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I know supply chain has always been a detriment to Celsius so that is a concern.
But our top channels are still open. Walmart/Target/Kroger/cvs.
We arent as prevalent and reliant as others on convenience stores.
I may be missing way more and I know this will have an impact but I think that the stock is pricing something way worse than will actually happen.
Stay safe, put others health first and keep drinking the cels
Red Bull is still the market leader and there 12 oz can only has 125MG. 8 oz can is under 100.
The "performance" drinks like Bang/Reign have 300.
But to scale the way we want, we need to be an every day/2x a day drink and at our caffeine level, it is just in performance category.
I have tried all 3. Nice flavors but I love the Wild Berry flavor.
Hopefully not in the same day! 400MG of caffeine will have your heart racing!
I love the flavors of the drinks. I drink them daily but my one complaint is that it is a LOT of caffeine for one can. I realize the metabolic impact is tied to caffeine level among other things, but I think they would sell even more if there was a half calf version.
I'm just east of St.Louis in Illinois.
We are well supplied at Casey's and 1 Circle K, Smoothie King and CVS. But the Target has been out for 6 weeks.
My local Target has been out of stock of Celsius for over a month. My local Circle K is always well supplied.
The Target stocking and losing that account concerns me. If they can't keep shelves stocked, then Target is wasting sales for empty shelf space. They won't keep that trend for long.
Still a bull but I do have concerns with distribution as they try to scale.
You got it Altitrade!
Saw this today, another good sign...
Stocks Under $10: As promised, Brian added a new name to this portfolio on Wednesday, which is a day later than usual. He bought Celsius Holdings (CELH), a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) that specializes in commercializing healthier, nutritional functional foods, beverages and dietary supplements. Topline growth is expected at 23% and its net margin has moved to 8.4% from 6%, so CELH has the good growth and improving margins that the editor really likes to see. He expects that will lead to higher EPS down the road. The stock also has a good-sized short position, so it should continue moving higher.
112,600 Bid Request at 3.7- Is this the beginning of the end of the shorts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
I was off on the total- $1.3 for quarter. Extrapolated out for the year and that is $5.2M
Revenue of $16.1 million
Domestic revenue increased 69% to $14.4 million
International revenue increased 119% to $1.7 million, up from $766,000 in the year ago quarter
Our Nordic distribution partner People’s Choice, increased revenues by 64% to $1.3 million due to timing of promotional programs and new flavor launches.
As a long time bull and supporter, this feels like they are reaching in desperation as their share price continues to tumble with all the good news they had in the bag revealed.
Func was ill timed. The 2M in European revenue was at risk but we diluted the stock to protect that at a time when shares were at a low point.
I've noticed my local Target shelf has been empty for a week now and the first Circle K that had product is dwindling with zero replenishmnet. Same holds true for my local Fresh Thyme.
seems the supply issues are back the way they had been before. Surely to be a drag on earnings.
If they can figure out supply, this should be a 5+ stock. Still interesting to see what they do with Func. Seems that acquisition was ill timed with all other headwinds. They could have issued shares when the stock was in 5's and less dilution.
Let's hope earnings puts this thing back on the right trajectory.
Altitrade, any ideas on why volume was so high in morning then trailed off around 12 est?
I'm in the St.Louis area (IL side) and I just saw my first placement at Circle K which is one of our most popular C-Stores here.
3 Sku's Wild Berry, Orange and Kiwi Guava. They had just gotten it in and the workers had NO IDEA what it was. They had it placed next to the water to start, but I view that as major progress.
Been checking QuikTrip at least 1x per week and still don't see Celsius on the shelves. That missed rollout in Q3 will not be positive for Q3 growth numbers. But assuming it comes online in Q4, on top of Circle K and Kroger, could be a blowout Q4.
Let's hope we have officially bottomed and it's only straight up from here.
Matt
Celsius has 13% of the branded consumer searches in the last 6 months. That puts them 4th overall. There biggest issue online is they are getting very little volume outside of Amazon. Rockstar beats them by 4 to 1 on Walmart.com but Celsius crushes them by 3 to 1 on Amazon.
