The biggest question is whether the science will work out, and it is looking more and more likely that it will. The second biggest question is whether the company can hold everything together long enough to get a revenue stream pumping. They are strapped for cash but have thus far been able to cobble together a few dollars here and a few dollars there to pay bills with...barely. As long as there is doubt about either of these (especially the former), the stock price is bound to fluctuate wildly. otc land is the wild west because there is so much uncertainty about company valuations and a more permissive culture for market manipulation by shorters. Expect tumultuous swings and keep your eye on the science, and pay no attention to the (largely dishonest) gloom-and-dooming that is so rampant among those with interest in seeing the SP drop or the company fail.
If you'd ask me if this stock was safe last week, I'd have been much more hesitant in saying "yes" than I am this week. A couple things changed for me.
First was the curious answer that the CEO (NP) gave in a webinar last week when a listener asked what the greatest challenge for the company would be in the next few months. It wasn't "completing clinical trials" or "getting over the FDA hurdles for approval", it was "manufacturing, manufacturing, manufacturing." In his mind, the trials and approval are a done deal. And he now has been putting his money where his mouth is by taking a big financial hit in exercising stock options early in order to fund manufacturing and he convinced other execs to do likewise. They are serious about producing over a million vials of leronlimab this year, even though they don't have any FDA approvals yet.
But why so confident? NP often does PR appearances that are filled with superlatives and somewhat dodgy descriptions that are rosy but vague enough to give me the impression, "Nice adjectives, but what are you hiding? Let's hear some quantitative, unambiguous details." The new paper gives numbers, and they look phenomenal, with huge reduction in the key inflammation-inducing IL-6 protein, marked increase in CD8 immune cells, and debilitation of the damaging RANTES/CCL5 army (which may be important but is a little more abstract). This gives strong support to the anecdotal stories about clinical effectiveness in seriously ill patients.
Approval of the drug for HIV (in a cocktail) is likely to come soon, and that puts a definite floor on the stock value that is significantly above zero ($2.25?). The CV indication looks more positive today than ever before (which is why SP is relatively high), and a few more pieces of good news will raise the floor significantly (although it may take several weeks or a couple months). In the meantime, expect up and down.
A ceiling? Sky's the limit. A month ago, I would have told you that the chances of $0 are at least as great as the chances of $10. Today, I'd guess that the chances of $10 are MUCH greater than the chances of zero. And the chances of substantially higher than $10 are very real (with successful cancer trials) but a few years down the road still.
Hang on tight and enjoy the ride!
