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I'm with you dj. C-1000 order backlog has also increased recently and quantity/purchaser information has yet to be announced. I believe the EoQ3 existing C-1000 backlog is ~1100 and represents ~$70MM in revenue. USPS RFPs for NGDV coming before boy though we may not hear of it due to NDAs. Heck, they could have already been issued given that LMC has confidence of BGL and terms of WKHS/LMC arrangement mention the ability for a industry partner taking a 20% interest in WKHS as a precondition for LMC's positioning as a prime bidder on any WKHS subcontracting opportunities. Plenty of positives coming and, as you noted, there is a 'glass half full' viewpoint to the Horsefly partnership with Moog. Not sure why powerbattles is thinking we were ever going to receive $60MM for SureFly. I had seen them quote ~$20-$30MM but as I noted in my last post I think they cut a friendly arrangement with Moog to secure the JV partnership. Discount on the sale of SF may have acted as a work-around sort of pay=in for the technologies Moog will commit to developing the IP further. After all, they're 15x our market cap with an established presence in the aerospace/defense sector. Another iron in the fire for WKHS which will likely offer stronger margins to the company than the core business. Bring it on.
Don't forget the Moog JV and sale of SureFly to Moog should be announced/formalized this week. $4MM for SureFly and 50/50 partnership for the development of HorseFly for a couple of years. WKHS is licensing IP to this effort for the period but WKHS retains ownership of HorseFly IP. Moog had to explore applications as a part of their DD on HorseFly so it's likely that this JV will bear fruit in time. Everyone that was ragging on the SureFly sale price versus the anticipated figure which management had proffered prior to this agreement seems to think that's the best price they could receive. IMO they made a friendly deal with Moog on SureFly in order to find a development partner for HorseFly which can bring it to market beyond the delivery vehicle application. Moog will give them access to customers WKHS would likely not be able to access on their own as the defense market is a relatively defined pool of players. Traded an upfront, one-time payment in exchange for a new runway for CF to WKHS. I could see the military wanting to use the HorseFly to move items between FoBs in contested areas of conflict as the infrared docking feature offers a nice way for logistics to relay with minimal time required on the part of personnel at the location. Think of it as relay for ammo/medical/food/comms to personnel. In a place like Afghanistan where terrain is a major hurdle it would be quite useful.
Sorry but I don't remember the details of the botched application as it's been quite a while since that happened and I track roughly a dozen names at a time. The applications were re-submitted under Henry after the mistakes/deficiencies were addressed. We have already advanced through the process to a point which confirms that our applications are compliant this time. The process is exceptionally byzantine and arduous so simply getting the applications straightened out and resubmitted was a positive for XXII. We're talking 100,000+ pages of material submitted to the FDA the second go-round.
I sincerely believe that Henry's spat with that disgruntled retail investor on his last CC was the the final straw after the mistake on our initial app submissions to the FDA which had to be withdrawn. He told the guy, who was really quite a jack hole, to "sell his shares". I've been in the market 30 years and never heard a CEO say something like that on a call. If I was on BoD I know I would have been seriously concerned about having him as the point-man for the business after that remark. I think Henry contributed to this company and shouldn't be turned into a total pariah but having Fleet in charge is an improvement from Henry.
The decision to 'withdrawal' (i.e. delay) the NPRM was made on 10/23 and the registrar is only updated twice a year. Today happens to be one of those update periods. Even if Fleet knew about it when you theorize I seriously doubt he is allowed to announce any FDA developments prior to the Agency making a public statement.
"FDA spokesman Michael Felberbaum said the omission from the so-called unified agenda does not mean the FDA will stop working on it. He said the agency is reviewing comments it received in response to the proposal to cap nicotine levels in cigarettes."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/20/tobacco-stocks-rise-on-report-that-fda-wont-cut-nicotine-levels-in-cigarettes.html
I never owned this name on the expectation for the NPRM but people need to calm down. The FDA has no commissioner in place at the moment and they received over 7700 statements during the public comment period. They're also receiving a tremendous amount of flak over the Ecig debacle when it comes to youth adoption rates. MRTP and PMTA are still on track. VLN mandate might get back on schedule in 2020. Regardless, I am bullish on XXII and seriously increased my position today. The new commissioner's background is oncology. Ring a bell? VLN is coming and there is a serious market for it without the VLN mandate. Consumer surveys say as much. Research the size of the smoking cessation market in the US and you'll realize that the play here has always been getting a VLN product to market first. The VLN mandate should not be anyone's base-line scenario for seeing upside potential in XXII.
