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10 Days until June 7th expected soft tissue FDA approval. 20 days until June 17th expected vitiligo FDA approval. We’re in that period where manipulation is rampant while the manipulators do everything they can to psychologically screw people out of their shares. Sowing doubt becomes the focus, but they’ll never admit it. I’ve seen this too many times; I’ve learned the drill.
Target market expands 5X the current burns market immediately after soft tissue approval. It expands another 5X after vitiligo sales launch in January 2025 for a total of 25X the current burns target market. None of this includes international; that’s icing on the cake. Plus, Recell GO will likely increase market penetration significantly.
Let’s say that Recell’s current market penetration stays the same for each indication with no additional international expansion. If the company realized $10.5 million in Q1 revenue, we can multiply that times 25 to get an idea of what conservative revenue could look like, ballpark figure. —$262.5 million per quarter in revenue. —$1.05 billion per year. Let’s say conservatively that 50% of that is free cash flow. —$525 million per year in FCF. Now, let’s apply a PE ratio of 10 to be very conservative (growth companies usually have PE around 20-50); you get a market cap of $5.25 billion.
Again, these figures are ballpark and don’t include international expansion or additional market penetration due to Recell GO. They also assume the same penetration for each indication that we have for burns today. The market cap ballpark figure is using a PE ratio of 10, which is typical for mature companies that have reached market saturation; growth PE is often substantially higher. Overall, you’re looking at a gain of 19X in share price. With more market penetration, a higher PE, new indications (ie cosmetics), and international expansion, the gains could go quite higher. Keep focused on the long game. Don’t let manipulation work on you.
I’m assuming that CEO had good discussions with FDA at the 100 day meetings. Why else would be be so confident to hire 40 more sales reps? Keep in mind that the Recell part of the process of treating wounds is nearly identical whether treating burns, soft tissue, or vitiligo, and Recell already has FDA approval for kids and adults for burn injuries.
-CEO confident of FDA approvals.
-June 7 soft tissue approval expected.
-June 17 vitiligo approval expected.
-current burns target market: 25,000
-post soft tissue approval target market: 145,000
-145,000/25,000= 5.8 multiple
-post vitiligo launch target market: 645,000
-645,000/25,000= 25.8 multiple
-70 reps now. More cost effective hiring early.
-marketing for soft tissue to begin right after approval.
-Recell Go enables international and vitiligo
-Recell Go launches ASAP after January 1, 2024 approval.
-Recell Go ESG-friendly
-International expansion details in Q4 2023
-Q1 2025 breakeven of burns and soft tissue with $30+ million remaining for vitiligo and international
-Q3 2023 is peak expenses. Expenses to decline after that.
-Chief Commercial Officer is no longer an expense and the role will not be replaced.
-Company looking for partner in Australia; this is priority.
-soft tissue promotion will be launched in 70+ hospitals in Q2.
-83% margins expected to grow as volumes increase
-Shelf offering is not an actual offering. It’s preparation for offering. Replaces previous shelf offering. Structures company to be flexible.
-30% of burns market is in trauma centers and accessible after soft tissue approval.
Correction, the $0.55 “typo” is actually the correct EPS, but in AUD, so the EPS miss was by more than 5% that I posted. However, that EPS miss can be explained by one off severance expenses and rollout expenses.
Just wait til the sellers from Friday realize that the $0.55 EPS loss is a typo. It’s actually a $0.37 EPS loss. Do the calculation yourself by bringing up the 10Q on SEC’s Edgar. Run Net Loss / Average Outstanding Share Count. Since the share count didn’t change much, I’ll use the share count on the last 10Q of 25,327,761 outstanding shares. The net loss from the 10Q was $9,220,000. So, $9,220,000/25,327,761. You get $0.364 loss per share. —A big difference compared to Google’s EPS of $0.55 loss per share. Turned a good report into a what-the…. I find the typo suspicious, especially when viewing the manipulative after-hours activity combined with a retail shareholder majority ownership and major FDA approvals just a month away. The actual EPS miss was only 4-5%, not 55% as shown on Google. Piper Sandler increased their price target after the report. You can find typo of $0.55 loss per share in the 8K posted to Edgar on 5/12/23
Excellent news!
Webinar now viewable: Avita Website
Firms with plenty of cash (RCEL), with no debt and no desire to go into debt (RCEL), with a cash runway until likely profitability based on projected cash burn (RCEL), with no desire to raise cash at the current SP (RCEL) should fare well in this environment.
Avita’s CEO is paid a fraction of median biotech CEO pay.
