Nice recap JTFM. Yes the call was pretty good, a few more new details came out as your recap states. One other thing that came out is that Corti sells for a 23.5% discount to Acthar, and both Co's raised their prices 3% this year. If I needed that drug that type of discount would make me want to switch. Nikhil was still very guarded on his comments especially on pipeline and the 1ml vile for Corti. He also made a comment after one of the questions, something like; "I have to look around the room to see if anyone from Mallinckrodt is here" sort of joking, but not really IMO. I do believe they will be doing a rare disease deal Very soon.
Agree JTFM, my take away from the conference is, that they are moving on M&A and it should be fairly soon. Nikhil didn't answer the One question he got very well.
By not talking about their pipeline and being being very vague on their guidance, and no attempt to correct it during the presentation, it seems like they are trying to suppress the SP. BTW they have done a good job of it, over the last 2 weeks!
They are projecting demand issues on "Certain" drugs mainly from the branded drug area, some from generic area as well. So that leads to projected down turn on a Q to Q basics. Taking ANI's new guidance numbers, at the High end (cause they under project their numbers consistently) the numbers project a Q4 Decline; in Revenue to $123.M, Non Gaap EPS to be .84, But Corti numbers should go Up to 36.7M.
Huge Market over reaction IMO! If I didn't have such a low CB I would buy now, if it dips in the 40.'s I might.
BB Yes I understand that Chad still has 333K and Sammy still has over 1.2M shares. But both have sold over $3M worth of stock in the last 6 weeks. Just doesn't make sense to me to sell when they did, UNLESS they had some immediate need they needed to cover. Hope that's it. As the old quote goes, "many reasons to sell, but only one reason to Buy." I was thinking ANI would beat and raise tomorrow until I started thinking about this. We'll see tomorrow.
I am now kinda worried about this ER. With all the recent selling by Sammy and Chad before this ER But after the end of the qtr, it does not make sense to sell in July if they know they will report a great qtr and up guidance in August? Thoughts on tomorrow?
The COO Sammy Just sold about 40K shares in the $51.00 range over the last couple of days from his personal account. He still has 7400 shares in his personal account. The SEC From 4 also lists he has 1,332,620 shares held by Esjay LLC. For some reason I couldn't forward the link. I guess he needed some pocket change.
Blast from the past for all the old BioSante investors. Mr Stephen Simes has joined the BOD at CytoDyn Inc. I wasn't in BioSante back then. Any thoughts about him?
Nice bump this AM with their PR for release of Dexamethasone. A quick look on the web and it looks like there 6 other Companies that mfg Dexamethasone in the US and 9 more world wide.
Thanks for the article. I like this line as well.
“Less than 10 percent of patients who could benefit from this therapy were benefited from it,” he noted. There may even be future indications that the drug could prove useful for, he said."
Art had talked about expanding the customer base for Corti. That was always the wild card that should come, to some degree with the large price reduction for the drug. Hopefully we get some comments on volume increases as well as forecasted revenue for the year, in the next CC.
JTFM, You maybe right about ANI trying to take advantage of their opportunities in Corti. As Elliot Wilbur alluded to in his second question about formulary placement;
"I mean, we're seeing Cortrophin placed on Tier 3 with prior authorization required similar to Acthar. And then we've seen it all the way down to where it's actually bumped Acthar from formulary altogether. Or where the payers are requiring step-through therapy with Cortrophin before patients can eventually get on Acthar, assuming that they do, which, obviously, is quite favorable for you guys."
Elliot obviously did his homework on Corti placement and coverage after launch. The same things that their competition already knows as well.
I was wondering why they made the statement about SG & A for Corti in 22 being between 42-45M. I would think even in their initial launch year they would feel they could at least double this number with revenue. If they did that 85-90M for 22, that would beat consensus revenue for the year by 45M at the low end of their guidance. What would that type of guidance do for the SP?