Agreed, on all accounts!
Stability & Blanka -- thanks for your contributions yesterday! There's a good deal of information to digest and it's all very encouraging! So to summarize some of the #s:
- WKHS will receive a 4% gross commission on every W-15 pre-order/LOI that is successfully converted to LMC. They had 6,000 pre-orders (supposedly all through Ryder) at a sticker of $52,000. Assuming they convert only 50% of those pre-orders and drop the sticker price to $39,000 (like Stability forecasts conservatively) that's $4.68MM for WKHS.
- They also receive a 1% royalty on each truck LMC produces up to the 200,000 unit cap. Let's say these trucks retail for $39,000 like Stability quoted, for the sake of conservative estimates. They also receive a 1% payment from LMC for the value of funds raised. Analysts had predicted that Lordstown could require $200MM-$300MM for purchase and retro-fitting. Let's just go way lower and say the age is $100MM in LMC's case. That's $1MM cash infusion to WKHS at some point in addition to a potential lifetime royalty from LMC of ~$77MM (i.e. the $78MM would-be royalty less the $1MM cash infusion from LMC cap raise payable to WKHS).
On a conservative unit price estimate and only 50% conversion of LOIs for W-15, that's potentially ~$82.7MM flowing towards WKHS in the coming years for a venture which has been spun out. Not to mention the other irons in the fire. The most interesting tidbit of information from the past two days is something which I have not seen mentioned very often. If you go back and look at the Thursday publication of the LMC - WKHS relationship there is a discussion of LMC's rights to bid as a subcontractor on future work orders from WKHS and a condition for which LMC may be pre-empted as a sub on manufacturing. "LMC will have the right, with limited exceptions, to match the best competing offer as a subcontractor for the Company in the event the Company should need to engage a subcontractor in connection with larger potential production contracts to assemble such vehicles utilizing its existing capabilities and technologies. The limited exceptions include the event in which the Company elects to award a subcontract for the manufacturing or assembly to a strategic partner owning in excess of 19% of the Company.""
From: http://www.conferencecalltranscripts.org/8/summary2/?id=7024927 ---- GM will be taking a major stake in us in the coming year IMO.
GM confirms sale of Lordstown plant to LMC. Mentions WKHS backing and 10% ownership stake in LMC. Check Reuters or Bloomberg. Fireworks show set to continue all day tomorrow! GLTA long.
I've been away from this name since the late AMPD/early WKHS days so it might have been discussed since but back in '15 and perhaps early '16 WKHS would discuss the figures on the average fleet route distance for medium duty class trucks in the US. I don't remember the specific values but the bell curve clearly showed that the vast majority of routes would fall below the ~250mi. range that WKHS offers today. When people question the viability of the duration our system may afford I fail to understand their perspective. WKHS target market is not long-distance trucking and a 250mi. trip would take you from Washington DC to NYC with ~25 miles to spare. Thanks couchtater for highlighting the reality of the type of routes WKHS is targeting. Class 3-6 trucks are almost always applied to daily routines rather than over the road trucking. Even so, 250 miles can take you a good way as you can see! GLTA.
Thanks TBV and sorry for confusion! It will be interesting to see how Moog intends to develop the Horsefly platform. UAS are clearly an area of interest for the military as a way of handling certain functions in a combat scenario without needing to risk lives. For instance, it could potentially serve as a non-combatant supply relay between FOBs and/or vehicles? Who knows? Commercial side applications certainly abound. Encouraging to see another pathway to monetizing the Horsefly asset while retaining the IP. GL to you and all long.
One correction Trustbutverify -- The JV is for the SureFly asset. Moog is essentially giving them $4MM for 50% ownership of the asset and the opportunity to further develop and market the item. I'm very pleased with this news. Outright sale would have fetched a larger bag of loot but we are retaining all IP pertaining to HorseFly UAS patent(s) in addition to the opportunity to benefit from future market opportunities. That's a big deal for me, at least. Also, sale comes with a marginal cost savings for WKHS as the Surefly JV will be paying ~$25k/yr. in leasing costs to WKHS.
