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Off we go.
SMD run into problems and will be retested later if time.
Theta West is ok to go......testing starting next week.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PANR/operations-update/15353346
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Interesting trade in the US yesterday.
633,300 purchased well above the offer price, at 1.93 USD.
Thats a buy order for 1.22 million US dollars filled. Thats a confident buy.
Of course, if the rig is moving off of site, it would mean by default that "cased hole wireline logging" has been completed, if it was done, as you need the rig to run the wireline logging. So if cased hole logging has been done, the results are readily available now. Interesting times..........
No changes to dates and time......so Rig Move should be happening now.
Rig off of Theta West should mean clearly that flow testing can proceed.
Rig move plan was notified on Monday 28th. This means, imo, the remedial work was completed quickly and since then they have run cased hole wireline logging. They have to do that as the rig is needed to run wireline. A few days demob......prior to the rig moving, so they now have the full cased hole wireline logs.
If they have the full wireline logs now from cased hole logging, they should be releasing this price sensitive information to the market very soon !!!!
https://511.alaska.gov/map#Closures-ERS--1505
Oversized Vehicle on Dalton Hwy Northbound from mile marker 387 to mile marker 414 . Road Closure for 36 hours.
Comment
GREAT BEAR PANTHEON, IN PARTNERSHIP WITH CRUZ CONSTRUCTION AND NORDIC CALISTA, WILL BE MOVING A LARGE DRILL RIG ON THE DALTON HIGHWAY FROM MILE 386.7 TO DEADHORSE THE MOVE IS ANTICIPATED TO LAST BETWEEN 30 AND 36 HOURS.
DALTON HWY RIG MOVE 12:15AM ON MARCH 3rd MILE 386.7 TO DEADHORSE ROAD CLOSURES WILL BE ESTABLISHED DURING THE MOVE THE RIG WILL BE STOPPED IN TWO LOCATIONS TO ALLOW TRAFFIC TO PASS ESTABLISHED LOCATIONS AND ESTIMATED TIMES: CLOSE ROAD AT MILE 386.7 – START THE RIG MOVE PULLOUT AT MILE 403.7 – 16 TO 18 HOURS AFTER RIG MOVE START PULLOUT AT MILE 412.7 – 24 TO 28 HOURS AFTER RIG MOVE START OPEN ROAD AT DEADHORSE – 30 TO 36 HOURS AFTER RIG MOVE START
INFORMATION: CODY OATMAN, CRUZCONSTRUCTION COATMAN@CRUZCONSTRUCT.COM // 907-320-6046
THE MOVE SCHEDULE MAY BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER. IF DATES NEED TO BE MODIFIED, UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.
Start Time Mar 3 2022, 12:15 AM
Anticipated End Time Mar 4 2022, 12:15 PM
Last Updated Feb 28 2022, 9:05 AM
Id: 1505
#PANR $PTHRF #Alaska #OTC #OTCMarkets @PantheonResour1 #88E #EEENF Theta West rig is moving off site today. So that means no sidetrack.....so must mean all is ok and testing equipment moving in soon imo. #oil #oott
https://511.alaska.gov/map#Closures-ERS--1505
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I understand the frustration with the delays but lets be honest.
This is VERY NORMAL when an oil or gas production facility is brough online for the first time in 20 years.
As an example I can point you to Petro Matad (MATD) where they made the Heron discovery and wanted it online quickly. Nobody had applied for an oil production facility for perhaps 20 years. Everything had to be reviewed, tonnes of paperwork and red tape, everyone in government unsure of the process.......and still Heron is not online. I think it will be 3 years.
The same applies to Trinidad and new gas production. Nobody has applied for over 20 years, nobody in government has any experience of it, lots of CYA and being unsure, lots of delays........
This is very normal. And the only thing Paul is guilty of is "enthusiasm".
We can look at oil differently. Rosyton discovery, its on EWT now producing oil and the oil produced is being sold. Very quick and simple.
How many people are thanking Paul for so quickly selling EWT oil from Royston ? Nobody ? and yet many are happy to berate him for the holds ups with gas.
