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What is the opposite of Scooping? Just curious ... if you are such a believer in the shares and SP then I presume you buy but never sell.
Are you spending your daily or weekly allowance ($20) to buy more shares.
Who do you think you are fooling with your foolishness?
Just curious ... Mr Scooper-Pooper
What a bunch of nonsense. You have NO idea of who will partner if anyone. I could speculate that there will be no deal and no cash and the company folds but that would have equal merit to your speculative crap.
If they do direct sales then look for dilution to fund the sales team while hopeful sales start to cover costs ... typically 2 to 3 years to breakeven.
If they use in direct sales then look for less dilution and deferred income since there will be no royalty until the distributor is making a profit and it will probably be on a sliding scale and perhaps capped.
Basically the company should have raised $300M a few years ago when the markets were stronger. Bringing an expensive product line to market when capital severely tight for medtechs is a minor disaster for current investors. The last investor in will make coin due to the dilution and clearly the management team is in it for the jobs not the equity so what does that tell you about their position on raising capital with dilution. I have been there and seen that story a few times now.
Basically the risk here is way too high to be scooping but the cheerleaders seem to feel that thy know better. I love the BS jargon on this cracker jack forum so SCOOP this HUGE runny pile of >>>>
BTW scooping is code for please buy my shares today. LOL.
The spend to get to cashflow positive is not all that speculative. You can look at some of the competition and get a sense that the spend will be at least $50M per year for the next 3 years. Then cash bleed will slow down assuming the product launch is successful and if there is not $100M in the bank at any given time then the offering will dilute.
What most of the investors have not comprehended is that management have been more focused on keeping their jobs than delivering shareholder value. The misalignment is common in the medtech worlds. Repricing the options signals management feel they have finally bottomed out so that is a positive sign but no one really knows if the market will be kind to the SP moving forward. That will take a heck of a lot of scooping from those so called weak hands or perhaps smart money depending on your perspective.
I see value here at some point but too early to jump in right now with fresh cash but you guys keep scooping and see how that works out for you if this thing goes south. More likely that is a pile of BS from the daytraders on this forum.
I will wait for a partnership deal that gives Titan a solid footing. It will come ... mark me.
DF means nothing. FDA approval means nothing. What I mean to say is that they are not unimportant but in themselves they are not that meaningful unless the cash drawer is full. That means they need about $150M in cash to be taken more seriously. I do not see how the SP can go up if they need to keep diluting. Clearly there is a disconnect between management goals to keep jobs vs defend shareholder value.
A partnership with Intuitive would be meaningful even if they had to assign the rights over in exchange for 50% of the free cash flow nd management might get to keep their jobs if they structure it correctly. Agreement would need a timeline term to discourage slow movement from the partner to protect investors.
Otherwise an an angle investor will need to appear and in this market that is NOT likely. Wainwright will finance this but investors will not like their terms.
Acquisition might occur but that J&J sweetheart deal made absolutely no sense. The valuation was completely over the top. Someone will be fired over that massive mistake. This is a wildcard that may work out for investors but give it a 10% probability prior to roll out.
J&J will have economy of scale on its side and the financial unpinning to manage risks or design challenges. Titan will be on shaky ground unless it has access to $200M in cash OR MORE should the unexpected occur.
Hospitals that have teamed up to increase their buying power may decide that Titan is too small and unproven to work with them. Independent hospitals and clinics are more likely to go for the lower cost option but the cost for these sales streams will be higher, and growth will be slower. Will we see national distribution agreements or a partner line up with Titan to manage these aspects? This strategy has not been revealed. Will Titan give up 50% for that deep pocketed support or go it alone? Who knows.
I do like the Titan offering but I have not yet bought in yet until I see the light at the end of the tunnel. The product offering is critical and that seems well in hand but that is the first of several challenges Titan will be facing as it takes on giants.
I believe most warrants would be out of the money if there was a takeover today. No one knows why J&J overpaid for their acquisition into this field but we do know they were very well connected and had loads of cash to progress their development.
Investors will do what is best for their bottom line. Warrants will be worth little upon a takeover since then the time value would be missing and you would be FAR better off to buy the common shares. Your assumption of a huge premium implies someone is desperate for Titan technology whereas the market has not indicated that to the be case at all. That is not to say that someone should not be interested but the reality is Titan is not seen as a threat at the moment to any player in that field.
