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Will@ I see and understand - You don't want to speculate to much - but prefers to look at 'what is reality'.
And reality right now is 'Still full steam ahead in USA - 800 sales reps - DTS etc'.
Europe GIA - which many says could be 'suicide for the company' - something has to happen to Get into Europe 'Full Speed' !
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As you say 'from here on' It's all about sales numbers' - and that is obviously why company has decided to - 'Go full steam ahead' in US (despite generic ANDAs).
The filosofi has to be 'Get as much power in sales as possible' before generic's find their feets in the market - and that could (given the circumstances) actually be the right strategy.
Thanks again Will - later !
Jasbg
PS. As It has been ever since R-I - AMRN investors - 'Waiting' for that message of BO / Serios Partnership with BP - that could take both Vascepa - and SP to were it should be in - helping CDV patients - and rewarding Investors :)
lizzy@ And there is no shortage of patent cases. It's an Industry in itself.
Will@ You obviously have big 'reality knowledge' on markets and finance general.
And also insight into valuation of companies (what I in your first posts took as unreasonable critic of Amarin and the company's general strong and week points from you - my mistake).
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Realizing we have a real capacity in modern busioness here - I have to ask you:
1. If you were CEO of Amarin - what moves would you take to put the company back on track - if that is even possible ?
2. Do you as many here on this board se it as a 'MUST' that there is a New Management in place (reality meaning BO) - for Amarin to 'get out of the hole' we are all trapped in right now ?
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Big questions I know - but if you would 'give it a shot' I'm sure a lot of people here would be interested in how you see things.
Thanks in advance sharing your pro. experience :)
Jasbg
gozips@ This is how it's done !
Any chance a Godfather fan here :)
OT weekend@ As it is in heaven: Trailer eng. subs
Meo@ Thanks! Still here - sharing all the suffering with the rest of us.
I have been unjust against you - Golden Flyer - and maybe others - Apologize for that - if so.
Excuse - the billions on the line in these terrible Unjust Law cases.
Have a nice weekend !
Jasbg
sts@ Straight talk - as always. Goes a little against Revolte here right now :)
Have a nice weekend !
Jasbg
PS. Think I saw you advice marjac on a series (68 something). I advised him on a film today - I recommend you see. Just a great movie I'm sure you'l love too :)
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=158238969
Have to ask a banal question here. And I will make it a simple as possible (natural for me):
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Having never been in a BO situation (why I'm poor) - What usually happens after a buyout - do the company (the overtaken Brand name and Stock) continue in the market - Or' - is the Stock 'closed' - and company enrolled in the BP Brands Stock value thereafter ?
Jasbg
Will@ Listening here - as I recognize and acknowledge your experience and insight is exactly what is needed' to value depths of the current crisis of Amarin
Thanks again for your sharp and informative posts. Hope Top of Amarin take notice.
Thanks again - and keep it up Will :)
Jasbg
NB. Curios - if you dare to guess: What do you see as the 'Real Value' of Vascepa - if/when company run by competent powerful BP ?
marjac: Title of film is: As It Is in Heaven
https://www.amazon.com/As-Heaven-Michael-Nyqvist/dp/B01M64CDHQ
You ought to be able to find it on some other streaming service - if Amazon link does not work.
In Scandinavia it is on both Netflix and HBO.
All the best
Jasbg
NB - Look as customer review on Amazon. This is a fantastic film.
marjac@ I'l work on it and get back to you. I really want you to see this movie - when you do I'm sure you will understand why.
There is so much wisdom and magic in this story - you simply have to see it to understand :)
Later
Lrich@ Thanks again for explaining in 'good metaphors' where Amarin Are' - and where 'The company Should Be'.
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I actually 'Second' Raf's 'very deep an serious mail to JT - making strong appeal to 'sell the company' - as the best move for him to 'help shareholders' - where things stand after the patents are lost in USA.
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So your way of thinking 'is sinking in'. What is a fact we all can agree on - is that some action (and serious action) need to be taken 'saving the future and the potential of Vascepa'.
Be it BO (meaning new management) close partner deal with BP in Europe. Something needs to happen for market to embrace this company again.
