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No brainer under a buck.
How about 4 cents over...still a no-brainer?
Have had Liberty on my radar screen for a long time now and I think it may be time to finally land this sucker. I like Liberty's ascending triangle a helluva lot more than Aphria's descending one right now.
Think it may be concern about the Fed raising interest rates that is hurting both the high-tech NASDAQ and the high-growth pot stocks in unison...
Didn't know that...you learn something new every day here at the ol' iHub!
I do remember from all the research I did way back when about precious metals that many articles said it was generally better to buy the physical gold itself rather than buy into ETFs or mining stocks as a proxy but I never invested in any myself so I have zero experience with those kinda stocks. It looks from your posts like you are heavy into them so maybe I will check them out myself sometime.
Maybe we can start a new recession-proof "Marijuana & Mining" hedge fund called Pot o' Gold.
The Midas Letter is an excellent source of info about MJ companies but they also often cover copper, silver & gold mining companies so you might wanna check them out from time to time...
https://midasletter.com/mining/
I'd much prefer that you be right about the MJ sector being neutral rather than downtrending because then any swing trading I did would likely yield even better gains.
Regarding Origin House...it's kinda hard to describe but just looking at its price chart over the last few months it just feels like it has some strength behind it. It has spent much of its time riding along the upper Bollinger Band and when it does take an occasional break and drops down it usually just bounces off its 20-day moving average and shoots right back up. It was one of the last pot stocks to break down during the recent crash and when it finally did it didn't fall as far as many others did and when it rebounded it did so faster and farther than most. There have been some days when it was one of the best performers in the green even while the rest of the sector was mostly red or only up a little.
I just have a gut feeling that ORHOF really wants to go up but the MJ sector won't allow it to break free and is holding it back. So in the absence of any specific news it just kinda gets pushed around by the sector as a whole. That earnings report coming out soon might be just the stimulus it needs to separate itself a little.
Origin House is the Michael Corleone of the marijuana industry...
You're probably right. California alone dwarfs all of Canada in potential market size and that's one reason I'm so high on this stock besides them having some pretty sharp management.
I'll likely just play it day-to-day...maybe if it spikes up real nice between now and then we'll unload half of it and let the other half ride, I dunno. I'd feel pretty stupid if I sold it all off and then logged in here in late November and saw all you ORHOF longs partying after it skyrocketed 30% because of a kickbutt earnings report like CannTrust did the other day...LOL.
https://www.potnetwork.com/news/canntrust-holdings-stock-price-skyrockets-following-impressive-financial-reporting-results
Although it gave back 10% on Friday.
I bought some gold coins and a little silver and platinum in the mid-2000s when I started getting scared about the stock market a couple years before the junk mortgage crisis back in 2008 but none since then so I'm not really the best person to ask about precious metals. Gold doesn't always do well during market crashes but more often than not it has proved to be a good hedge when investors freak out as equities plunge and everybody gets crushed trying to exit at the same time...
https://goldsilver.com/blog/if-stock-market-crashes-what-happens-to-gold-and-silver/
There is so much overwhelming debt in the US and most other countries right now that I think gold might prove to be a great place to stash some cash but each investor will just have to make that decision for himself...
https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-is-cheap-inflation-is-coming-you-do-the-math-1537582480?mod=barpkt19
Precious metals are probably not the best place to park your money over the long haul but if things do get ugly it might not be a bad idea to have some tucked away just in case. Along with a rifle and ammo, some bottled water and a bunch of MREs...LOL. Just kidding...I'm not really a survivalist.
You know by now that I am pretty bearish on the MJ sector as a whole and am not a big believer in buying and holding any of them over the long haul right now. I am sure there will be a few big winners but I'm not smart enough to pick them. If someone held a gun to my head and forced me to choose I would probably pick 3 or 4 of the US-based stocks since I think they are undervalued relative to the Canadian ones and have a much bigger potential market and therefore a much bigger potential upside. Origin House would definitely be on that list as well as possibly iAnthus assuming their acquisition of MPX goes through. A couple others I've looked at a little that I have considered swing trading but haven't yet is Charlotte's Web and Trulieve. I've also read good things about Liberty Health but they may be a bit overvalued right now. While I like to buy and sell these pot stocks frequently I still prefer to only trade those that I believe have good long-term potential and are "undervalued" at least compared to other MJ stocks.
