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Now at 14.70. I'm still mystified at the $14 target set by JPM, a secondary underwriter on the deal. Talk about a low hurdle. More realistic (IMHO) is KBW, the lead underwriter. They have increased their initial target from $15 to $17.
A little profit taking today on low volume.
Understandable that some of the depositors who bought the full 200,000 shares @$10 each in October would lighten up a bit.
On the plus side, I see that the primary underwriter (KBW) has raised its target from 15 to 17.
ZZZZ. Ho hum. So boring to make money.
14.2 to 14.35, marching on to at least 15 in near term (IMHO-no promises).
Slow and steady progression from $10 subscription price (for depositors and employees) to mid October IPO opening at $12. $14.2 as I type. LadyDarley calls this a CD with high interest.
I have no idea how JPM, the junior underwriter on this deal, could have started coverage a few days ago with a 14 point target which is already history. The primary underwriter, the smaller KBW, projected a much more realistic $15.
Frankly, I'm more optimistic than either, because a weakening dollar will raise interest rates, regardless of (or because of) Fed printing. Regional banks like EBC with absurdly low discounted value to tangible book are in the sweet spot. My personal view (no promises) is that EBC is best in class in the best market area (Boston and suburbs, in many of which it does not even have a branch).
EBC ownership is not for bragging at parties. So much better to be in a hot tech or bio with a double or triple, if you want to throw the dice and say you are smarter than all in the room.
For investing, think of Lady Darley's wisdom.
LD
Jake, Over the years I have had taken my share of plunges. ANIP was the worst. EBC is not as sexxy, but seems pretty solid. 10-Q out today. Should be in the Russell in December. The Seeking Alpha poster, C. Demuth, who knows this very well, says that the index will absorb 9% of the EBC float and his calculations say we are still at only 75% of tangible book.
You won't be bragging at cocktail parties about this one, but it seems like a pretty straightforward path to 15 from here, and much higher over the years.
For those interested in great analysis of EBC, I highly recommend the articles of Chris DeMuth, Jr. on Seeking Alpha. He fully understands the special strengths of EBC which differentiate it from the other Massachusetts-based banks.
Brussel, Glad to have you on board. Based on the prospectus, the $1.8B will be used for acquisitions and also for improvement of internet/mobil banking.
EBC is now the gorilla, by capitalization, of the demutualized banks in Massachusetts. I have no idea who they might want to court, but they have had great success in the past (as a mutual bank) in acquiring banks in Massachusetts and New Hampshire.
The CEO is smart, and came up under the previous CEO, who came up under the CEO before him. It's a good culture.
I don't see a quick takeover by some huge bank, but they would be attractive. FDIC rules would prohibit takeover for at least three years, but I'd like to think the young CEO meant what he said in an interview which was to expand the bank to a $40B institution.
EBC is a long term hold for me. No promises, of course.
13.61 a few hours later.
Says myself to me (hooray!)
With such a low stock price, every few pennies is real gain.
I have trouble seeing how this does not get to the modest JPM target of 14 in the near future. This well-managed bank, based in Boston with its high income suburbs, is better positioned than most to handle the COVID-19 downturn.
Fair disclosure: I'm fully invested (and more so).
EBC stock is appreciating, as expected. Depositors and employees must be thrilled. They could subscribe for up to $2,000,000 each (200,000 shares) at $10.
Stock opened at 12 and is now at 13.33. More to come if you believe the analysts and can read a financial statement.
Happy to see that the stock price goes up a bit every day. The stock is now followed by JP Morgan and Keefe Bruyette and Woods, the underwriters.
JPM has a neutral rating and 14 target. KBW targets 15.
This is simply math. This is the leading Massachusetts-based bank, and it's still at a significant discount to the price at which the smaller demutualized banks trade in Massachusetts.
Probably too boring for those who want an instant double, but with the nearly $2B raised (all from depositors with no need for outside purchase) EBC has a war chest for acquisitions and organic expansion.
JTFM, all are well at home. Thanks. Hope we get together sometime.
I agree it was good to see Walsh spend $300k. I think the cash component of his compnsation as Chairman is $100k or so. Of course, there is a bit of noblesse oblige with his gesture. If the Chairman isn't buying, what does that say? As for Brown and the main group from Radnor, PA, they are early stage investors, so they have done well and can afford to ride to the finish, without putting in new money. I'm sure they rue the decision to borrow $100M + rather than allow the $68.25 conversion by the convertible debt holders.
