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I hope the shorts get burned hard on this one. But knowing ADXS it might never happen. Longs can always hope that one day it will turn the other way. GL to all holding.
Highly unlikely we will last 2 years unless Ken pulls a rabbit out of his hat, where the rabbit is a deal to bring in money through partnership. Time is something we don't have with ADXS.
I really feel the next 5 months will be do or die for this company.
Looking at the catalyst coming up, one down i'm assuming (PSA survival data, which hardly maid a dent on the SP), just 5-6 more to come this year. What kind of news do we need for this to even hit 1$ and prevent de-listing. And of course the threat of further toxic financing and potential dilution around the corner this one is so hard to be positive about.
Question is if Ken can do enough to either form a collaboration with one of the big pharma companies or sell the company. Looking at his history, he probably cant sadly.
I only wonder how he explains to the board the 99% drop in SP since he took over. Any other company would have sacked him by now. Tbh Lombardo was doing better than this shit. In any case its far too late for the board to do anything at this point.
To put it in short, we longs really need a miracle for ever getting a return on our investment. What you can think of if we don't is that somehow we helped people with cancer live a few more months and be happy with that.
What i'm trying to understand is if he is trying to boost our morale or just rubbing our faces in it. Can't tell at this point.
I hope that he is indicating that his hedge fund buddies are going to pump this sucker up soon once the warrants are exercised. They'll have that survival data for the PSA study, and clinical data for both HOT and NEO studies this year.
Big question here: should we average down or not because its dirt cheap at the moment and plenty of hands exchanging shares.
Man, I wish I could think that way. But you know what I do have an idea and its simple.
We have been destroyed by the management and this CEO. He's not a novice and definitely not flabbergasted.
Imagine where a CEO brings a company to 1% of its value in a years time, and still gets bonuses and a heft pay check, wait I don't need to cause this is advaxis.
We have had no good news for the past 4 years, and the last year was horrendous for us in terms of any news. Shutting down a phase 3 program, losing Amgen, the reverse split, dilutions, shaking hands with hedge funds like Sabby, and then the roll out of the warrants. How easy has it been for these hedge funds to short us. Can't tell me the CEO had nothing to do with any of this.
I am a long time share holder and it feels so bad seeing these day traders play with us at what 0.27 cents a share. I don't know what its going to take to bring this back up to even 1$ and avoid delisting at this point.
My apologies in advance for the negativity.
Just looking back to the letter to the shareholders from the CEO. Any ideas as to why he would put out a letter like this. This comes after carrying out a RS and then selling stocks at a ridiculously discounted 3$ a share when the stock was at 10$ the very next day. After that further diluting a few months later. It's crazy that he blames the whole thing on the market when the company itself sold itself short. I mean does he think that dilutions bring up the value of the company?
I mean its kind of silly that the stock has gone down 98% the last year and he blames it on the market. Saying it's a normal part of the cycle, so called ebbs and flow. It's as if he is speaking to a bunch of clowns.
Not sure what the intent of this letter is in all honesty but I would appreciate any input from you guys.
Hey Harold, just wondering what you think is best outcome here for LT shareholders. Whats like a realistic scenario here. I think Im averaging 11$, do you think it will ever go back to something close to 10$ or not?
Thanks.
"Estimated over $500M market potential in cervical cancer alone"
They estimate AXAL cervical alone has this much potential.
so, question is what is holding them back? Are the ph3 results sufficient to push this to ph4 and something that can be marketable or not?
If it is worth 500 million this share price should be at least 15-20$, but its not. Why do they state this and at the same time say they are trying to offload.
I do feel Lm platform in the hands of big pharma and almost unlimited cash would go far and is probably worth a lot more than what it is now. The issue is the cash though and Advaxis has very little. Companies maybe looking to get in on the action cheap here and this might be the reason for a lack of solid partnerships.
Exactly, they probably feel HOT and NEO can bring in a whole lot more money, just a few years ago Amgen were willing to invest 540 million in NEO and shelled out 70 something million with nothing to show.
What he is trying to say is that the deals that they have been offered are shit and nothing close to what the board and management are able to accept. Its quite obvious. The company is literally worth what 40 million or so right. Any big pharma can literally say we'll buy you for double of what you are worth and be done with it but I feel that they are waiting for the best outcome here. In part because of their greed and second they probably missed chances to sell way before when the company was worth more so i'm sure there is some regret there.
