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Silvr, Thanks for the post. I am not a lawyer, but one thing seems Very odd to me; the lawyers for both the plaintiff, Michael J Farnan and the defendant, Kelly E Farnan have the same last name? Both for from law firms from Wilmington DE.
Thanks for the reply and feedback. Looking at the last three analysts all had Strong Buy recommendations on Alimera before Ani's buy offer.
I think you are right they made a good pick (at the right time) and a good fit with their Rare disease business. It was worth the wait.
Thanks JTFM, who was the analyst that stated that and do you have link?
Silvr, Just listened to the call and was going to look it up on the 10Q and you already posted it... Thanks.
I thoughts exactly about GC claims! These lawyers tell the management what they want to hear, "We can get
you even more money for damages etc etc" In the mean time They line their pockets with more and more fees.
Good call overall but Nikhil is just way conservative! I believe they will raise full year guidance on the next call,
he had a hard time to justify to analysts why they didn't raise it now.
Interesting, I wonder if this would get them off the hook for the fines for delaying release of the results?
JTFM, Yes I know he was not talking about "potential" peak market for Corti, he was comparing it to past peak patient counts in 2017. I agree you, with all the work they are doing to educate and re-educate the payers, doctors and patients about ACTH, hopefully they can blow past that 2017 peak, in a few years.
Nikhil should be a golfer he is such a sandbagger! The 24 guidance numbers just seemed way to low to me. I had to re-read the EC transcript. He is calling for 520-542M in revenue for 2024, with Corti Rev of 170-180M (not including any new indications ie gouty arthritis), Generics revenue to grow high single to low double digits growth.
In 2023 their Rev was 486.8M, Corti Rev. 112M, Generics 269.4M, Branded products, royalties and other Rev. 105.3M. Using Nikhil's Conservative guidance,
Corti will be up 58M to 68M, Generics should be up 24.2M--32.3M using 9% low and 12% high side of guidance. They didn't give guidance on Branded products and royalties, assume this stays the same at 105.3M YoY. If that's the case, that brings us to 569-587M for 2024 revenue, that also doesn't include any new generics or new Corti indications. So unless the Branded drug and Royalties and other has a major crash this year, we should see a least a couple more Beat and Raise ER's coming this year! Btw how is the sale of the Oakville plant, I think 13M USD in Q1, accounted for?
Overall I think Nikhil was little nervous, maybe because he had a little audience.
From 10K Samy is authorized to sell up to 400000 more shares between 3/4/24 and 11/29/24. He sold more a couple of days ago.
I listened to Nikhil's presentation today the Leerink Partners Conference. Overall mainly a rehash from the earnings call, but did pick up few tidbits that I haven't heard or read. One interesting comment that I haven't heard before in the same context; "ACTH total patients in 2017 at the peak is Now down ~ 50% from that time". They do continue to grow the market since their Corti launch. Another tidbit, the 1ml vile of Cory for Gouty flare ups retails at almost $7000. per vile! How big is that potential market? Overall i think Nik
Another upgrade.
ANI Pharmaceuticals price target raised to $83 from $73 at H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on ANI Pharmaceuticals to $83 from $73 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the Q4 beat. The firm says the company has momentum across its rare disease and generics units.
JTFM Another beat and Raise, great qtr and year. Agree, they will keep adding to full year guide as we move throughout the year. I still project ~ 575M for 2024.
R & D expenses increased in 23 to ~ 9M, i think he said and will grow more in 24 to support generics. Looking at multiple targets for M & A this year. I can't understand why he can't give more detail on the 1ml vile for gouty arthritis. He says he doesn't want to give out any competitive information, But They are the only
supplier approved for this indication! Doesn't make sense.
Silvr, Yes good news about Oakville, will no longer be a drain on earnings. Should bode well for Q1 guide, even though it's a one time number.
JTFM, Thanks for the detailed follow up. I believe they will end up 2024 at ~575M revenue after a couple of ER day upgrades along the way, IMO.
Agree the Revenue estimates for 2024 are low. Just listened to Nikhil's latest chat with Guggenheim, nothing new really except he may have signaled that the M & A may be a little further out than I anticipated. My thought, maybe a delay in current negotiations, or a target wanted too much for their business. He says now "a deal sometime in 24" He doesn't want to overpay.
Interesting i was just looking at job openings also, I think there are a total of 37 openings, including Acct Execs. One was for Associate Dir Marketing, listed under job roll was this; Associate Director / Director, Marketing will be responsible for our efforts launching into the Ophthalmology market and either the Rheumatology or Neurology market, depending on skill set and interest. This position is a unique opportunity for any marketing leader looking to break new ground as we continue to build the marketing function at ANI.
