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Excellent point. I agree.
Good point. If the Robinhood/Reddit gang decides to take this on as a cause, anything is possible in the short term.
Good point. If the Robinhood/Reddit gang decides to take this on as a cause, anything is possible in the short term.
What just changed in your opinion?
I havent followed things as closely here as I used to. What has changed your opinion on commons with regard to this spspa equitization scenario from before, when you had commons at $5-$8 based on lowered capital standards, if I recall correctly.
Thanks for the response, Amelia. As you might tell from my alias, I'm a CPA. Long time one. I can appreciate what you go through in your job. And thanks for providing a greater perspective about yourself.
I must admit I saw you in a different light before this post.
Glen is a classy guy....and I think a quite smart one. He is good tempered and balanced in a very unbalanced situation here with the GSE's.
Best to you and yours.
Amelia.....feel appreciative for all the great gifts that you have.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.
Glen has always done his best with the information at hand. You can't blame him for things beyond all of our control. This is a lesson that we all need to learn when it comes to the stock market.
More often than not, things that you think will make sense to happen, don't happen in the stock market. And then things that you dont foresee happen suddenly for the good.
Doesnt mean this is always the case. Just points up the unpredictability of the markets.
My feeling is that he is going to be right on this one. Calabria screwed things royally with his ridiculous cap levels. Bringing those down to reality will change this picture significantly.
Bradford.......how do you see the appointment of Thompson affecting things at this point?
Do you see her and administration moving toward utility model?
TIA.
Good, Lol. What an impossibly arrogant individual he was.
The reason Johnson released them (may have been only Fannie at that point) was to take the debt off the government books. I dont have a preferred party, myself. I like to do it the old fashioned way. Issue by issue. Politician by politician.
I really wish there were more than two parties, to take political money more out of the equation, among other reasons. I think that's the real problem with our system. Two parties.
Not that it means much today, but the Johnson administration put the GSE's in private investor's hands for the first time in 1968.
This has always been a complicated political issue.
God, I really, really wish that comes to pass.
But my common sense tells me Thompson needs much more than that. I believe that will ultimately be laughed at by the court, if presented alone.
Frankly, I am stunned that Thompson is even presenting it alone.
Its no longer a political issue.
The Obama administration did nationalize the GSE's. But who is to say that the R's wouldnt have done it anyway, under the conditions that they were in.
In any event, Trump had his chance and plenty of time to fix the situation if he really wanted to.
Talk is one thing, action another.
I'm not a particularly conventionally religious man. But my father definitely was, and these were the words he uttered to me often.
I'm starting to lean more in his direction these days.
The bottom line is the Trump administration used taxpayer money to fight every lawsuit the shareholders put up against them. He then installed Calabria as FHFA head, who also talked a good game before he was in office, before setting ridiculously high capital standards, and doing nothing toward release from conservatorship.
Meanwhile, Trump appointee Mnuchin at Treasury stood by and watched it all.
Unless Thompson has another good card to play, this is going nowhere.
I'm with Bradford's prior thesis. Looks like the only opportunity is a utility model, which would be damn fine by me at this point.
Good job. Thompson obviously thinks he has a good new angle here. I'm not totally sure what he was attempting with that after the fact letter, but he is a very smart guy.
Perhaps a testimony as president added to the letter might suffice, as our other poster noted.
Good point.
I agree. Putting out a statement post-presidency could well be viewed as a self-serving financial presentation by an ex president, if he, friends or family had already invested in Fannie/Freddie, or planned to soon.
That would be something that SCOTUS......or anyone else for that matter....could see through in an instant. And would be a scam of the highest order. We all know that Trump loves to make money, and sometimes does it in at least a somewhat shady fashion.
The fact that Thompson actually put it out there, however, is interesting given all of the above.
What additional information does Thompson have, would be my question.
Good call. Might help!
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000169-c0a9-d90f-a16b-f7bbf24f0001
If they can find a letter like that, it would be 10 X as effective as one that was written after Trump was out of office.
My apologies. I got a little carried away. Didnt realize that was a recent letter that came AFTER Trump was president.
Smoking Gun! Thanks Commander!!!!!
These guys......Ackman the whale, and Glen Bradford.....have made a lot of good common sense along the way given the information at hand.
It's the individuals at the controls who have flip-flopped around like there was no tomorrow, most notably, Trump, Calabria, and Mnuchin....but throw in a few judges and justices into that mix as well.
They are the ones who have made this an incredibly complex and ridiculous situation.
Who would have suspected that the GSE's would be able to start retaining profits again, but with no direct release from conservatorship in sight? And with absolutely ridiculous capital standards imposed by Catmando?
That being said, I believe that Bradford is on to something here. Hopefully, this latest covid variant isnt going to completely reshuffle the deck again.
Thanks. Sounds well thought out. Much appreciated.
Bradford.....Do you see any difference in what will happen with FHFA if Thompson is selected as permanent director over Calhoun?
What would be the implications of such on a post conservatorship utility model, in your opinion?
Thanks, always appreciate your perspective.
Bradford.....do you have a rough valuation for the common share prices if the Biden administration goes to the utility model?
This is what I figured would ultimately happen here. GSE's restructured as regulated utilities.
Great presentation.
Agree. And with rationality behind it now.
Good article....everything is right on course.
What happened yesterday was the same short who made a bad bet against Recaf before they hit oil. He was primed to short against the press release to spin the market interpretation away from the reality.
Fannie and Freddie may net another $50 billion or so this year.
What a travesty for shareholders.
The higher courts apparently have no balls to make a decision that would affect the entire economy, so they are leaving a momentous decision like this to lower courts. That's my read.
Harry Truman would have been appalled and outraged. (The buck stops here).
Yes indeed. It's under most of the public radar, but what you are concluding is exactly what it implies.
The other case that comes to mind is Bush V Gore, where at least SCOTUS indicated that its ruling would in essence be a one off.
This one gave no such indication, which makes it more problematic for the future.
Agree with that short term assessment.
I dont see a single major coming in to take over the entire region.
It's too late in the oil game for a single big oil company to do that.
I can possibly foresee China coming in and making a very big offer.
But my much stronger belief is in the end, it will be farmed out and JV'd as the company has forecasted. This makes far more overall sense to spread the wealth (and the costs) around.
Just shorty desperately seeking sellers to survive.
I dont want to be tied into anything to do with Britney Spears.
That really cheapens the whole process here.
Trump nominated both Mnuchin and Calabria. Its his responsibility.
His administration fought the courts all the way through his four years.
Nahhh. He is in the same spot as LBJ in 1968. Spending out of control and the government doesn't need another big dose of debt on its books.
No nationalization.
If anything, he will try to do the same as Trump and keep them in limbo.
I think the next step in the legal process will be the challenging of the running of the conservatorship itself. And at some point the government will ultimately lose on this. When? Who knows?