The delays on the gas are a "one time" thing. Everyone will have learned about the process, and everything in future will be very much faster, especially without Covid as well, and in the case of Coho - without Shell being snails and holding things up as well.
So ultimately - why am I buying more now ?
I am adding now at lows with a view to major news in 6 to 9 months time. This is investing, buying the low, viewing the events in the future, taking advantage of the potential success.
Cascadura online and Krakken-1 drilling. Thats 2 massive events for TXP and events which could push the price of TXP up to the range of 200p to 450p (450p if Krakken hits oil and 200p+ with Cascadura being online and generating all that cash).
Cascadura is worth 150p a share now to TXP pre-production, that you can buy below this presents opportunity. Add in potential "major oil discovery" confirmation at Royston and then Krakken-1 well to be drilled in the summer, and Cascadura being online - then its a solid investment imo with a 9 month outlook.
Things should kick off with the two Coora wells sometime later in this month or April, then the rig moves to drill Royston Deep-1 and then all being well Krakken-1. We have Coho gas online hopefully by end of May. Cascadura should be online by late August. Also Bass, Steelhead and Guabine exploration targets (and many more on top of them) and more than likely the Chinook oil discovery will be drilled updtip in late 2023/2024.
Year end 2022 we should see 100mmscf/day gas production (plus liquids) from Coho and Cascadura, with that ramping up to 200mmscf/day by end of 2023.
Year end 2022 we should see near 2000bopd from the Legacy oil licenses after the 2 Coora wells are done - we should see that level by end of H1 2022 actually.
And we potentially will have three oil wells at Royston producing via EWT being Royston-1 and Royston Deep-1 and Krakken-1. Between those 3 what might they yield ? 2000bopd ? 3000 bopd?
So much is going on in the future, but yes, frustrating for the moment but I firmly believe patience will be handsomely rewarded, very handsomely rewarded.........and remember, all that "Stock on Loan" all 9 million shares of it borrowed from Crest and short sold, has to be purchased back and returned to Crest at some point. They will not be holding that short level once Cascadura is online, so the timeline to close that short is now less than 6 months.
Feb 2022 figures added.
A bigger increase in February, with 160K additional shares borrowed and short sold.
TXP Stock on Loan (Shorts) from Euroclear (% borrowed from CREST holdings - average)
Jan 2021____0.52%
Feb 2021____1.23%
Mar 2021____7.14%
Apr 2021____8.65%
May 2021____8.79%
Jun 2021____8.74%
Jul 2021____8.49%
Aug 2021____8.45%
Sep 2021____8.39%
Oct 2021____8.37%
Nov 2021____8.37%
Dec 2021____8.72%
Jan 2022____8.49%
Feb 2022____8.64% (9.02 million short - up from 8.84 million in Jan 21)
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Canadian Market shows the short position as of 15th February 2022 has increased by 159,733, so the total Canada short as of 15th Feb 2022 was 706,746
So plenty of downward price suppression pressure is being applied in both London and Toronto.
UK ADVFN thread link is https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=49822175
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News out today.........Spud of Merlin-2 well on track for next week. Link below :
https://clients3.weblink.com.au/Clients/_88Energy/v3/headline.aspx?headlineid=61079581
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Jay Cheatham, CEO, said "Once again we have an excellent result from the Talitha #A testing. Similar to the Basin Floor Fan ("BFF"), we had two goals in testing the SFS: (i) to prove we had moveable oil, and (ii) to prove high quality oil. We have achieved both of these. I was on location in the flow back trailer and collected the crude personally, which is indeed light and sweet. We exceeded original expectations with the flow rates achieved from these two sand bodies. We now believe the Slope Fan extends east near the Dalton Highway giving us additional potential resource developable from gravel along the highway. The issue encountered at Theta West typify some of the frustrations in drilling and completions; thankfully we had a contingency built into our planning."
Bob Rosenthal, Technical Director, said "This is fantastic result particularly given we only perforated two, five foot intervals in a vertical well. This test confirms light oil in the SFS which is not accounted for in any of our resource assessments. As we do further work, we expect an upgrade to our resource numbers for these results. Encouragingly, our testing to date suggests that we could be in the sweet spot for finding light oil on the North Slope. So far, we have tested light oil in four hydrocarbon accumulations: (i) the Alkaid (deep) anomaly, (ii) the Lower BFF, (iii) the Slope Fan System upper lobe, and (iv) the Lower Slope lower lobe."
