I'm nearly convinced that it is not gonna happen--ever.
What's going on with this adjective-heavy, data-lite company?
These PRs are weak. Numbers, not adjectives are what are needed. "Cytodyn says patient with covid-19 exhibited clinical improvement." That sounds incredibly weak. If they don't have good, real numbers, all the talk is counterproductive because it sounds like snake oil.
HCQ works...but not for all patients and not well enough. [Also a new spike in "covid-19 deaths" correlates well with new, more liberal guidance for attributing deaths to covid-19.]
not investors...exvestors.
"due to Leronlimab" How can you know whether it is "due to"? If there is good evidence that it works, then stop the trials and give it to everyone. You can't put bad drugs on the market.
not what he said
Enrollment in the trials is going slower than I would have expected. What's up with that?
"ivermectin": Let's hope it is as devastating to the virus in humans as it is in the petri dish! But it has a ways to go. The FDA really should move fast to streamline testing and approval for these things that have already been approved for safety and have plenty of desperate patients ready for efficacy trials.
Yeah, I think fluff at this point would crash SP, and I'm not at all confident there'll be anything but fluff. I'm really hoping for good results, but I did sell 1/4 of my shares a day or two ago...basically taking out what $$ I've put in and still left with 3/4 shares.
"ceo...needs to...start promting the crap out of leronlimab"
That's what he's been doing for a long, long time. What he needs is specific data showing effectiveness rather than simply a lot of enthusiasm and optimistic-sounding adjectives. Two weeks from now he'll have some data, and I hope and pray it lives up to his hyping.
"understand the science"...like you do? Please enlighten us.