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That didn’t look like the period they were reporting on.
That’s great to know. Why three less days than others? Closed that week?
up 25% in flower sales in a week 2800ish to 3500ish?!Wow. Gaining rapidly on Trulieve.
Trulieve dropped in medical mg and in smokeable and Cura and Surterra continued to gain. Liberty gained in smokeable too. Competition heating up in FL.
Disappointing that our best PR today was from our top competition CEO of Trulieve, Kim Rivers. From twitter:
Kim Rivers @rivers_kim
"Shoutout to $LHS @LibertyHSInc for great earnings! ?? Florida cannabis continues to lead the way! #ironsharpensiron"
Shoutout to $LHS @LibertyHSInc for great earnings! 🙌 Florida cannabis continues to lead the way! #ironsharpensiron
— Kim Rivers (@rivers_kim) January 30, 2020
Great! Congrats longs - let’s have some fun from here.
Earnings links (but nothing on SEDAR as of 5:50pm)
LHSIF on twitter
Correction: $LHS $LHSIF earnings will release today, Wednesday, 1.29.20, after market close.
— AYR Florida (@ayrflorida) January 29, 2020
We apologize for the confusion.
Beauty from Liberty twitter: "Correction: $LHS $LHSIF earnings will release today, Wednesday, 1.29.30, after market close. We apologize for the confusion."
The next comment was you mean "1.29.20" and Liberty writes back, "Yes, 1.29.20 Thank you."
They need to up their IR and social media game just a bit...
I am hoping for news about buying strategic, revenue producing assets from MedMen's deathbed at a steep discount that will get us into new states or deepen our footprint in existing ones... go TCNNF
It feels like the SP is discounted for the new shares now but still may have excuses to slide if corona virus keeps scaring people into next week.
When it settles down in a week or two, APHA much healthier and able to grow even more rapidly. I love the move despite the short term SP kick in the shins.
(BTW - someone please do some quick research and prove how broken coast is the cure for corona virus... that would help too.)
Agreed. My shares are set and I like where APHA is heading. Will be interesting to watch how it is digested. I like interim removed from Simon as well. Takes away some mild uncertainty.
Lower guidance may rule the narrative here - the headline Dow report on etrade says this. Feeding the short narrative still.
"The company said it now expects revenue of $575 million Canadian dollars ($440 million) to C$625 million. It had previously guided for revenue of C$650 million to C$700 million.
It also lowered its expectation for adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization to C$35 million to C$42 million. It had previously guided for C$88 million to C$95 million."
Premarket looks down -3% - maybe a dip and rip day? Hard to see this report leading to driving this down for long.
I like the report as well. I hope we are past the point where shorts control the SP so much that they can pick on a few semi-negative notes in this strong and growing song.
Read TRUL response to short attack. Awesome. So factual and thorough. Love it. https://investors.trulieve.com/static-files/5b29689e-a798-4a10-aa1f-64e3b39f264d
These same law firms follow (or partner with?) short seller reports. I have seen the same firms pop up in cannabis lawsuits the past two years against CVSI and APHA after short attacks. They gradually post their notices of accepting claims over a couple of weeks and then come back with reminders of their deadlines some 2-3 months from now as well.
Yep you were right. I don’t see this having much staying power tho.
Guesses on closing price? Its $10.50 US just before 3pm. I say $11.20 for $2 reversal off low of the day...
Stifel GMP response to attack below; and PI Financial just came out with one as well. Short report ripped twice now by analysts. Lets reply Kim Rivers and TCNNF...
https://twitter.com/BettingBruiser/status/1206977934671667200/photo/1
Trulieve value - what the shorts really want is forward PE 3.5 to 3?
TRUL Valuation Musing: At $11.90 SP with estimated 2020 earnings (my est of 2020 earnings at $2.90/share (.65c, 70c, 75c, 80c) with 110mil fully diluted shares), 2020 Forward PE estimate is around 4 or 5. That seems like a very good value. And if tax loss, year end and share release pressure gets this down to $10ish, we'd be at a 3.5 forward PE for a dominant company in a state that could go legal in 2020. And if (like in Aug) the unlock drives this to under $9, forward PE could sneak under 3?
Wow 11,495 served on Black Friday alone. That is worth a bold. These relatively small stores averaging nearly 300 people each that day and revenue probably close to $3 million one one day.
RogJr- The most customers served in a day was Black Friday- Nov 29. That is quite a Black Friday! What is the average sale for a customer in a store? I thought I read around $250 somewhere? Would that be $2.8 mil rev in one day? 287 customers average per 40 stores that were operating that day. Holychit. Go Trulieve
Funman - good analysis of Trul and GTI - I am liking the approach of both. GTI seems to be scaling with a reasonable eye costs - but when will they project net profitable? I like the 13 analyst thing - that caught my eye - more potential for institutional money? Trul is looking to expand via acqusition accd to their conf call. They are well positioned with cash to buy companies on really good terms and only accretive to earnings. Hinted may happen before Dec 31. Fla domination for Trul is a huge advantage as well - over 50% of the market. 240mil annual rev and 1% market penetration overall there and 2020 ballot initiative to go full rec with 30 million visitors per year. Its fun to be in both and to see best of class mso separate.