At the risk of boring the crap outta you, here is what I've learned since I started swing trading these pot stocks that may help you a little if you decide to give it a go. Whenever you enter a trade it is pretty important to have realistic expectations of what kind of returns you can reasonably expect if it goes well and much of that depends on how the individual stock has been trending at the time...as well as how the sector it's in has been faring lately (which is especially important for these MJ stocks since many of them often go up and down together). If you don't have a good grasp on what a realistic % target is going in then you also won't have a decent idea when a good time might be for getting out.
Over just the last 3 months alone the marijuana sector has experienced practically the entire gamut of possible market conditions. Starting in mid-August with the Canopy-Constellation deal we had a huge runup that lasted for almost a month...followed by about a month of mostly sideways trading...followed by a sector-wide crash that lasted a couple weeks...followed by a partial rebound that lasted between a week or two...and now we seem to be in a retracement period for the last week or so. That just about covers it all! Based on the trades I've made over most of this period I have established some rough guidelines (subject to change) of what the typical gains I think I can reasonably expect assuming no major screwups on my part (which is always just 1 mouse click away)...
Trending Upward: 20-30%
Trending Flat: 10-20%
Trending Downward: 0-10%
When I say downtrend I mean a relatively shallow decline in average prices over time...in a severe selloff like we saw in late October it woulda been almost impossible for even the best swing traders to have consistently made any profits and avoid losses. Note that the above is trading from the long side only like I do...if you like to short stocks then that opens up a whole new realm of possibilities and opportunities. The above goals are mine only based on my own personal experience to date...a smarter trader than I am with sharper TA skills and timing than I possess would very likely be able to do better than that but I'll be more than satisfied with the above if it continues. So far the majority of my trades have been in the 15-20% gain range with a couple small losers and a few big winners but most of these trades were back when all these pot stocks were basically trading flat.
I'm not fully convinced this sector has hit a double bottom yet like that one chart you posted the other day might have indicated...not 100% certain but I think the MJ sector may be in an overall downtrend right now so I am lowering my expectations to the bottom category accordingly and won't be terribly surprised if some of my current and near-future trades end up as losers. IMO, this may not be the best time to be swing trading pot stocks...at least from only the long side as I do. I typically only have maybe 1 or 2 open positions going at a time now instead of the half dozen or so that I sometimes had all open at once back when market conditions were more neutral than negative. If I were you I'd either hold off altogether (no fun in that!) or paper trade for a while (boring as hell!) or only trade small positions until things look more positive just to get your feet wet without losing an arm and a leg in the process.
After doubling down on Origin House early Thursday morning we're currently up very slightly on ORHOF...not sure if I wanna be in this stock or outta it when they announce earnings at the end of the month. I've been fortunate enough at this point to have avoided any really big losers and would like to keep it that way if at all possible...LOL. Any thoughts on that?
Extreme volatility can be frustrating for long-term buy & holders but oversold & overbought conditions are right up a swing trader's alley and is exactly what he's looking for.
We doubled down on OrganiGram yesterday after our opening trade on Monday quickly headed south and ended up selling this afternoon at very near the day's high for a decent gainer in only 2 days. The % gain was only roughly half of my average trade to date but sometimes you just have to take what the market gives you and be thankful it gave you anything at all...LOL. It was my quickest swing trade to date and every time I exit one with a profit be it big or small I breathe a sigh of relief that the broader markets in general or MJ sector in particular didn't totally tank during that time.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hedge-fund-boss-who-predicted-87-crash-says-get-ready-for-some-really-scary-moments-2018-11-15
We also doubled down on Origin House this morning with a limit buy order at $6 that quickly filled a half hour after the opening bell. Averaging down is a technique I've successfully employed several times to either turn a larger loss into a small one or turn a medium-sized loss into a nice profit. This is just one of several reasons why I don't like using stop losses...if a stock I buy initially goes down I'd rather not get stopped out at precisely the time I might be looking to add more instead! I'd obviously rather have the stock immediately go up after entering a new position and that has happened some times but nobody's timing is so good that that occurs all the time. I'd rather exit manually after considering all the options rather than have some computer mindlessly do it for me thus ensuring a loss.
One way to limit losses is to simply not trade huge positions in the first place. Stop loss gaps are like a leverage dial...the tighter the gap the more shares you can trade for a given maximum allowable loss. But the market will only allow you so much leverage before it starts kicking you out of trades almost immediately that could very well have been profitable. These volatile OTC pot stocks just usually won't allow you to place tight stops and get away with it.