Please let me know if I am mistaken on any of these points as I have only had a chance to quickly scan the 8K. GL to everyone long here!
Here's the quote I found most interesting from the Detroit Free Press article you shared:
"They made some gains, but GM is saying a hard no to a few things," said a UAW local chairman familiar with the talks and who asked to not be identified because he is not authorized to speak for the union."
One of those "hard no's" is most likely in regards to Lordstown. Hard no to allocating a new GM product at the facility. Only a matter of time! Hope everyone had a nice weekend.
I believe that the funding for Lordstown has to be in-place for GM to be taking the proposal from Burns as seriously as they have thus far. GM's op-ed published in the NYT several months ago defending WKHS and the proposed takeover at Lordstown is what really convinced me that they were serious about this vision for Lordstown. I just don't see them taking the risk to their reputation without some convincing that the LMC opportunity has legs. There's other evidence for the position such as Barra telling the POTUS that they were doing so, GM telling the UAW about this objective for Lordstown in non-negotiable terms, etc. Just my two cents. Plus, for whatever it might be worth, the screenshots from the ostensible LMC website which were captured several weeks ago and shared on the stock twits board indicate Brown, Gibbons, Lang & Co. as a financing partner. Mid-market IB with an office in Cleveland. Their logo was shown on the ostensible LMC website as a stylized 'BGL' under the 'Financing Partners' heading, or something to that effect in terms of language. Check my post history for more info on the supposed screenshots as I detailed what I saw posted on ST the morning after. Apparently the web developers were working on the page and didn't have it password protected or something like that. To be clear, I am only reporting on what I saw others share there so I can't speak to authenticity other than to say several user profiles were able to post screenshots from the site during what seemed like an ~20min. window.
Brutal trading recently (i.e. -50% past 11 sessions, 10/11 red). However, at least we know WKHS isn't going belly-up anytime soon. They've posted two job opportunities in the past 24 hours and a total of six since 7/30. Interesting to see that they are now billing themselves as 'Workhorse Technologies' in these listings. At the Gateway Conference Hughes referred to WKHS as a technology provider and clearly they're trying to pivot their image a bit from a strict focus on medium-duty vehicle manufacturing. Highly recommend listening to the investor presentation if you're interested in the company.
Job postings: https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=Workhorse&rbc=Workhorse+Technologies+Inc&jcid=394ebc2a52557a16
I'm not a swing trader like some of you guys and I can understand why you're moving on or on the sidelines for now. Congrats on your trades and GL to you in the future. I'm staying in as I'm speculating on the potential for further headlines to keep pushing this name to greater public awareness. USPS decision being delayed is disappointing but by no means a major negative development IMO, aside from the fact that the tender will not be coming this month. This company hit ~$400MM market cap several years ago when it was announced that they were selected as a semi-finalist in the USPS NGDV competition and awarded a prototype contract for six vehicles. Mind you that WKHS cash position today is stronger than it was back then when it hit $400MM. Now we've received news that the odds of winning a USPS contract are set at a baseline probability of ~50% and that the price tag per vehicle will no longer be penned in at the old price tag of $25-$35k. USPS will be willing to pay higher price tag per vehicle as they will focus on total lifecycle cost of vehicle. WKHS value proposition to delivery companies has long been centered around the fact that in the long run an electric fleet is more cost effective for managers. Aside from the USPS iron, there are several other things in the fire with more immediate timelines including fate of LMC/GM/UAW negotiations and Surefly Octocopter sale. That's likely to happen in Q4 and with UPS N-GEN deliveries to start in Q4 the company's next conference call should help to build some confidence with investors. GLTA.
PS -- If anyone wants to throw out their prediction for the final USPS NGDV awards, let's hear them! My very mundane prediction is a 60/40 NGDV contract split between WKHS/VT Hackney team and Ford/Oshkosh, respectively. Ford/Oshkosh sprinter vans with ICE are certainly a pragmatic solution and offer Trump some political capital in Wisconsin.