All I have to say about that is congrats to Dr.Petit in his new role at Carisma. I love how they described his achievements with us.. "Dr. Petit most recently served as Chief Scientific Officer of Advaxis, Inc., contributing to their successful NASDAQ IPO, raising significant capital, and evolving their platform technology to leverage both personal and shared neoantigens."
Just like OConner, Molly etc, they used advaxis as dummy company to get ahead in their careers so props to them. Needless to say on the backs of dying patients and awesome science generated at Penn which they had nothing to do with. But we all are here to make money. Bottom line.
Yup Raja, I figure it'll be most likely the second with our luck and the market skills of the management. Also, it does say "international" convention. So I think they were fishing for partners outside the united states, possibly Europe or Asia.
But I suppose unless anyone actually visited these conventions its just speculation.
"During the call, Advaxis’ senior management will review the company’s clinical development programs and recent financial results, and provide a general business update. The company intends to issue a news release summarizing financial results for the fiscal second quarter ended April 30, 2019 after market close on Monday, June 10, 2019."
This doesn't sound too encouraging. General business update.... meaning how they are still trying to get a partner for such and such.
Ugh.
Don't forget there is a board, with the Chairman sitting on top of it all. The man who hired all these people. Taking in a cool 2 Million a year might I add. He actually sold quite a bit of his positions when we were at 15$ a share. Everyone should have jumped ship exactly at that moment.
We might not be in the crapper just as yet, but yeah possibly on the brink. Only chance we have is if some big company bites for NEO and HOT studies.
New jobs posted this month, their recruiting side isn't affected looks like given they being strapped for cash.
1 departure leading to 4 jobs maybe.
Thats the hope, but at this point I am just looking for an exit strategy. Ah, its been hard with this one no doubt.
Yes it is for the AXAL HPV head and neck study, as I mentioned before they probably were waiting for the clinical hold to lift for AXAL to go ahead with the partnership terms. The platforms must be similar hence the wait.
The latest presentation says clearly on slide 30 (anticipated catalyst) that they will announce a partner for AXAL-HPV. I feel this might be coming up as soon next week since the sudden big drop below 3$. It could be that the marker makers know this and hence kicking out all the the people who have a stop loss below 3$.
Okay bit of rant here but had to vent somewhere.
I feel Petit left, rather let go because of a lack of confidence in the board of him after the failure to get an approval for AXAL in the EU and downright lack of knowledge he had about what was needed for approval or even consideration. They pushed quite hard 2017 and 2018 telling all the share holders and tutes that they had a high chance of acceptance all the way when in reality they didnt even stand a chance. Maybe they'll be better off without him, plus will save a boat load of cash by not having to keep him on the pay roll. Im sure Petit wanted good for the company but his lack of due diligence was unforgivable when the stakes were so high and almost a year wasted.
Their latest corporate presentation said partner for AXAL is due 1H of the year. I think that they were waiting for the FDA lift so that they could commence with the terms hence the push from 1Q to 1H announcement. In the meantime they raised the 10 million (wo warrants) to keep them going for sometime.
I know I might be over reaching here and of course I might be completely wrong but this might be a good time to take another chance at all time low levels right before news of a partner. What are your thoughts? I don't expect it to go very high, but this might get to 5 or 6 if we are lucky.
As mentioned in an earlier post, fintel isnt accurate, I think they had some issues when the thing RS. Whale wisdom shows numbers that make sense. CVI, adage, blackrock still hold positions.
Yes exactly, thats what Im thinking the RS messed up their numbers. So these hedge funds still with us looks like.
So CVI, Adage, Blackrock etc. didnt actually sell their positions based on whale wisdom. No need to panic yet I suppose.
Can anyone tell me which one of these are more accurate about 13F filings.
Whalewisdom vs Fintel.
Here are links: https://whalewisdom.com/stock/adxs
Fintel: https://fintel.io/so/us/adxs
It looks like both are showing different numbers.
Thanks
Im sorry I meant ASCO not AACR, and you are probably right about AXAL being handed over to another entity and be put on the back burner. Im pretty sure the focus is now PSA, HOT and NEO.
Averaging down as I said is risky but you can never tell with this company, longs actually might have their day.
Looking forward to AACR data for PSA with updated survival and biomarker data, even though I don't expect mind blowing results, but it would be interesting to see how the 6 patients who are still living are doing.
