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Looks like I might have to add a few more players to my Aphria Affair scorecard...
https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/a5dfgx/aphria_set_to_end_longtime_ties_with_law_firm/
Mr. Neufeld, Aphria’s CEO, said “as of today, Stikeman is still our corporate counsel.”
The Aphria special committee hired law firm Lenczner Slaght Royce Smith Griffin LLP as its adviser, these sources said. Lawyers at Lenczner Slaght declined to comment. Lenczner Slaght is a Toronto-based litigation boutique that specializes in complex corporate cases.
Stikeman’s role as Aphria’s legal adviser is complicated by the fact that Stikeman senior partner Curtis Cusinato is Mr. DeFrancesco’s brother-in-law, according to sources with knowledge of the situation. Mr. Cusinato is a merger and acquisitions specialist.
Man, all roads sure do seem to lead straight to DeFCon 5.
Thought Vic might have released his QCM rebuttal by now. Maybe he's having some trouble Photoshopping that shack in Jamaica he bought? That Adobe software can be a little confusing if you don't use it very often.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cannabis-sector-mostly-lower-as-investors-shrug-off-senate-vote-to-legalize-commercial-hemp-2018-12-12
Not much of a bounce in the MJ sector after the Senate passed the Farm Bill with its hemp provision. Maybe Neufeld can provide a little juice? Let's go, Vic...either poop or get off the pot.
Sounds like I'm a lot like you in many respects. I think a relatively small percentage of the MJ stocks will do nicely over time but I'm not smart enough to pick them so I prefer to take short-term profits over a few days to a few weeks when they're there to be had.
I too think the US-based operators are a smarter play than the overvalued Canadian stocks. Won't be long before the Canuck growers will be pumping out at least twice as much weed as the Canadian market can conceivably consume and that can't be good for their share price. The US has potentially bigger markets and companies that have smaller market caps that still have room to grow. Also like CBD more than THC at the moment thus my finally getting into Charlotte's Web after watching it on the radar screen for quite a while.
I've mostly enjoyed swing trading these stocks since we started in early September...it's not as stressful as daytrading but not nearly as boring as long-term buying and holding. Was doing pretty good up until about 3 weeks ago...was up nearly 40% but have since seen that chopped in half...partially because of bad MJ sector performance and partially due to just plain bad trading on my part. Sometimes when you swing trade you swing and miss! But even HOF hitters have bad streaks, right? We had half a dozen trades going at once in mid-October but closed 4 of them out just a day or two before the sector crashed so we survived that plunge in good shape but this recent downturn has proven to be much worse even though pot stocks didn't drop nearly as much as they did in the second half of October.
Think you're maybe being a little pessimistic about Charlotte's Web...I don't really see a huge runup in price before this Farm Bill so I don't see as big a downside if we get hit by some "sell the news" but I suppose we'll find out soon enough. Weakness in the broader markets ain't helping any...I think maybe all hell will break loose sometime in late January if not sooner. Good luck, mx.
Yepper. Every time a person clicks the buy button they're taking on some risk no matter which ticker symbol they have entered into their order. I phreely admit I'm aphraid of Aphria right now.
Pot sector a little blah at the moment with the DJIA up nice. Then again, I haven't really seen all that much correlation between MJ stocks and the broader markets. Hopefully the Farm Bill will give these pot stocks a little boost soon although that's more CBD than THC.
Don't underestimate the ability of "flighty impulse buyers" to pop a stock! We like to swing trade these pot stocks and the last call to Schwab sure took a lot longer than only 3 minutes.
I've heard that this online problem is now only an issue with Schwab and that it's no longer a problem with any other online broker like Ameritrade. Have you tried to buy more CW online lately by any chance?
I'm here for the intrigue as well...it's like a soap opera for men. I've swing traded Aphria a few times and it was one of my favorite pot stocks north of the border but I've since soured on it and am now just watching from the sidelines because how this all eventually plays out could have at least a short to intermediate-term impact on some of our other positions that are currently still open...
https://www.fool.ca/2018/12/07/could-aphrias-tsxapha-massive-fall-spell-curtains-for-all-marijuana-stocks/
Would rather be wrong about Aphria and have our other trades be winners than be right and have them turn into losers as a result.