Each person simply has to trade as they see fit based on a multitude of personal factors that are unique to each individual. So far I am very pleased with the results and returns I've achieved to date but what has worked for me may not work for the next person. Everybody has to experiment a little and find their own comfort zone is all. If you do start swing trading just start off small...you will make mistakes just like everybody else does so why pay for expensive lessons when you can get them cheap instead? Concentrate more on the % rather than the $ at first and then your positions can get larger once you have developed a system that seems to work for you and still allows you to sleep at night.
Now whaddya say we get ORHOF back above $7 a share so I can close out another one???
Lately I've started also looking at Heiken Ashi candlesticks among a lot of other technical indicators...they are a modified form of traditional candlesticks. Don't know yet if they are a good indicator or not but so far at least they seem to be somewhat reliable when used with several other TA tools. What I like about them the most is that they really help to clean up a chart and make spotting potential trends easier...I just find traditional Japanese candlesticks terribly messy although I still use them to eyeball potential resistance and support levels since Heiken Ashi sticks don't show true prices...
https://www.investopedia.com/trading/heikin-ashi-better-candlestick/
Wish I could put up a chart to show ORHOF but right now it has a bunch of red bars near the hard right edge lately that have solid bodies on top and long wicks coming out the bottom. Those are bearish and almost all of the pot stocks have them right now.
I also am starting to like Keltner Channels a lot for the same reason...they help clean up a chart and are not as wildly changing as Bollinger Bands are when things get volatile...
https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:keltner_channels
I'm still not making perfect entries and exits yet (and probably never will) so obviously these indicators are not magic bullets but I figure the more TA indicators you look at the better the odds your trade will likely have to be profitable, even if only slightly better. They help to at least give me a rough idea what the potential risks and rewards might be for a possible trade and give me a clue where some reasonable target buy and sell prices might exist.
Personally, I really don't care what Apple stock does. Apple is just a symptom of the overall weakness in the broader markets and certainly not the cause. IMO, the big markets are going down...and they're probably going down hard. May come before Christmas, or perhaps in the first half of next year, I dunno...but if I was a betting man (which I obviously am because I like to trade pot stocks after all!) I'd bet we're a lot lower in the not-too-distant future than a lot higher. But I should state for the record that I am somewhat of a closet Gold Bug, so whenever I read scary articles about the market plunging I tend to believe them more than the all-is-well keep-buying-on-the-dips rosy ones.
I've read numerous times over the years that the "sin stocks" often tend to do well during a recession when the stock market is unmercifully grinding ever lower...stuff like beer, wine, cigarettes, chocolate, etc. I don't think I actually ever took a look and verified this for myself, so this assertion could very well be wrong. But if this is really true and not just another erroneous financial myth, I imagine once there are just a small handful of pot companies left and the vast majority have either been acquired for pennies on the dollar or totally disappeared into oblivion then the few MJ stocks that survive will probably fall into this category and may fare well even in bear market recessions. But that is still years in the future at this point and these MJ stocks are far from being mature enough to trade rationally just yet...so if the market as a whole totally tanks then most of these marijuana stocks are probably going down with it.
One good thing...apparently there is a brand new product out there that investors of all political persuasions may find useful should we get hit by a long overdue and painfully severe bear market...
https://www.wired.com/story/trumpy-bear-sales-divided-the-world-existential-abyss/
Conservative investors can clutch theirs tightly for comfort and sob into it while they watch in horror as their portfolios get sliced in half or more. Liberal investors will no doubt find some solace by kicking, punching, strangling, burning and stabbing it while they watch their 401Ks go up in smoke. Not gonna reveal which category I fall into...but let's just say I'm getting ready to sharpen a few long knives just in case. Hmm, maybe I should buy several?
Damn, I was too busy jamming and not busy buying ORHOF below $6.
Flushed the riff-raff out at least...it was the "End Of The Line" for all the faint-hearted weaklings.
Hope you're right...if I crank up "End Of The Line" any louder I'm gonna fry my speakers!
No reason on Earth disappointing earnings from the big-cap Canuck companies should drive the small to mid-cap American ones down like it has today. I told you these pot stocks are still way too much intertwined...one of these days they'll stop behaving like they're all in a big basket but until then we'll have to somehow make do with them all acting like they are in one huge ETF or MJ hedge fund. The market often overreacts...think I just might buy me some more Origin House soon.
