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Patience and perseverance.
Did you notice the warnings about driving EVs in the cold? Evidently their range is very negatively affected by the colder temperatures. The batteries also take much longer to charge in the cold weather. Both these issues are a definite nuisance. But the warnings were about finding yourself stranded in a blizzard with no power to run your vehicle heater. A situation to be avoided at all costs.
Not only that, but some renewable projects are being abandoned because, although they look good on paper, ‘in the real world it is not that easy at all’. Investors are sensing that this is just a debacle waiting to happen. And they are pulling out. Look no further than Germany and Switzerland, where the coal-fired plant furnaces are all fired back up to generate the power to survive the winter. Wind and solar? An after thought.
So be patient, the trend is in our favor. Renewables will become a supplement to natural gas. Not the other way around. Countries and states that try to force renewables will go bankrupt. Supplies are tight. Exploration will become a priority.
https://archive.ph/pcjK3#selection-301.278-301.398
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/12/23/big_wins_for_parrots_and_whales_as_wind_projects_in_tasmania_and_massachusetts_are_scuttled_871881.html
Mrs. Smith
I had brunch with John over the Holidays, lol.
Do not forget, 10-K this week.
Mrs. Smith
Yes, good point. My thoughts exactly.
If the ‘whales’ are standing pat, then why should we panic? Whatever is going on with these buys and sells at the open are not indicative of any weakness in GSPE beyond the fact that another partner/investor is needed to drill the wells. So ‘old news’ and nothing new here.
In my opinion, the reality is that we are more likely to get good news than not, and the stability of the 1,300 million shares not trading says to me this stock should probably still be up around 2-cents. And all these gyrations may be perceived by the whales as mostly peripheral to the actual value.
Is it possible that market makers are making deals to ‘stock up’ on their inventory at a discount? The shares to be used for resales as the stock price rebounds, or to hold for huge gains if a successful well is drilled. Are these guys the sharks?
I know even less about the workings of those guys than I do about trading, but it occurs to me that for these sells to be happening, buyers are needed. So, the question of ‘who is it that is willing to buy this stock right now’ is still on my mind. And these guys do fit one of the profiles.
But rather than complain, I am content for now to be a minnow swimming in the presence of whales.
Blessed be the whales.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Mrs. Smith
Thank you for the observations regarding data and knowledge. I must do that to keep up with your example.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and all the little fish in this school as well.
Mrs. Smith
Someone please lend me a straw!
So I can suck it up. Yes, there are those trying to pick the bones, but prematurely. With determination, the company perseveres. As do I.
At this price level, I will not stress over any sells, or celebrate any buys, of only a few shares, or even 1,000,000. Now 10,000,000 will certainly get my attention. But we have not seen anything like that recently.
And we will not. Not until good news from Gulfslope. It will take partnership news or a drilling deal to bust out buying like that.
Perspective. A recent low trade was barely 1% of the low total volume on that day, with a value of $15. Not really all that unsettling. I think that was the main essence of spec’s message at the time. And I agree.
To me, the question is not so much who is selling or what is their motivation? The questions should be who is it that is willing to buy? And why now? If it is believed the stock is valued correctly, why would anyone buy now? And if the stock is undervalued, who will sell now? Obviously, there is a disconnect here.
But folks have the right to sell and take a loss on purpose. Although I struggle to see the rationale for trading a small limited benefit in income tax reduction for a missed opportunity at a much larger return. I am not sure I buy it.
But what if this is nothing more than a coordinated attempt to influence the price lower for someone’s own advantage and purposes. And that is all it was. Nothing but a transitory moment in the dynamics of a stock’s expected day-to-day fluctuations. Accordingly, there is no ‘yikes’ moment to direct our attention towards. That is the bottom line.
The answer to the question of who is willing to buy right now might be a simple one. Consider that the way to huge returns in this stock involve amassing large numbers of shares. And pushing the share price as low as possible enables buying large volumes for small investment. The only problem is there are not large numbers of shares for sale. But what if shareholders can be convinced to sell?
Not a new strategy. The next step will be to reverse course and support the stock to rise. At some point, the shares will be sold for a healthy gain, but probably not a huge return.
I have no interest in playing penny ante, and it is one’s own trade decision and one’s own pocket to do as one sees fit. Choosing the investing path that is seen as most appealing that can justify the risk for the reward offered?
But, I will need a better stimulus to act. I was once told that there is never money lost, nor made, until after the trade. There is no money to be made on trades these days, and I find no justification to incur any loss either. So, standing pat is still my stance for now, shares in my pocket. Just awaiting the news that changes the stock’s fundamentals moving forward. And then on to the ‘Big Show’.
