is Loving China.. considering learning Mandarian
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I don't think anyone is arguing that point here. I for one am learning a lot tonight from everyone. I think what some are saying is that CKGT has been a very popular stock. With that popularity, especially on the OTC, you get a large number of unsophisticated investors who may get spooked from this.
AS a long term investor, you are right, this probably won't hurt you in the least. For a short term investor or trader, which makes up much of the OTC, it is going to probably create some panic.
That is at least the point I'm trying to make.
Because I'm not an "investor" I am a trader. The only stock I have an "investment" in is SIAF and that is because I bought a ton of it under $.05.
I buy and sell the same day.. sometimes within minuets. I am a day trader.
Fact is, I will probably trade CKGT tomorrow.. it will certainly be volatile enough.
What Headley Lamar said..
Your trying to over analyze this and make it too complicated. GAAP EPS is what will be used by the majority of the market.
If the few folks that want to use pre GAAP EPS to value the stock go for it.. but don't be disapointed when most don't.
This is a double whammy.. 1.) It just looks bad, shows their bookkeeping is jacked up and that their auditor screwed up 2.) EPS is down significantly.
If only 10% of shareholders sell, and the majority of the market is expecting a sell off, you should probably expect the worse.
The majority of the market however does not share your view though and that is what matters here. You can't be the lone ranger standing in front of what will probably be a stampede.
I learned quick, it is not what "I" think.. it is what I believe "others" will think.. and I would say most are not going to be happy and many of those are at a nice profit they intend to not loose.
The worse part is how far this stock has ran..
CNOA about the only recent one I can think of but it wasn't near as drastic as a $.22 hit to EPS.
It effects the equity bud, it is not a quirk. Welcome to derivatives and one reason why I hate them.
It doesn't matter what either of our opinions are. Going forward this will impact the earnings. Future investors are likely not going to be trying to decipher complicated deriveites. They are going to simply look at the EPS and that is what they will use.
You can't fight the market.. an individuals opinions do not matter.
Unless I'm mistaken, the right way to look at this for someone doing DD is to treat the preferred shares as already having been converted and the warrants as already having been exercised.
It is not that simple, the mechanics are not that straight forward. The higher the price, the greater the impact.
To be honest, I don't see this news as being news at all, or carrying any significance, other than to show that the company is polishing up its paperwork in order to meet uplisting protocols.
If I'm missing something, please let me know.
This is a MAJOR miss by the auditor.. it is very significant. This isn't polishing.. this is fixing a major screw up. I don't want to spread FUD, but if I had significant holdings in CKGT I would be knocking down doors and making a ton of phone calls to get answers... Christmas or not.
It isn't a quirk, those options can be excised and that impacts common holders based on their mechanics. That is the purpose of EITF 07-05, to properly account for this and accurately reflect the value.
Nothing in GAAP is designed to make up imaginary things.. it is a genuine issue to the equity structure. I know it might be a hard pill to swallow, but this board isn't about sugar coating.. it is the facts as they are.
It is also a VALUABLE moment to learn something probably very few of us (including me) understand.
CKGT - It does however impact P&L, any way you slice it, it impacts the total equity and that is the purpose of EITF 07-05.
As annoying as it may be, this is what happens when you use these types of derivatives. The complicated nature of them always benefits the holders.. and never the common holders. Looks to me like another case of U.S. retained advisers leading a inexperienced China management team down the wrong path out of sheer greed.
I'm doing some research into this because when something like this happens I view it as a educational event.
Here is what I have started with..
http://www.jhcohn.com/About/News-Archive/Understanding-the-Impact-of-EITF-07-05.aspx
CKGT Explained..
I just spoke to my sister in law who is a director of a PCAOB audit firm (lucky me haha).
Here is the scope, the options will impact the company moving forward over the vesting period of the option. They amortize over the life of the vesting period of the option.
The dividends will also impact the P&L moving forward.
So basically the warrants never got valued (oops auditor didn't ask the right questions during the audit/service). This will impact them moving forward.. it is not a one time issue.
Going to be a wild ride Monday I fear..
My source only briefly reviewed this, but based on what she saw this was what she told me. Please get a second opinion if you have money riding on this..
CKGT restatement ouch..
I've just been trading it and currently do not have a position. I have been waiting on a test of the 50 day.
