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As of January 5th Hycroft is down to $66m in cash
This mean a dilution is happening sometime this year
Page 26 is floatation recoveries not POX recoveries. The increase is simply smoke and mirrors as management lowered floatation recoveries earlier now raised them to what they have alway been dating back to 2011
And, it doesn’t matter as POX will fix the Ag as Jarosite rendering it to exceptionally low recoveries and without high Ag recoveries Hycroft just doesn’t work
Stock will increase when management demonstrates a financed flow sheet that gets Hycroft to production. Otherwise we wait while they burn cash then go bankrupt (again)
Anyone thinking that this investment will turn around quickly simply hasn’t done their homework. This is most likely a 3-5 year investment with extremely high risk (and potentially high reward)
This is a very long term investment. There is no immediate production that will be coming from Hycroft. The majority of the ore is refractory and will require complex processing options. None of the existing technology/options required for oxidation of this refractory ore are permitted for or owned by Hycroft. This investment is further complicated by the balance sheet and site cash burn. Currently there is more debt than cash and the site is burning cash quickly. There are two tranches of debt as I understand it. The first lien debt is straight forward and if no solution is found this group will own the mine and shareholders will be pushed out with -0- return (again). The second lien debt as I understand it is held by some of the hedge funds that pushed this project into bankruptcy previously. It appears the interest is pick interest and is paid in shares which is a big problem for me.
The catalyst for share price improvement are as follows:
(1) PFS with a reasonable capital and return on capital
a. Q1 2024
(2) A path to fund the mill (if PFS is reasonable)
a. Q4 2024
(3) Mill constructed and commissioned
a. 2029 (if permits can be obtained in a reasonable time)
I still think it’s a good project if the current debt issues can be solved and management can come up with a financeable flow sheet.
Exactly!!
Thank you
Your absolutely mistaken. All buildings including ones built on the mine site needs a building permit and need to be authorized by the County engineer. County Auditors do annual inspection for tax purposes.
In fact a mine on public lands in Nevada is more complicated that in a residential areas due to the levels of authorization permits and bonding required.
All facts easily verified on the internet or by calling the County Manager.
In this part of Nevada, it would need two permits
(1) modification to the WPCP with the state of Nevada
(and assoiated reclamation bond increase
(2) A county specific building permit.
I am not saying that there isn't new construction. i am saying that none of the legal requirements for new construction have been applied for and no authorization has been granted
(According to public records)
i searched both Humbolt county and Pershing county, on line records for building permits and cannot find anything. The large truck shop, MC and Crusher were issues in 2011-2012 to Allied Nevada.
This is the large vehicle maintenance shop that was constructed in 2012. The other buildings are (a) the old maintenance shop that was too small for the trucks, the old Crowfoot refinery building.
I called Agate Construction to confirm.
As far as POX testing i called NDEP and no permit has been applied for or given for POX testing at the Hycroft site
Checking the Nevada contractor board there are 5 underground contractors listed. Redpath, Dumas, SMD, Thyssen and Harrison Western. of these i believe only one is publicly traded.
I just called the Humbolt county Tax assessors office and none of these are currently on their roles as doing work at the Hycroft Mine. I have also called the BLM office and they confirmed that there are no underground mining permit that has been issued for Hycroft. Without a permit you couldnt do underground development
Hycroft is not permitted for an Autoclave and associated Oxygen plant and is needed based on managements current plans.
There is also the issue of capital required to build a mill. Depending upon the size of mill experts would suggest that Managment must raise over $2B in capital.
Permitting could take as long as 3 years and construction and pre-stripping another 3.
While I am a fan of the project and I own substantial stock I am also a realist.
This is a long-term investment with the key risk being management's ability to raise significant capital.
I can tell you with 100% certainty that there is no active underground mine at Hycroft. I flew over the operation twice last week. No mining, surface or underground. Just to be certain i called both BLM and NDEP. There has been no permit application by Hycroft, nor request for mining at Hycroft.