Not sure this latest Scotiabank vote of support is completely on the up and up...
https://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2018/12/aphria-inc-apha-i-sincerely-hope.html
The plot thickens...gonna need a scorecard soon if this keeps up.
Ball's in Vic's court at the moment.
That could be, soot. But it still doesn't explain why the spikes show up on the daily, weekly and monthly charts but not on ones that have a finer time scale. If there was a big spike sometime during the day then it should show up on one of the seven candlesticks on an hourly chart but they don't. I've sometimes seen big up or down spikes like this before on other OTC pot stocks and using 1-minute charts I can go in there and find out the precise time that it occurred during the day but no dice on Charlotte's Web.
I just wanted John to look at it real quick on stockcharts that he uses to see if he gets the same result that I did using tradingview. I may contact Schwab for Mando and was just trying to collect a little info first. Poor Mando...looks like he needs a long nap and a new return key.
Hopefully ANIA is right and Charlotte's Web will uplist soon once the Farm Bill becomes law. Maybe when they move over to one of the bigger exchanges Schwab will let their customers buy and sell this stock online again. There are a lot of folks who use Schwab and I'm sure when some of them try to buy this stock and instead get a message to call them they just say screw it and move on.
Passing the Farm Bill is just the first step. Odds are things will be pretty choppy for a while and it won't all be smooth sailing...
https://www.naturalproductsinsider.com/regulatory/congress-releases-farm-bill-report-would-end-era-hemp-prohibition
“There will still be the Barney Fifes [i.e., local law enforcement officials targeting local hemp retailers] but if you look at what we’ve been able to do, we’ve gone from 18 Barney Fife states to 4 or 5 of them,” said John Ryan, chief operating officer of Ananda Hemp.
Despite expectations of diminished opposition from the states, the hemp industry still faces a significant hurdle at the federal level. FDA continues to assert CBD can’t be sold in conventional foods or dietary supplements. Its position is tied to clinical drug trials conducted by GW Pharmaceuticals plc, whose CBD medicine, Epidiolex, was approved by FDA in June for treatment of seizures associated with Lennox-Gastaut syndrome (LGS) or Dravet syndrome.
In an article written this month for the National Law Review, attorneys Ian Stewart, James Kloss and Neil Willner of Wilson Elser said the positions taken by the states and the federal government has “created an absurd result.”
“CBD now may be manufactured and distributed in many states with few restrictions, but CBD may be added to food products in many states only if it is derived from marijuana,” the lawyers wrote. “It is difficult to logically reconcile this ‘schizophrenic’ state of the law.”
Industry lawyers and hemp companies have openly contested the agency’s stance on CBD. FDA’s position—expressed in a Q&A and warning letters—has neither been made formal through a rulemaking nor tested in litigation.
Justin Prochnow, a partner in Denver with Greenberg Traurig LLP, cautioned the Farm Bill doesn’t affect FDA’s position whatsoever.
Nonetheless, following passage of the seminal legislation, the lawyer anticipates many companies will roll “the dice” and place products on the U.S. market, testing whether FDA will take more aggressive enforcement action beyond its strategy to date: warning letters.
Could be FUBAR for a while until things shake out.
You do own Charlott'e Wed, no?
No, we're in Charlotte's Web. But if you think Charlotte's Wed is a better stock we'll buy some. I've been on a mini-losing streak lately and we need a winning trade to get back on track.
So far so good on CW...I got high hopes for that one. Now all we need is for Lustig to get off the golf course and back into the office and make ORHOF start going back up again.
That's good...but can you take a look at one of the days that was on your daily chart that showed a huge up spike and do the same hourly chart for any such day?
