Target Price: $5.38???

https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/fnma/earnings-calendar?ref=side-banners-stock-charts
https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/fnma/price-target

Link

https://www.c-span.org/video/?465549-1/secretaries-mnuchin-carson-testify-affordable-housing

Earning will be retained, NWS will not be stopped for now namely.

Earning will be retained as the beginning of cap build. The cap buffer will be raised "significantly". So there is no more sweep for foreseeable future.

But the NWS will not be cancelled officially for now. The administration need quite some time to plan it. If NWS be void, the administration have to weight a lot of possible option.
1) retain the 10% and give back 191 Billions, so they could keep their SPS?
2) Consider the "Tax Payer" be paid. SPS will no longer valid. What about the over payment?
3) How to deal the warrant?
4) How about the JPS? Convert or not?
5) Maturity climate of the IPO.
6) Settle the numerous litigation.

All above are somehow link together and need to be planned out carefully. It need time, a lot of time.

Meantime, enjoy the cap retain and enjoy the ride.

We are in very positive direction for following reasons:

1) capital requirement now is 100B, which is about 2.13% of 4.7T. This is even better than Ackman's prediction

2) Although Mark claim NWS will not stop for now(My guess is GOV try to save their faces), but significantly raise the capital buffer means the the GSE will retain their earning in forseable future. Pratically, the NWS will stop until settlement before the end of this month.

3) "trade again" means common will trade on big board rather than OTC. So the comon-cancelled is BS :)

4) There will an appeal for the constitunality of the FHFA. But they might not appeal for the "shareholder relief". A settlement will happen most likely

My guess for the share price after all dust settle down will be somewhere between 12.46 to 25.

The fake news media kept their mouth shut about the ruling. Only Maria stand out for the shareholder.

Mr. Mnuchin: You are wrong.

Mnuchin made wrong assumption in the SBC hairing, "If Gov. invested at that time, it will have much higher return".

1) Gov suppose NOT invest in market. Gov is not investment company. Gov suppose stable the market.
2) The Gov fund injection to GSEs are not different than the injection to GM. Do you see the difference?
3) 10% interest is a loan shark interest based on the 0% interest at that time. Taxpayer is already been well paid back.
4) If you willing to issue an 7% interest bond, I will more than happy to jump in. So Gov took advantage of GSE with its dictating executive power.

You are welcome to appeal to SCOTUS. So your name will be listed in hall of shame along with those "winding down" fellows.

Here is the link.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/treasury-secretary-steven-mnuchin-trump-administration-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-reform

We all owe her a big THANKS

THANKS to Maria. She asked such a sharp question. She stand out for the shareholder and justice.

Whatever, as long you/whoever pays you do not worry about your posistions, I am happy for you.

I am long and having a very happy weekend.

This could be pretty positive for Common:

"
2. Recapitalizing the GSEs
As described above, each GSE should remain in conservatorship until it has retained or raised sufficient capital or other loss-absorbing capacity to operate in a safe and sound manner. Potential approaches to recapitalizing a GSE could entail one or more of the following, among other options:
? Eliminating all or a portion of the liquidation preference of Treasury’s senior preferred shares or exchanging all or a portion of that interest for common stock or other interests in the GSE;
? Adjusting the variable dividend on Treasury’s senior preferred shares so as to allow the GSE to retain earnings in excess of the $3 billion capital reserve currently permitted;
? Issuing shares of common or preferred stock, and perhaps also convertible debt or other loss-absorbing instruments, through private or public offerings, perhaps in connection with the exercise of Treasury’s warrants for 79.9% of the GSE’s common stock;
? Negotiating exchange offers for one or more classes of the GSE’s existing junior preferred stock; and
? Placing the GSE in receivership, to the extent permitted by law, to facilitate a restructuring of the capital structure.
"
"? Issuing shares of common or preferred stock, and perhaps also convertible debt or other loss-absorbing instruments, through private or public offerings, perhaps in connection with the exercise of Treasury’s warrants for 79.9% of the GSE’s common stock;" This is very positive for common.

Isn't the greatest.

The greatest is: No dilution, SPS cancelled, Warrant void. We all know that is not possible

Seems it not going anywhare

The market reaction doe not make sense. The plan could be another bla-bla-bla.

Agree, except for the IPO/SPO, which is neccesary path for re-cap

Gov plan release is a positive news. The plan self will be a slightly good one but far from excellent for the shareholder.

Fairholm played a big role(short term) in last few surges. Seems It did not take any position since Nov 2016. Maybe due to that they be warned or their profolio shrinked.

Personaly I do not like the arguement bewteen perfer and common. That is stupid and irrational. I do not see the possibility for the perfer to convert into common at currrent stage. It is also not the gov's best interest.

My guess is:
1) Perfer will get their par.
2) warrent will be excecised at certain price, say around $12-15 and There will another 10bil share issue at price around $6-8, that mean comon share 100% dilution. But this may not be coverd in this plan release.
3) Even if court favor the sharehodlers, there will be no penalty, remember the AIG case? So much for the Justice.
4) Common will go along with the warrent share price.
5) question is will gov take ALL warrent or feedback some to F&F as part of capital build process. The answer most likely is: NO
6) The plan could be the dispoint one, since the gov will kick the can down to the road again in the sense of excution.
7) Best news could be the NWS be stopped in September.

My 2 Cent