We're down 6% on what appears to be someone panic selling in a dump around 10:16-10:17 AM. Either that or yet another stop loss raid by shorts as some don't seem to comprehend how easy it is to raid SL's on a microcap. It's one thing to use them as a day trader but downright silly if you're speculating as a long on this name waiting for further developments re: LMC and/or USPS NGDV. The UAW members voting to approve a strike, if necessary, is my best estimate as to any news item that could have triggered the fire sale. Not exactly a novel development in terms of the UAW negotiating playbook (or any negotiator's book) as you're simply indicating to the big three that you're willing to strike, if necessary. Those of us that have been hanging around here since May 8 (or earlier) just see this as another day for a volatile name. Upward trend is still intact IMO and GLTA long.
PS - To Chubbs and all others in the potential path of Dorian, please stay safe! We might all be here to make money but life is invaluable.
Stay safe Chubbs!
I agree with oilon, chubbs and tableforone. In fact, in the interest of grinding some gears, I think we're going to $12 in time. Blurb published this morning on Vindy:
"Gov. Mike DeWine said today the state will offer an incentive package to the Lordstown Motors Corp. if it is successful in its efforts to purchase the idled General Motors plant in Lordstown.
He said the state has made it clear it would be “very, very open and very generous“ with a package. But, he said, the company first must raise the capital needed to operate the facility. That amount is about $350 million to $500 million."
http://www.vindy.com/news/2019/aug/29/dewine-state-prepared-offer-generous-incentives-lo/?nw
Brown, Gibbons, Lang & Co. already identified as a financial partner per the leaked screenshots from LMC page. DeWine wouldn't be speaking publicly about incentives for LMC if funding wasn't veritably secured. No surprise that this has come along but great news to see some confirmation of the incentives.
If anyone here hasn't seen the ostensible LMC.com screenshots posted last evening on the ST WKHS board, I'll relay what I recall seeing. I don't check there often since there's so much clutter but there seems to have been a solid catch this time. I believe the posts were made ~9-11PM EST but possibly a bit earlier than that if you'd like to investigate for yourself. Here are some of the findings which, again, are not my own:
- A financing partner's logo was shown as reading 'BGL'. Believed to be Brown, Gibbons, Lang & Co. (mid-market firm) acting as LMC capital partner.
- LMC executives include personnel from Tesla, Karma Automotive & GM.
- LMC to license WKHS technology for building electric trucks and fleet vehicles. (* I took fleet vehicles as a reference to vehicles such as the GMC Savana rather than medium duty trucks. Perhaps this would cover the USPS NGDV work as well. If you refer back to the May Baron's article titled something along the lines of "That time Tesla bought a plant/factory" there's an auto analyst commenting on how Lordstown could be used to build electric trucks and fleet vans such as the GMC Savana. I believe this was an auto industry research analyst rather than a sell-side analyst and it's the only comment I recall seeing to this effect. It struck me as a keen speculation.*)
- Rendering (shot?) of the front-end of a Lordstown Motors electric truck which appears to be a slightly reconfigured/updated design of the W-15. Strong resemblance to the current Silverado's front-end. Headlights are the giveaway.
- Discussion of WKHS partnership and some background on WKHS as a technology provider to LMC.
That's all I can remember but like I said earlier in this post, you can locate these for yourself if you scroll back to last evening's history. GLTA.
Solyndra. What a disaster!
LOL it's been an hour since my prediction and John is spewing his talking points! Thanks John! Here's some contact information to help you on your crusade to save investors from WKHS:
Rick E. Hansen
Assistant General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
General Motors Company
Mail Code 482-C24-A68
300 Renaissance Center
Detroit, Michigan 48265
Arosa Capital Management
New York:
55 Hudson Yards
550 West 34th Street
Suite 2800
New York, New York
10036 United States
Phone:
(212) 218-0550
Email:
inquiry@arosacapital.com
Marathon Capital
200 West Madison Street, Suite 3650
Chicago, IL 60606
Phone: 312-989-1350
Fax: 312-989-1385
Good luck John we're rooting for you!
No problem! Now back to our regularly scheduled drivel courtesy of JohnConnor. Did you know that Lordstown is 600 football fields large?? Did you know that Workhorse is not buying Lordstown?? Such insight!