Snap - I would add they were very positive about CT going full recreational soon- I found that interesting; The Healing Corner (soon to be rebranded trulieve) serves 16% of all medical MJ in CT already. I think this is another low-key and smart step that will be adding soon.
This a tremendous conf call - very shareholder friendly, very conservative on FY19 projections (we will crush the high end) and FY20 - very conservative and called out as such by an analyst, very focused on profitable moves and countering rapid money burning expansion, very well positioned with cash for M&A for cheap assets of companies that are working well. They have many companies reaching out to partner, so Trul can set the terms. They hinted at moves before end of the calendar year too. How refreshing - all canadian investment, head south... its nicer down there!
I just read every word of the discussion. You get a sense of how serious and thoughtful this company is. There are so many regulations and various hoops - their approach of focusing on net revenue, brand building, customer loyalty and dominating key FL market is brilliant - I can only imagine the complexities and costs of the MSO trying to open and regulate across 13-15 states at once. My favorite line "It is Trulieve’s goal to create raving fans who are loyal to the Trulieve brand and in return to provide these
patients a superior level of customer service and product selection"
HoldHigh- congrats! 7 handle is you call - so glad you were closer to right.
Fantastic! Just walked out of a meeting to see this. Awesome news.
Or perhaps more likely than people trading on inside info that you are suggesting is that some people were thrilled with 12% gain Friday (and 30-40% since late Aug) and took some off as nice gains?
HoldHigh- I hope you are right but I think weed investors are often overly optimistic. We know the good news you point out with patient growth etc, but we don’t know the internal challenges that occurred during the quarter and effect of other issues like vape. They usually don’t PR these. So I would rather be cautious and surprised happily on the upside.
The newsletter from New CannabisVentures cites a research firm Sentio at $66 mil. “According to Sentieo, analysts project Trulieve (CSE: TRUL) (OTC: TCNNF) to report revenue of $66 million, which would represent 14% growth from the prior quarter.” I’d love that number esp if it showed handling challenges, building out faster than previous quarter and keeping margins healthy. https://www.newcannabisventures.com/cannabis-earnings-season-kickoff-reveals-mixed-trends/
Thoughts on earnings:
end of Q4- 26 locations open and $14.6 mil rev
end of Q1 - 28 locations open and $44.4 mil and smokeable flower just started; delivery growing;
end of Q2 - 30 locations, full Q of smokeable $57.9; delivery growing rapidly and ecommerce growing fastest;
End of Q3 - 35 locations open by end of Sept.
Taking into account ecommerce and delivery growth sounding like it was accelerating at end of Q2, and possibly a disruption on available flower in Aug/Sept when they changed the COO, discounting everything else CT etc, I am hoping for over $63 mil in rev in Q3 and ok if margins come in somewhat considering rate of store opening and staff growth. Also wouldn't be surprised if we are in high 60s.
Thoughts?
HoldHigh - agree on all of your points, and all were true in August as well, and we dropped. If the paper is cost basis of $.05, very tempting to cash in a 200x-300x investment. This cashing would not be so pronounced on a real exchange. SammyJ is a good follow on Twitter for MJ research - this thread in August was important:
B8) TRUL's Aug. 13th fins show only ~184k shares since unlock date potentially being converted. But on Aug. 12th, three insiders listed on SEDI ceased to be so, meaning they can now sell shares without reporting. There are 11 people/cos. listed on SEDI who are no longer insiders. pic.twitter.com/PLIAULMi8z
— Sammy J (@sammyj_19) August 20, 2019
For those calling for $8, I'd like some explanation of the thesis. Seriously, I agree it could and I have been surprised. But I am curious if this earnings will start to show the separation between other MJs and therefore sustain the gains.
On the other hand, I think from our rough ride of cheap paper selling in August when we went mid-7's we may encounter a strong downdraft like that in January? or at least some downward pressure if not $8s. Hopefully we will be in the 13s and all moan over dropping into the 10s...
And then the rec ballot measure will pass its number in FL and Safe Act will pass, and late 2020 we will laugh about these minor issues... TRUL.
Sure - I am not an expert, but I learned that on these OTC board over the past year. Others who may know more can explain. Go Trul
After hours OTC are T-Trades - they reflect a trade during the day that did not get entered. Not an issue or reflection on closing price. See - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/formt.asp
Go TRUL - nice contrast to the bloody MJ sector. Feels so much better than the cheap paper days in August.
Grabbed more too. I’ll have to thank Fast and Erpy a couple years from now when I look at the value of those 5.90s. Honestly - today helped get my average down, but I am down more in VFF than any MJ because I believe the story and have been investing a lot here. Long way to get back the 30% I am under still. Call Options for next summer are pretty cheap as well.
I sense a dip and rip set up here. Panic selling by those who only read the headline, but smart money will know they can get a well run profitable company at the cheap later today and Monday and buy lots of it. This is my #2 behind TRUL who reports on Monday and should provide some of the profit and growth optimism many of us are investing here for.