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I just read the Stifel presentation. They missed success by one patient.
Wow. Too small a trial.
What is the best source of current institutional holdings?
Runncoach,
However it goes, just want to say thanks for your posts, both in their substance and their style.
AlanF
Please look at figure 1; .04 and .2nm worked. From my calculation the 20 dose would be .07 nm in the brain, the 40, 0.14. So both should have worked. I think the trial will work but that is my worry
Thank you for a serious question. Dosing. In the preclinical data quoted in the Farlow article, pkc was triggered successfully at two doses. Translating to the trial, the 20 and 40 doses should have worked. I think trial will work but that is my concern.
The data for Impala should get better during the open label time period, based on the literature. In a way, the later the FDA meeting the better. I believe it is scheduled for October.
But they get the data, and don’t they then have to do the statistics?
Options valuing the stock around $10.50
Indicia of value:
October 19 options value the company at $14.30. $6 to buy the stock is cheap.
Say there is a 50% chance the trial succeeds. Stock will go to $20 if it succeeds. Should be trading around $10.
Stock is cheap.
We very quickly get a market cap of 10x what it is now.
From the option chain the trial will for sure have reported by October 18th, with a much higher imputed value than present values.
The company has said Q3, so between now and September 30.
When the results are unblinded they will go on full lockdown until released.
You can buy the stock at $5 and change and get a perpetual option.
The options reflect risk reward. Trial results in Q3. By October the stock will be $20+ on way to $50, or $1.25. The premium paid for the option gives an idea of the odds.
Risk reward. The odds of the trial succeeding are some percentage. I think high.
If the trial succeeds you get 10X your money, by the end of this year.
Helpful quote. Thanks.
Many thanks
Any word from the shareholders meeting?
They have the data but they do not know which patients were on drug and which were off drug. They are not collecting any more data from patients.
Data have not been unblinded. The press release notes data collection has been completed. After that step, the data has to be scrubbed- entries checked, and they make sure everything is properly input into the computer. Then they unblind and analyze. The primary endpoints they will calculate immediately, but they’ll work on other endpoints and analysis. They botched the last trial by releasing too quickly so I hope in this one they take their time.
They would not be having a shareholders meeting if data were unblinded.
There have been no leaks. The trial is still blinded.
Options price the stock at about $10 in October.
The memantine-naive data will be dispositive. High stakes.
15 out of 6 patients improving is compelling. Doesn’t happen in the clinic.
Anyone going to the shareholder meeting? I think it is tomorrow.
Risk/reward. If one thinks there is a 25% chance of success for the trial, the stock is a buy given the upside. Based on the journal article, the odds are better than that. In addition, given the lack of existing therapies, the FDA will lean over backwards to further bryostatin if there is any indication of benefit. So I am a buyer here, in small amounts given existing position.
Option gurus. Would anyone who understands options please take a look at the October options and post what current value of the stock is indicated? Would be appreciated.
Odds. Even if the trial has a 50% chance of success the stock is a buy here, as the therapeutic indication is so significant that the upside is correspondingly large. The preclinical studies are what clinched it for me.
Risk reward. If the trial succeeds, you are at 10x+. I think the odds of success are high- 80% or better. So from my analysis a good risk/reward.
It’s an article that deserves a reasoned response. It doesn’t address really the statistics or the preclinical work on synaptic growth.
I’ve reviewed the preclinical work Alkon has published, and the journal article. I think the trial succeeds, with a pretty high conviction level. The KOL conference should be interesting, especially if the questioning is detailed.
In a month or two the results will be out and definitive.
Is there any document dated prior to the trial stating memantine should block bryostatin due to affinity for same receptor? If there is, that would make the memantine naive thesis less post-hoc.
Is there anything in the literature about namenda blocking PKCe pathway? And possible effect on therapeutics?
Memantine-naive was pre-specified, as was Aricept-naive.
Thank you for the link.
The report is good, and the journal article better. The statistics are consistent.
My conclusion is trial succeeds and then whether there are 25NM or 35MM shares outstanding is immaterial.
I think trial succeeds and have made a sizable investment for me in the company.
I’ve been reading these messages with interest. Everything going on now is meaningless until the trial results come. Then it’s hero or zero as someone wrote. Stock will either do great or be a penny stock.