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Yes, agreed its gotta to change but not sure what will make it. Seems like a generational shift occurring in the country with a bunch of whiners and sissies taking over life in America. can you even imagine the Vietnam generation crying constantly over some disease and shutting themselves indoors for months and months??? Whatever happened to the gutsy can-do spirit and all that American exceptionalism.
Guess it got hijacked by these liberals and their socialist experiments that will finally draw the whole world into another big depression, should this go on for much longer. Can't imagine all those NASA shuttle astronauts whining about going into space because they're afraid of catching some unknown bugs in space!! Hilarious.
Any reasoning for your optimism? Seems to me that oil prices have and will continue to flatline for 2020-21, and even beyond maybe. No new CAPEX expected, jobs losses, bankruptcies and just no appetite for any of these shale players to muck around with their debt-laden balance sheets.
Just my opinion though, everyone's free to draw their own conclusion and make their own decisions.
Anyone notice how that nutjob Fauci continues to rant, rave, rage on TV? He'll singlehandedly accomplish what even Greenspan and Bernanke couldn't do -- the most severe depression of the 21st century if he doesn't shut up about the damn china virus now.
Sounds futuristic and probably is. Key point is that the massive worldwide infrastructure thats been vested in oil&gas industry did not happen in 10 years or even 20. 1880s was when oil began its long journey, so its literally 140-150 years of successive generations of investing and reaping. The sunk costs are too huge for people, govts and companies to simply walk away from.
Also, today in 2020, EV is < 1% of vehicles in the US (800 million and growing) and even lesser globally. That won't change for another 40-50 years, almost guaranteed. Plus batteries in cars, trucks are one thing, storage and distribution on industrial scale of non-fossil-fuel generated power/electricity is simply ANOTHER MATTER. And the world is not at all ready to give up PLASTICS, the biggest and most important derivative product of petroleum that is now inbuilt into our DNA, and that has literally millions of applications. And speaking of auto, aviation and shipping are the other 2 transport uses that won't be switching anytime soon. Try running those massive ship engines and power turbines on batteries.
Don't forget - fossil fuel industry is incrementally growing on already developed and spread out infrastructure. Again, not only will it take decades to develop a parallel competing one at great cost advantage, the "habits" of billions over multiple generations are not that easy to reshape and redirect.
I must add there's also the "P-Tin" factor and since that entire swath of land is a massive commie bloc, the US, Japan, S. Korea and western EU are understandably worried about all the muscle flexing by China esp. in the South China Sea. You all should read up on the recently approved sales of 105 JSF (Joint Strike Fighter) F35s to Japan (Price Tag: $23 billion) and several advanced AWACS sales to Germany, Belgium and other European allies. There is something definitely going on, its not just Pompeo running for office from Kansas.
China and India are headed for a major confrontation between now and end of Sept. Like 1962, India will likely win and might even kick Pak in the rear while they're at it. Stars are perfectly aligned as well. Could be an interesting summer, we shall see.
Needless to say, it will spark an oil rally, US will side with India (both geopolitical as well as strategic ally) and the world anyway is PISSED OFF at China who really has no friends anywhere now.
Point taken. Ahh, Gatlinburg... the winding mountain roads, bears in the woods, and Dolly Parton water park (don't miss it). Loved the liquor tastings though 2-3 shots enough for me, as there was lots of walking around that day. Ripley, eateries always jam packed in the summer. Our VRBO cabin was a bliss, 3 levels, 5 bedrooms, jacuzzi, great views, yet the dog got spooked by bear smells.....!
Best part of the smokies was the river rafting (3rd time) and ziplining as we tend to be adventurists. Surely things will pick up as they always do but the media (the sensasotionalist lefty liberal media) always makes a mess of it all. When was the LAST TIME they ever flashed a feel-good positive news story??? Not in the last 20 years? Its always some catastrophe or the other thats going to bury us, as if they care a hoot. And just watch, come polling/debate season, how quickly they will pivot from this covid nonsense to election coverage. They'll simply "drop" all these garbage stories and the stupid masses won't even notice covid's gone.