Another superb flow test result !!!!!
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PANR/operational-update/15335548
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Pantheon flow tested the Lower BFF at Talitha.
Lower BFF at Theta West is expected to be 11 Billion barrels of Oil in Place with a recoverable estimate of 1.2 Billion based on 11% Recovery Factor.
Given the Lower BFF has flowed very well at a distal location in poorer reservoir rock, if Theta West hits pay in the Lower BFF then it should flow well,and the recovery factor should be higher than the current estiamted 11%.
There is an Upper BFF target at Theta West, estimated if its there to be 1.1 Billion barrels of OIP and 210 Million recoverable.
So the key logging data at Theta West to look for is potential pay in the Lower BFF and any potential pay in the bonus zone, the Upper BFF.
If they both come in good we are looking at 1.41 Billion barrels of recoverable oil - however - if they come in very good, and based on Talitha BFF Lower testing, the Recovery Factor may be much higher.......and 1.41 Billion recoverable may turn into double or triple that with testing and confirmation work.
Whilst the downside of failure exists, the probability of success is quite high now........
If the wireline logging results from Theta West are good, then for sure PANR should be breaking though 200p a share and might even touch 250p a share before in depth testing.
I still think Monday next week for wireline logging results, but who knows, might be sooner.
IMO, DYOR !
Video - Talitha Testing :
Pantheon Resources @PantheonResour1
New video drop tomorrow - titled: Testing at Talitha #A. Premiering at 1030am GMT Tuesday. A must watch.
A point to consider is :
Current estimates of 1.2 billion barrels recoverable is based on a low recovery factor of 10% to 11%.
Now, the crappy rock 10 miles away from the sweet spot has flowed far exceeding expectations.
So the likelihood, in the success case with Theta West, of a big upgrade using a much higher recovery factor is possible, indeed probable.
A move to 20% recovery factor yields 2.4 billion recoverable barrels and not "just" 1.2 billion.
Thats something for the future, but IF Theta West yields lots of BFF pay and then, IF the BFF flows much better than expected, as has the BFF at Talitha distal location, then its game on for bigger things than currently forecast.
Canaccord view on todays news :
Very encouraging start to Talitha testing
Canaccord Genuity view
Talitha #A Basin Floor Fan reservoir flows high quality oil
The first result is in from the wide-ranging operations programme on the company's
100% held licences onshore Alaska, and Pantheon has made a very good start. The
first of three planned well tests in the Talitha #A well produced average 73 bopd light oil (over three days) from the Basin Floor Fan (BFF). Pantheon's definition pre-test of success for the BFF, as it is for the upcoming Slope Fans test, was to produce 'moveable, good quality' oil. That has been achieved.
This is very encouraging especially as Talitha #A, a vertical well drilled in Q1 21, was located sub-optimally for BFF evaluation. Further work is required to evaluate the likely productivity from a potential horizontal development well at this location.
The Theta West #1 well, which is specifically targeting the BFF, is being drilled some 10+miles to the north-west of Talitha #A. Pantheon anticipates a much thicker reservoir interval and at a shallower depth at Theta West #1 than at Talitha #A, and that could mean substantially better reservoir parameters.
While this first test result in Talitha #A looks to be a good initial step towards establishing the potential for the commerciality of the BFF in this area, there is still much to be done before that can be confirmed. The next important data point will be results from Theta West #1 which is on track to reach total depth (TD) imminently.
BFF Test details
Zones: Three zones, each of 10 ft thickness within the Lower BFF, over a total gross 370ft vertical section, have been stimulated and flows from each have been commingled.
Results: Over a three-day test period these zones produced 73 bopd light oil (c.35-39 API) with a sustained rate of 40 bopd on the final day. The company believes that the pressure data recorded supports the view that these later flow test rates are indicative of the production potential of this reservoir at this location in a vertical well.