My DNA seems to lack the requirements to be a trader. I prefer patience and perseverance with a wildcatter’s instinct. But no penny ante here. My stock will be sold, but for dollars.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Mrs. Smith
That is one way to cinch that belt up tighter, ‘T’. How do those Big Boy Britches fit now?
As for concerns, how big of a concern will it be if enough shareholders get a shake-up from these shares selling lower and they decide to bail too? And then the hits will just keep on rolling. I hope whoever is behind this selling runs out of shares before that occurs. A good bet this will happen.
To help put these new lows into perspective, it occurred to me that for all of 2022, less than 10% of the shares were traded. And those that were sold could have been mostly the same shares being bought and sold and recycled over and over by a small group of active ‘shareholders’ buying from each other, and then selling back to each other again. It looks to me like at least 90% of all shares, probably even more, were never traded in 2022.
So if owners of +90% of the shares are not concerned about these low prices, it is because they are not interested in these hokey gyrations. They are focused on the end game, not the half-time show. Stability reigns. This is my vision anyway.
As long as this perception prevails, like you indicated, the journey continues in spite of prices. Those scrambling around, trying to make a fraction of a penny on a trade, risk missing the opportunity that turns pennies in to dollars, and must take care to not get caught with their heads in the sand. Or elsewhere.
There is no way for us to know a person’s motivation for selling. Despite the share price, I say that the odds of drilling the well are at least better than the odds of the company dying.
There is a good chance that sellers will look back with regret. More on this in a future post.
If one sold a couple of million shares recently, it will be very challenging and more expensive to try and buy them back later. Flexibility is fast fading, and there is nothing that can be done to help you. You did it to yourself.
But if you were a buyer, there is nothing wrong with taking advantage of an opportunity, even if it is participating in the setting of the new price. Just be sure to not complain about low prices. At a minimum, those shares are out of circulation now (if held on to), and not available for future recycle events. Welcome to the 90%!
My advice is to keep that belt cinched up tight.
Mrs. Smith
Does anyone else notice how the administration (DOI/DOE) chooses to interchange ‘renewable’ and ‘green’ when it suits their fancy? Or how the EIA can arbitrarily omit references to WTI from their reports. I suppose they hope we will not miss it and forget it exists in the world of energy. It appears they want to only focus on international prices and production. For what purpose I wonder?
The DOI recently referred to strip mining of minerals as being ‘green’. SINCE WHEN? Just like all other mining practices, there will be no replenishment of these minerals and the environmental impact will live indefinitely in the form of erosion, pollution of groundwater, and damage to the landscape. So it is amusing when they cherry-pick and choose to utilize the word ‘green’ for effect. Is it only camouflage? Or deceit?
For the record, all heavy mining equipment will be powered by diesel for the foreseeable future. And of course the environmental impact of strip mining must be overlooked to pursue this agenda to ‘save the planet’. The hypocrisy is undeniable. The biggest talent of these politicians is keeping a straight face when they speak.
Not such a subtle difference between renewable and green after all. Too bad the administration cannot find time to focus on inflation and energy independence. It makes me wonder what the real agenda could be. What are the options? The Great Upset?
When it comes to domestic wind farms and mining of minerals over the last two years, is it a big surprise how generous the DOI has been to grant the special interest’s wish list?
If we look deep enough I predict we will find a particular set of political donors lined up to benefit from the ‘windfall profits’ bestowed on ‘green projects’ by our government. Is there a 10% in play somewhere?
Creating renewable energy technology, materials, infrastructure, and capital will not come over night. It will take a couple of decades and cost us dearly. This is a known fact.
Yet Joe’s plan is to cut US oil and gas production now, lowering our standard of living by increasing the costs to live. But, it is going to all be okay, we can get it from other places. Like Venezuela. At what cost to the USA in revenue, wealth created, jobs, national security?
Oil and gas is already a proven means of efficient energy, and will be utilized for decades to come. We are already feeling the effects of under investment in the oil and gas sector because, without new investments, there will be higher prices and shortages. That appears to be the plan. But the end game is no longer hidden to those that take a critical look. Check for yourself.
Remember, if these green initiatives were viable in the marketplace, they would not need subsidies or need to have the government artificially raise the price of oil to make renewables competitive.
This reliance on wind and solar without gas or coal will result in us being forced to freeze in the dark. And without electricity to charge that EV, we lack the ability to flee or find food. But if we can kiss enough government ‘fanny’ perhaps they will allow us to survive for a while longer. The Great Reset in action. Be warned.