Corti launching for Ophthalmology? I don't believe I have heard them mention this before. Have you?
Thanks for the post JTFM. The percentage numbers listed by each Company name, are they the percent Samy owns?
Silvr, I was thinking the same thing. JTFM I don't think I have ever read an analyst even mention female testosterone before, have you?
Nice find. Thanks Silvr.
Silvr, thanks for info. I assume the royalty % were not disclosed when the agreement was signed?
Thanks for the update Silvr. I was looking for more info on the GC/ANI deal and couldn't find it. Do you know what % does ANI have in GC?
Nice recap JTFM. Yes the call was pretty good, a few more new details came out as your recap states. One other thing that came out is that Corti sells for a 23.5% discount to Acthar, and both Co's raised their prices 3% this year. If I needed that drug that type of discount would make me want to switch. Nikhil was still very guarded on his comments especially on pipeline and the 1ml vile for Corti. He also made a comment after one of the questions, something like; "I have to look around the room to see if anyone from Mallinckrodt is here" sort of joking, but not really IMO. I do believe they will be doing a rare disease deal Very soon.
JTFM My thought as well. Really the only reason I can think of if it was submitted on time.
Hope you are right for all of us.
Agree JTFM, my take away from the conference is, that they are moving on M&A and it should be fairly soon. Nikhil didn't answer the One question he got very well.
By not talking about their pipeline and being being very vague on their guidance, and no attempt to correct it during the presentation, it seems like they are trying to suppress the SP. BTW they have done a good job of it, over the last 2 weeks!
They are projecting demand issues on "Certain" drugs mainly from the branded drug area, some from generic area as well. So that leads to projected down turn on a Q to Q basics. Taking ANI's new guidance numbers, at the High end (cause they under project their numbers consistently) the numbers project a Q4 Decline; in Revenue to $123.M, Non Gaap EPS to be .84, But Corti numbers should go Up to 36.7M.
Huge Market over reaction IMO! If I didn't have such a low CB I would buy now, if it dips in the 40.'s I might.
JTFM, I think you are right about that. Also nice article on SA released yesterday, Thanks for the research and posting.
JTFM. Thanks again for all your digging as always. Agree I think they would want to make the biggest splash they could, when they announce.
Silvr, Nice find, and couldn't agree more. Hope ABBV is the partner.
Nice find JTFM, Thanks. This should lead to a nice SP bounce soon.
Glad my fears were unfounded and my first thoughts came true. Another great qtr and more to come IMO!
BB Yes I understand that Chad still has 333K and Sammy still has over 1.2M shares. But both have sold over $3M worth of stock in the last 6 weeks. Just doesn't make sense to me to sell when they did, UNLESS they had some immediate need they needed to cover. Hope that's it. As the old quote goes, "many reasons to sell, but only one reason to Buy." I was thinking ANI would beat and raise tomorrow until I started thinking about this. We'll see tomorrow.
I am now kinda worried about this ER. With all the recent selling by Sammy and Chad before this ER But after the end of the qtr, it does not make sense to sell in July if they know they will report a great qtr and up guidance in August? Thoughts on tomorrow?
I agree JTFM. I think they were/are sandbagging guidance. We should be in for a another beat and raise. Remember Nikhil saying in the May CC that in April they had Record new patient starts for Corti.
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/ANIP/insider-trades/
The link to Sammy's sale.
The COO Sammy Just sold about 40K shares in the $51.00 range over the last couple of days from his personal account. He still has 7400 shares in his personal account. The SEC From 4 also lists he has 1,332,620 shares held by Esjay LLC. For some reason I couldn't forward the link. I guess he needed some pocket change.
JTFM, Agree with you, especially now that it has broken and held $50.
How is a delisting notice Great news? Hopefully they can trade back above $1.00 for 10 days in a row I believe, to reset this notice. They have 180 days to do so, Nov 2023.
This ticker has the strangest AH and per market action. All over the place, IH has up it over $2.00 and SA has it down 1.30?
BB I couldn't agree more. The market seems a agree, as well. Nice 30% pop out of the gate today.
Yes loved the huge beat and raise, even better than I would have hoped. Still I think the full year Corti revenue guide is to low.
BB Second that. Lets see beat and raise Monday.
JTFM Thanks for sharing. I wonder why they have not issued a PR for this approval that was dated 5/1? Maybe they plan on the PR for Monday AM along with earnings release?
Nice find Auh2oman. This drug could give us a nice revenue boost this qtr. I already saw that MA and WA states are stocking up as well. I'm sure there are others.