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Twice this week the pps had an early pop and a steady, slow decline the rest of the day closing just above the previous close. I think we will close around 9.30. This is the current pattern of the controlled trading. Of course I hope I am wrong and we head north.
Let us hope he got something good to say and didn't go there to roast marshmallows.
Maybe we will be bought like Catalent was. They had some screw ups with their quality control. EPS last quarter were -7.18 which comes to 1.4 billion loss. They had lost over 700M two or three quarters earlier. Haven't looked at their other quarters but it would be hard to imagine that they were profitable. How did Catalent end up being bought for 16.5 billions? It appears that a CDMO is worth a lot more to an acquiring big pharma than to any and all investors or another bigger CDMO.
We ended up with a new loan that has a higher interest rate and will cost us tens of millions more over the life of the loan. The 50 or so more millions in interest should lower the buying price by the same amount and not by 500M or a Billion.
And also one million shares at 6 would be half million shares at 12 and even less in the mid to high teens.
I think he will get back to his old job when he runs out of money.
A better question is when will CDMO close above 17.
The sale price will have to be agreed on by the shareholders. The buyer and the seller determine the buyout price not just the buyer. The buyout price will be determined by the projected future profit margins and revenues.
Unless it is determined that the profit margins will always be below industry standards we shouldn't have to worry about a low buyout price. What would you consider a low buyout price?
If the selling won't be done for another two weeks why didn't those who bought today wait for more selling which would drive the pps lower before buying?
I think the two 20,000 + shares buys have to mean something. Maybe the BOD has been slow playing this to get their buys around 10 at what they thought was bottom and we might get a very positive call next quarter.
I think the only news that would make the pps to jump would be a buyout. I wouldn't be surprised if a merger doesn't cause the pps to go up given how manipulated this stock has been. It has been down 4-6% on very little volume so many times and it has also been down about 5% with buy volume several times greater than sell volume on so many occasions. On such occazions the pps should have gone higher and not lower. A stock cannot be more manipulated than that. We already got excellent news for the new viral plant and it didn't stop the pps to go lower.
It looks like the MMs can do whatever they want with the pps and they are/have been cooperating with whatever entity/entities are buying or selling short. I think it's time to sell the company. NG and Carleone have lost now more than $100k of their hard earned money. They each bought 20,000+ shares at 10 or 11. They must have felt that was the bottom.
My hope is that whoever has been shorting will load up to make money on the way up. They can take this stock below 1 if they want but they might not want to make what they're doing too obvious.
"With $5.5 billion in funding and more than 161 active stem cell programs in our portfolio, CIRM is the world’s largest institution dedicated to helping people by bringing the future of cellular medicine closer to reality."
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"All partnership activities will be performed in Avid’s recently launched, world-class CGT CGMP manufacturing facility in Orange County, California."
Check Cheynew's message on Oct 11. Nick Green acquired 21,000 sh on Oct 9. I thought it would help the pps.
Sold over 1300 shares at 10.10, 10.13. That made the price go up to 10.37. Investing in a story stock is not the way for me anymore. After I sell all of CDMO I will either try another way to make money or swing trade with a stoploss which will prevent me from watching a steep decline. We have been betrayed by the BOD and Nick.
The eps estimate should be easily beaten and likewise the revenue. We need both.
Was Avid ever profitable? Ronin forced the sale of bavi which was siphoning off Avid's profits. When was Avid profitable and by how much in the period between the sale of Avid and the start of the new plants? Shouldn't that have been a very profitable period?
The start of the construction of the new plants (one completed in April and the other one to be completed in about another month?) was and is still wiping out profits from the first manufacturing plant but by how much and for how much longer? How long will the depreciation costs continue for? What kind of depreciation method are they using? The 500 million R&D expenses are still being kept in the drawer and were used only for one quarter.
Are they charging enough for the end product to pull in a profit that is in line with the industry profits or are they selling the finished products too cheap to raise the margin to 30% where it should be?
As much as one may want to blame Nick, he is just following marching orders. The BOD is responsible unless Nick is incompetent. We just don't know.
We have seen these large trades that do not have any effect on the pps many times. What could it be other than one II selling to another II? It has never meant so far that we can expect a big price movement unless it's just one II buying or selling. And in that case we always go down in price. How many times have we seen a big decline in price with buying volume significantly greater than selling volume.
So the capital gains are realized when the options are vested and not when they are sold? In that case it makes sense that they want a lower pps at the time the options become vested.
Like you said the unexpected low guidance makes no sense with the expansions completed and operational.
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That is 737 million NOL which amounts to $12 a share. If you tack that on to a $25 buyout we get $37 a share. Will they do it?
That explains why the pps tanked. It tanks when funds are buying and when they are selling.
