*clarification*

Indicator data points are not AS concentrated on the lower end of the chart on downward trends as they are on the higher end of the chart on upward trends.

While I do agree with you, that data points do appear more frequently at the lower end during downward trends then they do in upward trends, I don't know if I would go as far as saying it would be like looking at the current indicators (during this upward trend) upside down.

I ran the indicators during the 00 bear market, looks like using all indicators together would have still given some decent entry levels for short 1-2 month rallies.

My thoughts exactly. That's why in my first post, I mentioned "With these indicators, it's always easier to spot bottoms in an upward trending market... and tops in a downward trending market." In an upward trending market most of the data points are concentrated at the top end of the indicator, making it easy to spot a move to the lower end of the indicator. In a downward trending market most of the data points are concentrated at the bottom end of the indicator, making it easy to spot a move to the higher end of the indicator.

In my humble opinion, I do think this is only a correction. So I will look for these indicators to first enter into over-sold regions and watch for them to start trending upward as they did in previous pullbacks.

You're right, I find it really hard to believe we will come to such a sudden hault. We went down on some pretty SERIOUS volume the last couple of days.

I will surely throw in a tight stop-loss.

However, over the last five years... during this upward trending market... it has been very bullish when all of these indicators agree.



If the market continues its longterm upward trend, once these indicators agree again, they would provide a nice entry level. They have not agreed yet. Only the % of stocks above 50 MA has shown an oversold signal.

Either way, I am just getting my feet wet in this SPX trading. So I will not be committing much capital. Thanks for your insight.

Jiorden

TRADING THE S&P500 THROUGH LEVERAGED ETFS

I'm a newbie to the index trading/investing scene, but here is something I thought up late last night and put up on another board. Thought I'd toss it up on this board seeing as you guys trade in the SPY Index.

........
Date:7/28/2007 4:18:06 AM

It's a Slow Friday night! It's pretty late (4am my time). But I can't sleep. When you're not working, your sleep schedule gets all F'ed up. I just quit my Job... Going back to school in the fall. NYU's MBA Program.

Anyway, in my state of delirium, I decided to take a look at the S&P500... So take what I say with a grain of salt.

Here is an annotated chart:



With these indicators, it's always easier to spot bottoms in an upward trending market... and tops in a downward trending market.

Based on my chart analysis, this is how I plan to trade the S&P500.

I'm prob going to buy some SSO (ETF that performs 2X the S&P500) when the S&P500 hits the 1450 support level. I'm thinking that will happen some time next week. If it bounces off of support and the S&p500 goes to about 1,600... the SSO will give me a 20% return.

I'll make sure to set up a tight stop if the S&P500 breaks, support I'll look to quickly cut my losses, sell SSO and buy the SDS (ETF that shorts the S&P500 2X).... I'd ride that SDS down to about mid 1300's (about a 13% return). At that point, I'd prob sell the SDS and pick up some more SSO. I honestly think the S&P500 will close higher then 1,555 by the end of the year... near 1,600. If so, the SSO will give me about a 37% return.

I was looking to do something similarly in March but never pulled the trigger. I'll prob play with it this time.

What do you think? It's always best to run ideas you come up with at 4am past other people.

Jiorden

It's a Slow Friday night! It's pretty late (4am my time). But I can't sleep. When you're not working, your sleep schedule gets all F'ed up. I just quit my Job... Going back to school in the fall. NYU's MBA Program.

Anyway, in my state of delirium, I decided to take a look at the S&P500... So take what I say with a grain of salt.

Here is an annotated chart:



With these indicators, it's always easier to spot bottoms in an upward trending market... and tops in a downward trending market.

Based on my chart analysis, this is how I plan to trade the S&P500.

I'm prob going to buy some SSO (ETF that performs 2X the S&P500) when the S&P500 hits the 1450 support level. I'm thinking that will happen some time next week. If it bounces off of support and the S&p500 goes to about 1,600... the SSO will give me a 20% return.

If the S&P500 breaks, support I'll look to quickly cut my losses, sell SSO and buy the SDS (ETF that shorts the S&P500 2X).... I'd ride that SDS down to about mid 1300's (about a 13% return). At that point, I'd prob sell the SDS and pick up some more SSO. I honestly think the S&P500 will close higher then 1,555 by the end of the year... near 1,600. If so, the SSO will give me about a 37% return.

I was looking to do something similarly in March but never pulled the trigger. I'll prob play with it this time.

What do you think? It's always best to run ideas you come up with at 4am past other people.

Jiorden

(IFLI) Hey Ken,

Long time no speak. Hope all is going well.

I can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. Life should start becoming less demanding by April or so. I am looking foward to returning to the board full force.

In the meantime, what do you think about IFLI?

CHCG

I mentioned this one on the 7th of november i believe. Still moving.

Resistance at 5 bucks and 6.50.

MNCS

This is not a perfect magic box *it never really got TOO close to the lower bollinger band* And just by the looks of that chart, its probably deep in quick sand.



But do you think this could be a short term play? It just broke out of that triangle formation.

3.47, 4.34 next resistance levels.

Hey Ken,

Haven't had any classes.

I am in the MBA application process. I've been writing essays for the applications, along with gathering recommendations, and other stuff.

I've just sent the Cornell application. The application I am working on now is for NYU, it is due December 1st. Hopefully that will be the last application I need to complete.