Not sure if that argument is valid. Big insti investors are generally not affected by bankruptcies, and its only small retail that suffers as the equity becomes worthless. This is because they often will be shorting the same security, may own various tiers of debt both secured/unsecured, and also at their scale, its hardly even a blip on their vast mega-holdings.
Have you ever seen a single one of them fight it out in Ch. 11 court on behalf of their own or retail investors? Never. Hedge funds may get involved, and push for better equity outcomes, but thats rare too and they don't have to open their books to anyone. Surely JC Penney had maybe thousands of institutions that owned stock. They will happily offset their JCP losses (if they haven't sold it) against any number of other holdings.
Oasis Petroleum will likely be next bankruptcy in the shale oil patch, in my opinion. Same formula as before -- public losses to the tune of $4.3 billion dumped on common equity resulting in total collapse of EPS to -$13.70 a share. And a debt load of $2.8 billion that although is late maturity, they won't be able to refinance any time soon. This seems to have Ch. 11 written all over it. Tread (or should I say Trade) with caution.
OK, thanks that was helpful to know. Went and checked back some old messages, seems like DNR has been around the block a few times and doesn't surprise me that its in such bad shape now.
Why do you think it won't go back up? Is it because of the impending reverse split, or is a Ch. 11 filing coming soon? On the surface, it seems like a good company, well managed and a specialty player to boot using CO2 based reservoir optimization (i.e. extended well recovery and higher efficiency of extraction).
But the industry itself is a disaster with behemoths like Weatherford, Mcdermott and Chesapeake having filed bankruptcy. granted the former 2 are oilfield services so more comparable to Halliburton or Schlumberger and not oil producers per se, but still ... the whole sector is awash in debt and its time to cull the herd.
Be careful. Don't go by 13/F or 13/G filed by private equity firms, their so-called public disclosures are always after the fact and you'll never know when they sold and exited a position. Oil will be under heavy pressure for quite some time and not receiving any bailouts from US govt. either. Good luck.
Honestly, that does not mean much these days. They not only play both sides (long/short, stocks/bonds) but often both sides of the same stock at the same time. Plus, there's any number of bankrupt companies that had huge institutional ownership, yet filed Ch. 11
Take the case of Diamond Offshore Drilling. Loews had around 45-50% ownership yet they took a loss and writeoff on their books when DO filed recently. Currently trades under DOFSQ. Instis along with all others were wiped out obviously.
Thanks. Those filings are from Riverstone Energy (REL) a PE firm that invests in oil, gas, energy, etc. Doesn't look like any company directors bought? And some of REL's investment funds are offshore vehicles (Cayman SPVs) ... anyhow, be very cautious of PE investors, they generally get into deep distress assets and debt as it is available at greater than normal discounts and generally is junk status in the bond markets. GLTY.
You sound enthusiastic about Centennial! Why so positive? Isn't this company in trouble (excessive debt) like the other oil and gas companies out there? Or are they bucking the trend some way and St. hasn't gotten wind of it yet? Extraction (XOG) filed ch. 11 last week and just Monday, it was Chesapeake which has been widely expected for quite some time.
Unlikely in my view. Multiple states are closing down again, EU has issued restrictions on travel to US, Brazil, India etc. and there is a resurgence of the virus all across the south. Does not bode well for the summer which will see record drop in travel both road and air travel. Most people will cancel vacations if they haven't done so already. FL, CA are even closing their beaches for July 4th, when was the last time that happened?
All that points to even further drop coming for oil consumption / demand so its unlikely that analysts will issue positive buy recommendations for oil&gas plays.
Yes, they should make a movie about Mcclendon and CHK! What a sordid saga of wildcatters gone crazy. He and Tom Ward pioneered fracking but at a high economic, social and environmental cost. The company itself was overleveraged to the hilt. They overpaid for everything, including the land leases, contracts, employees, vendors and that fancy campus which is now useless.
Bondholders will take a big beating, and of course equity is toast. Anyhow, it is all uncle Sam's money and he don't know how to count beyond 5, failed elementary math!!