Been reading up on it, yowsers $.22 hit to EPS. I don't like Companies with complicated equity structures for this very reason. DPDW was the last company I was in that had issues with complicated equity structures.
Another reason why I simply love SIAF... no preferred whatsoever, just common and no equity related to debt.
I'll be curious to see how the market responds come Monday. It could gap down pretty ugly like CNOA did. Will open some potentially great day trades. I do expect it to be quite volatile! Like a steaming hot potato!
Unfortunately, this is one of the major problems we face with China companies. They always have problems with their conversions to GAAP etc..
If I was CKGT's CFO, I would try to secure Bank financing using the land bank as collateral, which is something the China regulators have started allowing. Use the bank to clear out that debt.. having debt related to equity is always a nuisance.
The more simple the structure the better.
haha.. Well I'm waiting for them to start being angry again.
Trick to these subbies.. buy em when everyone is mad, pissed and calling the CEO a scam artist. Then sell when everyone is cheering how they knew the CEO would come through and exclaiming the "flippers will get left behind" etc..
Sometimes reminds me of how my 1 year old acts when she gets, or doesn't get her "Kookees" or "Juucee".
If your new to the stock, be prepared for the possibility that the volume will subside some. I've been here for almost a year now, since $.009, yep $.009 that is right lol. I think me and Tothe may be the only ones left from under $.05. I bought most of them at that point.
Up until recently this stock has been very easy for longs to flip/accumulate. During every rally (longs bled a few off) the volume would subside and the impatient would begin chasing the bids down (while the longs bought back).
The dynamics appear to have changed now that a flood of new money has rolled into town. Over $1M worth this past week alone. So previous patterns may be irrelvant now.
Simply put, don't panic if the stock stalls out and pulls back some. I've seen a lot of faces come ago out of frustration due to impatience.. this one requires some patience. It can find itself stalled into week long, low volume consolidation that can unnerve even the most seasoned trader.
Merry Christmas..
And join the facebook page!
I notice everyone is back in love with JD again.
Funny how that changes based on the price of the stock huh?
Don't make me sit up my coffee.
Up listing? The might want to start by at least preparing a proper information statement and publishing something missing most of what needs to be in it.
Looks more like a tout sheet than an information statement.
They don't need an auditor for a review..
They can go find a strip mall CPA or bookkeeper to do it. Doesn't cost much at all. Hell, even I have a review done every year on my financials.
Why did these guys publish an information statement and leave out 90% of the information required under 15c211?
That is twice something coming out of this Company has been half assed. Serious investors like me look at that crap and just chuckle.
If it is a serious attempt, maybe you should tell them to dump their current consultant and come talk to me.
Well the filing certainly looks better but it is missing a ton of information required by Rule 15c211
I take issue with the below. They have all those assets and can't afford a damn review? Whatever.. I call B/S. Without a review, I could value my assets at whatever the hell I wanted.. total crock.. and the stock still has no MM sponsor.
Valuation of Acquisition
As of September 30, 2009, the unaudited and unreviewed balance sheet for Hannover listed total assets of $21,112,938, including a library valuation of $16,015,670. Target believes that the acquisition and stock-swap agreement with Hannover which called for the issuance of 159,336.082 restricted shares of Target delivers a substantial value to other Target shareholders. Excluding the value of the ongoing operations of Hannover, the direct balance sheet benefit of the Hannover assets and library relative to the total number of Target shares exchanged to acquire Hannover represents a valuation of approximately $.13 per share.
$FEED building position at $4.53 - $4.52
40% gain, can't be unhappy with that, thanks!
Hope everyone has a Merry Christmas!
See you on the next trade opp.
CNOA management is the problem.. things seem to "fishy" with them now. So I don't think you could really compare. SIAF management has been beyond above par. I have never had a problem speaking with the CEO directly. I have not tried to speak with Management of CNOA, but based on accounts of others, it doesn't appear they are as easy to communicate with.
FACEBOOK
If your on it, I just created a Fan page for Emerging China Small Caps.