Underground mining was conducted at Hycroft in the 1800's for silver i believe but it was fairly unsuccessful. The only successful underground mining was for elemental sulfur dating back to the 1880's
All of the information is public and can be verified
There has been no spend by current management on infrastructure that I can find in their quarterly filings since taking over
I conducted a 3rd party review in 2012 and all of this was being constructed at that time as well as large scale mining of waste dumps
Regardless, a Merrill-Crowe doesn’t process ore it processes Au,Ag solutions that have been leached with cyanide
You still need a POX and Mill. The Mill is permitted but I can find no references to a POX or O2 plant
That is incorrect
One of the two Merrill–Crowe plants was constructed before 2010 and relocated to the old Brimstone plant
The second Merrill–Crowe and the crushers were built by Allied Nevada and commissioned in 2013. The crushers failed and were rebuilt by FLS equipment in 2019.
Allied Nevada also purchased the Mills and motors for the large Mill but some or all have been sold by current management.
There is no mining equipment on site, there is also no milling equipment capable of processing the sulfide ore at Hycroft. This is all from public documents and disclosures.
Current management has suggested that later this year they will update the technical report with a flow sheet and capital requirements to process the Sulfide ore
It is anticipated this capital will be over $1.7B and will take 3 years to construct after it is fully permitted
90% of the ore needs to be oxidized via POX
What the stock needs is a plan to get this circuit financed and built
Your post is tied to the sulfide heap oxidation that didn’t work
Management just posted an Oxide reserve of 1.1m oz of Au and 15M oz of Ag but very low grade.
With a new leach pad sitting there doing nothing I would assume if it was profitable they would be mining
But they are NOT mining!
Yes she did say that but it was pertaining to the reserves and resources. Not waste piles
This has not been publicly addressed since and based on the new resource statement where Silver resource went DOWN significantly, one could assume this statement was wishful thinking and not based of fact
You really need to read some of the older technical reports
Stockpiles (waste dumps) were drilled and then mined and processed between 2010-2013 (150 M tons I believe)
Technical reports dating back to the early 2000’s characterize the Silver in the oxide as primarily Silver Chlorides and subsequently not amenable to cyanidation. Silver recovery’s were historically low in the oxide mining
Later technical reports indicate the deeper silver mineralogy is amenable to cyanidation but the higher grade Vortex silver is refractory and needs oxidized prior to cyanidation
This is not their “initial” published reserve. They posted a reserve in 2022 prior to the drilling program. As a result of the 2022 drilling program they had a significant loss of Silver reserves
The gross reserve value declined due to the 2022 drilling program by $4B. With the primary economic driver being the loss of silver reserves
Looking at the reserve statement and comparing it to the February 22,2022 statement there have been some changes. Its good to see the gold grade go up but disturbing to see the silver ounces and grade go down. I was under the impression there was an upside to silver grade and ounces. Looking at gross value at $1800 gold and $23 silver there appears to be a significant loss in reserve value.
2/22/2022
Material Classification Grade M Ounces
Gold Measured and Indicated 0.343 9.564
Gold Inferred 0.343 5
Silver Measured and Indicated 0.54 446
Silver Inferred 0.33 150.4
Gross Value $39,932,400,000.00
March 27,2023
Material Classification Grade M Ounces
Gold Measured and Indicated 0.413 10.581
Gold Inferred 0.387 3.356
Silver Measured and Indicated 0.401 360.664
Silver Inferred 0.389 96.117
Gross Value $35,592,563,000.00
Changes in Past Year
Material Classification Grade Ounces
Gold Measured and Indicated 120% 111%
Gold Inferred 113% 67%
Silver Measured and Indicated 74% 81%
Silver Inferred 118% 64%
Gross Value Change $(4,339,837,000.00)
Scientist estimate that there is $700 trillion dollars in gold dissolved in sea water--No one is mining it either.