Yes, that is their agenda - population control. Makes you wonder why they don't preach their junk in China and India, the real culprits behind the hypergrowth and responsible for maximum carbon emissions in the world. They want to build a consumer class in those places but want to reduce the West's population.
Agree with prior sentiments. They want to push their endless junk onto dimwitted conspicuous consumers and vaccines are just another "thing" to sell to the minions. Does anyone really need a new iPhone every 2 years, yet people who barely have $100 in their bank, tons of credit card debt and working for min wage will happily line up outside of Apple or Microsoft stores at midnight cause they have to have the latest "gadget", XBOX, tablet etc. These consumers are what the oligarchs are after -- keeping people in huge amounts of debts and therefore some form of permanent slavery. So it makes sense for them to favor certain industries whatever new-fangled thing they want to sell, e.g. electric cars by killing off the fossil fuel industry.
Never mind that NO ONE has given ANY thought to recycling the millions of dangerous lithium batteries these cars (and other gadgets) use. Can you imagine it will lead to 100X the worst levels and types of pollution the oil&gas sector ever caused? Who has any type of recycling program in place for the ever increasing junk our modern society creates and consumes as if there's no tomorrow? And to think that just 75-80 years ago many countries faced starvation and there were food shortages worldwide. Now everyone wants to create brand new middle class populations that can be tethered to the debt machine forever. Never will they be able to get off the treadmill unless they drop dead.
How do you get time to post if you're actively trading a lot of oil stocks? Doesn't look like the board is being pumped, last 20 or so posts are yours. Anyway, IMHO Oasis could face a bumpy ride in the near future due to excessive debt coming due soon.
Sure, thats the case for all oil&gas plays but these guys also booked massive losses the most recent quarter, attributable to COVID loss of production I suppose. 4.3 billion is a lot, negative 13.7 EPS sticks out like a sore eye. Oasis could be risky if they breach any covenants or move forward their restructuring timeline.
So you don't think that the upcoming bond maturities in 8 months are a problem? QEP bonds maturing in Mar-2021 and also Jul-2022 and some analysts think they'll likely run out of liquidity even with the hedges on some of their production and cuts in CAPEX.
Seems as though any O&G company with near-term bonds due are facing a lot of trouble. Oasis just had its credit facility cut by 50% and so did Borr Drilling even though both serve different parts of the same sector. It remains to be seen how 2H 2020 turns out what with the ongoing COVID spikes and governors run amuck. NY-NJ-CT wants to quarantine travelers from the South while European Commission wants to entirely ban all Americans from traveling there! Weird times we live in.
It seems that way based upon Bloomberg article and how the stock has been trading lower and lower past few days. The company won't say anything obviously but they're living on borrowed time. OAS bonds due 2021 are trading at less than 25c to the dollar, and that says it all. Good luck.
Yeah that was an outright scam pulled by them. The whole Solyndra affair with Chu, his buddies and their cronies in govt. who rubber-stamped it costing taxpayers over 500 million ... but where's the accountability for that?? Where's the accounting for billions in pork barrel projects that Obama pushed thru not to mention a sham ACA bill that appeased no one but the insurance lobby?
What a disaster those 8 years were. They not only shut down Keystone pipeline but barred drilling in GOM for 1 full year after the Macondo incident. All the rigs packed up and left for S. America and the middle East.
Yes, DNR has too many shares sloshing around. They can buy/sell by the tens of millions and the price won't move a bit up or down. Not clear where its headed.
Yes, it seems many hospital staff, nurses, doctors etc. not directly involved in COVID patient care were laid off and/or reduced hours. In hospital systems all over the country. There were credible reports from Washington state and other places -- they pretty much clamped down on all other elective procedures or surgeries, even outpatient. Plus most people don't even want to go near a clinic or hospital anymore, just due to the fear of catching something. A fear many have even without COVID. Nearly impossible to tell what is true anymore.