Mrs. Smith
I read this article on how offshore wind farms might change oceanographic and marine ecosystem conditions.
Not having training or expertise in marine biology, I cannot vouch for the veracity of the article. But it did cause me to wonder if these green projects in the USA are required to do an environmental impact study ‘to the same degree’ oil and gas projects are? Were these effects considered?
It seems to me that any permit to build offshore wind farms in U.S. waters would be in jeopardy until such time as these concerns are addressed.
Double standard?
https://www.workboat.com/wind/wind-turbines-will-affect-base-of-ocean-food-chain-study-predicts
Mrs. Smith
More confirmation that oil and gas will not be denied.
I also believe that politicians can not overcome physics or economics.
Keep your energy investments in oil/gas. That is where all the money will end up.
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/12/02/siemens_power_ceo_confirms_the_iron_law_of_power_density_867905.html
Mrs. Smith
The one thing that I have in abundance is opinions. But first, any comment here is not meant to denigrate any other opinion.
To me, the difference is a matter of scale. True, you and others have holdings large enough to drive the stock price lower, even to ‘zero’.
But for how long? Hours? A day? Days?
Once those holdings are exhausted, if there were not enough others frightened in to following with a similar reaction, then the price will rebound. Upwards. And then, it was all for naught. That is the real ‘zero’ in the equation.
It is simply a matter of scale. And our level of scale simply does not matter. At least, not that much.
As was mentioned by spec, there are 1.3B shares in play. I think that is a good number. So to me, that means we (all of us here), are shrimps and minnows swimming in a sea of whales and sharks.
Until those guys break ranks, nothing the rest of us can do will cause very much of a permanent ripple in that sea.
So I say that the time to “fold ‘em” is when the whale gives up his stake. So as you surmised, like it or not, we are all in it to the end from here. But at least the trend is turning.
The whales just really do not care about the stock price at this point. They are not trying to make enough profit to pay for an appetizer with their meal. Not even enough to pay for the whole meal.
No, they want to be able to buy the restaurant and the building it is located in. So they are looking far down the road, not looking at their watch.
It may be wearing us out, but the best strategy could be to sit back and watch it play out. As long as the whale does not see the road ahead as a dead end, the journey continues.
After all, there is no real volume to sell to at these price levels anyway.
I suppose that prices must make a fairly large upward move if there is to be any meaningful increase in trading volumes.
I can only imagine how crazy things might get when any news breaks. Just the thought leaves me giddy.
Once the stock makes it’s move, I hope I can keep up with it, and not be tempted to quickly sell out. Another reason I am destined to never be a trader.
For those feeling the frustration in this situation, just rejoice that you did not already sell your shares, while hoping to buy the shares back at a lower cost basis. Good luck with that plan.
Also remember, this is but another opinion amongst many others. And do not shoot any of the messengers.
Be comfortable with the investment decisions being made. This advice alone is worth the full price being paid.
Finally, the Covid Crisis appears to be waning. And even better, obstructionist government is about to be stalled.
The demand for oil and gas will not be diminished. Therefore, the money will follow that demand. And the game is not ended. Still in early innings.
Mrs. Smith
‘White House Mulls Additional Oil And Fuel Releases This Winter’
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/White-House-Mulls-Additional-Oil-And-Fuel-Releases-This-Winter.html
‘White House asks Congress for $500 million to modernize oil reserve’
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/white-house-asks-congress-500-mln-modernize-oil-reserve-2022-11-16/
Mrs. Smith
The letter sent to the DOE from the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources and the House Committee on Energy and Commerce is asking some very important questions.
If you are concerned about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), this is very much worth the time needed to read.
Note: The SPR has decreased by 214 million barrels from a year ago.
https://www.energy.senate.gov/services/files/72620615-48FE-43F7-85C5-9B3A11594848
Mrs. Smith
‘OPEC+ switch to virtual meeting on Sunday, December 4th signals policy roll-over ahead of Russian oil price cap’
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-virtual-meeting-signals-little-likelihood-policy-change-ahead-russian-oil-2022-11-30/
The good news out of the recent Climate Summit (COP27) is that there is NO verbiage in the agreement calling for the phasing out of fossil fuels.
Is this a case of being more sensible and finally accepting that most of the world’s energy now comes from and will continue to come from fossil fuels? I suspect this is not the case.
