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I want it now
Bob
But I'm impatient
Bob
Although it would be good come May and June for lower long-term capital gains tax rate
Bob
Maybe to start the new year off right
Bob
Maybe an early Christmas present
Bob
Maybe by Thanksgiving -- something to be thankful for
Bob
Gee, gone for a day and a half and over 500 posts, bad price action to a so-so PR -- hey, it wasn't that bad! Eventually, this will get past a penny, but when?
Bob
Daystar, I confess to being a little disappointed, too. I think we really have to wait for every deal to be signed or the money's in the bank before Wiley will PR things. These revenues that were announced were just from Head Start Associations in a few states. I can understand he doesn't want to come across as pumping the stock with wild PRs (IDWD anyone?), but companies are allowed to estimate sales and earnings based on deals in the works, sales trends, changes in profit margins and taxes, etc.
He's being very cautious, which means we just have to be more patient and expect a little more time to pass before this goes to multi-penny. I think the sales numbers that have been thrown around on this board are reasonable, and the estimates that came from those who attended the shareholders' meeting will be met or surpsassed, and we have an idea of their profit margins, so we'll get there eventually.
Bob
Ron, I guess if ATWEC doesn't sue over it, I can't imagine anybody else caring. It could basically be a product demo, as long as the kids hightailing from behind the car don't run into trees or cause themselves any injuries.
Bob
ZN: The internet gives us all sorts of ways to help get our stock prices up. The YouTube idea is truly brilliant.
Bob
IAG: $1.5 million is only about 1/5 cent per share. Unfortunately, the market isn't looking at ATWT as a big growth story yet, and so it's not getting the valuation that some pinkies get, of 5-10x or even 20x sales. This number is only part of the story here, and only seems to include a few Head Start Associations that have signed deals with ATWEC and doesn't include deals in the works or any real "forward looking statements." It doesn't seem to include any direct-to-consumer markets or OEM deals in discussion. Wiley has proven to be extremely conservative in his public statements, and while that's refreshing in the small company world, it does try our patience when we're hoping for big moves.
Bob
Let's hope the general market reads this carefully. The $1.5 million seems to be based on just the revenues from "the Mississippi Head Start Association, the Louisiana Head Start Association and the Wisconsin Head Start Association." Wiley is being extremely conservative here, and not even considering sales to consumers, the insurance endorsements, or any other deals which might in the works. I would guess that actual revenues for FY2007 will be closer to $5 million, but that's just a guess.
Bob
Mariner* -- you don't know my disappointment years ago when I discovered the Barenaked Ladies were not what their name claimed. What a bummer.
Bob
rvz, I agree about a trade show PR. Unless they come out and announce a signed contract at one of them, we don't need to hear about it. Attending a trade show is part of the business. It's nice to know they'll be there, but no press releases about it, when we're not getting any projections for this year yet.
Bob
Kahuna, I agree -- I think we all expected at least one other "better" PR after the shareholders' meeting. But the news that came from those who attended the meeting has mostly fallen on our ears. Without the PRs, the rest of the market isn't going to find out about ATWT. I get Knobias' Clip Report e-mailed every weekday, and they cover the small stock universe, but without any news, the rest of the market is deaf, dumb, and blind to ATWT's charms. I'm far too long here for my own good, and I'm not looking to sell any shares soon, but unless we all chip in and take ads out in the paper, we have to wait on the company to disseminate the news.
Bob
I have the website up. I haven't looked at it from work for over a week, and I delete cookies and temp internet files pretty often. It has the 9/27 PR on the site, so it's updated. All the tabs work. Give it time, Stevo, you'll get back into it.
Bob
Stevo: I know it's sick, but I'm beginning to enjoy seeing these stories of children being abandoned on buses. Perhaps I'm being too single-minded regarding ATWT.
