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I think the whole sector will run IF the FDA ever legalizes. But that's a big if. Otherwise it's only chance is manipulation which we've seen a few times in the last year which could maybe double it's price but there's not enough pump to get it higher than that.
If the FDA issues guidance I think CW will benefit more. My 02
Many moons ago there was a company that started clinical trials on CBD gum for smoking cessation and I think at that time cvsi would have been smart to make a deal with them so they could use an economy of scale to certify the gum both for smoking and chewing tobacco.
Yeah everyone bailing. I have to laugh at myself because I bought back in a little thinking the q1 was good news, already 12% down. Haha. Deader than dead.
Hi, yeah I'm good, thanks.
In theory if he's saying 5m quarterly near term then q1 better be on that path. He should know that definitively at this point.
The only thing that jumped out to me was 44 employees. That number looks high. I believe they have a fulfillment house handling shipping/handling, they have the product manufactured third party, who are these 44 people? Off the top of my head. 4 sales, 2 marketing (I assume they just agency for most programs), 4 CRM, 2 web, 2 IT, 2 admins, 3 accounting, 2 finance, 2 purchasing .... That's 23 people. If they are packaging & fulfilling I can see a warehouse of maybe 15 with management (generous), but there's no way there's that many in a 6000ft facility. For a company of even $20m annually 44 employees is a big nut to cover. Maybe they have a far bigger sales team but I doubt it.
I don't see how they right that ship with this team. And there's no way to boot this management team.
The few positive signs I see.
They were cash flow positive in Q4 and they increased rev Q over Q,, but until we see what happens 1q23 this may have simply been a case of putting off payments or pulling ahead sales. You want to believe it;s real but....
They have some skin in the game again. Dowling 2.5m options at 4 cents. It's not much but it's better than nothing.
But as you said they still lost more than the company is worth. Did they say anything in the call about projection for 2023? Can they maintain positive cash flow? I;m assuming the call wasn;t good considering the stock went down today.
I think they die a slow death.
Unless there's a golden goose industry change like FDA regs I dont see a path for this company. They might have a few wins and keep hope alive but they've trapped themselves IMO. Undesirable for acquisition, no internal path to profitability, management that can't be removed and won't leave, no money to make big moves.
I just want to get above 4 cents.
I'm glad for you but I'm not convinced my issue is isolated, it never is. There is a systems related issue here. Or for whatever reason they were trying, and succeeded in firing me as a customer.
Of course this is just one of many missteps with their websites, CRM and ordering over the years.
It's unfortunate, they had a market advantage and a good product but their basic business operations suck IMO.
This is great they did this but I feel compelled to share my recent cvsi experience as a comparison.
Imo this company does the extra well and fails at the basics.
In contrast to your experience mine has been disasterous.
I subscribed to a product and for no legitimate reason I stopped receiving it. No email. No call. Nothing. Just stopped. I checked the subscription and it was there but said it needed a payment method. Well the method worked for the previous payments. They indicated I must have changed the credit card. Nope. At the time I only had that one.
So after a while I tried again, this time with another credit card. And for several months I received my product. Then a few weeks ago I thought it was odd I couldn't remember the last time I got one and my supply was long gone. I've been buying gummies locally and those were almost gone. Hmmm. Check my subscription and it's gone entirely. No subscription info at all. It should show at least 2 in the history. Nada.
Now maybe there was an email saying this was happening and I missed it. But even if they told subscribers "hey you need to start over" that's bad business.
This is one of the many indicators that this management isn't up to the task. They aren't doing the basics. I get the feeling they look at subscription data, see they're losing ppl, and send care packages to retain customers instead of recognizing their system is dropping customers. Their product isn't so good I should have to beg them to sell to me. Their sales and turns are horrible, they should be begging is for every sale.
I think it's great they sent you this but they can't manage basic subscription services. And when I notified them of this issue they did nothing.
I was out and like a fool I bought back in with 80k shares as a roll of the dice because hope springs eternal then this subscription nonsense. Imo until they have a change in leadership they can't get out of their own way.
Agree 100%
At the risk of sounding like a broken record ... i sent him a letter with specific identifiable problems, when I didn't hear back I messaged him on linkedin just to ensure he got it. To my surprise he responded immediately and set up a call. Then he ghosted me. I presume because he actually read the letter.