Workhorse has a letter of intent signed with UPS to conduct testing with the horsefly drone in San Diego. They will be compensated for this testing.
Workhorse has lined up a purchase for the Surefly personal copter and will close on a transaction this CY.
W-15 to be built at Lordstown and the USPS NGDV can be built there as well. Union City to house production of N-GEN variants.
USPS contract sounds like it's in the bag. Just waiting for Uncle Sam to get off his butt and announce.
It sounds like the UAW/GM negotiations are the hold up on LMC developments for now. Contract expires in mid-September and GM can do whatever they want after that but UAW will want workers in Lordstown so likely to hear an agreement before mid-September.
1100 N-GEN backlog mostly concentrated in the 1000 cubic ft model but Hughes expects 650 cubic foot orders to outpace moving forward as the dimensions appeal to a wider range of fleet customers.
No dilution to announce and they expect capital needs to be met via Marathon's revolver and previously provided financing via Arosa.
I was pleased with how the call went but that's just me! GLTA long.
Is yesterday and this morning's price action all a result of Arosa CM finally reading John's groundbreaking research?? I'm going golfing and looking forward to the weekend! I hope that all of you will have a great weekend as well and see you Monday!
Shocked to see that the fearmongers aren't out in force! No worries here. Trend is in tact. Also, regarding Pence's comments and the subsequent dispute by media outlets, I'm inclined to take the word of the VP over that of two OH state representatives and/or the Mayor of Lordstown. Information is far more likely to be relayed to WH prior to anyone in politics at a more parochial level. WKHS would have refuted the statement made by Pence if it were inaccurate. Silence is golden in this case. Also, the two state reps that threw cold water on Pence's remarks are meeting with WKHS again tomorrow to learn more about purported developments at Lordstown. GLTA long!
Look at what's on the docket for POTUS at 6:35 PM this evening. Shorts have a death wish!
https://factba.se/topic/calendar
Nice day so far. Trump is holding a rally in Cincinnati on Thursday and Pence is visiting Magna International's new facility near Columbus, OH tomorrow. Magna supplied GM in Lordstown and had a manufacturing presence there as well. They've since closed the facility laying off 120 workers. Auto manufacturing jobs offer one of the highest job multipliers in an area where they are located. ~5.7x local employment opportunities arise for each auto manufacturing job brought to a region. Interesting signals from the political tea leaves. GLTA.
He's either shorting WKHS or paid by someone else that is to throw cold water on this name. A third, though far less likely option, is that he has some personal vendetta against this company. He has a history of posting across StockTwits, Yahoo Forums and here with different handles yet he claims his only interest in this company is a philosophical one. Totally normal for someone to coordinate a negative campaign against a name in which they have no vested interest. Anyone else remember his post where he told us that we needed to find God for being long this name? I believe we dropped like 4-5% then he posted that in all caps. There's a reason he was kicked off of StockTwits, which isn't exactly an easy thing to accomplish. Seems like every microcap attracts at least one nuisance like him and they can remain for years spewing the same thing. Here's to hoping that he's still here in several years serving as our court jester. Again, John, send your DD to Arosa Capital Management. Seeing how most of us here are beyond redemption you need to turn your divine light towards the big boys and help them find God!
John, you keep mentioning how one of WKHS biggest shareholders 'dumped' shares. Arosa CM (i.e. Til Bechtolsheimer) sold 178,333 shares for ~$0.908/sh. (~$161,987) across May 2-3. They're still holding 11,257,197 common shares. 9.99% stakeholder. When Arosa committed to a $25MM private placement on 5/31 they took on warrants for 2.26MM shares at $1.62/share. If the sky was falling at $0.91 then why would they accept warrants at such a valuation? Clearly, they are going to lose their pants and you should alert them before it's too late!
Merely conjecture but I'd argue that WKHS will continue the trend until the USPS renders a decision on NGDV award(s) and/or Lordstown's fate is sealed. Yes, pullbacks are bound to occur along the way but I think it's a reach to believe that this name will collapse prior to either of these events. If that makes me a pumper then so be it. After all, I'm long. If I remember correctly this name reached a market cap of ~$350-$375MM back in 2016 on the news of USPS awarding them a NGDV prototype contract. At that point I walked away but I returned on May 8 this year as I knew well enough what Lordstown could mean for them. GLTA.
