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Thanks Sonny. Maybe it was that big market order that threw up a red flag.
Yes, I see it moving on the streamer now, too. Specialist's lunch hour? Internal Opxs thing?
Here's hoping TKO can execute on these contracts.
GLTA
Optionsxpress is saying trading halted on TKO. Anyone else get the same message?
Long time holder, first time poster.
YES. Accept the offer.
My bad. Bimonthly can mean both every two months or twice a month. I didn't know that until someone pointed it out and I looked it up. Sooo we're back to ambiguity. Just have to wait and see. The PR did seem to imply twice a month. Here's hoping!
"Bi-monthly" means every other month but I am hoping they just used the wrong word. Semi-monthly means twice a month.
lowtade , ACMG - I see now a month of accumulation (green CMF) on no news, all between .03 and .035. Then up M-T this week and PR today about USSE buying controlling interest with stock, not cash. Huge up day today. So watch what happens tomorrow or expect a crash?
Lowtrade, Very interesting. Came to your board way too late in the game here, but still trying to learn something.
EQBM - where are we today in this cycle, the 50% retrace from the 1st share restructuring PR? Or is it too early to tell how well the PR's will be timed. You say this is typically a 3 month cycle. Beginning from where? The accumulation for no reason phase? And are there typically 2 runs in the 3 months?
TIA
sxsw
Good advice, thank you.
sxsw
Yes, you're right. But, even worse...what necessitated the averaging down was averaging UP on a run, rather than selling into it and not looking back. How dumb is that? Extremely costly beginner's error.
Do we learn from out misakes? Well. I don't average up anymore, but have more work to do on learning to hit the sell button when I see green on a poistion.
SLJB being most recent one.
I like your Rule, though. Care to share a few others?
Asus, Got it. Thanks.
Asus, thanks a lot. I'll watch and learn.
Assus, sorry you misunderstood my post. I haven't learned where the bottom is yet on stocks, as I have averaged down and down and down again.
I don't know what indicators you're looking for but would like to, if you would share.
I wasn't being sarcastic.
Thanks
Asus, bottom indicators.
What, in your view, would indicate that a bottom is in? I'm trying to educate myself and have been reading this board for a couple of months. By the way, thanks, everyone!
I caught that move before the move on NWOG Friday, too. Am hoping it's a Coydog classic and bought in. Well, to be more accurate, I bought more. God help me if it's not. I don't need to add to my losses on that one.
TIA
sxsw
km123, we must be at the same stock-picking level LOL
Good luck!
km123, ditto for me. I think we'll get there, though!
No, darn it. Just watching for now, but like what I see!
Thanks
Good info, thanks.
Thanks, I'll continue to monitor your scans and see if I can learn something from them.
Thanks for posting
sxsw
Okay, now I'm going to bug you.
Would you wait for further signals?
RSI break 30, MACD and CMF to go positive? Or wouls you jump in, watch your stops and take your chances?
thanks,
sxsw
Utmost,
Very impressive. Great tools, as far as I can see. And I can use all the help I can get getting even.
So would this be a bet on a break further up, out of top bollinger or break back down?
TIA,
sxsw
TGTL, And how does this affect the share price for us, in your opinion? Does it remain at these levels and anyone with cost basis over .15 loses? Can we drive the price higher by not selling?
Brent and Cause, You're welcome. Just a small contribution compared to all that both of you and some others do here. I appreciate it.
I think NNDOL/NWOG will eventually come to be recognized as a great long term play as well. I'm looking forward to the upcoming news as reported by cm3i yesterday.
Best of luck,
sxsw
Barron's - Rosneft good long term buy.
Article published in this week's issue, which came out on Saturday. I copied and pasted since you need a subscription to get article online.
It would be interesting to use this same analysis the author uses on Rosneft on what we know of NDOL today. I haven't had time yet but will try to later on today or tomorrow. Maybe others who are good a estimating PPS can do the same and we can compare results.
Russian Oil Giant May Be Long-Term Buy
By ARINDAM NAG and STEVE MCGRATH
ROSNEFT SHARES DON'T SEEM CHEAP, so it wasn't surprising that they didn't enjoy the traditional hefty bounce last week often associated with a new listing. But patient investors could see a payoff further down the line.