And we are talking in weeks' - not months' - think we can agree on that :)
Jasbg
Lrich@ Thanks for your answer - and historical info regarding JT and Amarin.
A lot of your information I hear for the first time - and it suddenly explains why a number of people here agitate for new leadership of the company.
Part of my 'defending' JT is out of pure instinct - that it just to easy to blame him for 'something' (loss of patent cases) that is truly not his fault.
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Besides that I acknowledge your reasons for 'wanting Real Change' - in running Amarin - and suddenly I would as everyone here 'love to see action that could/will bring SP back on track.
I also know 'examples are endless' in new CEO 'cleaning house' bringing a company in real trouble 'back on course'. I have maybe not 'fully reached that conclusion yet' - that it's the Leadership of Amarin that's holding us back - but listen and takes in arguments to the contrary :)
Jasbg
ilt@ Seems 100% logic and right what your saying - That being told to do a 500 mill. dollar trial for a New Label - will naturally replace the prior existing label - that then can not be valid anymore.
Have you (or others) looked for any kind of precedent action by FDA in similar situations for other drugs ?
Invest@ If it is any comfort - my wife 'beat me with a stick' every day for same reason :)
Louie - rose@ And mine.
This was going to be 'my last ever' single stock investment. Have lost a couple of big ones in business - so a bit of luck would be good.
Still waiting - like you. Actually bought 3000 more at 6.90 - true brilliance :)
rose@ Truth about Amarin in a nutshell right now :)
marjas@ If you love great movies - this is among the best I have ever seen:
Its on HBO in Scandinavia:
https://dk.hbonordic.com/movies/sa-som-i-himmelen/1f10ced-0120be5cf0a
Fantastic story and filming :)
Jasbg
Will@ Thanks for your extensive answer here - which reveals great insight to markets and finance general.
I'l not be arguing against your assessments here - as they are very convincing and thorough.
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Only comment would be - that i don't trust WS (or the big BP players and banks) to always play fair. I don't say that the SP is manipulated right now (to make a BP - BO cheaper).
And I don't say Leland Gershell from Oppenheimer 'must have had some inside information' when he had a take of 7 and sell. When SP was 26 right after approval dec. 2019 (and the general take from analyzers were between 35 - and 55).
All I Am saying is that - the game is not always played fair - which the historie of Amarin shows all to well :)
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Great post Will.
Jasbg
Crikker@ Terrible math there - sorry. Of Course your right - it must actually be 2 mill earnings (I noticed i think Dansing ITD mention) that was in my mind :)
Hikma don't stop at 752 million:
Look at the number on this announcement after appeal win september 3.
https://www.hikma.com/media/2836/vascepa-statement-september-2020-vfinal.pdf
ilt@ As a layman in many aspects of what is going on around US authorities, and the endless number of rules - to me' you have a very strong case in your argument here.
And following what has happened to Amarin over the last couple of years - FDA does seem to be at the center of everything:
Delaying Adcom (very late notice - that sent the SP in a deep fall) - delaying DTS for months. But granting Hikmas ANDA in 6 weeks after DU's ruling. DR. Reddy shortly after.
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Lets put it this way - looking from abroad' - not knowing every detail (there are thousands I have learned going back more than a decade) - end result is - 'FDA does not seem to Like or Support Amerin very much'.
Is that influence from BP (like many says) might be. Is it about the Statin billions - very possible.
From a moral standpoint - I see your claims as very logical and just. What maybe scares investors somewhat about the prospect of picking a major fight against FDA - is the risk of loosing - and really being in trouble - and the timing (waiting once more for years - for new trials).
But the matter should surely be considered by every Law person and others that might have some real insight to comment on your suggestions.
Jasbg
Wil@ Why would people leave - it's not like this company is in any kind of trouble (besides losing the 'nonsense patent case).
Company is loaded with money. 2 million dollars in sales coming in every week.
Form 4' bonus (which I also think was a slap in the face of investors - in the current situation) - but still It's handed out here lately - also in 2020.
I don't see any reason for people to leave. Economic evaluation, this is as strong a company as you will find anywhere.
Do Amarin staff still believe the company has a bright future ? My guess is that big majority of them do. (understand that this Law crap - is no fault of Amerin's).