I have stated before that Titan needs $50M per year until FDA approval and then $50M minimum to roll out the product line commercially since there will be no profits for the first year as orders will be small while potential buyers test it on a small scale.
Scoop ... scoop ... rah ... rah ... rah. I do not believe for a second that these posters are constantly buying and never selling their shares. That is ridiculous and particularly when all they can say is silly phrases like scoop and provide wishful bliss.
Still watching but not buying at the moment. I believe cash will be harde to come by and the spend will be relentless due to broader bear market conditions for medtechs that are outside of Titan control unfortunately.
Which is the below would cause an investor to exercise the warrants:
1) Warrant is in the money and expiry date is near (nope)
2) Warrant is in the money and investor feels the SP will be dropping in the near term ... cash out (yes ... that was the case before the drop ... is this the option you are hoping for?)
3) Warrant is in the money and investor is sentimentally supportive or has significant long holdings to try and protect against dilution (angel investors are mostly gone so unlikely)
4) Warrant is in the money and investor is stupid (not likely)
5) Another theory (???)
Tell me if there is evidence to suggest No 3 happened before the capital raise since otherwise No 2 was the more rationale explanation and that was a precursor for longs to sell in the near term.
Awesome article link which folks on this board need to read. More than a few gems for those who invest with knowledge.
Huge. I thought this board was complete garbage and then someone posts a gem. Huge.
As mentioned before 510k is no longer the marker since most acquirers are willing to pay more after commercial launch. Auris is the exception.
TRXC will either get taken out or fizzle ... nice graphics functionality... not sure about the surgery tool. Having loads of cash will allow them to launch.
What is the plan here with TMDI ... to raise $25M at current SP fir next 2 years?
Apologies for a post with substance. Huge.
I seriously doubt anyone claiming to have hundreds of thousands in this stock. Most here seem to be day traders with pumper and nash IDs.
Disappointed in the amount being raised. If the US recession hits then raising capital will only get more challenging. I will not be buying right now unless the SP gets stupid ... back under $2/sh ... which I doubt will be the case. The pricing will confirm strength and anything over $4/sh and $5/wt will be positive IMHO and perhaps a dip to $3.25/sh range will give folks a chance to load up ... not me though.
Warrants suggest weakness though. Ideally they will expire in 6 to 9 months when more capital is needed. Hopefully the warrants will trade since most of the other warrants are useless. I would not mind picking up some of these to optimize the risk reward of holding the shares.
I would have dipped in if the raise was closer to $50M with warrants around the same pricing and expiry of 6 to 9 months. That would have given me assurance that one or two more dilutions would not be required prior to FDA approval.
We will be having this same conversation in about 6 to 9 months gentlemen and without FDA approval in hand the SP will probably take another hit at that time.
My two cents ... go bulls go.
BigT,
Regarding the incentive for investors to cash in long duration warrants that are in the money, clearly these investors must believe the SP will go lower or want to drive down the SP or they want to move away from the stock for greener pastures. The ONLY upside for longs is that the runway is extended. Hence, the prospect of a capital raise at current levels is not probable.
For those who do not understand what is happening with TRXC, keep a close eye on it since IF you believe their technology is solid then this would be the time to load up. Otherwise you need to wait until more orders are placed and then buy at hopefully not much of a premium.
The SAME things will occur here and before then you will see at least $100M raised and $50M borrowed to fund through to the point where sales will START to take off assuming the hospitals adopt the platform. We are at least 2 years from that point and perhaps 3 years depending on the roll out plan. If sales are slower than planned then expect one big final dilution unless the company has lots of cash in the bank.
Design freeze now will accelerate FDA submission by a quarter but it probably means more minor submissions post approval. I support this move by management assuming the FDA will approve the current design since it moves the timeline forward although it may mean more costs to get these minor changes approved.
I wonder why you pumpers do not discuss such risks and for those who blindly follow you then be careful. I will say that the surgeon support gives me much optimism for the platform but do not kid yourselves into thinking the markets will reward these fellows with a billion dollar market cap any time soon, and particularly not when the company will be forced to raise capital.
If there is competition for the raise then longs might be happy. Perhaps a partnership would be the best strategy for Titan but who would partner with them? Intuitive - NOPE. J&J - NOPE.