In many ways, the ‘climate disaster’ ideology is partially being driven by the desire for the transfer of wealth. Yes. It is the transfer of wealth from the USA into the pockets of other foreign political bureaucrats. In this country, that used to be called ‘kickbacks’. Will we ever know what is actually being bought with our freshly printed tax money?
How can these foreign governments sermonize to the world about helping less energy fortunate underdeveloped nations, when they do not even advocate for them to have access to the most convenient and affordable form of energy out there, fossil fuels.
We are talking about billions of dollars of ‘hand outs’ to these foreign government officials. Who honestly believes they can be trusted to build electrical grids and charging stations in these poorer cities and villages?
What is more likely is that whatever monies finally make it past the pockets of these foreign politicians will be used to mostly improve their own personal neighborhoods. There will be little to nothing left for the poor.
Well, maybe a few token charging stations for appearance purposes along the way, but the communities themselves will not have direct access to electricity. Most of these people cannot even afford cooking utensils, much less a $50,000 EV. That is worse than donating a refrigerator with no food in it.
I’m all for creating drought resistant seeds, providing clean water, basic shelter, and cheap energy to the poorer countries, but most of these good works are already being provided by donations through vetted organizations, not through suspicious political mandates. Yes. A proposed 100 billion USD per year. Once again, I say that what this is really about is taking hard-earned money out of our pockets and lining theirs.
And I am still curious about who is getting the 10%? Any guesses?
Just to recap, the USA will pay to run power lines and install charging stations in underdeveloped nations. Perhaps I just do not get it, but it would seem to me to be a better plan to get a little more developed before we worry about charging an EV in any deep African nation.
But, I am adventurous. Let us all have an African EV Safari. I will meet you there and we will cross the continent together (while Tau 2 is being drilled). You are driving.
What could go wrong? I hope we will not need to walk back. Pack accordingly.
Government money? Do you not just love it?
I just voted hoping for the 118th Congress to slowdown this agenda over the next two years, and to initiate and implement ‘energy independence’ strategies for the USA.
Some light articles of interest…
https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2022/11/28/how-joe-biden-caused-the-diesel-supply-crisis-he-is-complaining-about-n513984
https://dailycaller.com/2022/11/28/democrats-congress-lame-duck-roundup/
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/11/28/u-s-auction-almost-1-million-acres-alaskan-coast-oil-drilling/
https://hotair.com/david-strom/2022/11/28/they-really-really-want-you-to-eat-bugs-n513838
https://redstate.com/robert_a_hahn/2022/11/28/a-tesla-smartphone-is-not-an-idle-threat-n665632
Mrs. Smith
For future discussion, please note that more than 67% of the earth’s surface is covered by oceans.
In my opinion, many of the oil deposits on land have already been discovered.
That makes our energy future offshore.
As an example, Exxon has expanded it’s offshore Guyana discovery to 11 billion BOE.
So it is highly likely the GOM and other offshore sites will remain significant participants in future global oil supplies.
Please ask those windmills and solar collectors to kindly move aside.
Sorry, Joe.
Mrs. Smith
‘Biden Administration to grant Chevron license to pump oil in Venezuela, where dirty oil is name of the game’
Venezuela has thick, dirty, gooey, sludgy oil. One of the few places left to refine this low-quality dirty oil is on the US Gulfcoast, which is the exact reason China has not bought it all up. At least Joe is okay with the U.S. chasing after oil no one else wants.
https://mustreadalaska.com/leak-biden-administration-to-grant-chevron-license-to-pump-oil-in-venezuela-where-dirty-oil-is-name-of-the-game/
Hola, el Mucho Lurko.
Mrs. Smith
In less than 5 weeks, Gulfslope’s annual 10-K is to be filed with the SEC somewhere around December 29th.
This 10-K is ‘audited’ and should contain specific items that could provide information that may supply clues, or at least hints, about what is next on the company agenda and the when of it all.
This report will likely require a thorough reading, especially with a filing date just prior to the New Year’s Eve holiday. A good time to have something slip by. Therefore, ‘skimming’ will not be adequate.
Fortunately, I have blocked out time over the New Year to take a look to ‘see what we can see’.
Bear in mind that this will most likely require some level of interpretation and speculation, but I will do my best to detect any useful nugget(s) of information. I intend to keep you all informed of whatever I find. Even if it is nothing.
The crystal ball is polished, cleaned-up, powered-up, and ready to go.
Be in touch in 2023.
Mrs. Smith
Add another offshore terminal to the list.