Then there's th Soros-Gates crowd touting mandatory vaccines and microchips for the ENTIRE WORLD!! So they and their cronies can pretty much enslave everyone, work/bleed them to death and extract whatever $$$ they can out of their captives....the sheer audacity of it is mind-numbing. But anyway, we're deviating too much from OAS discussion .....
Denbury (DNR) has not been above 7 dollars in the past 5 years and there must be a reason. They have also executed a split and reverse split in the last 15 years. There seems to be just too much oil and gas around these days and not enough consumption, esp. now because of this COVID.
Seems to me that there's either a reverse split and/or a Ch. 11 in the works with this company, despite what appear to be great numbers and a reasonably good balance sheet in these times.
Wondering how the bonds are doing for Oasis Petroleum. anyone here owns the 2022 or 2023? TIA
Interestingly the people that promoted eugenics 100 years ago were the so-called "experts" of their time -- scientists, physicians, leading researchers all over Europe. In fact the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute was world famous for its research on human biology and immunology at that time. Until their theories were hijacked by unowho, used for genocide all over Europe and debunked as worthless garbage when they finally came to their senses.
Also, agree about the illuminati agenda ... have heard about the Georgia guidestones, but not sure anyone from that crowd takes that seriously. They just want to own/rule the planet via a 2-class system ... owners and slaves that slog for them endlessly. Good luck with your OAS.
Both the previous posters need to be careful with XOG as a Ch. 11 seems to be imminent ... for 2 reasons. XOG failed to make the May 15th interest payment due on its 2026 bonds, and second, they just paid out a hefty $6.7 million to 16 top execs, per Bloomberg news yesterday.
Business
Extraction Gives Executives Bonuses Ahead of Possible Default
By Kevin Crowley
June 11, 2020, 4:57 PM CDT
Colorado-based driller to pay $6.7 million to 16 top employees
Extraction failed to make interest payment on bond last month
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:M-1YwN6yIPEJ:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-11/extraction-gives-executives-bonuses-ahead-of-possible-default+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
Both the previous posters need to be careful with XOG as a Ch. 11 seems to be imminent ... for 2 reasons. XOG failed to make the May 15th interest payment due on its 2026 bonds, and second, they just paid out a hefty $6.7 million to 16 top execs, per Bloomberg news yesterday.
Business
Extraction Gives Executives Bonuses Ahead of Possible Default
By Kevin Crowley
June 11, 2020, 4:57 PM CDT
Colorado-based driller to pay $6.7 million to 16 top employees
Extraction failed to make interest payment on bond last month
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:M-1YwN6yIPEJ:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-11/extraction-gives-executives-bonuses-ahead-of-possible-default+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
There will be some consolidation in shale, gas, GTL and even offshore for sure. But DNR is contemplating a reverse split and that is never good in the long run. If they can somehow come up >$1 and stay there to avoid the NYSE delisting, then they got a great chance at surviving 2020 and beyond. They're profitable, CF +ve and have unique tech - CO2 based extraction.
That business is not sexy admittedly, its basically reservoir yield management, EOL (end of life) extraction and thus all their properties are phase 3 which means most (>50-60%) of the oil has already been recovered. But still, they're well-run and could provide a niche specialty for someone wanting to acquire them. Can't say who would though in the current environment. My hunch is it will survive even if they do the R/S.
Yes, absolutely. there's way too many shale producers most of which started as mom and pop (wildcatters) and then just grew out of all meaningful proportion. Cheap credit obviously helped "fuel" the rise of monsters like Chesapeake, now collapsing under its own weight.
The prices these dodos paid for some acreage parcels were insane, mostly in the Bakken, Utica and Permian basins. Some farmers became millionaires overnight. And then the big boys got in late of course, pumping prices even more ... setting up the perfect oversaturated industry that will now see many players get weeded out. Why does sleepy old Colorado need dozens of frackers anyway, aren't a handful enough?? Guess not.
All very good posts on Oasis and oil&gas in general. Industry in turmoil again because Goldman wants to short WTI some more, making that clear couple days ago. They want WTI under 35 for now. They're doing God's work after all, who can stop them. Nor should you try. Its quite obvious this is shaping up to be the "lost decade" of the millenials.