The Russian oil company's London-traded stock, whose initial public offering was priced at $7.55 a share late Thursday, moved up a bit Friday, but then settled back to $7.56.
There aren't many independent forward-looking estimates yet, but the available financial reports indicate that Rosneft shares (ticker: ROSN.RS) are expensive, compared with those of fellow Russian energy outfit Lukoil (LKOH.RS) and even Sinopec (SNP) and India's ONGC (ONGC.IN), two prominent emerging-market oil giants.
At $7.56 a share, Rosneft's stock-market value stands at $80 billion. Add total debt of $12.2 billion and subtract cash and equivalents of $2.78 billion, and you get an enterprise value -- stock-market value, plus net cash -- of $89.2 billion. The company's 2005 cash flow, as measured by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization stood at $7.03 billion. So its EV/Ebitda multiple is 12.7. This is nearly double that of China's Sinopec at 6.33 and higher than ONGC's 5.12.
In addition, Rosneft is trading at nearly 15 times its 2005 cash flow of 51 cents a share. ExxonMobil (XOM) the world's No. 1 oil company, trades at 8.4 times its cash flow of $4 a share; Shell trades at 6.8 times.
However, looking forward, it seems that Rosneft -- if it can keep risks associated with various legal problems to a minimum -- could end up being a positive long-term play for many investors.
After all, the Kremlin has always wanted Rosneft's IPO to reflect Moscow's long-term economic policy as it moves toward further liberalization. And while, based on the its operational results, Rosneft's stock-market valuation looks steep, the price still values its oil reserves relatively cheaply.
If you subtract Rosneft's distribution, transportation and other assets, taking $7 billion from its enterprise value, you get a valuation of $82.2 billion for its proven reserves of 14.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent. This is $5.50 per barrel of oil equivalent. The big investors, including BP (BP), who have bought 21% of Rosneft's shares, think that's cheap.
Broker Collins Stewart has tracked recent acquisitions in the sector and has seen reserves changing hands at $20 per BOE. In its recent calculation of oil peers, the brokerage found the market valuing the reserves of BP and Italy's ENI (E) at around $10 per BOE.
If BP and other strategic investors can strike a friendly relationship with Rosneft's management and are allowed to share technology and other resources with it, the upside is immense. Rosneft will be able to monetize its reserves that much faster, even if crude falls somewhat from the nearly $80 a barrel it was fetching Friday.
If that comes to pass, paying a hefty price now for Rosneft would be justified.
Stevenvegas, Thanks. I sure hope so!
Rich1225, Wow! Congratulations! Do you mind my asking how long that took you and which online broker you use?
TIA
sxsw
(Fellow EDEX holder as well)
Dustin, Thanks so much. I'll start the transfer paperwork tonight. I appreciate your response.
Have a great Sunday. Good luck next week to you and all XKEM holders.
sxsw
excuse me for butting in, but from real life experience I know that the $3000 loss limit is in excess of your gains. So, for example, if you're carrying old losses from the dot-bomb days of, say, $80,000 and make $75,000 on chdt this year, as I hope you do, you can write off the entire $75,00 gain, claim a $3,000 loss on your tax return and carry the $2,000 loss balance from your $80,000 forward to next year.
glty,
sxsw
Thanks, Dustin 1101. I didnt' see (or did I miss it) any recommended online brokers for penny stocks. I have accounts at Optionsxpress and Vanguard currently and the commissions are killing me for pennies. Do you have a favorite or a link to discussion of recommedations? Just based on a Google search I'm leaning toward Ameritrade, but am not sure about their execution.
Thanks for the link.
sxsw
Thanks Mediascan. Appreciate your continuing to post. This is very enlightening. I can't flip (commissions are too high at optionspress for pennies) but it will help me evaluate my position nonetheless.
Have a great weekend everyone. Keep the faith.
sxsw
July 14
Update on Rosneft IPO Interest - from Bloomberg today. Looks good!
Rosneft to Sell Shares at High End in IPO, People Say (Update1)
July 12 (Bloomberg) -- OAO Rosneft, Russia's state oil company, plans to raise as much as $11.6 billion, the highest amount it sought, said four people involved with the sale. It would be the largest initial public offering in seven years.
The shares are now being marketed to investors at between $7.15 and $7.85 each, said the people, who declined to be identified until the offering is completed. Initially shares were offered at $5.85 to $7.85 each, valuing the Moscow-based company at between $60 billion and $80 billion. Nikolai Manvelov, a Rosneft spokesman in Moscow, declined to comment today.