Only when management gives the market a clear path to production will we see the shareprice change.
Yes that is the case. There are thousands of holes drilled into this deposit dating back over 30 years. The geology of this system lends itself to bonanza type grades. This has always been the thesis for exploration at Hycroft. This is one of the few systems like this in the world with the roots still intact.
I haven't looked at it in a while but there is a hole at Hycroft names the LAC hole drilled by Lac minerals years ago. It was the highest grade hole every drilled at Hycroft and was one of the highest grade holes drilled anywhere for quite some time, but no one could expand on it.
The Vortex, Brimstone and Camel lower zones are attractive but they are very deep and require a lot of capital, or they need the upper lower grade transition zones to pay for the stripping.
Regardless until management has a plan to put this into production it will trade at cash (just my opinion)
There is no mining activities currently occurring at Hycroft. I am working in the area helping a friend out and have driven past it multiple times over the few past month. I have also flew over it 2 times in a small fixed wing. There are no mining activities occurring.
The stock is not moving until there is a plan to show how they turn the mineral resource into (ORE) Defined by the dictionary as: a naturally occurring solid material from which a metal or valuable mineral can be profitably extracted the important part is the word profitable.
The current management indicated a year ago that a feasibility was forthcoming. This message has gone dark and we are now drilling holes in a very drilled out defined resource and publishing short intercepts that have no context to increasing the viability of the resource. Yes the landholdings are large and the size of Manhattan but ask their Geologist how much of this has mineral potential? He will tell you a small fraction. Large landholding are always staked to protect yourself from encroachment and to have non mineralized land for waste dumps, leach pads and tailings facilities.
I own over 800K shares but view this an option play only. If they get lucky before the shares go to $0 then I may make some money. I like the region and love the geology so will hold until the next step in the life cycle of this mine, knowing full well if management doesn’t start talking about production our shares can only go down.
What I don’t like is what management is doing. Selling hats and shirts and gold and silver they didn’t produce. This is 3 card monte and not a development company. At some point she needs to talk about a plan to move the deposit forward to production or we will continue to trade at cash. The way the cash is being spent the stock can only go one way—Down!
The value of the gold and silver is based on the cost to mine and extract. $28B is meaningless until Hycroft Management shows a pathway to profitability. That's always been the case with the sulfide portion of the deposit and the biggest reason no major has bought this mine.
There are 20M tons of gold dissolved in sea water and no one is mining it either.
This mine will be a major producer but not until they prove to the market they can mine and extract the gold and silver for a profit.
Mudrick has been in since the Allied Nevada days. He owned the bonds and shorted the stock. He was also one of the three hedge funds that took Allied Nevada into and out of Bankruptcy
For the life of me I can’t figure out his game.
Your correct I missed the post pox leach
I will check old TReports
Your correct I missed the post pox leach
I will check old TReports
.6 would be $35/ton rock
$35x 96% recovery=$33.60 sales
Mining cost@2:1 strip=$6/oreton
Grinding and floatation $13/ton
POX@15% mass pull $8/ton
Oxygen for concentrated S2 $4/ton
G&A $3/ton
This wouldn’t include financing, reclamation and closure
Rough numbers it would take .6gpt Au/eq to pay the bills using floatation and POX
Capex would be high ($1.2-2B)
(If you can solve the Ag/Pox issue). Without that your capital would go down as well as recoveries as concentrate sales would be required.
I have looked at Rosebud for multiple companies over my career. Interesting play but a long ways from being a mine. Development drilling engineering and permitting would be 5-10 years if you’re lucky. It also has a high price tag and a very high royalty. If ownership would restructure it would have someone in drilling right now
Rough numbers it would take .6gpt Au/eq to pay the bills using floatation and POX
Capex would be high ($1.2-2B)
(If you can solve the Ag/Pox issue). Without that your capital would go down as well as recoveries as concentrate sales would be required.
