Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Do you dislike the idea that TLD was released? If you want to talk about something else, start a new thread instead of trying to change the topic. Repeatedly.
TLD release fully acknowledged by nwbo is not a negative in any way.
Unless you were one of the symantic gymnasts mistakenly claiming otherwise for weeks. Those folks look silly.
Enjoy the up day.
Read the "about" section in last night's nwbo PR.
"This Phase III trial reached data lock and top line data was recently presented."
That's a simple declarative sentence that no amount of semantic gymnastics can distort. 5/10 was TLD release. So states nwbo itself.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/northwest-biotherapeutics-announces-presentations-dcvax-012300937.html
It says "top line data" in this PR from nwbo.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/northwest-biotherapeutics-announces-presentations-dcvax-012300937.html
Look for the line:
"This Phase III trial reached data lock and top line data was recently presented."
"top line data was recently presented."
Straight from the nwbo PR.
nwbo thinks they presented TLD even if folks here make dozens of posts to the contrary.
You're sweeping generalization is certainly wrong for me. I've never said anything in favor of NCVR, although I have noted it is an inappropriate comparator for nwbo due to the different approval path for medical devices.
The point is that it's not just the 6% difference in total resection.
What does the curve look like? Did the 37% in nwbo's non-total resection group have a higher percentage of tumor removed than the 43% in the control group?
Relative to the comparator trials, nwbo had a "healthiest of the sick" population (higher KPS, higher MGMT methylated, higher total resection).
That intent for complete resection resulted in 63% total resection for nwbo versus 57% for the comparator group. See page 19 from the NYAS presentation.
nwbo's data may not be as good as you think.
The characteristics on page 19 are all tilted in nwbo's favor.
The confidence intervals on page 31 are unimpressive. The only one that is clearly positive is versus a single trial (Weller).
Have any of the doctors you track commented on those points?
Thank you for the laugh of the day regarding nwbo stock price being steady for another 3-4 days.
For perspective, nwbo is at similar levels to 6 years ago. And considerably lower than any further back.
What's different?
- In 2015 it was Cognate that was ramping up, and with business from nwbo dropping rather than increasing..
What's not different?
- nwbo longs don't own any part of Advent, just as they did not own Cognate.
LP is building her second successful CDMO, and that work goes forward whether nwbo ever gets an approval or not.
Fill in the Blank.
LP was appointed nwbo CEO in 2007, so using year end price, adjusted for two reverse splits.
When LP was appointed ceo of nwbo, share price was 33.60. Since becoming ceo shares have lost 98%.
That doesn't tell the full story because there is also the opportunity cost of not being invested elsewhere for the last 15 years.
How are you going to quantify damage done to nwbo shareholders?
The defense puts up a 6 month chart of nwbo. The chart shows that the time above 1.00 was a spike of less than two weeks. I think any judge or jury is going to see that as short term speculation rather than durable value that was destroyed.
There are no damages. There is no case. All the anti-Globe tweeting is empty hot air.
LP gets full credit for keeping nwbo alive. For years she has done whatever is necessary to keep cash just above zero. Even at $0.70, there's $700M in market cap.
LP also deserves full blame for the many mistakes that put nwbo in survival mode.
Even if you believe the "nefarious forces" story, which I do not, the best defense would have been full transparency. Have quarterly conference calls. Act like a professional company and keep control of communication.
"Sunlight is the best disinfectant" - Supreme Court Justice Brandeis
That makes zero sense.
A reverse split requires a shareholder vote just like an increase in share authorization. It is not something nwbo management could implement on its own if a different vote failed.
nwbo's data just isn't all that impressive.
That simple statement explains:
- 70 cent stock price
- lack of media interest
- can't get their paper published.
But it's not nearly as much fun as a massive conspiracy theory:
- evil hedge funds
- evil market makers
- billions of shares naked shorted (despite any evidence whatsoever)
- big pharma trying to squash nwbo
- big pharms trying to buy nwbo cheap
- wolfpack
Page 31 is the bear argument no long wants to touch - the confidence intervals around the hazard ratios show that the nwbo data just isn't that good.
Then there are the characteristics advantages shown on page 19:
* More high KPS scores for nwbo trial
* More MGMT methylated (39 vs 32)
* More total resection (59 vs 54)
I'll let others speculate about why this is the case.
Followed by: "I'm being flip. But expecting it."
nwbo PR'd the NYAS event in advance.
https://nwbio.com/presentation-about-phase-3-trial-of-dcvax-l-for-glioblastoma/
To claim that it was not an official company release is fiction, despite the attempt at justification via semantic gymnastics.
Let's consider a few details in the presentation. https://virtualtrials.org/dcvax/dcvax.pdf
Page 19 is titled "External Controls for nGBM".
* KPS > 90 is tilted in favor of nwbo by 69 to 64
* Methylated is tilted in favor of nwbo by 39 to 32
* Complete Resection is tilted in favor of nwbo by 63 to 57
All of those Prognostic Factors correlate with better outcomes, so the external control comparison is not apples to apples.