As Buffett always says...when others get greedy it's time to be fearful and when others are fearful it's time to get greedy. Or maybe stupid...guess we'll find out soon enough!
ANOTHER healthy correction!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Are we done yet??????
Apparently not. I just looked up "falling off a cliff" in the dictionary and it said "see Origin House price chart at 1:33 PM EST". But it's cool...I just talked to my broker Kevin Bacon and he reassured me that we have absolutely nothing to worry about...
Big-cap Canadian pot stock earnings the last couple days all similar...in some cases revenue doubled and even tripled while their losses increased...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cronos-swings-to-loss-while-revenue-nearly-triples-shares-fall-2018-11-13
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/canopy-growths-stock-falls-after-losses-widen-revenue-misses-expectations-2018-11-14
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tilray-revenue-doubled-but-losses-widened-ahead-of-legal-pot-sales-in-canada-2018-11-13
All down ~5-10% in premarket trading...gonna be mighty tough for the US-based operators to stay afloat with the Canuck companies dragging everybody down. Not sure Origin House is strong enough to stay green. Will be interesting to see what the American MJ stocks do with the Canadian companies disappointing.
Perhaps Canada should stick to Olympic hockey.
Sorry, I only just now saw that you are not yet in NorCal...thought you were already there for some reason.
Looks like the 20-day simple moving average was a little more accurate than the 20-day exponential MA was today. Simple MA said $6.33 and the exponential MA said $6.45. She's sitting right on the SMA at the moment.
We'll see how long she stays down here...like I said last night this stock doesn't seem to like being in the lower half for long. These pot stocks are still much too interlinked so good or bad earnings from one company can affect the others way more than it should if the sector was more mature and these stocks were trading more independently like they do in other more traditional sectors.
And the broader markets may be dragging the MJ stocks down today as well...it's like constantly having a sharp axe hanging over your head.
Forget the daily chart unless you are swinging or rolling.
I'm swinging! If/when you ever try it you will have to adjust your mindset and approach quite a bit because it is a lot different than buying & holding.
Hope you are enjoying your new digs in NorCal. I lived up that way for a short time when I worked for Aerojet...between Sacramento & Lake Tahoe. Real nice country...terrible what with all the fires raging right now, although I understand it's worse in SoCal than up north at the moment.
I prefer our stocks to catch fire rather than our forests.
PS Just saw that ORHOF hit $6.29...seems my $6.30-$6.50 range kinda nailed it today. Make enough predictions and occasionally one will actually be right.
Aurora earnings report out...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/aurora-stock-falls-as-earnings-show-cannabis-companys-investments-are-still-the-big-earners-2018-11-12
Skimmed through it real quick...seems to me their revenue from pot sales is way up but they are spending money hand over fist.
Hard to say what this will do to the other MJ stocks...I can see the revenue figures and strong sales being potentially encouraging for the other pot stocks as a whole and any spending problem being unique to only Aurora.
I suspect the market will likely overreact as it often does to all these earnings reports one way or the other and will trade accordingly. We're back into Origin House & OrganiGram as of today...if the market overreacts on the positive side we'll be looking to sell into strength and if the market overreacts on the negative side we'll probably double down on one or both when the timing looks appropriate.
Several big-cap Canuck MJ companies gonna be reporting earnings over the next few days...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pot-companies-to-reveal-earnings-less-than-a-month-after-canadian-legalization-2018-11-09
Best buckle up and return your trays to their upright position, folks.
Late last night I posted...
I'm thinking we may see it drop down to $6.30-$6.50 in the next few days.
Today's low is $6.478 as of right now.
"Winner, winner, chicken dinner!"
Well, all 3 of us can't be right...but all 3 of us could easily be wrong!
That's what I like about TA...you can show the exact same chart to 4 different people and get 4 different opinions...
#1: "This stock is definitely headed up!"
#2: "This stock is going down for sure!"
#3: "This stock is gonna trade sideways for a while!"
#4: "Hell if I know!"
The 4th guy is the one who's always right.
"I project a green day on Monday."
That's funny, because I looked at a bunch of pot stock charts after Friday's close and I kinda came to the opposite conclusion. But hey, differing opinions is what makes a market so that's cool!