Bob
dmon: There are $10,000 bills and $100,000 bills. But the Fed keeps a sharp eye on them. The $100,000 ones were used for big transfers in the days before book entry banking. Now, I doubt they're even used. Anything more than $100s now, you need to fill out paperwork to get. But how are we going to go to Vegas with our ATWT winnings in February? We can't carry around a million dollars or so in quarters.
Bob
Dmon -- I'll put in some sell orders. I already have some in, in case I get stuck on a train or something. but I'll gladly put some more GTC orders in at 1:45PM. BTW: I'm with Schwab.
Bob
I don't know one way or the other about a buyback, but it's not completely out of line. ATWT sold shares to acquire and fit out the manufacturing facility. They needed the cash then and it went to good use. Now they're throwing off cash, a decent amount, from what we're hearing, and might consider reducing the float. If you think of the dilution as a loan from the shareholders, and a buyback as paying off that loan, it's not unreasonable. For a pink, bank loans are not always available quickly, and PIPEs are even more toxic to shareholders, this was the fastest and most upfront way to generate money for the factory.
Bob
To all those heading to Memphis: Godspeed!
We'll all be checking in to try to see what's going on.
Bob
Oiler: hardly working is more like it.
Bob
OT: LMAO. I already finished my lunch -- I usually start eating at my desk at 10:30 or so.
Bob
Eye,
I expect to hold at least 80% of my shares past 3.7 cents. I've got some sell orders in at various prices and I think we'll be able to recoup our investments somewhere between 1 and 2 cents and then let the rest ride past a nickel.
Bob
Stevo, thanks for all this DD!
This Sky-Trac is ours? Wow! I hadn't seen anything on this.
I just might be retiring in a few months.
Bob
Metropick -- this is great!
You might want to copy Newsday's Letters To The Editor at letters @ newsday.com and their news editor, John Mancini, at editor @ newsday.com. Nothing like getting the papers involved.
Bob
QVC's minimum order is about $25,000 wholesale, which isn't much for some of the products. And one of their numerous hosts is a former Miss Tennessee who was a spokeswoman for the governor's drug-free program.
Bob
Schwab still showing the JPHC merger shares on mine.
bob
I'm puzzled by their reluctance to release any figures before the audit. Most large companies' quarterly reports are unaudited, and they release info all the time. I expect the sales will really start coming later this calendar year, but there's nothing to stop the company from releasing estimates or guidance. They've mentioned they have goals for the coming year, but I haven't seen any mention of what they actually are.
Bob
rvz: I might not go so far as POS. But it's not a big company and they should be able to give unaudited figures for FY2006 within first 10 days of September. And they should be able to provide more quantifiable estimates for next year.
Bob
We knew that there were 400 units installed in FY2005, what we needed is units for FY2006, which is almost over. If it was a 300% increase from FY2005, that's 1,600 units, which is a bit disappointing to me. I can accept that much of the recent selling will bring revenue to FY2007, but I was hoping for closer to 4,000 to 5,000 units for FY2006. And while we expect an increase in FY2007, they didn't give any real guidance. Another 300%? 3,000%. "...on track to accomplish its goal for FY07..." but what is that goal? 5,000 units? 10,000 units? I fear until ATWEC quantifies next year, it's going to be a trading vehicle.
Bob
Wolf,
But if you have some exchange-listed stocks that you're holding long term in your margin account, that provides the "margin" for you to be able to use cash from today's sales today, instead of waiting for the trade to settle. Even better, if you hold Treasuries, the brokers will let you use most of the money invested in them to trade with.
Bob
This is hysterical if you're not invested in GFCI. Unable to expand beyond one tanning salon, so pursuing oil and gas exploration instead. Sounds like a plan. Looks like another shell with years of audits to catch up with. If there's a buyout, we'll end up with restricted shares of this new shell. Oy vey!
Bob
I think we might get "big news" today or middle of next week. One thing I would like to warn about though is some of the projections I've seen, where 100,000 units are multiplied by $200. They have other products, too, that retail for $60, so depending on the product mix of the units sold, we might not see numbers quite as high as we hope. Of course, we're all guessing to a point, but from what we've heard from Wiley through some posters, the numbers will probably be fairly impressive, especially going forward.
