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Seriously?
nwbo has dragged out a trial for over 15 years. Haven't treated a new trial patient in over 6 years. And you're worried about positive TLD providing false hope?
If they actually have wildly positive TLD, wouldn't publicity of that lead to treating more folks via Compassionate Use? Seems like an improvement over treating no one at all.
Please give this a re-think as you have reached a truly bizarre conclusion.
For a company that has added 50m in less than 6 months, that is a quiet period even if non-zero.
Your original point is still nonsense.
July 3, 2021 - August 5, 2021 - basically flat at 870m shares out.
Not long ago at all.
So you choose to ignore the 50m share increase in nwbo shares oustanding since 9/30, and focus on no change for 3 weeks?
Stunning illogic.
Or perhaps the price is being held up in order to transfer shares from warrant holders to retail?
Ridiculous comment to factually correct post.
In nwbo land there is always time for more multi-month processes.
A lot of folks here seem to think that using historical comparison makes things easier. Perhaps not. nwbo has not done this before. There are no consultants available who have done it successfully. It's a lot harder to blaze a new trail than to follow a well marked path.
Some of your observations are why traditional quant factors fail in biotech.
Consider a high profile small biotech with a few analysts covering it. Their P1 is successful, so on to P2. While this is unambiguously good news, the estimate revision factor will be negative instead of positive.
Revenues are still many years away. Expenses for FY1 and FY2 will ramp up. So current and next year earnings will be more negative.
@Kab, thank you for the thoughtful reply. You're the only person who responded to what I actually wrote.
I never said anything about LP not wanting DCVax approved.
I said nothing about LP wanting to tank the stock price.
Not at all.
I believe that true alignment of interests requires more than simply two parties wanting the stock to rise. Cost basis and downside risk matter as well.
No. You're wrong.
Aligned interests would mean that Powers gains and loses the same percentage as nwbo longs.
She can gain the same percentage, but has downside protection that nwbo longs lack.
Yes, she very much wants nwbo to succeed, but does not go to zero if it fails.
That actually understates Powers' position.
In addition to 29m shares, she has another 39 million warrants and 39 million options that were excluded on the latest proxy. Compare the 2021 proxy to the 2020 proxy to see the details.
She gave all of that to herself.
All facts.
Linda Powers did grant herself her warrants and shares.
Linda Powers did benefit from Cognate/Toucan. nwbo longs did not.
Linda Powers controls Advent via Toucan.
Once again, all facts. But I understand your need to rationalize otherwise on a day where your stock tanked so badly.
If nwbo fails, Linda Powers has Advent as a lucrative plan B. nwbo longs would get nothing but a tax loss.
Plus she has already made tens of millions via Toucan/Cognate. nwbo has been an incredibly profitable venture for LP even if nwbo stock goes to zero.
You paid for any stock you own. LP granted her stock and warrants to herself.
She is not aligned with nwbo longs and never has been.
I picture nwbo shareholders celebrating Festivus - especially the "airing of grievances".
This year shareholders get their lump of coal in a forest green nwbo tote bag.
Totally logical implication.
People exercising warrants are recognizing profits rather than losses, so wash sales regulations do not apply.
Cognate was sold for $875 million without a successful nwbo.
04/02/2019 nwbo 10-Q language:
We contract out the manufacturing of our DCVax products to Cognate BioServices for the U.S. and Canada, and to Advent BioServices (formerly Cognate U.K.) for Europe.
03/16/2020 nwbo 10-Q language:
We contract out the manufacturing of our DCVax products to Cognate BioServices for the U.S. and Canada, and to Advent BioServices for Europe
03/31/2021 nwbo 10-Q language:
We rely upon specialized contract manufacturers, operating in specialized GMP (clean room) manufacturing facilities, to produce all of our DCVax products. We have worked with several such manufacturers, in several different locations, during various periods of our clinical trials and our compassionate treatment programs, including Advent BioServices, Cognate BioServices and the Fraunhofer Institute.