I looked at about a dozen different MJ stocks I'm interested in swing trading and it seemed to me that the vast majority of them are right in the middle of their Bollinger Band ranges right now and hovering around their 20-day moving averages. But for most of them their RSIs are headed down, their Stochastics are headed down and their last couple Heiken Ashi bars are all red. So IMO we're probably headed south for a couple/few days to start the week.
Origin House is a little higher than most...right now it's kinda in between its upper BB and its 20-day MA. ORHOF seems to be a pretty strong stock...it spends most of its time in this upper range and doesn't like to drop below its 20-day MA too much. The last time Origin House closed below its lower Bollinger Band was way back in mid-July...even the recent pot sector crash couldn't drive it down that low so she definitely has some oomph behind her.
I'm thinking we may see it drop down to $6.30-$6.50 in the next few days and if it does I'll enter a new position at that time. If it then heads back up to its upper BB then I'll eventually sell for a profit again but if it should instead break through below its MA and head toward its lower BB then we'll just double down and buy some more when I think she's close to bottoming out.
Anyway, we'll see who's right. The winner has to buy the loser a cyberbeer!
Part 2 of an overview of US MJ companies including Origin House...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4220123-best-ways-play-u-s-cannabis-industry-part-2
Last week's Part 1 here...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4217607-best-ways-play-u-s-cannabis-industry-part-1
We bailed out of ORHOF on Wednesday 5 minutes after it spiked to $8.40 after the news that Sessions got fired hit the wires...just couldn't resist banking some super nice gains after only 2 or 3 weeks of being long. Sometimes it just makes sense to "sell the news" when investors get a little too exuberant. But I still like this company an awful lot and will be looking to buy back in at more reasonable prices very soon. I believe Origin House could very well be a winner for swing traders and long-term buy & holders alike.
I tried my first trailing stop yesterday on ORHOF and while it never filled I kinda liked using it knowing it would help lock in some nice profit in case of a nosedive but I still didn't like it at the same time. There are just too many instances of potentially funny stuff going on...the stock would just be sitting there meandering up and down on the 1-minute chart acting very well-behaved and then all of a sudden there would be a huge line shooting out above or below the main candlestick body outta nowhere and then it would just as quickly resume its normal price fluctuations. Either they got some young fumble-fingered dyslexic interns entering wrong prices by accident or somebody is playing games and maybe trying to occasionally take out some stop losses and trailing stops. Luckily those suspicious moves came close to mine a couple times but I cleared them with pennies to spare. Not saying I don't trust those crooked MMs...but I just don't trust those crooked MMs...LOL.
Not all US stocks participated in the big runup this past week or show a similar stairstep pattern...MedMen did have a few steps but then broke down a bit. But as you said their situation is somewhat unique so I would expect a little variation from stock to stock.
As I've mentioned here before almost all these pot stocks still show a huge correlation to one another and often move up and down in unison. I think that shows that many investors/speculators still treat them as a homogeneous entity...the sector is still not very mature and as time goes on I would expect that we will start to see them begin to behave more independently from each other as real earnings become more important than just hype to institutional investors who want to see results. That's when the better companies will begin to separate themselves based on performance and the losers will begin to fall by the wayside...and there will be more than a few in that latter category.
If anybody wants to see just how closely some of the stocks follow each other just plot HEXO & OrganiGram together on a price chart sometime. These are two of my favorites as far as Canadian-operators are concerned...they are both mid-caps that IMO are undervalued compared to the big boys and I have successfully swing traded them several times. I was shocked when I finally put them on the same chart a few days ago. Since I follow these 2 pretty closely I am familiar with their price action and had noticed they usually track each other, but it wasn't until I compared them on the same chart that I saw just how much the same they really are. I used their prices starting in mid-October of last year and then plotted their % change based on those prices and while HEXO usually had larger % gains and losses the two lines tracked each other almost perfectly moving up and down in unison. I added a couple others and they too also tracked to a large degree. It was a real eye opener and confirmed my suspicion that many MJ stocks are still much too closely linked at this early stage but that will eventually change with time. The cream always ends up eventually rising to the top given enough time.
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/origin-house-announces-release-date-of-third-quarter-2018-financial-results-2018-11-05
Start separating, creamy Origin House.