Investors, including rival oil companies, are being drawn to the sale amid record crude prices and as President Vladimir Putin uses Rosneft and OAO Gazprom to tighten his grip over Russia's energy industry, the world's largest. The IPO, Russia's biggest, comes as Putin built Rosneft into the country's third-biggest oil producer using assets seized from OAO Yukos Oil Co.
The IPO ``will be a success,'' Alexander Branis, who manages $2.5 billion in Russian funds for Prosperity Capital Management in Moscow, said earlier today in an interview. Though expensive, ``there are many strategic investors who are interested in taking a position,'' and money managers will be buying it because of its size, he said.
BP Plc has decided to buy a stake in Rosneft, the Financial Times reported yesterday, citing unidentified people familiar with the deal. BP had been hesitant about taking a stake due to concerns over pricing, the FT said. BP spokesman Roddy Kennedy declined to comment on the report when contacted by Bloomberg.
Biggest IPOs
The IPO may surpass Bank of China Ltd. as the biggest this decade. The Russian government will receive as much as $8.5 billion and Rosneft will raise as much as $3.1 billion.
If it reaches $11.6 billion, Rosneft's IPO would exceed Bank of China as the fourth-biggest ever, after NTT DoCoMo Inc.'s $18.4 billion offering in 1998, Enel SpA's $17 billion IPO in 1999 and Deutsche Telekom AG's $13 billion IPO in 1996. Bank of China on June 7 increased the size of its May sale by 15 percent to $11.2 billion.
At $7.15 a share, Rosneft may be worth about $73.7 billion, about the current market value of Rosneft's chief domestic rival OAO Lukoil. Based on earnings estimates for the two companies, Rosneft will be almost twice as expensive as Lukoil at that price.
A $73.7 billion value would give Rosneft an enterprise value of about $84.5 billion, implying the company would trade at 11 times 2006 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, according to research by Aton Capital Ltd., a Moscow-based investment bank. Lukoil's enterprise value, debt plus equity, is about 7 times 2006 Ebitda, based on Aton' s research.
The shares are due to begin trading July 14, one day before Putin hosts U.S. President George W. Bush and the other leaders of the Group of Eight nations in his hometown of St. Petersburg.
ABN Amro Rothschild, Dresdner Kleinwort, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and OAO Sberbank are managing the IPO.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Elisa Martinuzzi in Milan at emartinuzzi@bloomberg.net;
Garfield Reynolds in Moscow at greynolds1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 12, 2006 07:16 EDT
Thanks, Media. You take the emotion out of the situation and state "just the facts, mam" as we know them today. I missed the run last week - on vacation with no internet access, but if my past trading performance is any indication I would have held anyway, I hate to admit.
You give lessons? lol
sxsw
Hello all, silly question maybe, but does Nicosan require a prescription?
TIA,sxsw
Westcott, Thank you for sharing your very thoughtful and reasoned email to Mr. Parkin and his response. I am impressed once again by his unwavering confidence in the company's potential to do big things.
GLTA
Agreed. I remember the Google IPO was pooh-poohed by lots of fund managers too - said the internet boom was over. Scared me off, darn it! And reading negative comments about the Rosneft IPO had me a little concerned about taking it the shine off NDOL.
What Cause says makes perfect sense, though. If the big money guys talk it Rosneft up before the IPO they'll just have more. But if it has a good opening day, watch out. They'll all be jumping onboard and up it goes and NDOL goes along for the ride!
GLTA
Everyone Read Post 12060 by sometimes_right. Great article about jv's between major miners and Russians. Thanks, sometimes!
cmzio, nice find. Looks like we're in good company here.
20vision20, I would appreciate those equations and your favorite websites. I need to make learning TA a priority.
TIA
Thanks Kraigger. I definitely need to learn some more about TA. Any suggestions where I start - books or websites? I've been on stockcharts.com but haven't taken the time to do the Chart School. DO you know if it's good?
Your post and Wishmd's from yesterday have really boosted my confidence in holding here. I've never thought this was a scam but it is nervewracking watching that red number on my screen get bigger every day. Looking forward to your charts and analysis this weekend.
To you and all here Good luck and have a nice weekend