Near term plans
Talitha #A testing: The company plans to test the Slope Fans reservoir next. Oil was identified in this interval and Pantheon intends to stimulate and test across two reservoir zones. We would expect results in the next 10-14 days.
Theta West -1 drilling: Pantheon has stated that the well is expected to reach TD within the next 24 hours or so. Following that we would anticipate a comprehensive electric wireline logging programme to be conducted, with a decision on possible testing to follow.
Valuation, target price and rating
Today's announcement is just the first of a number over the next 6+ months related
to the testing of Talitha #A and the drilling and possible testing of Theta West #1
and Alkaid #2. While it is a good start, there is plenty to do to confirm the scale and potential commerciality of the discoveries made so far. Ideally, the results from the whole programme should be viewed in their totality, but undoubtedly the drilling and possible test results from Theta West #1 will be a key part of the whole 2022 operational plan.
We maintain our 220p target price and our SPECULATIVE BUY rating.
WH Ireland view on todays news :
Pantheon Resources (PANR) – Corporate – Flow Testing of Lower Basin Floor Fan
Pantheon Resources announced that the Lower Basin Floor Fan has been flow tested at the Talitha #A well at an average rate of 73 b/d over a three day test period. The oil is of a 35-39° API weight. The well was tested over three intervals (10 feet perforations) that were individually fractured and tested. The company indicated that the well’s bottom hole pressure was near to reservoir pressure on the final day of testing.
WHI View: The Talitha #A well location is in a downdip/distal or suboptimal location. The purpose of the test was fundamentally to confirm that the reservoir was productive to the extent that i) the oil was mobile in the reservoir and ii) the downhole reservoir pressure would be sufficient to move the oil up the wellbore. We believe that in respect of those test objectives the test has been an unambiguous success. Intuitively, we believe the absolute value of the flow test – 73b/d – is impressive, as is the minimal pressure drawdown.
The Lower Basin Floor Fan is – by far – the company’s single largest resource, with a best estimate recoverable resource of 1.2 billion barrels of oil. Our success case fair value estimate equates to $4.80/b (after-tax), equating to a value of $5.8 billion. The company indicated that further testing will be required to fully prove up / confirm the resource, albeit, we believe, today’s news represents a significant step forwards.
Today’s news will focus attention on the Theta West #1 well that will be testing the same structure (and the Upper BFF) in an optimal location 10.5 miles to the northeast – a colossal step out well.
Today’s news is truly, in our opinion, a very exciting development and we anticipate a very positive share price reaction. We note that the sector backdrop for the oil & gas sector is exceptionally supportive.
Wonderful news !!! Better than expected !!!
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PANR/talitha-a-testing-update/15317317
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WHI Update note on Pantheon today :
Pantheon Resources
WHI Valuation Update and Overview of Near-term Outlook
Based on i) Pantheon Resources’ $96m capital raise consisting of a $41m equity raise at 65p and $51m of convertible bonds with a conversion price of 78p and ii) the rising price of crude oil, we are increasing our fair value estimate for Pantheon Resources to 184p from 172p. For reference, we have increased our Brent oil price estimate to $87/b, up from $80/b, which we inflate at 1% per annum starting in 2023. Pantheon Resources’ near-term drilling and testing operations, represent, in our opinion, the most exciting operations of their kind globally in 2022 – based on the elephantine scale of its resource base. Focusing only on the core resources that Pantheon Resources will be testing over the course of 2022, the company stands to significantly derisk 1.9 billion barrels of recoverable oil (2C estimates of Pantheon Resources). In our opinion, three major nearterm catalysts make the outlook for Pantheon Resources akin to a wild ride on the back of an enormous elephant running up a steep hill – Buckle up!