I have looked at Rosebud for multiple companies over my career. Interesting play but a long ways from being a mine. Development drilling engineering and permitting would be 5-10 years if you’re lucky. It also has a high price tag and a very high royalty. If ownership would restructure it would have someone in drilling right now
Acidic POX is traditional in the Carlin trend where silver values are negligible.
Acidic POX fixes the silver as Jarosite, which is mostly cyanide insoluble. There is technology (lime boil) post oxidation that was deployed at Barricks PV mine in the Dominican Republic. Unfortunately recovery’s have never met expectations and costs are high
Technical studies reference much of the silver at Hycroft as Sulfa Salts which are cyanide soluble so pre oxidation leach could be deployed. Unfortunately this is not the case for Vortex which contains most of the higher grade silver
1gpt is going to be difficult to build a 1$-2b mill on. I believe there is only one large mill in the world with this low of grade (Kinross) and it makes a lot of metal but seldom makes a profit
I’m hoping for higher grade
My understanding was the novel process was intended to oxidize the sulfide (refractory) ores that are predominant at Hycroft then traditionally leach them on the heap leach. My guess is the oxidation rate was not achieved, thus the gold and silver recoveries achieved would be lower than planned
Past flow sheets for Hycroft are more traditional for these refractory ore. For these ore is crushed, fine ground then concentrated through floatation. Concentrate is then either sent to a smelter off site or oxidized with an Autoclave and leached on site. This process typically achieves gold and silver recoveries in the 90%+
Hycroft ore is predominantly sulfide ore that will require some type of refractory processing to achieve commercial recoveries
There are multiple technical reports (43-101 compliant) on the web
All are compliant with technical standard for sampling and assaying and signed off by a geologic QP for the report
These reports go into great detail on all aspects of sampling and assaying
There are multiple technical reports (43-101 compliant) on the web
All are compliant with technical standard for sampling and assaying and signed off by a geologic QP for the report
These reports go into great detail on all aspects of sampling and assaying
I don’t have any knowledge of Eric Sprotts involvement with Hycroft. Sprott Lending now holds the debt for Hycroft. They are not Eric Sprott.
Hycroft does have a board member that works for Sprott lending
There are two Sprotts. One is Sprott.com and the other is Eric Sprott. I was working on a project two years ago and Eric Sprott took a position in the project. I was told specifically they are separate companies
Yep, I have over 13,000 warrants because her idea of the truth and mine are much different!
I really don’t have any indication that the new management team is any better or worse than the previous two
They do have much better public market experience which could be helpful in brokering a sale or a mill build.
Hopefully the third time is a charm!!
There are still 2 key issues, the first being the hedge fund ownership and the second being the same investor relations department. I can’t imaging why this person who has lied to all of us for years is still there
The next earnings will give us a good indication of what the true company value is. If we don’t see a strong indicator that the new technology is working then our Warrants (as well as their stock) may have little to no value
Having gold and silver in the ground is not an indicator of value. Someone needs to prove that they can extract the gold and silver at a profit. That has been the problem with Hycroft for the past 7-10 years
As I have said before, without the technology Hycroft is a company that has a healthy debt load and needs to raise $2b to build a large mill with no oxide ore reserves to pay for the mill build
Like it or not the value of our warrants is tied to the new managements ability to execute on the new technology
I hope to hear some good news out of the new management group soon
I believe he is the new CEO’s brother. Not sure but its what i have been told.
You correct, it’s worth Billions, if the new Heap leach sulfide treatment works. It’s worth nothing if it doesn’t work . Without this new unproven technology it would need someone to invest $1.5B to build a mill and treat the refractory ore in a traditional manner. In this market $1.5B and three years to build would be difficult
I am optimistic that if it works and the company is public the market will dictate the real value and our warrants will see value
Rumors in the town of Winnemucca are that they haven’t gotten it perfected yet and they are not making money—-but who knows for sure