Jasbg
PS. Problem is the SP - which is bad for us shareholders. But for staff of Amarin - it has not much influence today (in the short run)
rose@ Saw your up and around !
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As when SP were locked 'for months between 6.5 and 7 - now we seem to be locked between 4.2 and 4.3.
Point of this post - I,m pretty sure SP wont fall from where we are right now - because we are at exactly the average price of the 360 million shares traded the 3. days after Du's ruling in marts.
Many said it was GS - that came in and laid the floor at $4 at the time.
GS is not in the business of 'loosing money' - so my guess is 'not down from here'. Amarin 'GET Moving' - and we hopefully can take of on the Bull going North :)
Jasbg
raist@ I again realise how little I actually know - of what going on here.
Thanks again for clearing that point up. And I do for every argument - understand your frustration somewhat better.
Good luck to you - and all of us - to get 'through this' - ugly downfall after patent cases.
Lets hope for something good to happen soon. Would be 'A First' in AMRN country this year - where this dreadful virus On top of it all - has done so much damage to the complete world - taking economy - jobs - education - you could go on' and on'.
Jasbg
raist@ I accept your arguing as well spoken and thought through.
And I do see the sense in much of what you saying.
You obviously know US conditions of 'how to du business' much better than me - so I consider your point about 'Using money for Lobbyisme' maybe the most important point (if Amarin did not do that at all) - even though it is 'corruption at its core for me' - if that's what is needed to 'move forward' - DO IT.
To your point about advertising to consumer right after R-I - as I understand these adds has to be FDA approved (DTS approval - sometime in may or june - was it ?)
Well I don't think we get any closer to agreement - but I thank you for your inputs. Getting a little viser regarding 'this maniac' investment of mine all the time.
And hope the best for myself' and your - 'I understand' major investment - 'on the line here' also. Can only get better from here :)
Jasbg
raist - Lrich@ I would call it 'founding' going from 15 people staf - to now + $ +450 million in sales.
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Elon Musk is the biggest Fraude in Amerika 'suckeing taxes from population' for his idi*tic ineffective 'coal powered' cars.
raist@ Please control your obsession with JT - this almost seem personal - have you been fired from the company or what ?
So what how JT talks and presents.
Someone on this board seem not to remember the number of awards he did win for great leadership - so a lot of REAL business people actually appreciate his style - not being 'fancy and ever exaggerated'.
What do you actually know about being CEO - being able to 'run the company' from posting on a board ?
Jasbg
eight@ Deep respect for your commitment and energy defending Amarin against Generic Thieves !
Hope JT and Amarin can use your work - to help get company back on track, would surely be great :)
All the best - and thanks !
Jasbg
marjac@ Love Lord of the Rings - on of the best stories ever written by man :
I love this Theme for Word Press:
https://mhthemes.com/themes/mh-magazine/
Actually the theme I use for my 'slightly' political site :)
http://talksense.dk/
As you can see $49 for this great theme. And most Plugins for Word Press also free or cost a few dollars - so the cost of running a 'special Web site - supporting Amarin would be probably less 'A Year' - than paying a lawyer for one hour.
Jasbg
Montana@ Your right ! I don't say that judge DU did a great job - 'she did a horrible - very biased - job'.
But I see Law people point out' - that Covington missed important elements that opened the door for DU to 'destroy the patents' !
And in appeal Singer unprepared for the Novo questions. But then most law people at the same time say - nothing would have changed ruling of the 3 CAFC judges. Their mind was made up before entering the courtroom.
louie@ I think that is the most constructive proposal after lost patent cases.
Amarin needs to realize - they need help. And there is all the best expertise in the world on Vascepa and Amarin story - right here on iHub - as you point out.
I'v seen some of the same thoughts here after appeal loss - from other posters.
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Maybe setting up a web-site - where the true story of of the greatly unfair loss in patent case - is described by the law experts.
The complete (long) story of Amarin - and all the obstacles underway. A job for JL - Louie and a number of others oldtimers here.
The wonders of Vascepa presented in the very pro visual way of HK - and others.
Everything presented in a organized pro - easy to read and understand way (search option for everything).
Putting everything on a web-site in a organized structure - would make the data available to 'everybody' - Amarin staff, the Markets, and all the rest of us.