Catalyst #1 – Testing at Talitha #A: Flow testsfollowing frack completions are planned from bottom to top of the well (excluding the Kupurak formation, which will require a specific fit-for-purpose well). The schematic in Figure 1 indicates which zones are planned to be tested at the Talitha #A well during the 2022 testing program. In general terms, the primary objective for each of the tests is to establish that oil is sufficiently mobile to flow from the reservoir into the wellbore with sufficient pressure to push the oil up the production tubing. An assortment of detailed analysis will be driven by the results of the primary test objective. Why is oil mobility so important? If Pantheon Resources can establish oil mobility from a single frack made from a vertical well, it is very likely that, once optimised, a horizontal well with 30—40 isolated frack stages will produce meaningful oil volumes. For reference, the company intends to commercialise its conventional resource base exclusively with long horizontal wells. Specifically for the SMD flow test, Pantheon Resources, has suggested that a 50-80 b/d rate would be a highly successful result (based on the prior Alkaid#1 production test).
Catalyst #2 – Drilling & testing Theta West #1: For the Theta West structures the Theta West#1 well represents a colossal step out well – it is located 10.5 miles to the northwest of the Talitha #A well, which penetrated the Theta West structures, amongst other resources. The Theta West #1 well is expected to confirm the volumetric and petrophysical parameters of the proven Theta West structures, which, in turn is expected to increase confidence in the 1.4 billion barrel success-case recoverable resource estimate for Theta West (of which 85% relates to the structure labelled the Lower Basin Floor Fan with the remainder relating to the structure labelled the Upper Basin Floor Fan). Pantheon Resources intends to undertake flow testing following fracture completions at the Theta West #1 well. The Theta West #1 well is expected to penetrate circa 1,300 feet of oil bearing Theta West reservoir and it is expected to the penetrate the top of the reservoir some 1,500 feet higher than the structure was penetrated by the Talitha #A well. This is critical because the Theta West is expected to have better, more productive characteristics at the (structurally higher) Theta West#1 location than at the Talitha #A location. The scale of Theta West relative to Prudhoe Bay (the largest conventional oilfield in the USA; 14+ billion barrels of recoverable oil) as well as the Talitha #A well and the Theta West #1 well locations can be seen in Table 2 – Theta West is a giant even by elephantine standards.
Catalyst #3 – Drilling & testing the Alkaid #2 Well: We expect the first significant outcome from the Alkaid #2 well will relate to establishing the bottom of the Alkaid Deep (Brookian ZOI) structure, which will, in our opinion, almost certainly result in a resource upgrade from the current 2C recoverable resource estimate of 76.5 million barrels of oil (as estimated by Lee Keeling and Associates). This is because the current resource estimate for that structure includes only the height of the resource column as logged by the Alkaid #1 well; however, the drilling of that well was interrupted by a freak flood event at the Sag River right as the well was drilling through premium reservoir: Drilling deeper will almost surely indicate the scale of the Alkaid Deep resource is bigger than currently modelled. The well will also provide data to evaluate the Shelf Margin Deltaic B structure also labelled the Upper Alkaid structure. After drilling a vertical pilot well, Alkaid #2 will be drilled as a horizontal well and completed with 30—40 fracture stages (one stage per 250 feet). Pantheon Resources guided that it is modelling initial production rates of circa 100-150 b/d per 1000 feet of horizontal lateral. The Alkaid #2 well is expected to be placed on a long-term (permanent) production test that will also provide commercial revenues to Pantheon Resources. Suffice is to say, Alkaid #2 is a high-impact well for Pantheon Resources.
Points for perspective
ConocoPhillips: We were interested to hear ConocoPhillips underline its commitment to growing production in Alaska during its 3Q 2021 results call, particularly given that its giant Willow project is seemingly having permitting difficulties due to its location in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. In comparison, Pantheon Resources’ landholdings are entirely on Alaskan state lands where the Federal Government does not have permitting jurisdiction. We expect Pantheon Resources’ projects to be supported by the State of Alaska.
Location, location, location: There is no other oil & gas resource project under appraisal in Alaska that is remotely as advantaged as those of Pantheon Resources in terms of being adjacent to the Trans Alaskan Pipeline System and the Dalton Highway. The advantages of Pantheon Resources’ location include: i) ease of access for drilling ii) lower costs iii) reduced permitting obstacles and iv) faster timelines. We believe, Pantheon Resources’ assets are in a class apart due to their location relative to Alaska’s most important logistical infrastructure.