’Biden administration quietly approves huge Texas oil export project’
https://abc13.com/biden-plans-largest-oil-export-terminal-texas-gulf-coast-us-capacity-sea-port/12490194/
Excerpts:
“The construction and operation of the Port is in the national interest because the Project will benefit employment, economic growth, and U.S. energy infrastructure resilience and security,” the administration wrote. “The Port will provide a reliable source of crude oil to U.S. allies in the event of market disruption and have a minimal impact on the availability and cost of crude oil in the U.S. domestic market.”
“It will process more oil than the largest U.S. export terminal currently operating, Moda Ingleside Crude Export Terminal, owned by Enbridge in Texas, which moves up to 1.6 million barrels per day at the Port of Corpus Christi, the nation's top port for oil exports.”
Mrs. Smith
BOEM proposes to hold GOM Lease Sale 259 at 9:00 am on Wednesday, March 29, 2023.
“The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) proposes to open and publicly announce bids received for blocks offered in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Region-wide Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Lease Sale 259 (GOM Lease Sale 259) on Wednesday, March 29, 2023.”
https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/documents/oil-gas-energy/leasing/Proposed-NOS-259.pdf
The Vegas odds are 8-5, but I did not catch which way the bet is for.
Mrs.Smith
John Stossel: ‘Inconveint Facts’ on oil vs batteries Part 1 and 2.
So it is not going to happen. At least not on the scale or the timeline that has been proposed.
Part 2 video, released November 15th:
Gulf Coast Energy Outlook 2023 - LSU|Center for Energy Studies
Slideshow:
https://www.lsu.edu/ces/publications/2022/gceo-2023-kickoff-slides-full-reduced.pdf
Highlights:
* Long-run energy demand growth will lead to increased U.S. energy exports; however, a global recession would reduce demand for energy products.
* An ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict will force global energy supply adjustments. Crude oil prices will gradually attenuate over the next several years, while Gulf Coast natural gas prices will likely remain elevated (relative to post-2008 historic trends) due to LNG export pressures.
* Supply chain constraints—caused by the economic recovery from COVID-19, sanctions resulting from the war in Ukraine, and continued Trump-era trade policies with China—will continue for the next year.
* Decarbonization policies will challenge existing Gulf Coast energy manufacturing but also create opportunities for the region to take the lead in developing low- and net-zero emissions products. Over the forecast horizon, the GCEO sees decarbonization creating considerable regional capital investment opportunities.
* Drilling activity will continue to increase but is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels. Oil production is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels over the forecast horizon, a sign of continued efficiency improvements.
* Both oil and natural gas prices are anticipated to fall over the coming year. While long-run oil prices are anticipated to converge back to pre-Russo-Ukrainian war levels, natural gas prices will likely settle at average levels higher than those seen over the past decade.
* Both oil and natural gas production in the region are anticipated to experience a decade of growth despite the fact that oil and natural gas prices are both in backwardation, (i.e. expected to decline over the forecast horizon).
* Significant investment in crude oil pipelines is likely not needed at this time due to the investment in pipeline infrastructure over the past decade.
* While solar capacity will likely experience significant growth over the next five or so years, it is anticipated to be a small share of total electricity generated for the foreseeable future.
* As much as $175.4 billion in new energy manufacturing investment activity will occur through 2030, representing a $15 billion, or 7.9 percent, reduction in total regional capital investment relative to last year’s GCEO over a comparable period of time.
* Production in the refining industry has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels and is anticipated to continue into the future, although downward revisions may be needed if a serious global economic contraction arises in the upcoming year.
* By the second quarter of 2023, Louisiana is expected to gain about 3,500 jobs. Texas is forecasted to gain about 12,200 upstream jobs between August 2022 and the second quarter of 2023; however, these model results are not anticipating employment in either state to reach pre-COVID levels over the forecast horizon.
Mrs. Smith
‘Global oil inventory developments’, OPEC Featured Article, November 14, 2022
OPEC MOMR PDF:https://momr.opec.org/pdf-download/res/pdf_delivery_momr.php?secToken2=accept
OPEC MOMR Video:https://players.brightcove.net/34306109001/default_default/index.html?videoId=6315559296112
FEATURED ARTICLE
Global oil inventories consist of three major components. The first component is the total OECD oil stocks, commercial and Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs), with OECD national government reporting systems providing data on their inventories. The second major component is non-OECD inventories, which have grown in importance in recent years as rising non-OECD oil demand which has surpassed OECD oil demand levels requires more stockpiling in these countries. Unfortunately, inventories in the non-OECD are hard to track due to incomplete data or the lack thereof. In the absence of regularly reported data, estimates are arrived at using information released by companies and ministries, as well as figures published in the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) database, which features official country data. The final component is oil at sea, which has increased in recent years, providing an important operational link between exporting and consumer countries.