I suspect that Amarin would be willing to sponsor a Webhotel and a Theme and what ells is needed for such a site. Word Press is free' - so the cost would not be much to run such a site.
Jasbg
raist@ I dont know the reason for that - dont know if anyone here do.
What I don't like is blaming JT and BOD for everything bad that has happened.
JT did everything possibly to win the patent case - you tell me what more he could have done ?
And what I hear pro Law people here say - in the after valuation of the patent cases is - that not even judge DU (meaning 9th circuit) is to blame.
It was first Covington missing the cropped data (if you want success in court - win in the first round).
Singers ods much harder in appeal - but still 'also he 'drops the ball' - how much 'bad luck' can one company have ?
Just have to hope 'the Gods will soon be on our side' - bringing this important drug to the needing CDV populations of this world.
Jasbg
cbb@ Hope your not right about Stupid.
And I do feel that (not you) but many after the horrendous Patent law cases - tend to forget the magnificent story that Amarin and Vascepa were after the Adcom and FDA expanded approval dec 2019.
Tha good story hasn't changed because some 'sick Law process' went completely of the rails.
And neither JT of Amarin is to blame for the loss of the law cases. They did whatever possible to win hiring the best 'law people' in the country.
We just have to hope that something good will happen - and hopefully soon.
And if it's a BO - so be it. Important thing is for Amarin to 'start acting' for real - to get the markets to believe in the company again - as 'before all this Legal nonsense began'.
cbb@ I think you to some extend sometimes overlook what a BO actually would mean. AMRN stock DEAD from that day - Period.
So you could buy in to Pfizer or Gilead - where AMRN part would be like maybe 1- 1½ % of value. Ok today you get 12 - 20 dollars at best - that's it end of story.
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Where as a Joynt Venture with one of The Really Big Guys in the class - AMRN would still 'be alive' and maybe grow far beyond the fast buck of the Buy Out today' - where we stand after patent losses.
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In fact this difference of possible 'future of Amarin BO or JV' - might be exactly where 'the dog is buried' - in either of these scenarios not having played out so far.
Most likely BP wants 'the whole cake' as in full BO. They don't want to see Amarin grow stronger - like 'Real Strong' - over the next 4- 6 years (SP 100 - 200) which is absolutely possible (with the right close BP partner/JV)
JT - that many Id**ts here - see as the reason for everything bad - of course knows exactly what Vascepa is worth - and don't want to just 'hand his life's project over' for BP to gain wildly afterwards.
This is why - the situation regarding possible BO - in real life maybe locked - where as a close Partner - with some kind of 'pre arranged BO deal' in 2- 3 years (where the expansion of Amarin is a factor in final BO price deal) - could be a way to get moving :)
Jasbg
PS. Just thoughts around the situation for Amarin - and us 'poor' shareholders - before bedtime where i live.
Free ZACKS AMRN Report from today 9/9 2020 for US citizens:
https://www.zacks.com/registration/pfp/?ALERT=YAHOO_ZER&d_alert=ZER_CONF&t=AMRN&ADID=YAHOO_CONTENT_ZER_ARTCAT_ANALYST_BLOG_256&cid=CS-YAHOO-FT-analyst_blog|company_news_-_medical_sector-1053426
Sometimes hard to understand how the market reacts.
AMRN, and Vascepa bin in the market with a product since 2012. Now have an important extended approval (R-I) that expands the potential market to hundred of millions WW.
Amarin sales exceeding 1 billion dollars (july 2019 - july 2020)
Europe - China coming up.
SP this moment $ 4.20. (max ever. $ 26.12)
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Comparison: (the stock Baker Brothers bought when reducing AMRN by 7 mill shares - some time back)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IFRX?p=IFRX&.tsrc=fin-srch
IFRX = Status Level 2b trials - no product on the market.
SP this moment $ 3.90 (recently above $ 8.00) - (max. SP ever $ 50.50)
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Makes you wonder how these two stocks can be valued about the same - even the setback of patent loss in US market for Marine.
Jasbg
The names you call honorable business people - On Ignore !
raf@ I think it might be this you have seen - and remember:
https://www.hikma.com/media/2836/vascepa-statement-september-2020-vfinal.pdf