The reason I ask is that when I looked at the minute and hourly charts of the day that CW hit its all-time high (due to a spike) I saw no such huge spike for any of the candlesticks. How can all the daily, weekly and monthly charts show these big spikes but when you drill down to any minute or hourly chart there are no such spikes? It doesn't add up. Was just wondering if your stockchart software you use agrees with the free tradingview charts I am using.
There were about 8 such days between mid-October and early November...any one you choose will do.
See there? That just shows that once in a blue moon all them old wrinkly white guys in the Senate can actually move fast when they want to. Of course, they may have to take the next 3 months off in order to recuperate from actually having done something for a change.
If pro is the opposite of con, what is the opposite of progress?
Hey, John...can you do me a quick favor sometime if you have a few free minutes? Could you pick any trading day that had a huge upward spike on the CW price chart you posted and look at an hourly chart of that day and see if there are any big wicks associated with any of the hourly candlesticks? Thanks, bud!
Aleafia - I prefer Trulieve, Charlotte's Wed, Curaleaf and CV Sciences
Charlotte's Wed??? Damn, I had just worked up the nerve to ask her out and she goes and gets married!
Farm Bill creating some buzz in the media which shouldn't be terribly surprising...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/everything-you-need-to-know-about-cbd-the-cannabis-elixir-that-doesnt-get-you-high-2018-10-29
This is an older story that MarketWatch first put out in late October but looks like they just dredged back up with the bill now finally moving through legislation.
Don't mind old articles at all if they bring additional attention to the sub-sector and hopefully the stock. Only thing worse than no news is bad news!
I like Hadley a lot, too. Seems to have a good sense of humor as well.
Your concerns about being spread out or having too many brands are not entirely unfounded. These are addressed somewhat in this new article and also by reader comments...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4227302-ianthus-patiently-waiting-mpx-best-class-disclosure
Different business model than Lustig and Origin House has...Origin House is concentrated and focusing mostly on one huge market while MPX/iAnthus is moving into many different big-market states mostly back East and is having to consolidate a mish-mash of brands due to all the different acquisitions that Ford has made while piecemealing a company together through M&A.
Both can be successful if done properly. It pretty much begins and ends with great management.
That's kinda the problem I alluded to...if the SEC announced that they were formally investigating some company then at least investors could decide if they wanted to hold and hope it proved to be a nothing burger or play it safe, get out and see what happens. Then if the SEC said "yep, we looked into this or that company and there's nothing to worry about" then the air would be cleared. But if they do everything under wraps then investors have no advanced warning until the hammer comes down and by then it may too late.
I can see both advantages and disadvantages if they were to be more transparent, however. Just because the SEC is investigating somebody doesn't necessarily mean they are guilty of anything...they're just checking out some smoke to see if there's a fire, is all. They probably look into a lot of stuff and nothing ever comes of it, so they don't wanna create a panic before they even have something tangible or any hard-core proof of corruption or fraud.
Wow, they sliced their Aphria holdings by roughly half.
I think that Horizons has over a billion bucks in total assets so I'm guessing their research department is a little bigger than mine...LOL.
I can tell that you are a connoisseur of promising pot stocks, hawk. Damn, I am a good speller but I have to look up "connoisseur" every single time I use it in a sentence...LOL.
I'm in Flagstaff and not Phoenix so that is a bit of a drive for me. I don't really follow the Coyotes at all but still stream the Penguins games a lot. I've been visiting my elderly father once or twice a year for about a month at a time lately since he's getting way up there in years. I'll probably be in Florida in March/April if these volatile pot stocks I've been trading for him don't kill the poor guy before then.
Hey, maybe you can check out one of the MPX stores when you're in Arizona? The state is still med only and shot down recreational a couple years ago but I recall that it was pretty close so it's likely only a matter of time. That would probably give MPX/iAnthus a nice boost in sales.