For big picture, I'm out of ANIP and will stay out.
I'm now invested a good deal in an industry I know something about - banking. Eastern Bank Corporation (EBC) had a successful IPO last month.
Anyone who wants to chat going forward, I opened up an IHub folder for EBC, but that is probably too conservative for you wild and crazy small pharma types. (<:
FYI, until October, EBC was the biggest mutual bank in MA and is trading at a substantial discount to book (and tangible book). Very conservative, good market area, and is less of a risk than small pharma. The bank has been in business since 1818, and was the first bank in MA where a woman could open an account in her own name. (Catty, how times have changed.)
My best to all.
LD
It's almost a month since the IPO. The largest mutual bank in the US (and the oldest) surprised Massachustts residents with the decision to go public. The decision made sense. With the $1.8B raised, it can now make more acquisitions and improve its technology.
Depositors have already done well. Each depositor was allowed to subscribe in August for up to 200,000 shares @ $10 each. There was such enthusiasm, the stock opened at $12, and is a bit higher now. Because it's not followed by analysts and is not yet in indices, it's trading at only 75-80% of tangible book.
The environment for banks is not exciting right now, and this is NOT a recommendation. It just seems like a nice stock to consider for the banking part of a balanced portfolio, rather than money center banks.
That's it for now about ANIP. The two day Breeders Cup races starting soon in KY (Keeneland).
One of the horses named for my niece; another bred by a nephew. Watching on TV, two days drive away from KY.
God bless everyone, even those who dislike me.
I'm sure he does. And Elliot is smarter than that gaff.
This is the trouble with remote communications, when at home with a friendly bottle (or whatever he fancies) too close.
Raymond James is a good middle market firm. They've not done well for us in the last few years with Elliot's projections. I have no idea how many companies he covers.
I'd rather form my own conclusions. And above all, they will not include "beats" on hocus pocus non-GAAP earnings.
Take Elliot for what he is worth. In the conference call, he thought negative cash flow was minus $400M. It was actually negative $400K, and he had to be enlightened in the call to know his Zeroes.
Catty, Jake, and anyone else.
Get the hell out of this. You can always buy back. The 10-Q and the conference call made clear there was no silver bullet.
I'm no investment advisor, and have demonstrated stupidity in the past by buying this dog at prices as high as $80.
There are just times when you need to folow the advice of the great Kenny Rogers. Know when to fold them.
Enough. I'm going back to the investments I have now. The only thing that brings me back here is fondness for a few of you.
Speaking of bad AI, and to have a laugh on Friday morning, I doubt very much that Nikhil Lalwani concluded by referring to himself as "Nickelodeon."
The transript was hilarious and the worst AI I have ever seen - almost cryptographic.
I finally figured out that our new product - "Cockroft" - must be Corti.
Nonetheless, you could get the basic drift that was evident from the 10-Q - a serious decline in revenues for ANIP's higher margin products.
JTFM, Good to hear from you and hope you are healthy and prospering. I agree that we will probably have a dearth of ANIP news until next winter after the full 2020 results are announced. Ideally the promised 1st quarter Corti filing will be completed on schedule. The 4 month PDUFA date after filing will be ambitious for the FDA; I suspect there will be a longer time involved, and FDA requests for more data.
Due to a longer regulatory process than the optimal 4 months, I don't think Corti will generate new cash until 4th quarter 2021 at the earliest. ANIP will also face tougher competition from Acthar with its lowered subscription-based pricing and more advanced safety data.
As for comparing Arthur with the new CEO, I had not really drawn the distinction you point out. It seems to me Arthur was also keen on branded specialties when they could be found at an opportunistic price. I'm not sure I see any special magic in that regard with the new CEO, but time will tell. Of course, being able to afford any significant new deals is a big problem. With $180M of debt and declining cash flow, how much more leverage can they take on? I think they can't do anything really great until Corti cash flow kicks in, so 2022 would be the earliest for any new acqusisitons of significance (in my view).
For early stage investors with big gains, it probably makes sense to hold on, but that means passing up a FOMO frenzy for other stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and rare animals, and whatver else people will bid up. Anyone with a loss in ANIP is not thinking right (in my view) not to have taken it already and otherwise to take it now; you can always buy back in 30 days if you think ANIP is a better deal than the thousands of other opportunities for capital.
Catty, I didn't listen to the call, but did read the transcript. There is nothing more for me to add beyond my last post.
Underwhelming report.
The good news is that plans for the Corti Filing are still on track.