If they can strengthen their presence on Walmart.com, maybe that would be a catalyst to get shelf space there.
They are still the 7th most searched for Energy Drink brand on Walmart.com
Online is much different than convenience where the glut is purchases, but it still shows the strength of the brand.
Top 5 overall
Redbull
Bang
Monster
Celsius
Rockstar
With the 7M shares added, is that proportional? With the average daily volume more than doubling than before, does that also have an impact on this?
Definitely not a great trend.
I just bought a sampler case off Amazon.
We need some news to get this thing back trending up!
More insider buying
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4292357-daily-insider-ratings-round-9-16-19
when does this translate into a higher share price!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!????????????????
Now that this equity offering has closed, do we think its possible management was waiting to announce a Costco deal to squeeze shorts and let the new shareholders share in the rise?
I saw a mention again in the last few days of costco stocking. Is an announcement imminent? What would that do to the price?
Seems like some good news on distribution front will make a meaningful move up in share price.
B. Riley @10 as of 9/13.
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/CELH/price-target/
I'm seeing here https://stocktwits.com/symbol/CELH that Desantis bought 1.8M in Celsius and William Milmnoe buys 2M shares on Friday. Isn't that one of the signs of optimism this group was looking for?
Celsius given $10.00 PT by B. Riley. buy rating. https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/CELH/?RegistrationCode=SocialMedia-StockTwits&utm_source=GeneralSocialMedia&utm_medium=Social
400k bid, that is a week's worth of normal volume
I've been adding in the 3.60's as well. If nothing else, they have to become a takeover target...right?
IF, and it's a big IF, Celsius continues national expansion their growth rate should far exceed 30% over the next 18 to 24 months. We just broke 5 today, if 8/8 earns can send the shorts scrambling we could be staring 7 or 8 down very soon.
A CostCo announcement on top of this momentum could send this stock to the level we have long expected.
6.5% pop is something. Earnings release on 8-8 should be interesting. I agree that a CostCo nation wide distribution agreement would really catapult us to the next level. I keep checking local QuickTrips, still not on the shelves yet. So still a lot of room to run still.
Things are looking up for Celsius. Just have to build on the momentum and scare off some of the shorts.
Big block of 14k again today to break through to hit even higher levels.
I think this happened a while ago, but article is from yesterday...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/know-celsius-holdings-celh-rating-130001352.html
This is a great pickup for Celsius. Although I believe they were in select QT's at one time in the past. Energy drinks are predominantly purchased at convenience store so further expansion there is a GREAT sign. Let's hope we get more good news at the quarter rolls on and that a very good earnings report is coming on the heels of the CVS/Target/Dicks national rollout.
GO CELH
All momentum seems to be lost on this stock. I am a long time bull and starting to grow frustrated myself. National deals at Target and CVS should surely get us a lift in Q2 and the NYC expansion as well. But no other news and seems like we are "stuck".
Giving up on China seems to have taken the wind out of the sails. Tell me I am missing something and give me a reason to double down when it gets to the 3's.
Not to mention, they released earnings SMACK in the middle of a bad week for the market. Down 1,500 points this week on the China trade news. That has to be weighing on it in some capacity also.
Altitrade, you were quiet leading up to earnings and no real response after.
What are your thoughts? Decline internationally is not being offset enough by Domestic to get investors excited even with a strong EPS number.
Target, CVS larger rollouts and the new NYC distributor will all impact Q2. I don't think any of us thought Q1 would be the breakout quarter but could get to profitability.
With the national rollouts and a strong push into NYC, Q2 is a make or break quarter in my opinion short of us getting some major distribution news.
Strong lead up to earnings today. Micro trend again, but 4 of the 5 Target's around my area now carrying 4 Sku's. CVS has it across all locations. These are very positive trends that should move Q1 earnings higher and setting up for a breakout Q2.