Okay, the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (HMMJ) is the biggest pot fund of its type in the world. As of yesterday it looks like Aphria represented 10.5% of their portfolio by weight...
https://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=XTSE:HMMJ®ion=can&culture=en-US&cur=
Their last quarterly allocation announcement was released on September 26th...
https://www.newcannabisventures.com/cannabis-mutual-fund-makes-quarterly-etf-adjustments/
https://www.investopedia.com/news/9-stocks-added-worlds-largest-marijuana-etf/
Which means that their next one will come out in a couple weeks.
I'd keep an eye out for it...if Aphria's share of their portfolio drops significantly that would tell me that either they are possibly deeply concerned by this recent scandal or perhaps they just don't think it's one of the better MJ investments in the near-term and there are better ones to be had. But if it stays about the same or even increases then that would be an indication that these guys believe that QCM's allegations are much ado about nothing and that Aphria is still worth the risk.
BTW, we're back into Origin House as of yesterday. Turned out we paid 1 or 2 cents less per share than when Pop dumped them early last week without me knowing he was gonna do that. Not exactly my idea of an ideal swing trade!
We unfortunately lost a decent chunk of change on MPX when he sold it off, however. I really gotta break him of that buy high-sell low habit of his.
Being a born-and-raised Steelers fan I never cared for the Bears much but I like them a whole lot this year with their new razzle-dazzle offense. Very unChicago-like. Put a whooping on the Rams the other night.
You know why Radio Shack went outta business, right? Their robot that rolled the joints for you had a nasty habit of sneaking off to the closet to smoke them instead of bringing them to you. A once-great company felled by a simple software glitch.
Very cool, A! Maybe we'll actually be able to trade them online after they uplist??? LOL
You guessing NYSE or NASDAQ? Any preference?
"With any luck it'll be passed by the end of next week, but knowing how things go around here it may drag into the week after," said Peterson, who is expected to become chairman of the House agriculture panel in the new Congress.
Perhaps ANIA can help you with your reading comprehension skills? I got stock price charts to review...LOL.
https://brownfieldagnews.com/news/2018-farm-bill-conference-report-signed-sent-to-house-and-senate/
The conference report was signed by the House and Senate Farm Bill conferees and will be considered with a vote in both chambers. It’s not clear when the votes will take place.
They don't know when the votes will even take place but you do!
I'll bet you 10 cybershares of CW it drags into next week. But it doesn't really matter much so not sure why you're making such a fuss over it.
iAnthus is definitely worth spending some of your DD time on if you wanted to diversify into other US operators in other states besides Origin House in California.
I didn't like iAnthus at first because their market cap-to-revenue ratio was way the hell up there compared to other American pot companies. But their proposed merger with MPX changed all that. We just so happened to be in MPX when the news about the merger first came out and benefited from a nice pop in its stock price. Sold it off the next day for a nice gain but after looking into the merger more we got back in...until Dad freaked out last week and dumped everything in a moment of disgust at how the pot stocks and broader markets were acting. He regrets that move now and I may get him back in at some point.
If you do decide to go long on iAnthus you might wanna buy MPX instead and essentially get iAnthus at a discount. MPX shareholders will get 0.1673 shares of iAnthus for every share of MPX they own assuming the deal gets approved by shareholders in January. That means you will get a roughly 10% discount on iAnthus...that amount varies day to day depending on the share price of each company. You can read all about the 2 companies and the merger here...
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_a1966a82c6df83842e537a149171a813/ianthuscapital/db/282/1300/pdf/iAnthus+MPX+Investor+Presentation.pdf
MPX has got to be one of the most under-the-radar pot companies around. They have a small footprint but are doing quite well out here in Arizona as far as sales are concerned. Check out their revenue compared to other MJ companies...
https://www.newcannabisventures.com/37-top-revenue-generating-cannabis-stocks-ranked-as-of-november-29th/
Pretty impressive, no? Hadley Ford is one sharp CEO who is well-connected in the financial world. When the merger is done and iAnthus completes their expansion plans they will have dispensaries/stores in quite a few states...
https://www.newcannabisventures.com/ianthuss-mpx-bioceutical-merger-fuels-growth-and-institutional-interest/
Also you will get 0.1 shares of MPX International for every 1 share of MPX you own, which will be a spinoff of the MPX merger. It probably won't be worth much at first but the current CEO of MPX will head up this new company. Scotty Boyes is a low-key but competent manager so he might be able to build this new company up into something worthwhile.