As far as trading that stock. No I haven't, Im still in the paper trading process.

From time to time I've been doing Magic box scans. I've been gathering a pool of magic box formations that proformed well and some that haven't. Once I have the time Im going see if I can find some patterns that show up on the successfull patterns that do not show up on the unsuccessfull patterns.


Jiorden

CHCG

Hey, What do you guys think of this one...

BWLRF GNPI

I haven't had time to do much scanning for new magic boxes lately. Work's been nuts... But I just went back to take a look at some magic boxes i have previously posted, and these have just broke past other levels of resistance i have mentioned... checkem out.

GTRE -
If this one can close above 1.70. It might be a nice one.

IVAN
Resistance at 1.64 and 1.90ish

HLSH - noticing a pattern




Three of the last several stocks I have posted have something in common.

GNPI, TREN, and HLSH (other charts posted in #8744)

Check out the channels... two Magic Boxes at the bottom of the trading channel... on the second MAGIC BOX attempt, it breaks through the upper channel resistance.

I guess its kinda similar to the fairy square... not sure though, havent read up on it much yet.

Here are some other movers... lets see if they keep moving.

BWLRF - Posted this a short while ago, this one keeps moving.


GNPI - Remember this one? It finally broke through that resistance level.


TREN - I was waiting to post this one after it broke past the 1.70 resistance the last magix box couldnt break through. It BLASTED through it today.

I think thats exactly WHY the stock dropped off the way it did. Stocks like that have a fragile ecosystem.

The stock was moving in a very predictable manner. Up a few percentage points a day... standard volume.

Suddenly, it was "THE WONDER STOCK." You had other traders boost up the PPS at irregular rates... volume increasing... the stock deviating further from its moving averages... It was not maintainable...



One thing that always seems to hold true about any particular trading strategy... if everyone knows about it, it no longer works.

Mets Jets fan here too....

Im hoping the mets take two of the next three games... And win it at Shea.

Jets remaining schedule is very easy. If we win the games we are SUPPOSE to win, we would be at ten wins by seasons end. But, winning the games you're suppose to win is alot harder then it seems in football.

I'm a Knicks fan also... Hopefully they aren't the laughing stock of the league this year.

VYGO was up 20%... couldnt close over that resistance point though.

VYGO

This one looks pretty good. What do u think.... Check the Long Term set up as well.

Here are a few I have been tracking since the Magic Box date that have progressing.

BWLRF


EVSC


AOGS


GNPI - I've mentioned this one before, its testing that resistance level again. Its an important resistance level.

RSMI is actually one of the stocks that came up on my MAGIC BOX scan.

Still needs to confirm, its had trouble doing so in recent history.

A COUPLE OF MAGIC BOX'S THAT CONTINUE TO MOVE

MBTG


PTSCE


These two i believe i posted on the board a short while back.... They keep moving nicely.

GPNIC HPLF PRTL SDRG

For Some reason, the chart didnt work. What do you think of these Ken?

GNPI PHLF PRTL SDRG

Hey Ken, couldnt do much annotating this time around... Rushing to practice, but what do you think of these guys?

Thanks,

Jiorden

PTSCE XOHO

Hey Ken,

What do you think of these?

GNPI, XOHO

Hey Ken,

What do you think of these two set ups?



I'm papertrading this one.

XOHO.

Hey Ken,

What do you think of this one??

Thanks again,

Jiorden

JAVO

Hey Ken,

What do you think of this one?

Jiorden

ENMD

Hey ken,

what are your thoughts on this one? It had an magic box in august... looks like that one was stronger.


Thanks,

Jiorden

OOOPS TYPO.

PBOF

Hey Ken,

What do you think of this one?


Jiorden

Hey Ken,

What are your thoughts on MBTG

Thanks,

Jiorden

Hey Ken,


What do you think of DIAAF?


Thanks,

Jiorden

What I see on ISON. We'll see where this "kinda but not really " magic box goes from here.

Take out your glasses, I dont know why this uploaded so small.

Hey Ken,

Question.

On stocks with lower PPS are the rules for Aroon activity on day 1 and 2 of the magic box set in stone? Or are they bendable...

Reason I ask, is because it seems like I am finding lots of magic box patterns that seem to have a double bottom. The lows of the two days of the magic box are equal to eachother, which causes the Aroon down to stay at 100 through both days of the pattern.

Im thinking because of the lower price of these stocks and because stocks can only trade with 4 decimal places, it is more likely for prices of lower priced stocks to have equal lows. This situation is even more likely for triple zero stocks.

If the rule is bendable, what would confirmation on the aroon down be? Hitting 87.5 or hitting 75?

Thanks in advance,

Jiorden

A good example of this stock is ISON. It has a double bottom at .80 cents. The stock seems like its finding support at the 100 day MA. What do you think of this one?

Hey Ken,

Thanks for you response and explanation. Leaning every time.

SRCH GNPI

Hey Ken,

What are your thoughts on these two?

Thanks,

Jiorden

don't own it... just had a few hours today... used it to test my understanding of the concepts.

Haven't been able to put as much time into it as I'd like... I've been way to busy lately. With work, the MBA application process, football practice/games....

Practice was cancled today, so I had some time to read up and play around with the setups.

STTC IESV

Hey Ken,

What do you think of these two?

Thanks,

Jiorden

Hey Ken, what are your thoughts on NSATF HAYZ ABTG