Apologies, it looks like I was wrong about preliminary results.

After listening to what the CEO had to say about sales momentum during two conferences in September, preliminary results and revenue guidance upgrades are possible this week in my view.

The next scheduled event after that is the earnings call and investor briefing in November where they’ll be providing earnings results, strategies on future expansions and hopefully additional commentary on the revised expectations on Recell Go approval.

Great summary, thanks for posting

“Jay Leno has third-degree burns to his face and may need skin grafts after a garage fire where one of his cars erupted in flames”

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna57348

He could be a good Recell candidate if skin grafts are required.

If it was me, I’d prefer the Recell treatment compared to skin grafts - especially on the face!

Quick answer: no

Inventia skin - 3D printing

Pharmaxis - anti scarring cream

I’m not sure who is working on the iKnife

"RECELL® Autologous Cell Harvesting Device" Insurance Coverage Begins in Japan ~ Medical Device for Acute Burns and Donor Sites

https://docs.publicnow.com/viewDoc?hash_primary=9BAD9BC5CE15FADB5450C196FB658250061DF5F0

https://ir.avitamedical.com/static-files/3006362f-83f2-4c6a-83d4-154da3c2788b

It’s really easy to comment retrospectively, especially when looking at a chart.

It would be more appreciated if you could provide us with some insight on how you see the future value of the company over the next few years.

Who knows, there may even be a period where the share price is likely to turn around and you could capitalise on the growth? Given the share price weakness, as you’ve pointed out, could there be value now?

https://ir.avitamedical.com/events/event-details/investor-webinar-briefing

Well AVH has followed RCEL back down to the equivalent of $8.65 so they’re back on par.

Melody will have a more accurate view.

My guess is although the recent news will bode well for the company in the future, I think it comes down to revenue. The market wants to see higher revenue growth than the 20% YoY guidance.. 20% QoQ would turn the share price around.

In the quarterly call, the CFO mentioned a potential future capital raise in 2023-24 which probably doesn’t help either, even if it’s to fund the future E.B and Rejuvenation multi billion dollar markets.

In saying that, I think the company will follow through with their corporate strategies in the medium to long term which will sort out the share price.

I thought it’s worth noting that there’s currently about a 17% share price difference between AVH (ASX) and RCEL (NAS).

AVH finished at A$3.21 which when converted is equivalent to US$11.74

Calculations: A$3.21 x 5 (5 AVH = 1 RCEL) x 0.7317 ($A to $US exchange rate) = US$11.74.

It looks like BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. have increased their stock holdings to 5.8% and The Vanguard Group, Inc. have increased their stock holdings to 5.2%.

https://ir.avitamedical.com/static-files/9ff74d6e-4d9c-4e9e-b8df-f4137ea3fbf4

Do you think they’re “respected” companies or just companies having a punt with other peoples money?

https://ir.avitamedical.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avita-medical-announce-fiscal-first-quarter-2022-financial

Take 2 - probably still doesn't make any sense but at least it has some images (Thanks for the lesson Fmello):

To be honest, I'd forgotten about the pie chart showing the breakdown of the serviceable markets (from Avita's November 2020 corporate presentation).


The severe burns market breakdown surprised me though - $200M (In-patient >10%) + $20M (In-patient <10%) + $40M (Outpatient) = $260M SAM for in and outpatient severe burns which is the same as the most recent corporate presentations. Refer to slide 13 & 14 of the following presentation (sorry, I couldn't find the images online):
https://ir.avitamedical.com/static-files/9c691f28-2b18-45ed-bf70-654f85788c9f

I had calculated (wrongly it seems) the following estimated SAMs based on percentages of TAMs from previous corporate presentations:

In-patient Burn Market - $200M TAM ~ 200/650 x $260M SAM = $80M SAM
Outpatient Burn Market - $450M TAM ~ 450/650 x $260M SAM = $180M SAM
Total In and Outpatient Serviceable market = $260M SAM (slide 14)

To me, if the pie chart estimates are still valid, it means:

1. The outpatient severe burn market, which Avita is anticipating to commence sales in from Jan 2022, has a $40M SAM (lower than I'd expected) so when/if the c code is granted, it won't have as much of a positive effect on the share price.

