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I felt a few of the mortgage companies should have failed back in 2008ish. It would have forced some of these companies to be more fiscally responsible.
Debt is fine if you like that kind of thing...it's even manageable as long as things are going smoothly.
But, when things go bad, servicing the debt (individuals in particular) gets tough...
Problem we have now is that most of the revenue generating business are shut down until further notice...and the people that really need help are getting kicked to the curb...
So, when you get that take out, leave a little extra on the table...it is going to be a tough time for a lot of people for a while...
This guy has interesting views on both the virus and economy...worth a watch...pretty sharp and well spoken.
The US equities market has lost $11.5 trillion in capitalization since peaking on February 19, pushed down by coronavirus risks and a global oil-price war.Mar 12, 2020
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-2016-trump-win-gains-erased-coronavirus-risks-2020-3-1028991585
Almost 7 million unemployed...and going higher
It's very simple....the economy is SHUT OFF for another month (minimum) - How can the market go up??
Last bounce was because of bailout bill...congress is on recess till mid-April
Nothing will happen but fear, over-hyped virus and selling...
Could be this...but sounds like a nothingburger...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-to-meet-with-oil-ceos-about-helping-industry-11585763413
It was all about the rescue bill for the last three weeks...on again, off again, political blah blah....that gave the market hope. That story is over for now...nothing to look forward to for a couple weeks except bad news...could just grind lower till then...
Hard to find a buy catalyst...the fact that the economy will be shut down for another month minimum, really puts a damper on any buying enthusiasm...
That coupled with the fact that congress is on vaca till mid April, spells two weeks of likely grinding lower....
And if/when something unexpected happens there is a high probability of a big swoosh lower...
No zero, I think we'll see another big dump...then the pieces will slowly fall back in place:
Virus under control
Authorized treatment for dire patients
Economy getting turned back on
Problem is, people have to stare at the TV and markets for the next month...psychology will not be great. I just left Home Depot and some guy was arguing nastily with the returns lady to get a cash return...it got ugly....will be more and more of that at all levels...
Can't imagine a reason for market to go up in next week or two...
'Back to work' would be only possibility, and that isn't likely to happen...
I got in a little early on the fall, but fortunately got out on the recent bounce with...this thing could grind a lot lower...I'm more of a swing trader than a day trader.
The emotional and financial wake of all this will be sad...
Nimble is good....the fight today will probably be for 2500. Will be surprised if we close above it. Overall with congress on recess, and the US shut down, it's hard to see how the next couple weeks is not down...
There are those that believe this whole virus thing is a scam and overblown...whether it is or not is irrelevant....the economy is still turned off until further notice...
Probably plenty of fire...it's difficult to understand the damage that will occur with the US shut down for another month...
I'd bet the virus has been in this country much longer that our fearless leaders believe...
What really matters is that the US will be shut down for another month. That is an economic strain that has never been seen...could end up being a deep hole to crawl out of...
Nice work...You could be onto something there...curious how the next few days go...fear and greed are timeless...with US 'closure' continuing thru the end of April and oil dropping, that should set the stage for a test of your 2200 area...
Nice charts!!
China has ordered all its movie theaters to close again after more than 600 had reopened
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-orders-all-movie-theaters-to-close-again-2020-3
For the past 3 sessions, a minimum of 80% of NYSE issues advanced, and 80% of volume went into those issues.
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) March 26, 2020
That's happened twice before in the past 80 years.
The 1st kicked off the mid-80s bull market. The 2nd kicked off the 2009 bull market.
LOL...souvenirs. Funny, I was looking for about 110 on UTX....thanks for the big picture!
RSI is back into the 'slingshot' range again...
I agree...your logic is sound. Covid-19 is sad, the flu is sad and many people die from it every year. Heard someone talking this morning...if the economy continues to be shut down and the country falls into a depression MANY more people will die than from Covid-19
Everyone needs to protect themselves and others the best we can....but the machine needs to be turned back on...there is no other solution.
Don't fight the Fed...
Fortunately deaths are much lower than the Italy, France, China, etc...hopefully, it stays that way
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093256/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-deaths-worldwide-by-country/
Here's the rest of the story:
"But the drive by leaders to speed the bill through the Senate was slowed as four conservative Republican senators demanded changes, saying the legislation as written “incentivizes layoffs" and should be altered to ensure employees don't earn more money if they're laid off than if they're working.
Complicating the standoff, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, whose campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination has flagged, said he would block the bill unless the conservatives dropped their objections.
“What I am saying is that two can play the same game,” Sanders told The Associated Press. “This is most certainly not the bill that I or any other progressive would have written," he said, but added that he supports it in the main, given the severity of the crisis.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronavirus-stimulus-rescue-package-20200325-wnws3gxb2jdxzeck3q6mfp345y-story.html
Bernie Sanders threatening the relief bill...
Protect yourself, protect the old, protect the weak. Everyone dies sooner or later.
This virus has probably been in the US far longer than most think. Just seeing it now because of testing.
150,000 people die EVERY day!
Administration (NHTSA) data shows 37,461 people were killed in 34,436 motor vehicle crashes, an average of 102 per day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year
Oh noooo!!!!!! Everybody park your cars they are killing machines. Turn in your keys!!
Hopefully they can vote remotely...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china
“It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang told reporters on Tuesday.
Patients who were given the medicine in Shenzhen turned negative for the virus after a median of four days after becoming positive, compared with a median of 11 days for those who were not treated with the drug, public broadcaster NHK said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china
“It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang told reporters on Tuesday.
Patients who were given the medicine in Shenzhen turned negative for the virus after a median of four days after becoming positive, compared with a median of 11 days for those who were not treated with the drug, public broadcaster NHK said.
The trillions of dollars thrown into the system since Obama is what drove the market higher...not manipulation. Now more trillions are going to find their way into the market.
Not necessarily tomorrow but soon enough...
zero interest rates, crashing oil, lack luster gold...where's the money going to go?
Don't fight the Fed...
Don't fight the Fed...
Thanks, same to you...
I think the administration is being reasonable. I agree, the big problem is that hospitals are essentially at capacity, and when those that need care (preexisting conditions, old weak, etc) have to go, this has the potential to be a big problem.
This is why there is such an effort to stop the virus asap...
They asked visitors to stay out of nursing homes for now
Also, the Declaration of Emergency can eliminate some of the bureaucratic medical rules such as cross state care, places they can put patients in the hospital, etc.
This all has the makings of a mess for a while...hopefully warmer weather slows things done as well...I don't get the impression they are hiding anything....in fact, lately I've heard much more logic from these last two press conferences...
All the cancellations of sports, travel, etc are intended to stop the spread of the virus and get to the other side of the bell curve...
Cheers...
I don't watch FOX or much news at all...I read a lot. I've lived a long life, seen a lot...I'm able to think for myself...and may have a touch of oppositional defiance... :)
...I did listen to the press conference today and it was presented reasonably well. Need to stop the spread to protect the old and the weak. They did say that the vast majority of the population should have no problem with the virus (other than spreading it) and that those who are elderly and/or who have preexisting heart disease, lung disease or diabetes need to be vigilantly protected and cared for if they do develop the illness.
First coronovirus antibody found? https://innovationorigins.com/dutch-researchers-find-corona-virus-antibody/
As far as the market goes...it's a tough call here. With interest rates headed to zero and fed printing press working overtime....it's possible the decline could stop here until the next 'crisis' emerges...
OTOH, it had reached bubble mania levels...but, where's all the money going to go with zero interest and the Fed pumping the market?
Seriously? 4 deaths...
https://abc7news.com/6008027/