What do you make of that stairstep pattern I discovered many of the small to mid-cap US pot stocks are showing the last week, John? I don't know if that is a good thing or a bad thing. I figure either big money is slowly ratcheting up prices to suck us little guys in and then dump and leave us holding the bag...or they believe that a lot of the US-based pot stocks are undervalued right now and are good investments so they have just been making incremental daily buys because they believe some of these stocks will be nice winners over the longer haul.
I tend to think it's probably the latter but would like to hear other people's opinions.
You know that 5-day stairstep pattern I posted soon after today's close? Well, it ain't just Origin House doin' that. Check it out...the page will load a thumbnail price chart for today so you'll have to hit the 5 day button to see what these random ones I checked have done over the last week...
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cwbhf
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mpxef
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ithuf
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tcnnf
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gtbif
Origin House just has the flattest and most well-defined stair pattern but a lot of them are pretty much doing the exact same thing. This isn't the action of a bunch of small investors randomly throwing a few bucks at this or that MJ company...this seems to be a coordinated money flow into mostly US pot stocks. Takes big money to manipulate a market like that.
I don't know if we are all being set up for another huge fall...or we're all just a horde of happy gnats riding along on a big elephant's butt as he rumbles toward his favorite watering hole.
Had a fairly tight 20 cent trailing stop for much of today on this sucker and only came close once or twice. She was rock solid all day long.
Money pouring into Origin House the last 4 or 5 days with opening gaps and sharp gains every day on steadily increasing volume now reaching record levels.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/orhof
Check out the 5 day chart...now that's what I call a stairway to heaven.
Marc Lustig for President!
Very interesting new 15-minute video here just posted a few days ago by the Midas Letter which I am appreciating more and more every day...
https://scs.fidelity.com/webxpress/help/topics/learn_order_types_conditions.shtml#whataretheguidelinesfortrailing
https://www.fidelity.com/trading/faqs-order-types#
What are the guidelines for trailing stop orders?
Trailing stop loss and limit orders are available on all listed and OTC securities. For listed securities, the trigger is based off the last trade, regardless of whether it is a buy or a sell order. For OTC securities, the trigger is based off the bid for a sell and the ask for a buy. You can enter trailing stop orders as either day or good ‘til canceled.
Seems they offer them.
I've sometimes used limit orders to enter or exit a position but have never used stop losses or a trailing stop once my swing trade was underway. Don't care for them myself but that's just me.
John, I can't respond via PM because I am not yet a paying member of this fine establishment so I don't have that feature. If I find myself wanting to post more than the allowed 3 per day or desire some of the other features of being a paying member I may shell out a few bucks and sign up but at this stage I think it would probably serve me better to mostly keep my mouth shut and learn more by reading other people's posts than spend a lot of time typing too many of my own...LOL.
Anyway, here's goes my 3rd and final post of the day! Gonna be some profit-taking and no doubt some ballsy shorting of Origin House at these levels but will be interesting to watch what it does over the next few days and weeks after this big runup since Oct 30th. As you know I like to swing trade these stocks so usually I'm out when we have a nice gain (like we do right now!) but I may treat this one a little differently, I dunno. It probably has gotten a little ahead of itself at the moment but looks strong overall and has a real bright future IMO so while I may still be in and out of this one at times I will probably be more biased toward a longer-term hold and might sometimes be buying on the dips rather than selling into strength...or perhaps a little of both depending on what I think may be best at the time.
BTW, be advised that our broker does indeed offer trailing stops on OTC stocks so that was one thing you were worried about should you ever decide to try swing trading yourself. Think we might try it out on ORHOF in the not-too-distant future but if we do get kicked out we likely won't be out of it for long because methinks Lustig & Gang are gonna rock & roll on the West Coast. Much more potential for solid appreciation on the US-based pot stocks than the Canadian ones, I believe, so have been biasing my investing/speculating a little more towards the American operators lately. I hated iAnthus before they acquired my MPX but that merger changed my opinion of them assuming the deal goes through in January...so we've indirectly bought them lately using MPX as a proxy and get it at a very nice discount before the swap. Hadley Ford is one sharp CEO as Origin House's Lustig is and a company's management will be crucial in determining which few of these MJ companies will thrive and which will dive...which IMO will be a large majority of them. There's maybe 2 or 3 other US-based companies I've had on my watch list for a while but these are the two I've been trading so far of the companies operating in the States. So far, so good.
If them shorties don't cover their losing positions soon that wedgie you mentioned yesterday may soon start causing some serious internal organ damage at the rate she's climbing.