Global oil inventories have increased since the beginning of this year by 158 mb and stood at 8,096mb at the of September 2022. OECD commercial stocks, non-OECD stocks and oil at sea witnessed stock builds, while SPRs in the OECD registered significant stock draws.
Over this period, total OECD commercial stocks have increased by 98 mb. At the same time, non-OECD stocks and oil at sea rose by 111 mb and 184 mb, respectively. By contrast, SPRs were expected to register a significant draw of 236 mb over the first three quarters of this year, with the bulk coming from the US, amounting to a planned 176 mb followed by OECD Europe drawing some 31 mb and OECD Asia Pacific 29 mb. These volumes are estimated to consist of 208 mb of crude and 28 mb of products, notably gasoline and middle distillates.?
In 1Q22, global oil inventory levels continued the declining trend observed since late 2020, as total oil demand outpaced global oil supply by 0.3 mb/d (Graph 2). However, this trend was reversed in 2Q22 and 3Q22, as global oil supply outpaced total oil demand by 0.2 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d, respectively. This underlines the apparent move from a balance deficit to a surplus in terms of oil supply.
During the first three quarters of this year, the observed global oil stock build reflected that the global oil market saw a supply surplus of around 0.3 mb/d vis-à-vis total world oil demand. This supply surplus was confirmed by low crude refinery runs, which are an indicator of oil demand performance. The drop in oil demand occurred on the back of weakening economic activity, spurred by rising inflation, monetary tightening by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, tightening labour markets and additional supply chain constraints.
The significant uncertainty regarding the global economy, accompanied by fears of a global recession contributes to the downside risk for lowering global oil demand growth. In addition, China’s strict adherence to the “zero COVID-19 policy” adds to this uncertainty, making the country’s recovery path even more unpredictable. To address this significant uncertainty and heightened market volatility, the proactive and preemptive decisions taken by the OPEC and non-OPEC producing countries in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) will continue to contribute to global oil market stability.
Mrs. Smith
Once again I agree with your posts. I find them accurate and to the point.
By the way, I noticed that the U.S. gasoline, distillate, and propane stocks were down this week.
However, there was a build in commercial crude inventory of 3.9 million barrels. Probably due to the release of 3.6 million more barrels from the SPR.
For 1Q23 the Brent and WTI futures contracts are in the mid $90s and upper $80s, respectively.
So, very similar to the current contracts.
The comparison of global consumption vs global production was 100.98 mb/d and 100.67 mb/d, respectively.
So expect continued tightness in global supplies.
In conclusion, all this agrees with the EIA’s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook where it states that despite increasing concerns around weakening global economic conditions, the global oil consumption will outpace global oil production in 2023. This will contribute to increasing global oil prices in 2H23.
We need to drill Tau2.
All those in favor, say “aye”.
Mrs. Smith
The supporters of the oil and gas industry may wonder if Ds realize that they are actually playing into our hands with their misplaced faith in renewables. It is only a matter of time.
Once the dust clears from the collapse of their ‘fossil fuel free’ dream, consumers will know the results of their folly. And what it has cost them. And how much more it will cost them in the future to get it all straightened out. And there will be no joy in it for Ds.
The only unknown is how long will it be before the epiphany is upon us.
A really impressive and thought provoking article.
Link: https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/re-elected-governor-newsoms-energy-literacy-will-be-challenged-over-the-next-4-years
Mrs. Smith
Due to a miscommunication I was wrong about the LSU Gulf Coast Energy Outlook for 2023 being released on Friday.
Actually this report is not going to be available until the 16th.
Since I will be committed to other activities this week, I may not be able to get it posted in a timely manner.
Therefore, I am providing links for any interested parties.
Webinar:
https://www.lsu.edu/ces/conferences/gceo2023/index.php
Outlook:
https://www.lsu.edu/ces/research/whitepapers.php
Mrs. Smith
The author of this article explains in more detail what I tried to point out in my post.
I thought he did a very good job of explaining why a larger majority would not have made any difference.
And he makes the point that just having the majority in the House is definitely going to make a meaningful difference.
Also, later today, after it is released, I plan to post the ‘2023 Gulf Coast Energy Outlook’ from LSU, which contains forecasts on production, pricing, and other associated activities in the OCS region of the GOM.
https://townhall.com/columnists/larryoconnor/2022/11/10/big-majority-or-slim-majority-the-size-of-the-gavel-is-the-same-n2615810
Mrs. Smith
It is unclear to me just what is meant by “meaningful difference”.