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To me that reads that Cognate was a current relationship in 2019 and 2020, and no longer current as of March 2021. Although I'm sure someone will torture the language to spin it otherwise.
From Dave Innes:
This may have already been discussed, but I'm not reading 3-4 days of posts to find out.
The PR said 15m financing. The 8-K says 15m net proceeds. Both say 10% OID.
Dave confirmed 15m received, so the OID implies that the face value of the new debt is 16.67m.
Not sure that's really what is going on.
If nwbo has results in hand, which is certainly possible, they may be restricted on a straight equity issuance. They also are fairly tight on Shares Authorized.
At the time Cognate was still controlled by Toucan, so both nwbo and Cognate were controlled by Linda Powers. So it is not valid for you to dismiss this as not nwbo.
@Ike, I agree with most of what you wrote. You have all the pieces, but let's put it all together.
Wrong dates v vague dates v no info is not the root issue, although you did touch on the real issue - lawyers running a biotech firm.
nwbo management has never done any of this before. The reason they keep missing dates is that they constantly encounter new multi-month processes. They didn't know most of them existed, so they are starting from scratch solving each problem.
It all goes back to Linda Powers' amazingly arrogant statement about Big Pharma only bringing a checkbook. No, they would have brought incredibly valuable expertise with data, regulators, and submissions.
This isn't Linda Powers with a master plan. This is Linda Powers stumbling from one obstacle to the next because she has never followed this path.
Daily data reflects market maker activity, not actual end user short selling. Look at data for a few other stocks and you will find that 50% is not an outlier number.
Real short interest is posted twice monthly by FINRA.
https://otce.finra.org/otce/equityShortInterest
If you made exactly the same statement substituting "shorts" for "longs", do you understand that it would be equally valid?
Linda Powers could become be the Bag Lady of Biotech (BLOB).
Exercise 1000 warrants for cash and I bet Les will ship your certificate in one of the green nwbo tote bags.
Of all the hundreds of bread crumbs that folks have cited as portents of imminent nwbo TLD over the years, the souvenir tote bag is the silliest.
You are way underestimating the importance of the nwbo tote bags. This is the most important breadcrumb ever!
If they had tote bags at SNO, it might foretell nwbo keychains and nwbo thumb drives being given out from a really large booth at ASCO 2022!!!
Makes me wonder why Rago is writing about penny stocks like nwbo instead of practicing medicine or doing research.
Don't forget the most important part - the disclosure section at the end that shows Rago was paid to write positively on nwbo.
Carlo Rago, PhD owns Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) Common Stock. In addition, Dr. Rago serves as a Consultant to District 2 Capital and Bigger Capital. Dr. Rago’s compensation at District 2 Capital and Bigger Capital depends on the performance of the securities in their portfolios. District 2 Capital and Bigger Capital own both Common Stock and Warrants of NWBO. This review is based solely on publicly available information and does not represent medical or investment advice in any way.
Exactly. Simple stuff. No accusation. No reason for anyone to bloviate about anything criminal.
Look up the elements of securities fraud as a crime.
Who is relying on the information? Where is the economic loss? Who is the victim?
I see it implying lying and deception, but no accusation of fraud. Hence my mention that Bigger has no duty to any reader.
Why would you bring up fraud? That was not mentioned in the post to which you replied.
Bigger does not owe any duty to nwbo shareholders, shorts, management, twitter followers, or anyone else. He is just "talking his book" like a lot of investors. Caveat emptor.
More like Advent is Toucan's Plan A following the Cognate blueprint. If nwbo succeeds, that's a cherry on top of Linda Powers' sundae.
In reading a 10-K or 10-Q I focus on things that are facts rather than guesses or extrapolation, information that is new, and items that are relevant for investment purposes.
If there is an area where the financial accounting is somewhat arcane (ex: handling of warrant liability), I'll try to explain a bit.