Otherwise, the numbers are not impressive. "Revenues" are up a bit, but that's a misleading figure. The increase is in low margin generics. The branded sales are way down. Contract manufacturing also down. Royalties up a bit, but a small number. In fairness, hard to assess the Covid 19 impact.
I'll not be buying at open, and will wait for the call to assess analyst questions and tone.
Catty, I might listen, even though I have no liquidity, due to owning stuff I would not dream of selling to buy ANIP (unless there is some fabulous news).
New development is that the calls now get transcribed and show up on Seeking Alpha, with opportunity to comment.
SA is the site where JTFM used to post good articles. InvestorHub a nice place, but I think of it as more of a place to chat with Jake (fellow ANIP loser) and you and a few others. Not much meaningful info.
Bitcoin...and newly public EBC. Bought that pre-IPO. It's the real deal, and my biggest public equity play at the moment.
ANIP needs a real sea change to get me back. Seems to be strictly for insiders, and they are a bit sleepy.
Catty, You're the best. Put it all on black and let it ride. Honestly, I don't know how much credence you can give to small volume ups and downs. If there were real news, trading would be higher. However, ANIP has a fatal appeal. It's the one you loved who didn't love back.
I'm buying more Bitcoin.
Best,
G
Jake, I see your point, but it's logical to me.
I have to sell better investments with taxable gains to buy ANIP now. I don't want to invade my cash reserve. For an investor like me, it makes more sense to wait for the call and assess risk/reward then. Different if I had a lot of spare cash that I wanted to invest.
For someone with ANIP already, they may as well wait for the call, especially if they are an old timer with gains.
Only a few days to wait. I think it's better than 50-50 that the call will be positive. Good luck to you and others. If the conference has huge good news, tough luck for me. I will have missed, but I don't want to gamble at this point. There will still be time to invest after the call.
Saturday mixed.
No news on ANIP. Waiting for the call. The price descent is on such low volume, it's not worth worrying about. Strictly a gambler's game to put in new money at this point. Also stupid to sell what you have now. Find out the news.
Speaking of my favorite subject (gambling) our well-bred colt who had time off did not come back well. That's horse racing. Time for us to find a good home. We don't drop them to claiming ranks.
Bright spot??
Bitcoin holding well at $13,800, and the October close was second highest in Bitcoin history. Because I prefer not to be responsible for coronaries of a cranky few, I'll not share what I have invested in this extraordinary asset.
Final words (today, until some Democratic twit removes this): I pledge allegiance to the Democratic Party if Trump doesn't win. It already controls the press and our schools. They have pledged to pack courts with new appointments. They have pledged to change the Senate by adding DC and PR as states. And their cohorts will riot and burn until that happens. It's the recipe of one party goverrnance. Control education, press, and courts, and use violence and plebiscites packed by big cities to elect the "party."
Jake, Insiders can't buy in this short window leading into the call, unless they had a pre-filed 10b-5 plan, and those rarely involve purchases.
This doesn't negate your observation: WHERE are insiders with real money buying the stock?
Why be a sucker (like LordD was) pouring in new money for a company where the insiders don't spend theirs?
Jake, for perspective, many posts ago you were the only one to ask some objective questions, about cashflow and EBITDA ratios. You were scorned, because those meaningful questions were interspersed with some crybaby wailing.
Excused. You're not running for president. You spoke your heart, and these were the only worthwhile posts in the last thousand. In spite of the vitriol from a nasty few, and well researched fantasy from others, you are the ONLY one to have gotten it right about ANIP.
But you were stupid enough to hang on and keep increasing your losses in spite of what your brain told you.
In the words of the great Willie Nelson: "Know when to fold 'em."
Let's wait for the call, hoping for magic. More realistically, wait for some in the Wall Street community to deliver a "story." Those are always better than facts, and that's the main hope for ANIP stock price in my view.
Catty, I couldn't agree more with your statement: "Besides I love horses, even tho I'm afraid to ride one!" You probably don't want to start now.
The trick with horses is to understand that they are herd animals, afraid of predators and looking for a leader. (Not too different from most humans).
Let me digress, while I wait for the ANIP conference call.
People have gotten so much smarter about training. Instead of bucking broncos (cowboys) or wicked implements, you don't "break" them, you gentle them. Training techniques are so impressive now. The old methods work, but I like the newer approach.