In hindsight this was a huge red flag and I should have sold every share right then. I'd be $200k better off.
He's not the guy. He can't even handle constructive criticism from a shareholder
I ran a similar size business ($50m rev) and oversaw products from concept to obsolescence so I have some idea of what it takes and I have zero confidence in him. Admittedly I want in food/supplements so I have him the benefit of the doubt. Now I see it's not the industry it's a lack of basic business acumen. I think guys like him might be better in a larger company but at this size you need to be involved in everything. You need to know every inch. He doesn't have it and he's made it impossible to get rid of him
I don't think this management team is up to the task. And they've dug themselves in so they can't be removed and made acquisition unattractive.
It's Dowling's company. He's virtually untouchable.
Initial market reaction not great today. I'm invested in 15 stocks outside funds, all are up today except CVSI.
Has the investor group manipulating this moved on?
It appears the volume on trading and board comments has dropped off.
Hopefully some board members cashed in at 6-7 cents to buy back at 4.
Hindsight 20/20 it should have happened in coordination with farm Bill. The world believed it would and when it became obvious the one side had no idea what the other was doing that was a red flag.
Then no FDA director
Then covid
I read an article suggesting it wouldn't happen until farm Bill renewal next year. Who knows.
https://www.naturalproductsinsider.com/regulatory/key-lawmaker-co-sponsors-cbd-supplements-bill
Sounds like if there's regulation it will be after 2023 farm Bill.
I don't think your idea is bananas at all but the golden parachute is a pretty large barrier to entry when you're talking about buying a 16 million annual revenue company.
I just hope they're not putting all their eggs in one basket of acquisition and not continuing to try and be self-sustaining. Their efforts to reduce inventory and improve turns has not looked as focused as a company in their position should be in my opinion.
It makes perfect sense so I'm not doubting it but how did you learn about a trading group pushing this around?
If memory serves the last Q they said inventory value was just under $7m so they leveraged that to borrow $1.6m.
If this holds it looks like I sold at the wrong time after Q, 5 years of holding and it doubles the week after I throw on the towel, ha. . And honestly I'm not sure why this news created this run. There wasn't 140m worth of convertible shares for this to double the price. I guess we'll see. I'm glad to see what little I have left make a bump today.
Ok so if I'm reading this correctly they took a loan out to pay off convertible debt so that specific debt doesn't turn into shares outstanding.
They are paying a 20% fee for this loan.
It will be paid back in 38 weeks if my math is correct. Roughly 9 months.
They bring in about $310,000 weekly and they will repay this loan by $40k for 8 weeks, then $56k weekly after that. $56k weekly is about $700k per quarter.
Until this is paid off it's unlikely they get to break even so we're at May 2023 at the earliest assuming they can make the other necessary moves to get there.
Does this look right or am I off. Don't have time/desire to deep dive the 8k.
I did think they settled quickly to pave the way for a something and maybe that is still the case, however some of the other moves make me question whether there is any strategy at all. For example instead of paying $130k bill they let it become stock at 4 cents a share, but this also triggered their reserve stock purchase price to fall from 7 cents to 4 cents. I can't make business sense of that move.
And with continued declining revs combined and no realistic break even time frame who would buy this out? Plus there's golden parachutes in place for Dowling and I think Grasser as well costing millions to pay them off.
I only hold about $1500 worth of this now so I don't have much skin in the game so take it for what it's worth.
I wish you the best of luck. I'm rolling some of this money into CW and probably some other mj companies. They are all gambles & the market will rebound to some degree I just don't see CVSI having the best odds. I still own a few shares here.
I don't think it's at max pain. They will need to raise more money to survive and that's going to hit the shareholders. This could hit 1 cent.
Even at this level the CEO has bought zero shares.
and they were talking about investing in new products not even CBD. other supplements. So there appears to be no plan to stop development.
I sold over 300k shares today. with a cost average embarrassingly high this solidifies a several hundred thousand dollar loss. And from the peak of my value in this company about a million. I drank the koolaid and I paid the price. Depending on what happens with my orders between now and close I still have about 50k shares.
Hindsight is always 20/20 but getting rid of the Monas didnt help at all. In fact I think it hurt.