We've all seen some of the ads for the luxury SUVs which have sensors or a camera to warn of people or things behind the vehicle, but with ATWT's products, this really can be something that anybody can install in their own car. I'm not sure any reminder will help people not forget their child in the back seat, but P.A.U.S.E Alert (Kiddie Alert) is a $60 item that installs easily. Any extension of the product line, whether using sensors, GPS, or things we haven't even thought of yet, could easily bring us the numbers we're hoping for. Guidance for next fiscal year will be key, IMO.
Bob
Fog, this was brought up to I-Hub before, maybe a couple of months ago, but I guess they haven't done anything about it.
Bob
I don't think it's dumping or much profit taking, it seems to me like the MM are walking it down. A lot of matched trades, and a lot of small trades @ 65. I've had a bid for 900k @ 68 since yesterday through Schwab, not even a partial fill, and it's not an AON bid either. I did a partial conversion of my IRA to a Roth and wanted to buy some more in the Roth before the price got too high, mostly for tax purposes. Haven't sold any I had in the IRA yet.
IMO, no company is going to dump only 25,000 shares at a time when it's still under a penny.
Bob
Trackgirl, and this is only the upper midwest. I'd bet they're working this angle with other insurance companies. I think when we see revenue news, this will move up to 3-5 cents. With the outstanding shares still below 500 million, $5 million in revenues is only a penny a share, and I'd guess they might come close to doing that for the year ending August 31. If ATWT provides some guidance for next fiscal year later in the month or early next month, or states some backlog going into September, this will take off. JMHO, of course, but the signs are pointing that way.
Bob
Wright moving to California tells me he expects this to be somewhat fruitful. If it was a flash in the pan, he wouldn't necessarily pick up and move to benefit from Texas' lack of state income tax. But it would make a difference if he expected this to turn out very well.
There is some heavy bashing and personal attacks on the RB board, but there have been a lot of subtle hints that the insiders at KING have something solid going on. Maybe they haven't had 100% successes in life, but in the oil/gas field, especially wildcatting, you're going to drill some dry holes. But I think patience, especailly from these levels, will be rewarded.
Bob
Just listened to old interviews Wiley did on WallSt.net in March and May and they were much smoother than the last one. I think he followed the scripts and the interviewers played it straight. They're both similar and he says much the same things, but he mentions the home and commercial monitoring and security businesses and how they had finalized one purchase and were close on the other. Any kind of monitoring business with monthly cash flow would be a big deal, even if it starts out locally. With Wiley's electronics background, good technology can bring strong recurring revenues. Think of those alert necklaces they sell to seniors during daytime TV, and the $20-$30 a month they bring in. No wonder they'll send you the gizmo for free just for signing up. Sell just 5,000 units and you've got $100k in revenue every month.
I thought I heard Wiley mention the lodging industry on one of them (I don't have speakers on my computer here at work and all I get is the tinny sound from the CPU under the desk), but voice alarms in hotels and office buildings would probably be much more helpful than the alarms they have. Nothing gets you up in the middle of the night like a piercing alarm, but it doesn't convey any information. In between piercing alarms, voice alerts could help direct people to the nearest fire exit with instructions to turn left on leaving the room, etc. How many people really look at those instructions on the door of their hotel to see where the nearest fire exits are?
Bob
VLF:
Thanks. I'm kinda lazy and don't do enough of my own DD, but every now and then I get inspired to do a little. The school bus conference group posted some pictures on their website, but a quick scan didn't give a glimpse of anything ATWT related. A lot of pictures of presenters without any captions, so you don't know who they are. I had e-mailed Black Enterprise Magazine a while ago giving them a tip on ATWT and Wiley, but never got a response. I certainly hope Wiley does well by doing good, and we can all do well along with him.
Bob