You handle them daily, when young, and when a bit older, you put them in a small round pen. You are the star of the show (in the center) with a long dressage whip to give them a little slap on the haunches. You then just make them move along, in circles, and never give up the center. Might take a few days or weeks, but they eventually understand: You are their Alpha; they walk in, bow their heads, and you always keep rewarding them with kind words and pats. From there it's putting on a saddle (end of the yearling year), getting on slowly, and spending another year. (Race horses get moved much faster, causing problems unless trainer really knows what he is doing).
The "wild" horse doesn't have to be wild, but even the best will spook, even at the age of 20, for unanticipated movements or sounds; it's their survival instinct, and is the main reason to drive a car instead of ride, unless you are very young or very experienced.
Coot, I like the metaphor.
As for ANIP, every try I have made at ANIP has ended up with goose eggs. I'm going to wait for the call. I really hope for everyone's sake who is still holding that the company turns around.
Corti also won't do it for me at this stage. It would need to be something really unanticipated, like a Libigel revival. There are just too many other good opportunities for capital, including more Roth conversions this year to hopefully shelter against tax raises next year and later if Biden wins.
Now, for my favorite subject - racing - a 3 year old who is really well bred but hurt himself last year is doing a comeback soon. Not sure about this race but he is a real athlete. His sire is Uncle Mo, for those of you who know the game. Wish I could say more, but need to stay ingognito here.
Regards,
LD
Catty, No problem sitting on the sidelines until the call. There are so many other stocks in the universe.
I am really glad I cashed out and reinvested what was left after my extraordinary mistake, which was to read that issue of Barrons a few years ago and take Oscar Shafer's recommendation of ANIP seriously. I lost money, but am richer for the experience, because I will hopefully not make the same mistakes again. I ignored some obvious tells because I was in love with a story.
1. I relied on the advice of a "famous" investor in Barron's. The first tell was when I saw Oscar state that ANIP's Corti would help with Infantile Spasm. (As we all know, that is not an indication on the MRK label, meaning that Oscar was relying on some kid in his office to give him superficial information.)
2. The next tell was that I kept forgiving management for missing estimates. Every time, there was a good reason, and I liked Arthur and he did not seem to be a fancy guy. What I missed was his extraordinary sales ability, the mark of a real saleman. Before being a CEO, he carried a bag and sold phamaceuticals. Travelling salesman. They just mix up optimism with hard facts. Not crooked, but believers to a fault, and salesmen don't have to deal with dreary details, because they can skate with personality. Always ask yourself: is this story coming from a salesman?
3. The third tell was that the investor group had two representatives on the Board, one of them in his 70s with zero expertise and just drawing money. Uh oh. Private investors with a plaything.
4. The next tell (which finally got me out) was seeing the Board had awarded a huge sweetheart package and then let Arthur go a few months later. Incompetent directors. The FDA RTF letter was icing on the cake, but my mind was made up.
Can they turn it all around with the new guy and two new directors? It will take some great news on this November 5 call to get me back, but I obviously am considering.
Jake, A bit too much for me to go back over notes for something more technical.
In lay terms, they bought rights to the MRK compound. They need to demonstrate to FDA that they are producing the same thing, and presumably have freezer samples. It's not just melted down pigs; it's a complicated molecule.
Everything from the company says they did that.
Since it's an sNDA they take the position there is no need for human safety trials. The wrinkle (to me, at least) is that it's so old, I don't have any idea on MRK safety trials, if any, under FDA procedures at the time.
The minor testing ANIP has announced is that when they give Corti to humans, they get the expected response. The ANIP psoition is that this is all that is required for an sNDA.
We have zero visibility into the FDA position, either as to whether the MRK molecule has been sucessfully replicated or whether FDA will be satisfied with whatever safety testing MRK did years ago.
I just don't have a crystal ball.
Catty, This is from the Schwab site:
Third Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected: Earnings will tentatively be announced 11/05/2020. With 3 analysts covering ANIP, the consensus EPS estimate is $0.88, and the high and low estimates are $0.92 and $0.82, respectively.
Expected Timing: Before market open
Catty, I'm out of ANIP for now and want to hear the quarterly call before deciding to get back in. If I still had shares I would probably hold on for the call and then sell unless there is real positive news about Corti. The risk is bad news about Corti, e.g., a conclusion that testing will be needed because it's too hard to demonstrate compatability with the MRK compound and that an sNDA is not feasible.
Without Corti, it's a nice little company, but hard to see more than a 20% premium if it were acquired. A big company probably wouldn't want the small manufacturing facilities because they would be redundant.
