Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I have a Canadian friend (wintering in Florida). He lives near the border because he talks about crossing over to go to the stores. I will see him tonight at trivia and ask some questions.
Canada does not allow DTC advertising. HLS is excited that the timing of the launching Canada will coincide with the launch in the United States because most of the Canadian population lives along the US border and has U.S. television station access.
Instead of 4 they are now saying 2.6. Not as scary.
HLS has talked about the other drug in their pipeline that will fit in with Vascepa. Has anyone listened to their calls?
As far as the commercials, Amarin will make the change to them as soon as they get approval from the FDA.
The majority of the Canadian population lives on the border with the U.S. and many of them will get the same commercials that they get in the U.S.
Canadian physicians go to many of the same yearly meetings and many are already aware of the drug getting approval.
If you look at their financials you will see they have growing sales and If you look at LinkedIn, they do have cardiology reps and they do have medical science liaisons. I am not sure where you are getting your information. Canada is not the U.S. and they have very good management. Listen to their calls and you will see things a little differently.
It would be years away from a CVOT trial and a very, very expensive drug. Side effects can be severe and could offset any benefit.
That is great news. I mentioned to Amarin IR early last year that they needed to make sure Managed Care was working on this very thing.
There is probably an out of pocket at the beginning of the year that the patient has to meet. That is why Amarin said they usually see a dip in 1st quarter prescriptions.
I was telling someone last night that I was brought up to know the difference between a lie and truth. The boy who cried wolf was reiterated. Reputation was important. I also learned along the way the difference between opinion and fact. It is a shame that many in today's day and age do not get a shxx about any of that.
$ACST - Oppenheimer Clown Leland - TRILOGY 1 May Not Be Predictive of TRILOGY 2, Top-Line Data by Mid-February Reiterated $7.
How often do these type of appeals happen with this kind of case? You seem pretty sure of yourself.
There is a trial underway and it is not going well for Dr. Reddy et al. The settlement would not be higher based on what is going on. Amarin is not going to suddenly up and settle for something substantial when they are winning.
Worse case scenario. I used to work in finance for a chain of hospitals. One of my responsibilities was net revenue, budgeting and actual. Open heart surgeries were our bread and butter at the flagship hospitals when statins and drug eluting stents came out. We moved on to cath labs and Orthopedic surgeries but it was never the same. You have to plan for the unexpected and not try the go big or go home approach. I got booted out because of my warnings. That company has been living on the edge ever since and recently got bought out.
I like Its slow and steady approach, it may be why I still have so much invested here. We will see how these reps do, we may need more at some point. If JT says he likes our patents as conservative as he is I believe him. Once the DTC starts in a big way patients and doctors should know about it. It should sell itself at that point. I am good with GIA in the US. Partner the rest of the world.
Um, Statin docs are not just statin docs. They have patients on statins and patients not on statins.
What reports are you referring to? Who is saying 60/40 besides you? 90/10 seems more reasonable from what I have heard.
The good news is Vascepa can be prescribed by any physician. It may be internal med, a cardiologist or an endocrinologist. It could even be a PA. The drug is safe and effective. It should be very easy to prescribe.
With that said, many of these patients see more than one physician and get medications from various physicians. A physician will get experience with this drug even if they are not the one prescribing it. They will see the results. Scripts went up 80% or so year over year, before expanded approval. That should tell you that trial results, word of mouth, the old label commercials and physician marketing and a few reps have made this happen. In a few months we will have full board advertising to both physicians and patients. An all out assault. It's going to be good.
You are your friend might want to look for new doctors.
It is my understanding that if Amarin wins this generic fight currently underway, they will have three more years before any generics can file a new sNDA. Actually that is true whether Amarin wins or loses although if Amarin loses there will eventually be a generic on the market. Once the patents hit the orange book, a generic company would have to believe that they can invalidate not just the old patents but the new ones as well.
Yes they are but they are also considered passive, otherwise they would be filing a 13D.
We know we will get an update around February 13th. We will only get an update early January if they have a big change.
I had looked back at the last few years and they filed around the February 13th date. I think they are considered passive.
If there is not a filing at that time we can assume they have not made any big changes.
We should get an annual update around 2/13.
All Filers: Within 45 calendar days after the end of the calendar year to report any change in the inf
ormation. Rules 13d-2(b), (c) and (d)
Qualified Institutional Investors: In addition to the requirement stated above, within 10 calendar days after the end of the first month in which the person’s beneficial ownership exceeds 10% of the class computed as of the end of the month, and thereafter within 10 calendar days of the end of any month in which the person's beneficial ownership increases or decreases more than 5% computed as of the end of the month. Rule 13d-1(b)(2) and 13d-2(c)
Passive Investors: Within 45 calendar days after the end of the calendar year to report any change in the information. In addition, an amendment must be filed promptly upon the person's beneficial ownership exceeding 10% of the class and thereafter promptly upon the person's beneficial ownership increasing or decreasing more than 5%. Rule 13d-2(a)
That is not correct. Baker Bros have such a large position they are considered a beneficial owner.