2. The in-patient severe burn market, which RECELL is currently being sold, has a $220M SAM (higher than I'd expected) so Avita will achieve full sales penetration faster compared to the outpatient market which Avita is still waiting on the CMS C code. This is a much better outcome, in my opinion, and we should see substantial sales growth QoQ/YoY.

Anyway, if the C code is granted for the Outpatient market, Avita will probably confirm the market size and make this post irrelevant :)

That’s ok, I don’t know how to post images which might help make my post make more sense :)

Thanks for sharing Fmello, definitely can relate to the article.

To be honest, I'd forgotten about the pie chart they feature showing the breakdown of the serviceable markets (from Avita's November 2020 corporate presentation).

The severe burns market breakdown surprised me though - $200M (In-patient >10%) + $20M (In-patient <10%) + $40M (Outpatient) = $260M SAM for in and outpatient severe burns which is the same as the most recent corporate presentations.

I had calculated (wrongly it seems) the following estimated SAMs based on percentages of TAMs from other corporate presentations:
In-patient Burn Market - $200M TAM ~ 200/650 x $260M SAM = $80M SAM
Outpatient Burn Market - $450M TAM ~ 450/650 x $260M SAM = $180M SAM
Total In and Outpatient Serviceable market = $260M SAM

To me, if the pie chart estimates are still valid, it means:

1. The outpatient severe burn market, which Avita is anticipating to commence sales in from Jan 2022, has a $40M SAM so when/if the c code is granted, it won't have as much of a positive effect on the share price.

2. The in-patient severe burn market, which RECELL is currently being sold, has a $220M SAM so Avita will achieve full sales penetration faster compared to the outpatient market which Avita is still waiting on the CMS C code. This is a much better outcome, in my opinion, and we should see substantial sales growth QoQ/YoY.

Can you, or anyone else, help clarify the above for me?

Hopefully but I also think with the majority of Australia experiencing lockdowns or restrictions due to the Delta variant of the virus, Aussie investors may be feeling cautious about a potential increase in cases in the US because it’s front of mind. Just a thought.

You have your finger on the pulse:

https://ir.avitamedical.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avita-medical-announces-inclusion-russell-3000-index

What’s next?

Nice summary Fmello, thanks.

I’m also interested to hear more about the business development which could be a “primary potential growth vehicle for the company going forward”. Sounds like we won’t have too long to wait either.

Good point!

I wonder how the treatment cost of StrataGraft will compare to Recell ($6500) and Epicel ($200K) if/when it comes to market.

I think StrataGraft is expected to compete more directly with Epicel than with Recell.

Avita Presentation which someone posted on HotCopper:

https://mstfinancial-au.zoom.us/rec/share/YCDx-iGqyVy8nit1b3hKCGR3fPjvJLHXoKvOyLRBRpoCDqcQjGR4V6tnEGcXRfWk.OdrIsu4UB4wtuMoz

I guess the following:

- Outpatient: CMS C code - October 2021. Latest Jan 2022. Commercial launch H1 2022.
- Vitiligo: Full recruitment H2 2021. Trial Results H2 2022. FDA approval mid 2023
- Trauma: Recruitment H2 2022. Results H1 2023. FDA approval late 2023 - early 2024
- Japan approval: H2 2021
- Proof of concept for E.B: H2 2021
- Proof of concept on skin for rejuvenation: H2 2021. Commence feasibility study H2 2021.
- Sales: continue to substantially increase QoQ as they gain market share (excluding BARDA)
- Patents?

State of emergency in parts of the country probably hasn’t helped.

https://www.japan-guide.com/news/alerts.html

If you haven’t already, listen to the latest conference call for a company update. They discuss Vitiligo and Japan, and more.

https://ir.avitamedical.com/events/event-details/avita-medical-inc-third-quarter-2021-earnings-conference-call