What can we expect about the costs of the expansion and viral vector plant? Will the equipment be depreciated over its life? What about labor and other costs? Have they all been accounted for already? What kind of bump in eps can we expect due to the decrease in expenses that have already been accounted for?
TMO never went down with CTLT
We are not allowed to enjoy yesterday's 35% price appreciation.
Really scary virus. Good thing it's not an airborne virus. No treatments or vaccine for it other than treating the symptoms which can raise your chances of survival.
Where we live we have to contend with dengue fever which is transmitted through mosquito bites. Two of my wife's nefews (one of them was a niece) were hospitalized for it . Our eight year old son got it too but didn't need to be hospitalized.
There are four dengue viruses. One of them can be fatal when the platelets drop a lot. My son's platelets count dropped to 40 from an average of 350. They all drank tavatava tea which locals but not the hospitals or doctors use. The tea brings the platelets up back to the normal range. Platelets that are too low can cause hemorragic fever and death. Three years ago there were 290,000 cases of dengue fever in the country with 1000 deaths. That was probably the worst year ever. Quercetin is the main ingredient of tava tava tea. I have some tablets left and I am buying more soon. Tava tava grows outside our house. You just boil the leaves to make a tea.
All I can say is we humans are vulnerable to too many illnesses/diseases and natural and man-made disasters which can wreak unbelievable havoc, pain, suffering and death.
Yeah but are we forgetting her boss, Mr. Finken. I think nobody knows more about them than Bio/Globewriter. He hasn't posted in years.
What's stopping Catalent, Thermofisher and the rest from building new plants and labs with the latest reactors and equipment when the demand exceeds capacity. If a little fish like CDMO can do it why aren't the big fish doing it as well?
Change in control severance period twice as long as I guess current severance period as seen all the way to the bottom.
Change in control due to someone going over 50% of stock ownership or merger. This is just a possibility.
We followed Catalent in their discent but not in their ascent at least for today. That is very typical of our stock. Follow the market. Biotech index, and other related indices, sectors, individual stocks like HALO Catalent on their way down but not on their way up. Boy that makes me feel so much better now.
Of course we just don't know but the timing makes it interesting. Just months away from the completion of the expansion and new viral plants. It makes sense that an acquisition would take place after the two new plants are up and running and not before.
Any update on your expectation of bad news ?
How much of the selling was short selling.
I doubt it's Nick. It's the board who gives the marching orders. So far those orders have not served us that well when it comes to the pps and blatant manipulation. Maybe the board's agenda doesn't line up with retail to a large extent.
Wouldn't surprise me if it goes to 14. It all depends on whether one or more II buys or sells. This is how I think it works. When they buy they put in an order lower than than current price and the MMs go to work to fill it. When they sell they get no help from the MMs and the pps goes down. Maybe this time these big sells filled the MMs coffers enough for the next II buy unless they get greedy and want to buy even lower.
How do the MMs and IIs sleep at night? I guess the answer is they don't sleep. They scheme. This is why I wish they sell so that we can put and end to this. 30 is good enough for me. We probably have to wait until the expansion and the new viral plant are up and running.
Let's not forget to add the R&D expenses which could be worth 6-7 dollars a share and Bavi which has to be worth something. 15% royalties plus 95 million milestone. I know it has not been approved but drugs in phase II have some worth.
The last trade was at 19:29 for two giant shares at 17.05. All previous shares traded at 17.94.
Who are the fools that are being fooled?
What is your time frame. And I hope soon.
Market down under 2%.CDMO down over 8%. We always seem to fluctuate more than the market either up and down. Curous to see if buy volume exceed sell volume and by how much. If yes, then another big order will have been placed and filled.
Unless they sell the company which I think won't happen until the two expansions are completed and up and running in 2023.
I would think nobody is going to pay for two unfinished projects. There is always a chance that there will be delays, cost overruns, issues upon inspection and so on. We don't get rewarded for being on schedule with the two expansions but we surely get smacked down hard for any little hiccup. That said, I hope we sell ASAP and at a discount³ even before the two expansions are completed if that is what it takes sell the company.
If the big boys buying and holding shares mean only good things are in the works then all one would have to do is buy stocks with a strong backing from the big boys or IIs.
Why would one even bother reasearching companies with improving profits in a good sector when all you would have to do is follow the IIs?
IIs buy all kinds of companies based on value like Buffett, a mix of high risk/high reward, dividend income, high growth, small caps of different kinds, mid caps, large caps, you name it. There are mutual funds for all of the above categories and more. IIs allocate their money across many sectors. It's called diversification. That said I would rather be invested in a company with high institutional investment rather than low but that doesn't mean that things cannot go south.
I just hope they sell soon for whatever the company is worth or even at a reasonable discount plus we are going to recoup our R&D expenses and get maybe more than a few crumbs for Bavi because the longer the wait the greater the chance that something is going to go wrong like maintenance shut downs which we had or worse.