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Re: IndustryParticipant post# 737

Tuesday, 10/30/2018 8:58:23 PM

Tuesday, October 30, 2018 8:58:23 PM

Post# of 5533
You're exactly right...all a person can do is develop his own individual outlook and establish his own objectives and then trade accordingly.

My own personal outlook (and mine only) is that although some of these pot stocks will eventually turn out to be winners (and a few will likely be BIG winners) the vast majority will ultimately prove to be losers and many of them BIG ones at that. So given that opinion I have been swing trading a short list of them the last coupla months and so far it's been a real hoot. We missed most of the huge runup that began in mid-August but have done okay even while the sector pretty much traded flat for a month and we survived the recent death plunge in relatively good shape so that's encouraging.

My hunch is that we're finally fairly close to a bottom here and these pot stocks will probably start trading mostly flat inside a range for several months...with occasional moves that come from things like earnings and elections and the inevitable M&A news and rumors. Buy & hold longs probably won't make too much money but sideways movement is usually a terrific environment for swing trading.

When it comes to the MJ sector I mostly agree with this guy...

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/10/23/1-warren-buffett-quote-for-marijuana-investors-to.aspx

"And what you really should have done in 1905 or so, when you saw what was going to happen with the auto is you should have gone short horses. There were 20 million horses in 1900 and there's about 4 million horses now. So it's easy to figure out the losers, you know the loser is the horse. But the winner was the auto overall. But 2000 companies just about failed, a few merged out and so on."

I don't short but I like to swing...very challenging and a lot of fun. If there's one thing I learned from my online poker playing days (God, I miss that...we should legalize that too while we're at it!) is that it is far better to start small and work your way up as you learn rather than jump into a new game and have your inexperienced head handed to you. And I am also finding out that some of the skills a good poker player needs are the very same ones that you mentioned are necessary to trade well...patience and discipline being two of them. One thing is different, however...you can't bluff the market!

Best of luck to you...I am quite certain that my positions are not nearly as large as yours are but at this early stage I'm focusing a lot more on the % rather than the $ until I have many more trades under my belt and a longer track record to rely on. Anyway, so far so good.