ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP)

[LordDarley]

JTFM, Good to hear from you and hope you are healthy and prospering. I agree that we will probably have a dearth of ANIP news until next winter after the full 2020 results are announced. Ideally the promised 1st quarter Corti filing will be completed on schedule. The 4 month PDUFA date after filing will be ambitious for the FDA; I suspect there will be a longer time involved, and FDA requests for more data.

Due to a longer regulatory process than the optimal 4 months, I don't think Corti will generate new cash until 4th quarter 2021 at the earliest. ANIP will also face tougher competition from Acthar with its lowered subscription-based pricing and more advanced safety data.

As for comparing Arthur with the new CEO, I had not really drawn the distinction you point out. It seems to me Arthur was also keen on branded specialties when they could be found at an opportunistic price. I'm not sure I see any special magic in that regard with the new CEO, but time will tell. Of course, being able to afford any significant new deals is a big problem. With $180M of debt and declining cash flow, how much more leverage can they take on? I think they can't do anything really great until Corti cash flow kicks in, so 2022 would be the earliest for any new acqusisitons of significance (in my view).

For early stage investors with big gains, it probably makes sense to hold on, but that means passing up a FOMO frenzy for other stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and rare animals, and whatver else people will bid up. Anyone with a loss in ANIP is not thinking right (in my view) not to have taken it already and otherwise to take it now; you can always buy back in 30 days if you think ANIP is a better deal than the thousands of other opportunities for capital.