Momentum building!
looks like Celsius is also part of the Monster Replacement.
https://www.bevnet.com/news/2019/distribution-roundup-big-geyser-revamps-energy-roster-post-monster
I noticed a "New" Target locally carrying Celsius and the original location now has 4 sku's adding Sparkling Orange in. I live within 20 minutes of 3 Target locations and 2 of the 3 are now carrying 4 Sku's. Seems to be flying on the shelf in each location, but I haven't heard any news of expansion within Target. Anything out there?
Any updates from the Plano Costco pilot?
Picked up as many shares as my free cash would allow me yesterday. I know Bang is the new No 1, but seems like momentum in Celsius is very strong.
The local Casey's here have now stocked 2 Heat flavors. Realize these are very micro anecdotes, but still feels like very positive momentum.
Rise up Celsius, be the phoenix that you are!
Do we have any idea when that will start to show on the balance sheet? Also, any insight into them raising additional funds? Was the possibility on raising funds tied to Rockstar lawsuit or on additional expansion?
Very excited to hear about Celsius pilot at Costco. The St Louis area has seen Target, Dick's as new retailers and Casey's is now stocking consistently. Still noticing Celsius is always out at Target, I check 3x a week and I bought the last can at Dicks.
Any updates on distribution and supply chain management to keep the shelves stocked?
I appreciate the passionate rebuttal. For all the sake of my wish list, I hope you are dead right.
One random thought here, I LOVE the peach mango flavor. Would drink one every day except that 200mg of caffeine doesn't always agree with my caffeine sensitive body.
Has the brand ever considered keeping all the "natural" elements but reducing the caffeine content?
I beleive such a heavy dose of caffeine and positioning as a pre workout drink has a limiting effect.
Just a thought.
And I am long CELH and am a big believer in the product/brand and have been for a long time. Just very concerned at the moment!
Bang has/had a lawsuit from Monster. I can't imagine the lawsuit is holding Celsius down that much. https://www.law.com/dailybusinessreview/2018/09/06/bang-energy-drink-manufacturer-hit-with-monster-lawsuit-over-its-health-claims/
Giving up the future potential of China in a big way has to be weighing negatively on the stock. Part of the growth outlook was China expansion. We sold that off for our investment plus pennies on the dollar.
Whats the point for the shorts to cover at this point? What if they do believe in Celsius long term but are willing to buy it here or in a narrow spread? They make money if it stays flat, right? They buy if it goes up. Why would you not be short at this point? They are making money and the stock has shown little ability to sky rocket.
The upside is far more limited now than it has ever been.
Maybe shorts know that a Target/CVS or Dick's isn't going to reorder?
I check 3x a week for Celsius at the 1 target who stocks it. It has been consistently out. That could mean it sells faster than they can stock it, or it is in such short supply that it sells fast and can't be restocked quick enough. Or it could mean that Target is ready to pull the plug.
So much uncertainty and such little news on major things. I can see why shorts are playing this thing to the tune they are.
Ok, then we are on the same page.
They basically threw the towell in on China and said we will sell you the business to save our Marketing dollars in admission of defeat in exchange for a 3% upside.
So it is a Domestic and Nordics company again. This has to put a lid on the share price lower than what we are seeing, correct?
Help me understand why this is good for the valuation?
Yes, we do get our capital expenditures returned and no longer will incur huge marketing costs, but this limits the upside in the China market which no doubt has been seen as a huge growth possibility.
Yes, domestic sales have been running high and this should get us to positive EBITDA, but doesn't this SIGNIFICANTLY cap the growth potential on the stock? Also, how does this licensing arrangement impact the future sale of the business?
Altitrade, this is in line with your thinking of spinning into two businesses, but this limits growth of revenue in China significantly.
We have it here locally to St. Louis at 1 out of 5 Target's, Fresh Market, Academy Sports, Dick's, and at a select few Casey's general stores. I do my best to spread my buying so that I can get them to keep restocking!
Target has been out for about 3 weeks now and not replenished, most casey's once they run out don't seem to restock. Wondering if that is a store decision not to restock or still part of the brand's difficulties in distribution.
These are clearly micro trends but makes you wonder.