Agreed. If we are limiting ourselves to speculation as to which news event served as today's catalyst, I'd sooner say the UAW 1112 President throwing in the towel was the cause. For those unaware, President of Lordstown UAW announced today that he will be moving to GM's Bedford, IN plant. Here's a quote from the article (link below):
"“I think 1112 is going to be viable for a few years here, and I’m also still confident that some product will come to Lordstown, whether it’s General Motors or not,” Green said. “But I really don’t believe that plant is just going to sit empty.”
Green (i.e. 1112 President) had previously made clear his intentions to stay behind while 1112 members were being transferred and wait for GM to deliver a new product to Lordstown.
https://www.wkbn.com/news/local-news/uaw-president-leaving-to-take-job-at-gm-plant-in-indiana/
Dang! My apologies as I was the first person to share that link here earlier today. It was posted on the Yahoo forum and I wanted to share it with all of you. No one can say for certain what was the cause for today's bump but I seriously doubt that any info shared on social media pages for WKHS was the cause. 2:58 PM had ~384k shares traded and I doubt a $1.5MM inflow came on this news alone. As others have stated, there are several irons in the fire and potential catalysts in the near-term abound. I really think that we're just melting up on momentum as those holding long take away float from traders and new entrants alike. But that's just me. GLTA.
More good news: "UPS drone delivery testing kicked off on Monday with a successful package delivery alongside a human driver. In 2018 the FAA chose UPS to sit on its drone advisory committee.
On Monday, UPS tested a Workhorse HorseFly UAV Delivery drone that launches from the top of a UPS package car.
Article published a few hours ago, test occurred on Monday. GLTA longs.
https://www.macobserver.com/news/ups-drone-delivery/
PS -- chubbs, just wanted to say I love your name. "Damn alligator bit my hand off!"
To borrow a turn of phrase from you, "Sir you are lying" --
"As of the Filing Date, Arosa Opportunistic Fund beneficially owns, subject to the Exercise Limitation, an aggregate of 11,257,197 shares of Common Stock, including (i) 1,850,000 shares of Common Stock and (ii) 9,407,197 shares of Common Stock underlying the Warrants. Arosa Capital and Mr. Bechtolsheimer may be deemed to beneficially own the shares of Common Stock and the Warrants reported herein. Thus, the Reporting Persons may be deemed to beneficially own 9.99% of the shares of Common Stock of the Company deemed issued and outstanding. In addition, the Reporting Persons beneficially own 305,000 shares of Preferred Stock."
Passage provided verbatim from thee bottom of the link you provided, within Item 5 'Interest in Securities of the Company'.
The 13-D link shows that Arosa sold 178,333 shares on 5/2-5/3 for a blended price of ~$0.91/share. Arosa's $25MM capital infusion transacted on 5/31. They sold ~$160k in advance of this transaction in order to avoid control person status. They're still holding ~9.99% of common per the 13-D filed on 5/31 or about 11.26MM shares of common (in addition to preferred shares). If you're reading the tea leaves that's hardly a sign that this is a sinking ship. Arosa is run by the grandson of German billionaire Karl-Heinz Kipp. I'll defer to their judgment over your own.
There is no evidence to back your claim that Arosa CM has liquidated the shares available to them via warrants. Their latest 13F filing dates to 3/31/19. You have 45 days after EOQ to file 13F so you should have some clarification by 8/15/19. I read through the post on your site and it's nothing more than a propaganda piece. Everyone here knows how to locate and read SEC filings. You're dogging the weak financials of a development stage vehicle manufacturer as if it's something we haven't seen before. Accept that others are playing this for speculation on forward-looking opportunities rather than rear-view fundamentals. I'd recommend that you contact Arosa CM and share your findings with them as clearly they lack your powerful insights.
On this kind of volume? Absolutely! Candle and volume pattern replicating the trough which formed in early July. Have a nice evening!
JP Morgan once said something along the lines of "Every man has two reasons for doing something: a good reason and the real reason." I've been lurking around here since the May 8 tweet and I finally joined today. I am long and would like to say thanks to all that contribute here. This is still the best forum online for WKHS despite the recent arrival of a traveling preacher. GLTA.