Agree that Gates, Soros, Bezos and their kabal are after vaccinating and chipping all of humankind. basically, their agenda is population control as alleged by some conspiracy theorists. They won't succeed though, their ilk rarely survives the so-called movements they try to create. Besides no one person can forge the planet's future. BUT that's a whole other topic, nothing to do with OAS or O&G.
Your optimism is great but before DNR gets there few other really important things are in order, like bankruptcy for example. Debt is really high and due in the next 12-18 months with insufficient cash flow (from operations) to support it. They've announced that they already hired restructuring advisors and have also put forth to the BOD a proposal for reverse splitting their 500 million O/S.
Check it out.
HighPoint has announced a reverse split back in April, possibly 1:50 or even 1:100. Be aware of that in your trading. They had proposed it to their BOD and shareholders and probably got approved though there isn't any press about it.
Regardless of what happens with lender discussions, JCPNQ shareholders will get zip as in ZERO out of the proceedings. Not only are the creditors fully in charge of this bankruptcy, but the presiding judge is notorious for shafting shareholders time and again, case after case, year after year.
Check out his "record" and see for yourself. SCREWED common equity holders of many companies, routinely siding with management crooks and lenders. Most of the newbies here will learn a harsh lesson why Jones is so favored by the leveraged debt/bankruptcy crowd.
Breitburn Energy BBEPQ
Weatherford International WFTIQ
Bristow Group Inc BRSTQ
McDermott Inc. MDRIQ
Dean Foods DFODQ
You need not have bought/traded these garbage stocks to see what happened. Most of the blame does lie with crooked management and their cronies, the judge is merely an accessory after the fact. No exec has ever been punished for greed and bankrupting one good company after another. Thats how they roll.
You seem to know very little about the drilling sector or oil&gas industry in general based upon your posts. RIG has the highest day rates around, largest backlog (over $9 billion) stretching into 2021 possibly 2022, and has been cutting down its debt via open market purchases since the last 2 quarters.
What happens to others need not happen to RIG. Its position in the industry is unmatched. Used to be that the CEOs of Shell and XOM said that oil&gas wasn't going anywhere until at least 2050 circa when Saudi fields tapped out. Now it appears this industry will live thru 2100 at least, and quite easily, given the humongous fields that have been discovered in the last 10 years alone. Who drills for those plays both offshore and onshore if all these drillers fold? Not to mention that the sunk costs ("CAPEX investments!") over the last 50 years have not yet been amortized let alone recovered profitably.
They may come out of bankruptcy as a much different company with all the real estate bundled together for the creditors to feast on. You as stockholders won't benefit from any of it. Operational cash flow from 600 open stores won't be enough after emergence, even though debt will have been reduced. And if the REIT is sold off to Amazon or some other company, that's even less incentive for the same dumb management team to keep running the company. You get the picture?
Trading in penny stocks, pinkies, OTC/BB is not based on any sense of fundamental reality, or tech analysis, or even simple logical rhyme and reason. Most of the "players" don't know the difference between trading and investing. Hence the frequent jumps and crashes in these stocks because they're almost entirely "player" driven not market-based. There is not a morsel of truth in any of their rumors or speculative guesses of the value of JCPNQ, which as can be seen from the PPS is close to zero. Alas!
Did you notice the typo and errors on Page 9-10!! Heading says FY2018 Occupancy Costs but columns on the right are 2019 4-Wall EBITDA and 2019 4-Wall Operating Profit! If you compare the amounts in the columns, on pages 9 and 10, sure enough they're different. BUT, the totals at the bottom are the same for FY2018 and FY2019.... yikes. Either they're in a hurry to wrap this crap up and head off to Luxembourg or they outsourced their accounting dept. to Bengalaru India.
Of course the dillweeds at the SEC would never notice. 2nd column total SF (millions) for FY2018 is correct -- 93. But that same SF for FY2019 adds up to 94, not 93 as it says on their 8K. Its unlikely the total SF changed but they didn't update the column values to reflect their store-level changes.