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Revenue Potential ?
I am new to this stock, and just looking into it. There seems to be a lot of discussion about dilution and share counts, but little about revenue potential.
Can anyone give me a realistic idea of the potential revenue for this company in the coming months/year ?
Has the company provided any fianacial info like sales, debt load, profit margin etc ?
Thanks.
I do not see that as a possibility. The old JMCP just sits, until someone new comes along and makes a deal to use it. But I suspect Chris and Taylor have some possibilities in the works. They own more JMCP shares than we do
It seems all JMCP asset's are being moved to ONYI. We get our ONYI dividend, and it eventually gets the James Monroe name, and a new symbol.
The old JMCP will be an empty pink shell, and could be used for a RM with a new entity. I guess there would be a R/S at that time, and probably new restricted stock to the merger candidate. But whatever we get out of it is a gift, on top of the ONYI shares. If we were able to get our cost out it, it would be great.
FGFC on Naked Short list
It's up to 5 days on naked short list at buyins.net
However, the monthly short volume has been dropping, been around 10 million shares short volume per month - not that big relative to regular volume, although data is a few weeks old.
There are 2 ways to be on the short list - more short sales, or fewer shares available to borrow. I think we are seeing the results of big buybacks recently - reducing available shares, and starting to squueze any remaining shorts who have not covered during recent drops.
I agree, restricted do matter.
I agree, all shares count. I frequently see penny stock holders say, preferred do not count, restricted do not count, and then proceed to use a big market P/E multiple of 20, and apply it to a penny stock (which typically get a P/E of 5, or less). Then, to really jack up a value, I even saw an occasion where a penny investor applied a P/E ratio to revenue, rather than earnings, and only using the float. Made a one cent stock look like it was worth dollars.
If you are looking to see if a stock can jump for 1 day, due to low float, then fine ignore restricted and preferred. But to value a company for any decent period of time, I use a market cap to total annual sales ratio of 1, or a P/E of 2 to 5. And I use entire O/S, plus half the preferred if converted.
This gives a fairly accurate conservative value.
So, IMO, for AAGH, aprox 50 million O/S, plus 50 million (half the preferred, if converted), = 100 million = market cap today of 12 million, or so.
And I use projected annualized revenues of just under 10 million. So I say we are fairly valued here. Not expecting any big jumps. This is why I sold most shares when I heard about the preferred, and employee option shares.
using the P/E valuation, it's just about the same. 3.6 million annualized (hopefully), times P/E of 3 = current value.
I would also penalize the company for sending potential O/S thru the roof. Increasing potential shares 5 fold was outrageous.
The fact is there are fewer and fewer people on the various FGFC boards with millions of shares. In the past many announced their huge positions. Now many have sold.
So, if the company was diluting, there would be many more people with big lots, not fewer. Someone has to buy them. This leads me to believe the big block trades are indeed the buyback.
auth = 152 million.
Go ahead and check:
http://www.state.de.us/corp/default.shtml. Choose "get corporate status" under lower information section. Then do option 1, enter First Guardian Financial, and Pay $20. Complete status report shows authorized.
My guess is that they are sitting on enough common unrestricted shares to keep total below 152 million.
Delaware Sec State.
Just checked on Delaware Sec Stare web site, auth shares = 152 million.
yes, filled at .0065
Note of Support for FGFC.
I hold quite a few shares, and am not selling any time soon. Since a large shareholder sold today, I wanted to post this message.
The risk reward ratio on FGFC has never been better. Eventually, with financials, this stock will achieve an appropriate price based on real revenues, and we will all do fine. And there will be no way to accumulate a large position at these prices, at the last miniute.
Further, I just wanted to thank "I Love Roth IRA's" for the DD about the realty web site. If the company did not know, thanks to you, they do now.
O/S and float for MCCI ?
Anyone know this info.
E goes away on Monday: Daily list
In addition, look at the today's OTC-BB delinquent list. CSHD has a reason other than delinquent: Opinion Letter Needed
http://www.otcbb.com/DailyListContent/delistings/OTCBBDelOpenReport.pdf
CSHD-E Pending on OTCC-BB site
http://www.otcbb.com/asp/dailylist_detail.asp?d=10/16/2006&mkt_ctg=OTCBB
14:00 10/18/2006 CSHD CSHDE Conversion Solutions Holdings Corp. Common Stock Delinquent **
Is the O/S, and float known ?
The way I look at it, shorts can sell at will. It allows us to accumulate more shares at low prices, and at the same time we can have more confidence in the company based on news releases and income.
Secondly, imo, FGFC will not need to dilute much to cover operating expenses, or obtain loan credit lines. So a low share price should not hurt this company's growth like it would other types of businesses.
Third, the larger the short position, the larger the future squeeze. Especially now, with the market focused on NOBO's, and shorts, and the SEC starting to tighten shorting rules. A financial company like FGFC should be able to institute a dividend in the future, and/or other means to wipe out shorts.
I am just letting this play out over the next 3-6 months, and see where we are at. A market cap under 1 million dollars should not be hard to exceed.
Does anyone know the O/S ?
Well, we are now trading at a post-buyback market cap of about 400 thousand dollars !
Just the profit made by flipping the Canadian land would raise the share price from here.
Definitely a good PR.
Well written, and honest description of the intent behind each project, without fluff. Nice to see.
Yes, amazing.
We are on the same page. Look fwd to seeing you in Iowa.
Dilution.
Let's say a company like JMCP doubles the O/S, and at .0001 raises 2.5 million dollars, but buys an asset worth 10 million. The comapny's net asset value per share would have doubled, after dilution.