When I saw and posted that Motley Fool article not too long ago about Origin House being the 3rd most heavily shorted stock in the MJ sector I was not alarmed but maybe just a little concerned. But the more I thought about it the more I realized there were at least 3 or 4 reasons why that was a GOOD thing and not a bad thing...especially if it is a solid well-run company that has sharp management like OH has.
Wish I knew who was buying all this Origin House stock the last few days so I could send them a Christmas card.
I see that Origin House just blew through its all-time high of $7.00 a share. Haven't double-checked my math but pretty sure that means that anybody who shorted this stock and still has an open position is by definition losing money.
This stock sure does seem to like spending most of the time happily riding along its upper Bollinger Band.
REAL nice move today that kinda came outta the blue on no news. If my charts are right today's final closing price was the highest one ever...the all-time intraday high is $7.00 on October 16th when many other pot stocks also set all-time highs right before the crash. Also, today's big runup came on the single highest trading volume day ever for the OTC side of this stock...over 1.1 million shares. Up big on big volume is usually bullish.
Since most of the Canadian-based stocks also posted decent gains I can only surmise that what happened today might not be so much big money rotation out of Canadian-based MJ stocks and into US-based ones but instead may be new money coming in which would also be very encouraging in the intermediate to long-term. As of a few weeks ago this was the 3rd highest shorted stock in the marijuana sector...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/10/21/heres-which-marijuana-stocks-investors-are-betting.aspx
May not be for long if it still is! The shorts may have screwed the pooch on this one. Some of today's action may have been due to short covering, I dunno. We'll have to keep an eye on the short interest...that sounds like a good job for John...LOL.
Origin House dominating the West Coast and iAnthus/MPX kicking butt on the East Coast would definitely work for me.
Commander Lustig just reported that we had a successful 1st stage cutoff and clean separation on time at 11 AM and confirms that we have a good ignition on the second stage.
This is Origin House Mission Control, over and out.
What's going on here...we got any news or is this a short squeeze happening or just some big money rotating out of the Canadian-based stocks into the US-based ones? iAnthus doing real good as well...
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/orhof
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ithuf
Whatever it is I sure like the way it's looking at the moment...like one of them fighter jets pointing upward at a 60-degree angle with the afterburners on.
Yeah, I saw that video a while back and posted it here.
Don't get me wrong...HEXO is one of my favorite Canadian-based operators. I try to mostly only swing trade stocks that I like and think have good long-term growth potential...one reason being simply because if one of these trades ever blows up in my face and I don't wanna turn a big paper loss into a real one at least I'd rather be sitting on a good company that I wouldn't mind holding for a longer time than I mighta originally planned rather than being stuck with a dog. And IMO, HEXO ain't no dog.
It's just that I have a sneaky suspicion that most of these pot stocks are gonna start trading sideways for a while and think we may be near the top of that hypothetical range. Hard to say since we just plummeted a long way so we've had no time for it to bounce around a little and establish some reliable resistance and support levels.
We've got a fairly high sell limit in place right now that I seriously doubt it will come close to tomorrow but maybe a couple more half decent days combined with favorable election results next week and a few states voting to pass their MJ referendums will give these beaten down equities a little more sustained momentum into next week.
They're off life support for the moment but they're still a little wobbly...LOL.
Hope you're right, John. Gettin' a little tired averaging down on this puppy. Today was either a dead cat bounce or we got a newborn tiger by the tail.
Anyway, at least it was a Happy Halloween on the ol' OTC today. BOO!
You're exactly right...all a person can do is develop his own individual outlook and establish his own objectives and then trade accordingly.
My own personal outlook (and mine only) is that although some of these pot stocks will eventually turn out to be winners (and a few will likely be BIG winners) the vast majority will ultimately prove to be losers and many of them BIG ones at that. So given that opinion I have been swing trading a short list of them the last coupla months and so far it's been a real hoot. We missed most of the huge runup that began in mid-August but have done okay even while the sector pretty much traded flat for a month and we survived the recent death plunge in relatively good shape so that's encouraging.
My hunch is that we're finally fairly close to a bottom here and these pot stocks will probably start trading mostly flat inside a range for several months...with occasional moves that come from things like earnings and elections and the inevitable M&A news and rumors. Buy & hold longs probably won't make too much money but sideways movement is usually a terrific environment for swing trading.