Another key part is the planned investigator study for AXAL. Hopefully once the hold is lifted that study can be started. (Just a note here, they had this initially for Q1 announcement but I guess its pushed to H1 solely because of the hold.) I'm almost certain they have something lined up already if not they wouldn't state it like that on the presentation.
On the SP front, who thinks this would go down further? I have a feeling low 3s will be reached soon before going back over 4. MMs probably have a huge sell order here and will keep the share price down till news hits first half of the year.
On that note, even though it might be super risky I might average down when it does reach low 3s. 52 week low is 2.7 or something.
Hey Guys, this might be slightly off topic. LM tech is showing potential in several cancer and there is robust T cell generation (Killer T cells and memory) in patients administered. I find that LM tech has such a nice added potential to work as a vaccine for diseases (especially viral). Do you guys feel ADXS has a place in the vaccine market?
Lol... I'm just fishing. That would be nice though wouldnt it.
The job listing are in my opinion surrounding merger. Legal counsel and software based jobs so data can be transferred over quickly and efficiently. I would assume you need both for anything like this. Saas is required for clinical data handling and transfer. Read through the descriptions. Why would this be fake listings. Wouldnt they potentially hire outside consultants to do this. Maybe they have kept it vague on purpose. I know I am kind of stretching but heck we need something to look forward to and imagine we'll be saved.
Just look at Head of management job description: "Merger Integration: Develop governance around business change management and practice integration associated with mergers and acquisitions, including review cadence, templates, guidance, and maturity. Partner with functional leadership to develop and implement plans related to business change management, communication, practice integration, and system alignment associated with mergers and acquisitions."
Guys did you see the recent jobs posted for Advaxis, location is Homdel, NJ. 5 high paying software jobs, some related to mergers and acquisitions. Any ideas on why Homdel? Didn't realize they had a setup there. These job listings might give some insight on what they are planning for. These postings are about a month old now. Maybe, they are using some consulting company in Homdel.
I think people didnt sell because if they did, they would incur massive loses. Its always hard to make that decision especially when ADXS says the AACR news was good etc. I mean we haven't got a break in 4 years now, something positive has to come eventually. At least thats the hope.
Just wondering with all this action has anyone actually reached out the investors relations person or emailed anyone at ADXS to get some insight? Theories and all are great but concrete responses would be even better. I am going to shoot one or two off today to get something about the timing of RS, AACR meeting and offering maybe throw in a few points about the share price as well and why the company said the ADXS-PSA news was good but still offered shares at 4$ or 0.26 cents.
Has anyone on this board actually reached out to the person who is listed as LHA investor relations person - Miriam Weber Miller? Wonder if we can actually get some insight from her instead of random theories.
So just for kicks, whats the next catalyst? On there corporate presentation they had partner for AXAL at Q1 of 2019, then 1H of 2019. Nothing else significant coming up?
Thanks so much! Appreciate the info.
Does anyone have link to poster presented for ADXS-PSA at AACR? Is there any information about the tumor response(Recist 1.1 criteria) etc?
Did any patients have decrease in tumor size? I would assume if there was increases in PSA specific T cells generated and antigen spreading then there would be some effect on the tumor? Did any patients respond in any positive way other than just life span duration?
Why can't they put up this poster on the website before the FREAKING RS and offering, wtf! Give the market a chance to take in that information. Its like you have to be physically present at the AACR to know anything in detail.
What kind of management thinks its a good idea to announce offering so soon after RS? The data was supposed to be a catalyst to bring up the price, why negate that effect by announcing it so quickly. All it does is allow for shorts to wreck havoc on the price.
Im just lost about what the rational is here in every aspect of this move.
It just tells me there is nothing to look forward to here in terms of partnership. Ken Berlin can't bring in a deal with our data.
Yes I am being optimistic. Good data could possibly bring in money. Given that tutes might be looking for SP bigger than 5. I hope we can touch 12 soon after RS.
In my case I make profit above 0.77 pre split. So I'll take anything over that, but I know im being even optimistic saying that.
What are the chances this gets bought out after RS? Haha wouldn't that be something.
If there is no partnership in near term its pretty much over for us. Dilution and shorting coming up imo. Hopefully it can jump a little after R/S so some of us can recover a bit of our losses. Ive never shorted a company before but I'm seriously thinking about this one after holding for 4 years.