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Q2 earnings report stated that it will take the remainder of the year to conclude documentation with the rest of the parters. Then three months to finish financing with the banks. So FID guess is now end of q1 2020 . Pushed back once again.
Souki and the CEO are very confident in reaching fid. The market doesn’t believe them anymore, because of how many times they have been wrong with timelines. This is the latest fid guess , made on May 15 . Very
Confident we will reach fid in a few months, so very confident fid by aug 15th . We will see ! Some how I think they will miss this also. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/f8da735a-768e-11e9-be7d-6d846537acab
Very true, believe me I’m not selling . Just been frustrated with their time lines. I bought 1000 shares at 8.16
And another 1000 at 10 . Only bought more at 10 because they were going to have fid by first of June according to the video at the time. Unfortunately I only bought 400 at 7.50. Souki was on CNBC - Jim Cramer tonight , nothing new as far as news.
Getting very frustrated with this management pushing back fid again and again. I bought 1000 more shares
At the end of March based on this video, thinking end of May early June they will have completed fid and started construction. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-03-26/china-will-be-largest-market-for-lng-exports-tellurian-ceo-says-video
May 15 Souki says he is very confident they will reach fid in the next few months . (Fid aug 15). https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/f8da735a-768e-11e9-be7d-6d846537acab
Newest video the ceo says fid will be two or three months from concluding documentation with partners. Even if they concluded tomorrow Fid wouldn’t happen til September or October. They keep pushing it back every couple months. Can see why the stock keeps going down. They seem to have the partners lined up , but negotiations with them don’t seem to be going well. Can’t really believe what they say anymore.
F.I.D timeline
september 2018 souki says fid by end of year
https://www.facebook.com/natgasworld/posts/us-tellurian-to-take-fid-by-year-end-souki/2246522168913542/
fid expected q1 2019
http://www.kallanishenergy.com/2018/07/02/tellurianfid-for-driftwood-lng-expected-in-1q-2019/
fid end of may 2019
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-03-26/china-will-be-largest-market-for-lng-exports-tellurian-ceo-says-video
fid expected q2 2019
https://www.lngworldnews.com/tellurian-to-make-driftwood-lng-fid-in-first-half-of-2019/
fid may get pushed to 2nd half 2019
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/041819-driftwood-lng-project-final-investment-decision-may-get-pushed-to-later-in-year
may 14th souki says very confident fid within the next few months . (by august 14 2019)
today on twitter there is a pic that has fid shown after q3 2019
don't think these negotiations are going as smoothly as they thought.
A couple notes of interest
unusual option activity the day of the india conference -- both the july 19 2019 $10 strike calls
and oct $10 strike
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/noteworthy-thursday-option-activity-tsla-clw-tell-cm1163780
Ever since the total announcement the stock has been in a Down trend. Don’t think the market likes the shares diluted. In the the long run it’s a good thing because there is 8 percent more shares but Tellurian will own 17 percent more of driftwood. Hence more $ per share. In the video I posted about a month ago , the CEO said
They were concluding documentation on a half dozen investors in driftwood, and that they were only two months away. Also only a few months from starting construction. So there should be lots of announcements this month? I’m surprised it’s gone down so much with all the positive news lately. As long as the CEO is telling the truth in that video we’ll be just fine. They are trying for July 1st F.I.D. Not sure how accurate her time line is though. In a video on March 26 they were 2 months away from concluding documents, now a video on April 15 says three months away.
On the schedule at ferc open meeting Thursday. https://www.ferc.gov/whats-new/comm-meet/sunshine.pdf
Haven"t sold mine yet, but highly considering selling half. The carbon tax does not bother me at all, 200 mil will be nothing for this company. The only way a carbon tax happens is to have a democrat president ,house and senate. They will have over a billion dollar tax break over five years. Although export permits slowed in the Trump administration is true, Charif should have just not said anything. Doubled my shares a month ago when ferc commissioner Chatterjee said they have the framework to approve lng terminals expeditiously . Watched the ferc open meeting thursday and the democrats say thats not true.
looks like we will need a fifth commissioner to get this done. Tellurian was supposed to take fid mid 2018
but looking like late 2019. When all said and done ferc will be over a year late on the final order . These guys that sold their shares will likely get a much better price . The market won't like may delays. it will also be much harder on tellurian to get investors with delays. Trump will get the right guy in there , but looking like june. With a couple months to get him up to speed, we are looking at august final order. Trump had picked David hill after two months, but Rick perry from DOE didn't like the pick and rightfully so. Now Trump is looking for someone else. Anyone interested in watching the ferc open meeting from last Thursday , its on their website. ferc.gov
The Calcasieu project that has been delayed by ferc has passed . Looks like I was too pessimistic about ferc .
This takes my concern away , will buy some more tomorrow.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-02-22/ferc-approves-1st-lng-plant-in-2-years-after-resolving-deadlock
Ferc acted as planned? Ferc planned to vote on the project in 2018 . That is when Tellurian was originally going to start construction. Then ferc told Tellurian the vote would be no later than Jan 10 2019. Still hasn’t happened. All I am saying is not having 5 commissioners will most likely push them back even more. The woman in charge of regulations for Tellurian expects the vote to be passed between 30-90 days from Jan 17. Then construction to start first half of 2019. If they don’t get the fifth commissioner soon , construction will be pushed to second half. Ultimately I think it will pass, and we will all do very well being a shareholders of this company. Just letting people know the situation at ferc , and that there might be another delay. I do agree with the rest or your statement.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chron.com/business/energy/amp/Commissioner-says-FERC-ignoring-climate-change-13610310.php
Worried about climate change, ironically by not allowing lng exports China and India will use coal instead.
In this article a Tellurian spokeswoman said she is not concerned. Sorry for the triple post , gave me error try again later posted 3 times. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/012519-us-lng-export-project-timelines-face-uncertainty-in-market-amid-regulatory-questions
Anyone else concerned about FERC? Now that commissioner Kevin McIntyre passed away, the commission
Is split 2-2 dem/Republican. FERC delayed the Calcasieu Pass lng project dec 20 and again Jan 22. (Didn’t have the votes) likely 2-2 . Trump is likely to wait until June to pick a replacement. Democrat commissioner
Cheryl A. LaFeur’s term will be up in June , and Trump will pick a Democrat and a Republican to replace the two. Once they are picked and get up to speed I think the driftwood project will pass. Tellurian ceo thinks 30-90 days from feis, hope she is right. The drama in Washington concerns me in the short term. Don’t think the stock will like that. I only own 1/3 of what I want , think it will get hit when this project is delayed and delayed.
Other than that I do love the stock , great plan , great management, they really know what they are doing.