When it comes to the MJ sector I mostly agree with this guy...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/10/23/1-warren-buffett-quote-for-marijuana-investors-to.aspx
"And what you really should have done in 1905 or so, when you saw what was going to happen with the auto is you should have gone short horses. There were 20 million horses in 1900 and there's about 4 million horses now. So it's easy to figure out the losers, you know the loser is the horse. But the winner was the auto overall. But 2000 companies just about failed, a few merged out and so on."
I don't short but I like to swing...very challenging and a lot of fun. If there's one thing I learned from my online poker playing days (God, I miss that...we should legalize that too while we're at it!) is that it is far better to start small and work your way up as you learn rather than jump into a new game and have your inexperienced head handed to you. And I am also finding out that some of the skills a good poker player needs are the very same ones that you mentioned are necessary to trade well...patience and discipline being two of them. One thing is different, however...you can't bluff the market!
Best of luck to you...I am quite certain that my positions are not nearly as large as yours are but at this early stage I'm focusing a lot more on the % rather than the $ until I have many more trades under my belt and a longer track record to rely on. Anyway, so far so good.
Hooboy, greenie...all these MJ price charts look so bad that according to some technical analysis indicators in about 6 days anybody looking to sell their pot stock is gonna have to pay the buyer to take it! We tried to catch a couple falling knives thinking the bottom might be near and got cut a little...but I suppose we shouldn't complain about a few minor finger lacerations when there are some people out there who just got both hands chopped off.
Brutal. I think we learned one thing the last 7 or 8 trading days...and that is diversification in the pot sector is pretty much a total joke at this stage. Generally speaking, if one skyrockets they all shoot up...and if one plummets they all drop like a rock. Doesn't matter if they are large-cap overvalued Canadian-based pot stocks or small-cap undervalued American-based ones or anything in between...if it's marijuana then odds are it's going up in smoke.
Eventually when the sector matures and real earnings become more important than overhyped pipe dreams then these companies will start to differentiate themselves based on performance but right now you only have to look at how a few are doing on a given day and you'll pretty much already know how the ones you own are probably faring.
Look at this guy, for example...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4209580-bak-portfolio-moving-beyond-canadian-cannabis
He's got almost 2 dozen pot stocks in his precious portfolio and probably thinks having 3% in one pot stock here and 6% in another pot stock there and he's "diversified" enough to be protected. How much you wanna bet when he updates his spreadsheet he's got maybe 2 that are green if he's lucky and all the rest are red...down and down BIG. Even if he did have one big winner one day he's got himself spread out so thin it would get totally washed out in the noise.
Having that many stocks is insane, IMO...if watching 2 dozen quotes at one time hasn't already driven that dude totally bonkers yet he'll get there soon. Not saying putting all your chips on just 1 or 2 is a terrific idea either but there's gotta be a good compromise somewhere in between...maybe half a dozen give or take. Still think CannaRoyalty should be one of those half dozen or so for those thinking longer term...but in this environment right now it's gonna be mighty tough for one to shine while almost all the others are on life support...although MariMed was able to do just that today.
Not to mention we got a bunch of IPOs coming out over the next few weeks so those might siphon off $100 billion or thereabouts (maybe a lot less now!...LOL) that ain't gonna go into some of the existing ones that need an injection bad. The news just keeps getting better and better, don't it???
BTW, in that Midas Letter video I posted to you yesterday on the MPX board between the iAnthus & MPX CEOs he did an interview of a MJ hedge fund manager and he mentioned CannaRoyalty as one of his core holdings. The conversation was pretty interesting and informative so you might wanna check it out sometime when you feel like taking a break from waiting for your pot stocks to come out of their death spiral.
That's exactly how I was thinking of it. If the 0.1673 exchange rate is indeed a firm number then a person is getting roughly a 10% discount off of iAnthus shares at current prices. IOW, you could buy 100 shares of iAnthus today or buy about 600 shares of MPX as a proxy for less and then receive 100 shares of iAnthus early next year (assuming the deal goes through). Essentially iAnthus stock could drop around 10% from current prices and you'd still break even on your investment at swap time. This doesn't include any MPX International stock which I'm guessing will not be worth a whole lot at first but may appreciate over time if Boyes does a good job of building up the spinoff company like he did the original MPX.
I gotta believe at some point that MPX share price will start mirroring iAnthus and begin to approach 1/6 its value if the merger looks imminent.