Yes, certainly it is too early to know, but a majority in the Senate does not appear to be hopeless. And if Rs get the majority in the Senate, that will mean the VP gets to stay in her office full-time.
For now, predictions are that Rs will likely win enough House seats to shut down most of this Administration’s next two years. To me, that is very meaningful.
If this is the outcome, Rs will get chairmanships over important committees.
Rs will control the money.
Rs will control the budget.
Rs will greatly influence the legislative agenda (or lack thereof).
Rs will decide future energy policy, which should impact the oil and gas industry in a positive way.
We will just need to keep on moving ahead, never losing sight of the goal, while working with what we have. Perhaps taking smaller strides than we hoped. But still making incremental changes as we move towards the Big Finale in two more years.
An analogy is that it is similar to when we are following behind a school bus and driving through a school zone. We will surely still arrive at our destination. But at 20 MPH, and after several stops and waits. Perseverance and Persistence always Prevails.
A lighthearted question. If “red Ripple” is for Winos, does that mean white Ripple is for RINOs?
Mrs. Smith
We will always have the opportunity for the share price to move upwards, but meaningful appreciation will most likely require news of a partner or drilling contract in my opinion.
Things I see on the horizon that increase the potential for this happening are a noteworthy change in the regulatory outlook and greater support for exploration and drilling. As you surmised, this is most likely the outcome if the Rs take control in this election.
Recall that 2015-2019 was the most recent time the Rs controlled both chambers of Congress. And that resulted in an expansion of drilling activity in the GOM. If the Rs gain control after this election, it is conceivable that they can repeat that performance at a critical time.
By the way, the BOEM is forecasting oil production for the OCS region of the GOM in 2022-2024 to reflect strong growth similar to what occurred in 2013-2019. This is the type of news that investors may find to be worthy of risk.
Maybe those wishing to buy back into the stock at a lower cost basis will want to start accumulating soon. That is another reason the share price might move higher. But as previously stated, notable moves in the share price will probably only occur after the announcing of some type of partnership or drilling contract. Again, in my opinion.
My crystal ball is fuzzy due to running low on energy.
Signing off.
Mrs. Smith
Unless I am mistaken from my understanding of remarks from John Kerry (the climate advisor), the Administration has a plan to address some infrastructure needs for the Green New Deal (or the inappropriately named Inflation Reduction Act).
Unfortunately, portions of this spending is intended for upgrades in other countries. I am totally against taxpayers footing the bill for this.
Think of the inflation all that printing of money and borrowing will bring. How high will the interest rates go up? We need to rename this The Inflation Increasing Act.
But wait! It gets worse. There is no ceiling for how much money we will spend on these world-wide green projects. This is an open-ended boondoggle. Can you believe this load of ‘malarkey’?
I am curious about whose pockets are being lined? A classic case of ‘follow the money’. Kerry says there is no limit on how much money can be spent, so I choose the amount of $0.00 as the goal.
This must stop. Government spending must be reduced, not increased. How can we afford to pay for this without going bankrupt ourselves?
See link: https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/john-kerry-is-looking-for-money-to-help-save-the-climate
Queasy again.
Mrs. Smith
Curious about the GOM oil and gas forecast?
Buffoon-den is trying to sell you a full load of his ‘malarkey’. Even the DOI and the BOEM do not believe in the lunatic rhetoric that says we will be ending fossil fuels. At least we will not do it willingly, which is the reason change is coming. I do “hope” for “change”.
These charts plainly spell it out and reinforce what many on this board have been saying all along…. Oil and gas is going to be around for the long haul.
Notice that the continuing OCS GOM oil production is expected to experience multiple record years of growth through 2031.
And look for those GOM natural gas numbers to significantly increase once a new administration begins making the calls. We need it.
That may take some of the ‘wind’ out of their turbines, and ‘rain’ on the solar collectors. After all, we should make an effort to have electricity be a better value for consumers. Even for EV drivers.
Also, note that the GOM forecast clearly indicates that ‘undiscovered resources’ are a critical part of our future. And the Tau lease is considered to be an ‘unrisked recoverable resource’ that fits comfortably into that category.
https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/documents/regions/gulf-mexico-ocs-region/US%20OCS%20GOMR%20Oil%20and%20Gas%20Production%20Forecast%202022-2031.pdf
And this is from the ‘we support 100% renewables’ crowd. Think what the next forecast might look like once the ‘we want energy independence’ party begins running the show.