Auris got a full valuation because they did NOT need to raise ANY cash. Titan is not in this situation and has burned investors over the years, so payback can be expected.
The raise of $45M is needed to get thru 2019 and FDA submission. Cost for approvals will range about $50M/a for the first 2 years as additional gadgets and product modifications will be necessary. As noted before, it would have been very bad idea to take on debt right now since FDA approval is not necessarily the golden touch for SP since $100M will be needed to roll out the machine for commercial assessments by innovative hospitals and medical schools. Revenue will be reported but losses will continue in the first 2 years.
Auris (J&J) has a single port bot for lung biopsy AND Intuitive just rolled out one of those too. This is not a competitor for Titan since that is functionality is very different with ultra small diameter, very low umbilical arm strength requirements and a simple biopsy needle device.
Both Auris and Intuitive are likely working on next generation devices for single port surgery and that will be of more concern. I doubt J&J bought Auris for just a lung biopsy device. There will be competition in this space though not too many players ... in the end there will be 2 or 3 leading in this space.
Anyone know how long it takes to roll out a machine from placement of order and how much it costs to make them on spec? If there is cash in the bank they can make em and sell em, otherwise the buyer will need to pay 50% upfront then wait for 6 to 9 months for delivery.
Perhaps the marketing cycle can be improved with a few training facilities for interested parties. Ideally they will have all of the competition on hand for surgeons to try out on a head to head basis, and may the best proposition win. That would be cool.
To think that Intuitive and J&J will just lay over while Titan does its thing is not smart. The question is whether they need to buy Titan to get to market first, or are they already well advanced down this path. That is something no one on these boards will know since the big guys are in stealth mode whereas Titan and TRXC are open books. If they look to be a threat or if they need them then they will be scooped up, otherwise they will dominate them using their might. It will take deep pockets in the range of $100M or more to be a serious player, so $150M capital raise would show the markets they are SERIOUS and need to be dealt with RiGHT NOW.
These companies will buy a weak company financially on bad news, so FDA delay or whatever. Titan should raise $150M right now is a case that could be made ... but they will do what they do and roll out $50M or less and hope for the best. Keep in mind a US recession is looming though and this might be the best time!
Mark me! Dinna Fash! Aye.
Looking at TRXC news releases and developments you can see that it will be a very bumpy ride thru approvals and roll outs. TRXC was refused on their bot application but was approved later for their Senhance application.
Their SP dropped a lot AFTER FDA approval since ivnestors now started to focus on actual costs to roll out. Spending $50M/a to get mods approved, roll out SLOWLY their equipment to hospitals and universities. Revenue of $24M in the first year is equipment sales with low margins. Royalties will follow in the coming years, but they have an open prospectus for another $75M if they need cash. Hence my point is that it is WAY too early to be talking about LOANS vs share capital.
The surprise here was the valuation of AURIS since it makes ZERO sense. J&J could have spent far less. The strength of AURIS was their high cash position and hence they were on solid ground to go commercial and be a player. Titan is on shaky footing in terms of cash position and has no white knight to give them deep pockets.
I believe there is great potential here but investors are very uninformed about the prospects in terms of probabilities. Perhaps the technology here is vastly superior but there is a tale of two stories here with AURIS and TRXC ... which one TMDI will follow is hard to say but our SP is more closely following TRXC than AURIS.
I will buy eventually but not at current prices. Otherwise I will wait for FDA approval and buy in 12 months after the roll out. The SP will be much lower than when reality kicks in. The best hope for a big payout in the near term is a BUYOUT and if that happens then good on the many PUMPERS on this board who seem to not know much about the progression of these med techs.
Hopeful optimism is high on this board.
This is a fluff article that contradicts itself. Look at the low institutional holdings and note that more of them left than joined recently.
I do like this company and will buy unless it runs away from me. However, they will need to raise cash and using debt at this stage is premature and too risky despite the appeal.
If a capital raise of 50M is made then I will take the plunge. I prefer a placement at $2.50/sh with no warrants. Perhaps a quick sale for $300M is the best option for the longs here to recoup some losses.
Debtors will want bond covenants or debt terms which puts shareholders and management at too much risk if sales are delayed for any reason. There could be hiccups in the delivery or implementation stages and cash will be needed to avoid being consumed by vultures.