James West of The Midas Letter has done several interviews of both Hadley & Scotty so if you're still interested after your initial DD you should definitely check those out and watch them. I always like to see how a CEO handles himself before I give him a few bucks.
If forced to choose between Origin House or MPX/iAnthus I would almost certainly go with Lustig but if you want to diversify a little the latter is definitely worth a look, IMO.
The problem with the SEC is I don't believe they typically announce to the public that they are undertaking a formal investigation of this or that company or individuals. They just check it out quietly behind the scenes and if they don't find anything illegal going on we never even know they were looking into somebody in the first place. But if they DO find something bad then the news will often hit like a bolt outta the blue. That would probably keep me up at night if I was heavy long on Aphria.
I also don't know exactly what happens when all these law firms actually file real lawsuits in court or put out press releases that they are investigating this or that company. I suppose they can send investigators to Aphria to request/demand to see records and documents but I imagine that they have to file subpoenas or whatnot to force them, I dunno.
There's likely a lot of legal crap going on behind the scenes right now that none of us have any clue about.
Personally, I don't think it'll ultimately matter much in the long run what Vic and the company come out with tomorrow...it's just another "he said-she said" battle in the war between QCM and Aphria at this point. It's really in the hands of the SEC and all the LLCs now. If the regulators and investigators find something tangible the lawsuits and any SEC action will proceed and we'll find out about it soon enough.
What Vic's rebuttal CAN do is impact near-term Aphria stock price. If they come up with something credible and comprehensive to rebutt QCM's allegations then we could/should see a nice pop in share price as a result. But if it's dicey or they delay then we might see some more downward pressure on the stock.
John posted a coupla MJ ETF charts to me a few days ago on another board and it was vividly apparent how this Aphria Affair impacted the entire sector. Maybe he can post them here again for you guys to see. It will be interesting to keep an eye on how these ETFs reallocate their baskets when the time comes. If they don't decrease their percentage in Aphria then that will tell us they're not terribly troubled by this mess any...but if they cut back significantly on their Aphria holdings that would probably be a sign that they think it's too risky. Not exactly sure when these quarterly adjustments take place but I'm pretty sure they let folks know what their allocations are when they change.
Hey, Penguins @ Blackhawks on NBCSN's Wednesday Night Hockey this week. Since both our two clubs have been stinking up the rink lately we better not bet too much. You can put up 10 shares of your Aphria and I'll wager 10 shares of my Radio Shack.
Bet you didn't know Radio Shack was a marijuana company, huh? That company went to pot before Aphria even existed!
That article was published last week, hence passage of the Farm Bill this week
I don't think so, CB. The article came out last Friday (Dec 7).
"With any luck it'll be passed by the end of next week, but knowing how things go around here it may drag into the week after," said Peterson, who is expected to become chairman of the House agriculture panel in the new Congress.
So from the article's perspective "next week" is now this week and "the week after" would be next week.
Things in DC are moving even slower than usual these days. Rumor has it there are a few "distractions" going on in that town.
Many shorties are nutjobs, IMO, especially with these MJ stocks. I've never shorted a stock in my life and likely never will. Closest I ever came to "shorting" is when I bought some S&P 500 puts a long time ago...unfortunately it was a year or two before the big crash in 2008 so it didn't pan out. Sometimes it's not so good to be a little ahead of the curve, especially when messing around with options that have expiration dates...LOL. I don't even wanna think about how much they woulda been worth if I had timed it a little better.
I also bought some puts at about the same time on Google and got run over bigtime...DUHHH on me.
I've reached my daily limit on posts already so I'm done typing for the day. Guess I'll just shut up and watch these crazy markets and stocks go up and down. I heard that the Farm Bill that includes the hemp provision just got signed off by some committee so if it passes late this week or next maybe that will provide a little much-needed oomph to this beaten down sector.