So a commitment to much more exploration and drilling is to be expected. Bodes well for Gulfslope Energy and Tau 2.
Cheap Renewables? Blah-blah-blah-blah. No, Buffoon-den.
Two days, folks.
Meet you on the other side.
Woooo-Woooooo!
Mrs. Smith
To your point. No coincidences. Appears there is at least one plan in place.
https://pjmedia.com/columns/david-solway-2/2022/11/04/the-great-reset-a-perfect-storm-n1642854
Mrs. Smith
Another Green Dream prepares to bite the dust.
None of these ‘renewable energy’ boondoggles can compete in the marketplace against natural gas without overwhelming taxpayer support (known as government subsidies).
Why should taxpayers ensure that the investors do not lose money when they invest in these inefficient, over-priced schemes designed to fill their pockets while killing fossil fuels?
What about our hard-earned money? How do the consumers feel about having those electricity rates go up by 50%, or even more (see Germany or California).
Since these schemes all seem to share this in common, I surmise that the point is for liberal fat-cats to get over-sized returns on their investments once these projects are completed.
Just another wealth redistribution scheme. These guys should be running used-car lots with in-house financing. But wait! That will not work. No gas cars, remember.
And Greta is back. Woe is me. She has not matured at all. Full commie now. At least she does not have her own private jet (yet).
Yes. Plug that book. Cannot wait to get my copy. Maybe it will explain why I should pay attention to a teenaged activist without a proven track record of achievement to vouch for those wonky opinions.
Spare me and drill Tau 2.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/31/massachusetts-wind-power-project-no-longer-viable-developer.html
https://unherd.com/thepost/greta-thunberg-throws-her-lot-in-with-the-anti-capitalist-left/
Mrs. Smith
In case you missed it, the sort of notorious el Mucho Lurko, was saying GSPE was ‘Krap’ (unquote).
Everyone, of course, is entitled to an opinion.
And for the record, the reasons that I ‘waste posts’ (unquote) about Gulfslope is that I believe in the management team, their vision, the seismic data, and that they will drill the well.
Also, I find the exchange of ideas with other posters to be intellectually stimulating (mostly).
Since I do not trade my shares, I am content to wait for the company to work through all the turmoil before drilling the well.
I am not alone either. The Company’s Management Proposals were recently approved by a majority of the shareholders.
Once again, patience and perseverance prevails.
Mrs. Smith
With all due respect back to you, all I am trying to do is give my opinion and read responses from other interested posters.
I do not recall at anytime ever advising anyone to do anything with it one way or the other.
My posts are free, and worth all they cost. Like anyone else, you are free to use them however you wish.
I wonder how one can pump this stock? The share price is low and the volume of sales is too. There is no news at this time, and the value of an entire day’s trading is about $500. I have said it before, I am NOT a trader, so I need YOU to explain it to me.
I do kind of wish I had a major ownership stake in the company. But alas, I am but a minor shareholder.
Mrs. Smith
To expand on what spec said, he is absolutely,100% correct.
There is the ‘Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act’ that can be utilized to stop spending on much (all?) of the new Inflation Reduction Act and it’s green subsidies. Probably applies to other spending plans too. All the Rs need to do is have the courage to enact it.
If we wish to revive drilling and kill inflation, the three main House Committees that I would like to see the Rs get Chairmanship for is the Energy and Commerce Committee, the Financial Services Committee, and the Budget Committee.
The ‘Energy and Commerce Committee’ has jurisdiction over the National Energy Policy, Fossil Energy, Renewable Energy, Nuclear Energy, Synthetic and Alternative Fuels, the DOE, the FERC, the EPA, and the EIA.
The ‘Financial Services Committee’ has jurisdiction over Securities and Exchanges (and ESG policy). Banks and banking, including deposit insurance and Federal monetary policy. Money and credit, currency, gold and silver, and valuation of the dollar.
The primary responsibility of the ‘Budget Committee’ is the drafting and preparation of the Budget Resolution. This resolution sets the levels of revenue and spending that is expected to occur in a given fiscal year.
It is imperative that we have control of these committees if we wish to change these regulations.
Mrs. Smith
The API’s “10 in 2022” policies would spur nearly $200 billion in direct investment and generate over 225 thousand jobs by 2035.
See link for final energy report, Released November 1, 2022:
https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/misc/20221031-Rystad-Energy-APIs-10-in-2022-Policy-Plan
Mrs. Smith