I wonder if those 12.5 million shorted shares are preventing a sale of the company. I think whoever shorted those shares must know that there will be no sale of the company before they cover their short positions simply because it would be too risky to short a stock whose company may be sold. If the shorters are the lenders they just put themselves in a neutral positions and won't benefit from a buyout.

The IIs will have to approve the buyout. I doubt they will vote in favor of a buyout at 15 when a large percentage of their shares were bought in the 20s and 30s. They stand to lose at lot with a buyout of 15.

We are at 10 also because of 12 million shorted shares which is 20% of the outstanding shares. We probably have been going up about 50% over the last month due some short covering. More short covering and we will probably be above 15 and higher. I think the buyout base price should be at least 15. That would would put the buyout at 22 or higher. Easy for anybody to say the IIs who bought shares in the 20s and 30s will be happy with 15. I think and hope not. Green and the BOD hopefully will want more.

10 at 1/3 capacity would mean 30 at full capacity. You would have to add more if you take into account the company's ability, resources, knowhow to build new manufacturing facilities quickly without any issues as they have shown with the expansion and viral vector facility. This is what I think. Also without taking into account other factors.

The stellar compliance record is steve King's legacy that carried over to Lias and Nick after his departure. Nick and Lias can get the credit for keeping the team responsible for maintaining such stellar compliance in place but that is something that is very easy to do. Where Nick failed is in filling,or starting to, the new capacity. Plus Steve King took Bavi into phase III. Had it not been for the phase II sabotage Bavi would have probably been approved. Nick has failed so far in starting to fill the new capacity after more than ample time. I do hope you are right but I hope we get taken over at a good price after all of this waiting. Maybe the price jump bodes well for the near future, i hope.

At this point the only thing I am hoping and waiting for is the sale of the company. Green and the board cannot get it done because they haven't gotten it done after all of this time. Building a new plant and expansion is a very bad move if you cannot fill the new capacity in an industry and at a time when there is
good demand. Maybe HALO will move all of their manufacturing to Avid but that obviously will not be because of anything Green at al will have done. They seem to be too comfortable drawing their fat salaries without even thinking that their stocks could be worth a lot more if they started to fill the capacity.

But that takes work, accountability of your sales team accountability to your shareholders, things that they do not appear to have. They relish in things like esg compliance and maybe DEI (don't know if they are pursuing dei but it wouldn't surprise me). Steve King was a much better CEO than Green has proven to be so far. Hoping that maybe another Steve forces a sale of the company. Steve Cohen.

What does 7:1 mean? If it means 7 shares of cdmo for one share of halo then the buyout would be little less than our current price.

Sludge funds would be a more appropriate name for them.

Who was the signal for? Who else besides the MMs can drop the pps 7% or more on very low volume.

The only thing they have been good at building is anticipation and of course the vector viral plant and the expansion which do more harm than good if they don't fill the capacity.

Do we really want to give them more work to do by making them read an email? We know they didn't read everything in the loan agreement. Hopefully they are working on some good contracts or even a good buyout that will benefit them and us poor forgotten shareholders.

Twice this week the pps had an early pop and a steady, slow decline the rest of the day closing just above the previous close. I think we will close around 9.30. This is the current pattern of the controlled trading. Of course I hope I am wrong and we head north.

Let us hope he got something good to say and didn't go there to roast marshmallows.

Maybe we will be bought like Catalent was. They had some screw ups with their quality control. EPS last quarter were -7.18 which comes to 1.4 billion loss. They had lost over 700M two or three quarters earlier. Haven't looked at their other quarters but it would be hard to imagine that they were profitable. How did Catalent end up being bought for 16.5 billions? It appears that a CDMO is worth a lot more to an acquiring big pharma than to any and all investors or another bigger CDMO.

We ended up with a new loan that has a higher interest rate and will cost us tens of millions more over the life of the loan. The 50 or so more millions in interest should lower the buying price by the same amount and not by 500M or a Billion.

And also one million shares at 6 would be half million shares at 12 and even less in the mid to high teens.

I think he will get back to his old job when he runs out of money.

A better question is when will CDMO close above 17.

The sale price will have to be agreed on by the shareholders. The buyer and the seller determine the buyout price not just the buyer. The buyout price will be determined by the projected future profit margins and revenues.

Unless it is determined that the profit margins will always be below industry standards we shouldn't have to worry about a low buyout price. What would you consider a low buyout price?

If the selling won't be done for another two weeks why didn't those who bought today wait for more selling which would drive the pps lower before buying?

I think the two 20,000 + shares buys have to mean something. Maybe the BOD has been slow playing this to get their buys around 10 at what they thought was bottom and we might get a very positive call next quarter.

I think the only news that would make the pps to jump would be a buyout. I wouldn't be surprised if a merger doesn't cause the pps to go up given how manipulated this stock has been. It has been down 4-6% on very little volume so many times and it has also been down about 5% with buy volume several times greater than sell volume on so many occasions. On such occazions the pps should have gone higher and not lower. A stock cannot be more manipulated than that. We already got excellent news for the new viral plant and it didn't stop the pps to go lower.