This shows up later in the presentation on page 31 in the confidence intervals around hazard ratios. The only case where the entire confidence range is cleary different from 1 is "Significant Residual Disease", which is a single trial comparison against Weller, the only paper to report that item.
You don't need to guess if you read the 10-K. Under Subsequent Events:
In total, the Company received $8.3 million from exercises of warrants and issuance of common stock between April 1, 2022 and May 6, 2022.
The paid Rago advert is worthless crap that has been stickied for 3 years. Unless you want to review how much he got wrong.
10-Q with results through 3/31/22 was out earlier today, a bit lost in the other news.
Revenues: $403k. Predictions of significant Specials revenue were wrong.
Quarter end cash: $7m, down from $15m at year end.
Cash used in Q1: $13m
Cash raised since quarter end (Subsequent Events): $8m
Current liabilities: $32m (excluding non-cash warrant liability)
Long term notes payable: $16m
10-Q link
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000141057822001218/nwbo-20220331x10q.htm
Too much to wade through to see if already posted.
I have never defended nvcr. No idea why you made that up.
Other than that, thank you for a responsive answer.
Hypothetically, let's say NVCR fails completely and the device is pulled from the market.
Devices and biologics are still different approval paths. Would it make any difference for nwbo?
1 month = up 28%
1 year = down 39%.
5 years = up 400%
10 years = down 73%
with nwbo's volatile history it's easy to cherry pick a date range to fit your narrative.
That seven years is almost as long as nwbo bulls have been promising TLD any day now.
It's hardly far flung to think LP is focused on developing Advent when we've already seen the exact scenario with nwbo, Cognate, Toucan.
Funneling money from nwbo to Advent is out in the open. Not secret. Just read the financials.
You're the one suggesting this is criminal rather than merely highly unethical.
Completely wrong, at least in my case, but thank you for your contribution.
Correct. Last year the proxy was dated 4/16/21 for ASM on 5/18/21.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000110465921051466/tm212568-1_def14a.htm
Warrants are not the only need for common shares.
Don't forget 266m options.
nwbo issues stock for cash every year.
nwbo has converted debt to stock each of the last two years.
You're the only person on this thread bringing up price, which you did in your first reply and again in the second post. That is plain for anyone to see.
nwbo needs money now, with or without TLD. Given that we're 17 months after data lock, the most likely scenario is without TLD, even if you don't like that scenario.
This isn't about price, which you surely know.
This is about whether or not nwbo has sufficient shares to operate. Right now they do not. If all derivatives were exercised they would be more than 200m shares over the current 1.2B authorization. That is a simple problem to rectify.
There is no reason to associate share authorization with TLD other than wishful thinking.
The last share nwbo common authorization increase was 450m to 1.2B in 2018. Going from 1.2B to 2.4B is a smaller percentage increase.
Powers will get the votes with or without TLD, so there is no reason to believe the vote requires news beforehand.
Last year proxy came out 4/16/2021. That could be the next news. What I expect:
Routine business:
- vote on Class III directors; Powers and Malik
- advisory vote on compensation.
- vote to approve auditor.
There should be a proposal in increase authorization for common shares. This is not some sort of negative, but necessary to run the business. My thought is to double from 1.2B to 2.4B so they're good for a while.
The only other business included in any of the last 5 proxies was options awards. That seems unlikely in light of the recent lawsuit.
Perhaps Shakespeare.
What we've seen so far: "A Comedy of Errors"
What skeptics think: "Much Ado About Nothing"
What longs hope for: "All's Well That Ends Well"
The nwbo "change in control" provisions seem normal enough. In event of a deal, vesting accelerates.
"(c) Corporate Transaction. In the event of a Corporate Transaction, vesting of all Awards, and the time at which such Awards may be exercised, will be accelerated in full to a date at least one business day prior to the effective time of such Corporate Transaction (contingent upon the effectiveness of the Corporate Transaction). If there is a Corporate Transaction and any Award is not exercised, such Award will continue to remain outstanding per its terms except that in lieu of being exercisable forSecurities of the Company, it will be exercisable for the consideration which would have been received in the Corporate Transaction had it been exercised for such Securities before the Corporate Transaction took place."
Since the latest plan was dated May, 2020, I think you safely forget your idea about a near term transaction.
The amendment that seems most concerning is Linda and Les keep extending their expiration date by the same amount of time as the suspension. They've found a way to effectively give themselves infinite duration options and warrants.
They're tight on share authorization due to their own management, and have found a way to spin that problem to their advantage. Evil genius!
Yes, and before that you wrote:
($3.8 million to exercise)
(11.3 million to exercise)
($6.5 million to exercise)
($9.0 million to exercise)
all of which implies Linda Powers putting her own cash into nwbo, something we all know she does not do. Unless you count loans she negotiates with herself at very favorable terms, triggered her own penalty interest clause, received more derivatives, etc.
I take no issue with your text about what happens to LP's derivatives if nwbo is sold.
You can actually read the link you found with the search engine?
Sponsor: Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center
Merck is only listed as a collaborator, which basically means they supply the Keytruda, which sounds exactly like what I posted.