The same would hold true for dilution dollars used to fund a start up operation, like building ethanol plants. We need to look at the revenue created by the funds gained form dilution.
I draw a big distinction between this, and a company like CNES,and DDSI, who fund daily cash operating shortfalls, and owners salaries with dilution
I work off a future price to sales ratio of 1. Very realistic for any company, and, early on, easier to predict revenue than earnings or P/E.
So, with 50 billion shares, the company has a market cap of 5 million dollars. To be able to sell at .0002, and up, we need the bid to be at .0002, the ask would be anywhwere from .0003 to .0005, I would think.
An ask of .0005 would represent a market cap of 25 million at todays O/S. So, at the above mentioned price to sales ratio of 1, that would mean 25 million in JMCP annual sales, including equity appreciation from any land deals.
If you feel you can believe even part of company projections, they will hit this, no problem. If you do not believe than can hit these rev projections, I would suggest buying a different stock instead.
This is just how I make stock judgement calls.
I understand. No problem. We all make our on choices on the risk / reward balance on any given stock. It's always a judgement call, with so many promises made daily by penny stocks.
I do not put all eggs in any one basket, but I do look for stocks where, if company projections are true, I can experience dramatic revenue per share growth. Then I try to get my cost out at some point, and let the rest ride.
Buyback not a good option.
I think JMCP investors should realize, IMO, a buy back is not the right move now, and definitely not about to happen. Why would a company spend money to buyback shares when they are issuing shares to raise investment capital. Asking for one is just because people want a price jump so they can flip it. It is unfortunate, but in penny stocks, the best interests of the company (dramatic long term profit growth) do not match the typical penny buyer (impatient, and impulsive trading and flipping). Buybacks are mor appropriate when a company has more earnings than investment needs, and at the smae time have an undervalued share price. Other times, it can happen, as with FGFC, when a company has access to more debt capital than it needs to grow. JMCP does not have this at this time.
A company at this stage needs to raise capital, but it should be used to grow shareholder value, not spent on wasted operating expenses and consumed by overhead. This is a big difference. Dilution is not always bad. You should look at what the dilution or borrowing accomplishes. Do the funds raised buy assets which will produce more revenue than the cost ? (Return on capital). The problem is that most pennies consume too much cash just existing - salaries, long term expensive research, etc.
I can't even count how many times I have seen posts on stock message boards form traders claiming to be long term holders in a particular stock. Then, 1 day later, they are out, and in a new stock, saying they will jump back in later. It's just Bizzare. Distinctions need to be made between companies going nowhere, and ones capable of significant long term growth, and JMCP should be held.
JMCP is doing a great job getting multiple projects going with little cash. They have low overhead, and inexpensive, productive research.
It may just sit here at .0001 while things get going, but we are not down, we just can't sell quick. But the day it does go up, we will be up 100 %. And it gives us a long time to accumulate shares at rock bottom, while getting positive news, and management feedback along the way to confirm our buy decisions. When the revenue arrives, we will be worth much more.
6digits - paltalk.
Just checked. It's actually pages 1006 - 1025
tcl, Paltalk posts - link
Start here with Mensah call, then following 10 pages for R. Harris info.
HotStockMarket.com
CSHD-September forum
Page 1006 - 1016, for posts about Dr mensah, and R. Harris calls.
I was not on the Paltalk call.
Please read posts on other sites from people who were.
I am not on call.
Just reporting info from people who are.
Go to HSM and read posts for yourselves.
I just know I always appreciated it when people kept me updated on interviews I could not hear.
Rufus Call Info, Letter is false.
rufus said the letter is false
Dr. mensah will get paid, JV is on.
said he told us these things would happen....our-street
Paltalk, sounds good so far.
I am not in. I will try to repost with room name
Platalk causes PC errors for me. Posts on HSM about conversations.
Rufus is on Paltalk now.
Dr Mensah on Paltalk again.
Seems he said he is waiting for funding, wants to go ahead.
I was not on the call.
Agreed.
I generally agree with your post. I could understand CSHD not releasing dynamic news prior to holiday week. Everything was slow last week. But I do want to see news by the middle of this coming week.
Form 144 Sales.
I held some restricted stock in another company for several years. After 1 year, I was able to file a form 144, IN CASE I wanted to sell shares, with a restricted legend, in the following 3-4 months. After that, if I still held the shares, I had to file another form 144 again, to open another 3-4 month window.
After the 2 year mark, I had the option of sending the certificates to the transfer agent, and having them re-issued, without the restrictive legend. Then I was able to deposit them in my trading account, and trade normally.
So, many of the form 144 filings are people expecting they might want to sell soon. If there is a price reset, who wouldn't ??
Why such a mean post ?
Anyone know the O/S ?
Pink sheets.com data is old.
Also, company web site is very minimal... any better place to go for corporate info ?
P/E is 35.
I think the way to calculate P/E is to take earnings for second quarter only, multiply by 4 to annualize. This is 1.5 million
$ 1,500,000 divided by 543 million shares = .00275 per share.
Current share price = .096 divided by .00275 earnings = P/E of 35
(I think quotes of a 120 P/E may not of annualized earnings).
I would use current quarter earnings, times 4 to annualize, because this company is growing rapidly. I would not use the 6 month totals.
yes, sent letter in last week.
Do you know if many others are going ?
Shareholder meeting.
Are any posters here going to the fall shareholder meeting ?
CHDT Price and P/E
SLJB (Suija) is a great company, with aggressive rev growth, and it is trading at a P/E of below 4. The otc does not typically get big market P/E ratios, once emotion settles down.
CHDT at a 4 P/E would trade at 1 cent. I personally think a P/E of 20 would be justified, but based on current earnings.
But that = 5 cents.