To farm out or not to farm out?: We believe that Pantheon Resources shareholders will retain the most value by not farming out during the appraisal and early commercialisation stages of its projects. Effectively, we endorse the company’s strategy to have diluted equity value modestly at the corporate level in order to retain a 100% operating interest in the entirety of its landholdings. At some point, we believe, there will be a tipping point where shareholder value will be maximised by securing a farmout/sale at the asset level.
Upheaval in energy sector: We believe the energy sector is in a state of upheaval as awareness spreads that alternatives to oil (and natural gas and coal) are simply not up to the job. The rising price of oil due to strong demand growth, limited potential supply growth and shrinking spare supply capacity, creates a supportive backdrop for Pantheon Resources, in our opinion.
Keep an eye on the elephants: We have characterised Pantheon Resources’ assets as a herd of elephants. In our opinion, Theta West, SMD-B and Alkaid Deep are the resources to watch with the most interest over the 2022 testing program. Combined, they amount to a best estimate success-case recoverable resource estimate of 1.9 billion barrels of oil (please see the valuation table provided in Table 1).
Limited projects: We believe that globally there is a limited number of greenfield projects capable of providing structurally significant energy supplies - Pantheon Resources’ elephantine assets have, we believe, considerable strategic value.
Theta West: Theta West is a monster elephant, a positive outcome in respect of this resource has potential to materially change the US energy landscape, in our opinion.
ESG: Pantheon Resources intends to reinject all the emissions from its operational activities – making it a net zero operator. The drilling and surface footprint to develop Pantheon’s resources will be extremely limited due to the ability of the company to drill many long-lateral extended reach wells from each drilling pad. In pragmatic terms, we believe that Pantheon Resources’ projects will have an extremely limited impact on Alaska’s wildlife.
The company has defined their expectations in the Webinar. Which basically boils down to proving some moveable oil in any zone, with a target of 50 to 60 bopd from the upper SMD after a single small frac.
So if any zone has movable oil this is successful, and for the SMD (ONLY) we are looking for say 50bopd from the single frac in the vertical.
Expectation is :
BFF : (Lower BFF) Looking only for some moveable oil - no defined flow rate - any flow is good no matter how small at Talitha. The real Upper BFF flow test will be done at Theta West well if the Upper BFF is proven there. So here success is "Good Quality Oil that is moveable".
SFS : Looking only for some moveable oil - no defined flow rate - any flow is good no matter how small at Talitha.So here success is "Good Quality Oil that is moveable".
SMD : Primary Zone of Interest and Testing. Single small frac to be done. Looking for 50 bopd flow or higher from this small frac in vertical.
Talitha BFF testing for moveable high quality oil.
Talitha SFS testing for moveable high quality oil
Talitha SMD testing for flow rates from small single frac in vertical (50bopd+)
will be followed by
Theta West BFF testing for flow rates from frac in vertical well.
Spudding Theta West video :
Spudding Theta West video :
New interview with CEO and the Technical Director
17th January operations update video :
Canaccord raises #PANR target price to 220 pence.
https://etfdailynews.com/news/pantheon-resources-lonpanr-pt-raised-to-gbx-220-at-canaccord-genuity-group/
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Operations update video :
Good news for #PANR No direct effect on their areas, but it reduces the area's available which therefore makes Pantheon areas more valuable in the future.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Biden-Administration-To-Reduce-Oil-Drilling-Lease-Area-In-Alaska.html
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Rig move viideo
Rig is on its way !!
Large drill rig being moved on Dalton Hwy from Deadhorse to mile 386.7 starting 12:15 a.m. January 4. The move is expected to last 30-36 hours. A road closure will be in effect during this time. The rig will be stopped in 2 locations to allow traffic to pass. Locations estimated times are: • Pullout at mile 412.7 – 6 AM, Tues. Jan 4 • Pullout at mile 403.7 – 3 PM, Tues. Jan 4 • Open road at mile 386.7 – 8 AM Wed. Jan 5 Questions or more information: Cody Oatman, Cruz Construction, coatman@cruzconstruct.com, 907-320-6046
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Operations update - Ice road has commenced.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PANR/operations-update/15254970
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Indeed it does look good. Now they are fully funded for all the drills and more the upside is very large indeed.