It looks like the MMs can do whatever they want with the pps and they are/have been cooperating with whatever entity/entities are buying or selling short. I think it's time to sell the company. NG and Carleone have lost now more than $100k of their hard earned money. They each bought 20,000+ shares at 10 or 11. They must have felt that was the bottom.

My hope is that whoever has been shorting will load up to make money on the way up. They can take this stock below 1 if they want but they might not want to make what they're doing too obvious.

"With $5.5 billion in funding and more than 161 active stem cell programs in our portfolio, CIRM is the world’s largest institution dedicated to helping people by bringing the future of cellular medicine closer to reality."

"
"All partnership activities will be performed in Avid’s recently launched, world-class CGT CGMP manufacturing facility in Orange County, California."

Check Cheynew's message on Oct 11. Nick Green acquired 21,000 sh on Oct 9. I thought it would help the pps.

Sold over 1300 shares at 10.10, 10.13. That made the price go up to 10.37. Investing in a story stock is not the way for me anymore. After I sell all of CDMO I will either try another way to make money or swing trade with a stoploss which will prevent me from watching a steep decline. We have been betrayed by the BOD and Nick.

The eps estimate should be easily beaten and likewise the revenue. We need both.

Was Avid ever profitable? Ronin forced the sale of bavi which was siphoning off Avid's profits. When was Avid profitable and by how much in the period between the sale of Avid and the start of the new plants? Shouldn't that have been a very profitable period?

The start of the construction of the new plants (one completed in April and the other one to be completed in about another month?) was and is still wiping out profits from the first manufacturing plant but by how much and for how much longer? How long will the depreciation costs continue for? What kind of depreciation method are they using? The 500 million R&D expenses are still being kept in the drawer and were used only for one quarter.

Are they charging enough for the end product to pull in a profit that is in line with the industry profits or are they selling the finished products too cheap to raise the margin to 30% where it should be?

As much as one may want to blame Nick, he is just following marching orders. The BOD is responsible unless Nick is incompetent. We just don't know.

We have seen these large trades that do not have any effect on the pps many times. What could it be other than one II selling to another II? It has never meant so far that we can expect a big price movement unless it's just one II buying or selling. And in that case we always go down in price. How many times have we seen a big decline in price with buying volume significantly greater than selling volume.

So the capital gains are realized when the options are vested and not when they are sold? In that case it makes sense that they want a lower pps at the time the options become vested.

Like you said the unexpected low guidance makes no sense with the expansions completed and operational.



I

That is 737 million NOL which amounts to $12 a share. If you tack that on to a $25 buyout we get $37 a share. Will they do it?

That explains why the pps tanked. It tanks when funds are buying and when they are selling.

What can we expect about the costs of the expansion and viral vector plant? Will the equipment be depreciated over its life? What about labor and other costs? Have they all been accounted for already? What kind of bump in eps can we expect due to the decrease in expenses that have already been accounted for?

TMO never went down with CTLT

We are not allowed to enjoy yesterday's 35% price appreciation.

Really scary virus. Good thing it's not an airborne virus. No treatments or vaccine for it other than treating the symptoms which can raise your chances of survival.

Where we live we have to contend with dengue fever which is transmitted through mosquito bites. Two of my wife's nefews (one of them was a niece) were hospitalized for it . Our eight year old son got it too but didn't need to be hospitalized.

There are four dengue viruses. One of them can be fatal when the platelets drop a lot. My son's platelets count dropped to 40 from an average of 350. They all drank tavatava tea which locals but not the hospitals or doctors use. The tea brings the platelets up back to the normal range. Platelets that are too low can cause hemorragic fever and death. Three years ago there were 290,000 cases of dengue fever in the country with 1000 deaths. That was probably the worst year ever. Quercetin is the main ingredient of tava tava tea. I have some tablets left and I am buying more soon. Tava tava grows outside our house. You just boil the leaves to make a tea.

All I can say is we humans are vulnerable to too many illnesses/diseases and natural and man-made disasters which can wreak unbelievable havoc, pain, suffering and death.

Yeah but are we forgetting her boss, Mr. Finken. I think nobody knows more about them than Bio/Globewriter. He hasn't posted in years.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjT2MGr4qL8AhVhGbcAHVW2A4cQFnoECA8QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.biospace.com%2Farticle%2Freleases%2Fperegrine-pharmaceuticals-announces-appointment-of-patrick-walsh-to-board-of-directors-of-peregrine-and-avid-bioservices%2F&usg=AOvVaw1g0Megox0UNYWhce8WsAri

What's stopping Catalent, Thermofisher and the rest from building new plants and labs with the latest reactors and equipment when the demand exceeds capacity. If a little fish like CDMO can do it why aren't the big fish doing it as well?

Change in control severance period twice as long as I guess current severance period as seen all the way to the bottom.

Change in control due to someone going over 50% of stock ownership or merger. This is just a possibility.

We followed Catalent in their discent but not in their ascent at least for today. That is very typical of our stock. Follow the market. Biotech index, and other related indices, sectors, individual stocks like HALO Catalent on their way down but not on their way up. Boy that makes me feel so much better now.

Of course we just don't know but the timing makes it interesting. Just months away from the completion of the expansion and new viral plants. It makes sense that an acquisition would take place after the two new plants are up and running and not before.