Also, even in the best case, Corti won't be profitable for at least a year, assuming it is approved, and we can expect serious competition from Acthar and the new MNK. Politics will also intrude, a problem for the industry generally. Hard to see this being a big winner compared with other opportunities for capital, but you may as well wait for the call.
Good luck, North
Looks like they are "moderating" and took down a few fun posts from Caddy, me and Jake. Realistically, what else can you say about ANIP until there is an announcement? I guess they prefer a board with no posting, which is their call, of course. Seeking Alpha is more vibrant, as a result.
Catty, Jake, JTFM, and other virtual friends. Pretty boring for ANIP right now. Maybe things pick up. All depends on Corti. A Libigel hope (even a small spark) would give Wall Street something to dream about, and maybe it will be resurrected by the new team, and JTFM will get back on board. I may get back in to ANIP if I hear some good news. Fondest hope is to see Catty in a Caddy one of these days after cashing in her CVRs.
Catty and Jake, thanks especially for your recent sincere and nice words. I must admit that posting here has been more for therapy than profit. Losing $1M on a single stock is a major hurt, even for a "Lord," but thankfully, all has been made up with some other lucky plays this year, including IPO participation in an industry I know something about.
That's all for now. If anyone wants to discuss something else until there is news about ANIP, let's do that, especially if it's horses (or Bitcoin, which is a real boost for me this year.)
Best, and keep smiling.
LD
Jake, Makes sense on a gross sales analysis, without taking profit into account.
Without considering profit, and MNK's clear desire to keep and expand an exclusive Achtahr market with subscription pricing and enhanced testing, it's not sure that gross sales figure translates into enhanced ANIP stock price.
Quite honsetly, a few words about Libigel opportunities, true or not, might do more for the ANIP stock price. Stock price is based on optimism, not reality.
Buy Bitcoin (<:.
More realistically, I got lucky with an IPO recently which is still grossly undervalued, but won't discuss due to a CRANKY few preferring the Board keep silent, rather than collegial.
BORING. (Come on Catty and others; show your stuff!)
Let's have some fun until there is real news. We then analyze the new CEO's first call. Is it worth putting in new money, or keeping what is already invested? That call will be critical, and be our first glimpse on the new team's perception of the sNDA application for CORTI.
Coot,
I keep scratching my head on whether to get back in. Today's price sure beats the $80+ I was buying at when in a more sober state.
There's just no pizazz, and equity prices in the short term look more to glitz than fundamentals. Where's the bling?
Libigel? The great hope of early investors, seems not to have value for now, but what a difference that would make if there was something which could be commercialized.
Corti? Assuming it gets approved, ANIP competes with MNK, which got a huge injection of hope (as predicted) with a Chapter 11 filing that blows off much debt, and resolves litigation overhang. Shareholders screwed, but irrelevant. Acthar is more live and kicking.
Multiples? Whether it's make believe accounting or real GAAP, it's pretty underwhelming.
Bottom line: without "magic" companies get priced objectively on their basics. With "magic," no one cares about math.
Where is the "magic" at this point? I was hoping for a deal announcement by now, and blew money on calls that have now expired. Big boy; no problem. But is this worth buying at this price? where is the "magic" except for unquantified hopes for CORTI? This may be a dead company walking. (Buy Bitcoin)
It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood.
I finally can look at my brokerage screen and, at last, I don't see those October 16 calls.
Auf wiedersehen! A bientot! Good night.
You have no idea what a public service I have performed. You are all guaranteed, now that my calls have expired, at least 50% profit from here.
My best to all. I will keep an eye on ANIP; I think I must have brought you bad luck. Apologies.
I believe it's only fair for people to know if a poster owns shares or is just gassing. Here's the current situation for LordD. All my newly purchased shares were sold yesterday, and my calls will expire on Thursday. I actually made a few points on that last sale, but what a disaster.
Why sell? The MNK developments, as I thought them throrough, made me less optimistic about CORTI as a meaningful gamechanger. For all of you, I hope I have overreacted. Anyway, I'll check in from time to time and will resume posting if I ever buy back. Good luck to all of you who are hanging in.
My best,
LordD
Jake, I honestly don't think Arthur was dismissing the Medicaid market. If you have something to bonk my defective memory, please post. I had the impression he was hoping for Medicaid sales, too.
Anyway, the bottom line for us is that MNK is now comfy with CMS, and has the ability to sell to Medicaid at a profitable price.