Sales will be slow in the first 2 years while markets gain acceptance and costs will be high due to the sales and support teams. Intuitive went sideways for 5 years before boom time so institutions can wait until they get a sense of market acceptance. A buyer like J&J can enter earlier once the device has been approved by FDA.
Looking 5 or 8 years down the road this will be an outstanding investment and a 10 or 20 bagger perhaps, even with the dilution proposed. However, it is too early for the bigger institutions.
Other small caps can have very high institutional holding despite a sub $5 share price, but these will be smaller niche institutional buyers who I fondly term vultures at the moment. If you see Wainwright or similar coming then walk away.
The recent run up is mostly retail speculation and to some extent you guys. I had my finger on the trigger at $1.05/sh but was waiting for the financing so my bad for missing the current rise. I do believe thought that my patience may be rewarded relative to buying right now.
The bridemaid (for now) ...
Cheers!
https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2019/02/19/u-s-fda-grants-clearance-for-ion-by-intuitive
Looks like J&J bought the WRONG company at Exactly the WRONG time. This news might deflate anyone looking to pay huge premiums to enter this space.
Intuitive has a huge advantage for whatever space it wants to enter. I suppose there will be competition but it will be tough for a newco to overcome this giant.
The hype here needs to take a break. This might be a winner but the risk / reward is pretty level right now in the short term.
Those warrants are like going to Las Vegas and betting it all on No 2 on the roulette wheel ... maybe lower odds than that even given the expiry on them.
Data below is per the June 2018. My question for investors is why exercise attractive warrants with Aug 2023 expiry if you believe the SP will increase significantly.
My hypothesis is that either the investor will take the cash and reinvest again at a lower financing price or the SP must be viewed as going lower. Otherwise the smart move would be to hold ... right??
Why do the owners of Titan own few shares in the company?? Why didn't insiders buy in Dec for under $2/sh if they knew what was coming??
If you look at Intuitive it took over 5 years after FDA approval before the SP started to move. Hospitals will move slower than investors expect, and hence it will take 3 or 4 years to start to build on sales if you are a small co. Perhaps the best time to buy will be 6 to 18 months after FDA approval once the SP is based on actual rather than hyped earnings.
J&J will have the name brand to move sales ahead faster so maybe 2 or 3 years for them to start building momentum. The investment time frame is probably 3 to 5 years for the payout for Auris Health. If Titan becomes of interest then it could trade much higher and otherwise it will be at the whim of Bay Street and Wall Street and those boys have no heart.
Symbol Issued Date Expiry Date # Issued # Current Strike C#
TMD.WT.F Nov 16, 2015 Nov 16, 2020 233,740 233,740 $48.00
TMD.WT.G Feb 12, 2016 Feb 12, 2021 389,027 386,694 $30.00
TMD.WT.G Feb 23, 2016 Feb 12, 2021 58,226 58,226 $30.00
TMD.WT.H Mar 31, 2016 Mar 31, 2021 501,831 501,831 $36.00
TMD.WT.H Apr 14, 2016 Mar 31, 2021 75,275 75,275 $36.00
TMD.WT.I Sep 20, 2016 Sep 20, 2021 569,444 569,444 $22.50
TMD.WT.I Oct 27, 2016 Sep 20, 2021 67,667 67,667 $22.50
UNLISTED Mar 16, 2017 Mar 16, 2019 357,787 135,824 $12.00
UNLISTED Mar 16, 2017 Mar 16, 2021 357,787 355,253 $15.00
UNLISTED Jun 29, 2017 Jun 29, 2022 1,612,955 75,810 $06.00
UNLISTED Jul 21, 2017 Jun 29, 2022 370,567 370,567 $06.00
UNLISTED Aug 24, 2017 Aug 24, 2022 563,067 563,067 $06.00
UNLISTED Dec 05, 2017 Dec 05, 2022 1,533,333 1,533,333 $18.00
UNLISTED Apr 10, 2018 Apr 10, 2023 1,126,665 1,126,665 $10.50
UNLISTED May 10, 2018 Apr 10, 2023 168,889 168,889 $10.50
UNLISTED Aug 10, 2018 Aug 10, 2023 7,679,574 7,679,574 $04.15