Have a good one.
Ease up a little, twist. Everybody has a different preferred style of trading and goals, is all. If Gauge likes to swing trade a little what's wrong with that?
I just looked at my spreadsheet of closed trades and I see that we sold some Aphria ourselves on October 15th at $15.42. That's looking pretty damn good at the moment. Some folks just don't like to hold long-term and ride a stock up and down...especially these risky and volatile pot stocks. Each person is a little different and just has to find his own comfort zone.
Aphria is up nicely today...be happy!
Doesn't this kinda stuff usually make a stock tend to go UP?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/origin-house-provides-normal-course-123000855.html
Guess that's why you were shocked...LOL.
This story harkens back to CannaRoyalty's earlier-day roots when they were more of an investor and provider of capital to fledgling pot companies in exchange for a royalty stream or share appreciation.
That Lustig dude made some mighty shrewd moves when it came to those investments...while looking into all these various pot companies he probably concluded "hell, I can run a marijuana company better than most of these guys who are asking for money...I think we'll just transition over to that side of things and do it ourselves".
If Marc builds a pot company as good as he invested in them Origin House got no problems going forward.
Says here that final passage might drag into next week...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/07/final-farm-bill-with-hemp-legalization-could-be-voted-on-next-week.html
At least it seems to be moving along.
Doesn't really look to me like passage of this bill is built into the current price of CW yet...ie, no "buy the rumor" effect pumping the price up. What do you guys think?
LOL...I was just playing around with drawing trendlines on a DJIA chart. Maybe a rebound back to around 25300 in the next couple weeks and then a drop to lower than today. If it breaks 23500 then look out below!
I dunno...Lustig didn't buy any property in Latin America for $200 million recently, did he???
Pot, gold & S&P puts, amigo...
https://www.apmex.com/category/11010/gold-american-eagle-coins
It usually takes economists at least 2 quarters to figure out whenever we've already entered a recession...and "experts" can't even agree if this is the longest bull market in history or not...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/08/29/were-in-the-longest-bull-market-in-history-what-sh.aspx
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-longest-bull-market-in-us-history-2018-04-27
Weathermen on Wall Street! "There's a 70% chance it will rain yesterday."
You know what folks need to cheer them up a little during a nasty recession and a raging bear market?
A big fat doobie. Just sayin'.
DJIA just dropped below 24000, first time since late June when it briefly dipped 3 points below that level. This descending price channel we're in ain't looking too good, John. I think maybe this old bull is about to pass away on us.
Okay thanks, A. I'm not worried about it other than it affects our ability to buy and sell CW quickly...funny that other brokers have the exact same price history but their customers have no problem trading this stock online.
I've also seen these real long wicks on other MJ stocks like Origin House which also is listed on both a Canadian exchange and the OTC as most of them are now, but some of those super long wicks for ORHOF were on the downside IIRC. I always wondered what caused them and you probably just explained it. I thought it mighta been a fumble-fingered dyslexic intern entering wrong numbers...LOL.
I guess that's why whenever you enter a trailing stop or limit orders they warn you that your order may get filled due to an error or some other reason. Fortunately we've never been burned yet but I suppose it's only a matter of time. I typically don't like trailing stops and have only used it just once on OH and fortunately it didn't get executed the day we put it in. As if investing isn't already challenging enough without having BS quotes thrown in for good measure.
1-ounce American Eagle gold coins and a small mountain of S&P 500 put options are starting to look like the best investment in this environment...LOL.
Methinks that bear in my ID photo is starting to wake up and that big guy is mighty hungry after being in hibernation for so long.
Risky or not Aphria sure looks like a better bet than the Black & Gold right now. Best of luck with yours. We don't even have the Penguins to fall back on who are playing just as bad as the broader markets are acting at the moment. Looks like Aphria wants to go up today but is being dragged down by some pretty bearish sentiment that is permeating everything.
Cash may be king soon if this keeps up. Maybe gold if it gets really bad.