Yes, Dr. Reddy filed an sNDA to the FDA wanting to launch a generic, I think it was in 2016. Amarin had to sue Dr. Reddy for patent infringement. That is what this trial is about.
Yes, it is not part of Dr. Reddy's business model. They want to launch in 2029.
If your personal opinion should carry zero weight, why were you giving one earlier and acting like you knew exactly what you were talking about?
Dr Reddy tried to get the whole case thrown out when they filed the motion for Summary Judgement. The Judge was not convinced and that is why we go to trial. If the Judge was not convinced before the trial occurred based on Dr. Reddy best argument and everything Dr Reddy had available, what makes anyone think they are going to be able to win at trial? Keep in mind based on Amarin winning its partial Summary Judgement that the scope of Dr Reddy's arguments will be very limited.
Why would you say this? "If Amarin loses on either of the 2 claims then they lose the entire US market for V."
From your article "All of Amarin’s patents expire in 2030, and therefore, success on only a single patent claim theoretically could suffice"
You can't appeal if you look ridiculous and have no grounds for appeal.
They are currently trending at 500M a year. That would continue to go higher with or without label. With the big label it just got it should trend higher pretty fast.
Don't judge, you don't have to be fat to have trigs > 150 and CVD or diabetes w/ two risk factors for CVD.
That is BS. The market has not spoken, short interest has spoken and loudly. AMRN will clearly rebound as it has on these dips in the past.
HLS has already commented on the unique nature of this launch that the DTC ads in the US will bleed over into Canada. Normally the launch in cCnada is years behind the launch in the US. They are planning on taking advantage of the timing.
It looks like a concerted effort. Competing interest haven't changed but will get more aggressive. We have the dietary supplement industry and the generic industry. We have those selling the PCSK9s and other cholesterol drugs. We have those promoting the Strength Trial. We have the health industry which will be promoting fish and Keto and atkins. We have the surgeons who would rather cut and the interventional radiologist that don't want to lose the business of stunting. The list goes on. It is nothing new. Vascepa sales will continue to grow. I wouldn't let it bother you.
I wonder if some of us had arterial stiffness and as that resolves we think our "muscles" feel better. I tell people it feels like the blood runs better through my veins. It didn't happen right away but over time.
Physicians in the know are having these kinds of conversations.
ICOSAPENT ETHYL FOR THE PREVENTION OF CARDIOVASCULAR EVENTS
https://www.emjreviews.com/cardiology/article/icosapent-ethyl-for-the-prevention-of-cardiovascular-events/
https://emj.emg-health.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/10/Icosapent-Ethyl-for-the-Prevention-of-Cardiovascular-Events.pdf
It looks like from ths everyone should be prescribed Icosapent ethyl.
Vascepa and Amarin now have a CVOT behind them and an approved drug for a huge indication. A huge marketing campaign is going to begin soon that is going to be able to tell everyone about the reduction in stroke and heart attack. Amarin is going to go full board at it.
The worthless products have been on the market all along and sales of Vascepa have ramped up very well over the last year. The script growth will go parabolic once the insurance coverage changes and the expanded label commercials that show CVOT benefit begin.
Sales reps have over time become less and less a part of the medical system. Physicians are often parts of large chains and are restricted from seeing sales reps or they refuse to on their own. The internet has in so many ways replaced what sales reps used to do. the vascepahcp.com website will tell a physician all they need to know to prescribe. The drug is a very safe drug without problems with interactions with other medications. Any physician that has heard of it can figure out how to prescribe it without needing a sales reps. Physicians here who whine and complain they can't get a rep to visit them are just wanting to be pampered. It's not that they don't know how to prescribe it, they just want to be pampered.
Standard of Care is going to go a long way toward helping the launch. I would imagine the ad campaigns will be able to include some of that information.
I think you are overthinking the deceitful products, they do not have a multimillion dollar ad campaign underway. Education will will over deceit. A small percent may fall for it but the numbers will be staggering with time.
Buyouts are at a premium because the premise is that a large pharma can promote the drug better than a small pharma. If there is no buyout premium that means that Amarin is doing a great job. I'm okay with it either way. Since reduce-it results have come out Amarin has had a big presence at every conference and have been in every publication. Dr Bhatt has been a great spokesman for the drug and I don't think there could have been anyone better. Standard of Care should make this easy to sell whether they do it alone or with a buyout.
Is this your first review of a price target? That 15% chance is just something they do to have conservative price targets. They do not really think there is a 15% chance.
Amarin has to stick with the label. Patients will see the commercials and want it. Physicians will prescribe as they see fit. If a patient doesn't find the right physician the first time they will find it the second. People currently taking Vascepa know the drill to get a prescription and it will soon be much easier once insurance companies start covering it. Amarin can't use the cardiac candy or liquid stent conversation but we can.
One fo the big flaws is that they note the tax loss carry forward but then once they show $AMRN profitable they assign a 25% tax rate. Profitability should actually be much higher.