Just use the search bar in the upper right corner of your Facebook home page and search for "Emerging China Small Caps"
SIAF Technicals
Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM Buy
Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands Buy
Short Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 140880
Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy
Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 76906
Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 44396
Overall Average: 100% - Buy
Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
1.2300 1.0167 1.1767 1.3367
Composite Indicator -- Signal -- -- Strength -- -- Direction --
Trend Spotter (TM) Buy Strong Strongest
Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy Strong Strongest
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy Strong Strongest
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy Maximum Strongest
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy Weak Strongest
20 Day Bollinger Bands Buy Maximum Strongest
Short Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy Maximum Strongest
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy Maximum Strongest
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy Weak Strongest
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy Strong Strongest
Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy Maximum Strongest
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy Strong Strongest
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy Minimum Strongest
Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
Overall Average: 100% - Buy
Not many night owls up tonight..
Oh well.. done my DD for the night and looks like I will attempt to trade FEED again tomorrow. We should be entering into a short term rally here on this break out.
Of course going to intently watch SIAF.. and that's about it really. CNOA still has me to nervous to trade.
Huh? I was talking about the Volvo..
Sure would hate to have seen it get dinged up..
I got shook out of FEED today..
Was depressing actually, average was $4.42 and sold at $4.44 when the initial rally didn't hold the $4.44 support. It went on to run to $4.67 HOD.. That was a potential $.23 gain on a 16K block.. Damn I can't believe I missed that one. That would have been a weeks worth of effort.. lol. Instead I got beer money.
Talk about bumming out a joke lol.. I feel depressed now.
Ah classic..
RINO, needs to break and hold $30.07
In China you can also use your "land rights" as collateral for bank financing..
They just opened up at least $1M in secured lending capabilities.
I could only comment on trading it as I only "invest" in agriculture. Actually, I mostly trade just agriculture too.
But generally speaking, the chart looks very weak. Volume is kinda weak for a NAZcracker. In comparision, SIAF my little pinky, did more dollar volume today.
I would need to see two things, a definite solid break of the 50 day around $2.81, or you could use a standard trend line.
Confirmation for me would be heavy volume on the break out. But that is key.. it HAS TO BE heavy volume. No pussy breakout.
Once break is confirmed I would consider my first entry on the first pull back.
That is how I would look at SUTR.. if it fit my strategy, but currently it is not even in my watch list (most likely due to the weak volume).
This strategy sometimes doesn't work for me (example CNOA recently) but I feel a break must be followed by sustained heavy volume (example SIAF) in order to sustain any rally. CNOA sorta just recently eased through the breakout and volume came late.
I trade in large blocks, for a few pennies, so I must have liquidity.. at least $1M a day. My trading pattern would probably have to much effect on SUTR's market.. so that is another reason why I don't like it as is.
As for the business.. I have no idea what they even do. I just need to look at the chart to tell me what the market thinks..
My opinion.. the market is skeptical..
sIAF Yes, if you look at the chain of events...
The 2006 -2007 audit was completed on July 6th 2009.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sino-Agro-Food-Inc-Completes-iw-770165940.html?x=0&.v=2
It was suppose to have been completed much earlier but the issue of land bank valuation caused a major delay..
http://www.siafchina.com/english/listnews.asp?newsid=132
It was decided that it would take at least 2 months to complete 2008 audit. That would have put the 2008 audit being completed around September. By the time the Form was prepared it would be October/November.
By January 2010 they would have to be preparing for 2009 annual report now that they are a reporting company (whether or not the SEC has cleared comments yet).
This did not makes sense as the Audit form would in essence need to travel to China twice in a 3 month period. So the company chose to delay the filing so that 2008-2009 could be done at the same time (saving cost on auditor travel and expenses).
2008-2009 audit should be done in 1st quarter with the Form 10 filed in early 2nd quarter.
This is the plan, obviously there is always potential for delays.. but that is current guidance on the issue.
Now I know I'm moving to China..
I'm looking at another set of "eyes"...
Gosh they won't stand still... ...attempts to use mind control..
Mind control and X-ray vision..
The more you have.. the more powerful your powers!
Gives you special powers..
click on your name.. and look at your "marked by"
If you dig up anything else please don't hesitate to share. It is not exactly easy to look up stuff in China for us Americans lol.. Something about Mandarin being one of the hardest languages to learn.
Btw you just got a member mark.. and I don't hand those out too often haha..
SIAF China article..
Rough Google translation..
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fpress.idoican.com.cn%2Fdetail%2Farticles%2F2009082014381%2F