We've been told they are on target to get to break even for the last 3 years and we keep getting further. The amount of q losses vs revenue is going the wrong way.
I don't think Dowling is a straight shooter and I don't think he knows what he's doing. Long ago I mailed him a letter with clear and measurable concerns (most of which I posted on here as well), then I followed up with a message to him via linkedIn indicatign I sent a letter and asking if he received it. To my surprise he replied and asked for a call. Then I think he read the letter. He ghosted me for the call and never responded to another message. I should have sold every share then. If he can't take legitimate criticism from an investor how can I trust him to have the fortitude to revitalize this business?
It's been a helluva run and a painful learning experience. I wish everyone good luck but to the longs I encourage you to think if you're holding on for a miracle. if you aren't trading it should you get out while you have anything left?
Just listened to parts of the conference call.
Can anyone explain how they think they will arrive at cash positive by end of year? They're selling $4m and losing 2 per quarter. They've barely nudged their inventory down.
Without a major catalyst I don;t see how they get there. Did I miss something?
They keep talking merger/acquisition but they've given themselves huge golden parachutes, who would take that on?
Overall another disappointing Q with optimism that borders on dishonest IMO.
3% of the company changes hands with no change in value,. Unusual
I think there might be no analysts on the call. Last time was only one. How many analysts are going to make a Monday call for a 3 cent stock with $4m cap?
If they take no questions I think it is because no one is there.
There's zero excuse not to hit those numbers. In fact at 3 cents loss per share that's $4.2m loss (140m shares). If they can't beat that they are pathetic. If they lost more than $2m for the quarter they are not even close to break even this year. Frankly they should be at $1m loss or less if they are truly managing their business to neutral.
I know not everyone shares this sentiment but if they're down again and don't have anything significant & positive to report I agree the company likely won't survive. For me this is the last chance to show they will make it.
I moved a little to cw a while back and that's up 50%, the rest in CVSI is down another 25%. If I don't like what CVSI has to say this quarter I'll start selling off all of it. Not that's it's worth much anymore.
This has been a wild and disappointing ride. I put far too much faith in a company I have no direct involvement in. A miracle would be nice but there's only so many reddit stocks out there and at this point it would take plain dumb "investing" like that to get this back into dollars.
I would be happy if they accepted Amex and could get their renewal billing straight for debit cards.
They need to fix their fundamentals before dipping into exotic forms of payment.
I still think they're choosing to settle this in the time and way they did has some significance I just don't know what it is. Transparency of strategy is not this company's strong suit.
122m outstanding in March, then 134m in May, now another 8m added which is about $300k in value at current prices.
What's concerns me is doing it now before the q report when they know the results. They couldn't make it until then? Do they think sp will crater more so this is the time?
If there's a positive take it's that the 10m shares in March was worth about $1m, the 12m shares in May was about $800k in value, this is only $300k in value. Are we getting closer to break even?
Agree.
If they don't have something positive and concrete I'm out. Last q was the last excuses for me.
I only have 350,000 shares, and I'm horribly embarrassed to say at one time I was worth over a million dollars in this stock. Why I didn't sell at 5, 4 or 3 dollars will be a lifetime regret.
But I am fearful of another horrible quarter with nothing but bad news and excuses that results in the stock to collapse down to two cents or less. Hoping for the best but mentally preparing for the worst
FDA regulations will undoubtedly consolidate the market and drive sales somewhere but not necessarily here.
For me FDA regs will create excitement in the sector and money will dump in. That's when I get out.
I struggle to believe CBD hits $5b in 2022.
Even if the biggest players, including CVSi we're to account for $1b which seems unlikely, that means if there's 2000 other brands, each has to do $2m to get that other $4b.
I don't think there's that many brands doing that amount of sales.
If they are then the FDA regulations would not only create far more demand it would also clean out a bunch of those little guys.
Bad times is great opportunity for smart people.
My most successful years were during the recession because you have to make good decisions and those that can't sink. Bad management can survive or thrive when things are great.
Given the new California registration and other economic concerns CVSI could do great things in bad times.
Management can show their genius. Not holding my breath
Their social media has been poor as well.; At one point they were passing ppl to make these videos that were not moving the needle. I can't make sense of their marketing honestly.
I hope they do some pr on this. It's a big deal imo
What volumes?