Avita is setting up multiple revenue streams to achieve higher LONG TERM shareholder value. Future indications (post 2023) will require minimum investment since Avita will form partnerships to help cover the costs of trials etc. So after sales start with Vitiligo and Soft Tissue Regeneration, it’s off to the races without the big trial expenses. I think you see how a successful launch could lead to profitability sooner rather than later, maybe by late 2024 perhaps? 4 revenue streams trumps today’s 1 revenue stream, so I look forward to the results of management’s hard work. Current US Burns revenue alone (with high trial costs) vs US/Japan Burns (late 2022), US stable Vitiligo repigmentation (late 2023), and US soft tissue reconstruction (late 2023) revenue streams. More low-cost indications to come in the future. This is indeed an oversold star in the making.
“The research firm also found typical CEO compensation has nearly doubled since 2019. Median compensation rose from $2.8 million in 2019 to $5.1 million in 2021; the average pay level jumped from $4.7 million to $8.1 million in that timespan. MyLogIQ's CEO, Ganesh Rajappan, told Insider this jump in biopharma CEO pay outpaced the S&P 500.”
And you thought Avita’s CEO was overpaid because some bashers on a forum told you so.
https://www.businessinsider.com/list-top-paid-pharma-and-biotech-ceos-2022-5#bridgebio-pharma-ceo-neil-kumar-25626959-1
Avita’s CEO gets what? $1.2 million?
Just so you know, I am still invested in RCEL. This is ThaYoda from the Yahoo boards. I haven't been posting because some people in the forums must have reported me for whatever, so I am unable to post at all on Yahoo. I did not sell, and I am holding for at least 3-5 years.
The SP could climb to fair value quickly as investors turn to defensive stocks in the face of rising inflation and rising interest rates at the fed. The SP is significantly undervalued when comparing the firm’s PE ratio to its historical average. JUUL approval at the FDA, cannabis legalization, and IQOS sales could serve as major catalysts going forward that could quickly bring this back to fair value which would likely yield around 4.5%. We probably don’t have much longer to accumulate while yielding over 6% on shares purchased. —ThaYoda
Company expecting more revenue and less operating expenses. The company was cashflow positive in all of the months of the first quarter. What's not to like? Republicans and Democrats alike are filing bills to deschedule cannabis. What's not to like? Prohibition's days are numbers, and a supermajority of Americans wants legalization. Since we are a software company that sells loyalty software to dispensaries in legal states, imagine the scalability in a fully regulated legal mj market in all 50 states with us profiting from loyalty marketing software and delivery by dispensaries that want to beat out their peers. This is a win-win-win for the dispensary, the customer, and Leafbuyer. The ONLY thing holding this back is a lack of awareness at this point.
Bought today on what appears to be a highly undervalued play with low RSI and high performance. Net Income positive company.
Looking forward to earnings. Will we get another 100% pop? Seems undervalued. Bought more.
Bought more. Price way too low.
Seems oversold.
This will be like buying Tesla at $250.
He's often wrong. Only human like everyone else..
Shorts were so desperate when GM didn't back away from the deal that they starting pulling a Trevor Martin fraud themselves by spreading false rumors that Trevor Martin was arrested at the airport in an attempt to manipulate the share price. Lawsuits should follow.
GM is still in though... The shorts were preaching that GM would exit. —That’s not happening. What now?
GM said this today: "We acknowledge Trevor Milton's departure from Nikola and the decision of the Nikola Board to move forward. We will work with Nikola to close the transaction we announced nearly two weeks ago to seize the growth opportunities in broader markets with our Hydrotec fuel cell and Ultium battery systems, and to engineer and build the Nikola Badger. Nikola, Honda and other companies who are looking to GM's technology as a platform for their products, represent just one part of our overall EV strategy. Our overall goal is to put everyone in an EV and accelerate adoption."
"This growth places Leafbuyer in an extremely strong position to meet our goals," continued Rossner. "Demand for these communication solutions continues to expand, and we will aggressively onboard new clients in the coming months to accelerate this positive trend." https://finance.yahoo.com/news/leafbuyer-technologies-inc-announces-significant-120000308.html
The PM types like to make acquisitions.
A cash raise also allows the business to raise funds to increase shareholder value which could result in much higher revenues, especially in an FDA regulated future environment and when considering the valuable IP. I invest for 20 years from now. —Just accumulating. See why BofA says Tesla’s dilution is a good thing that could raise TSLA by a whopping 16% in value. https://apple.news/AAMyJjmV-Shibf21ITmDOdQ
“So in Q3 and Q4, I think our expenses are about as low as they're going to get, but now you're going to start to see revenue start to hit the top line, not only from Colombia but other regions as well.
So then what we said in the last quarter was that we expect that it’d be cash flow neutral, cash flow positive in the first part of 2021, and we're going to stick by that statement. Again, COVID -- allowance for COVID get much worse around the world, but things are looking a little bit better right now. But your guess is as good as mind on that. But we're feeling very, very positive on that for next year.” —Chris N. Guidance. Chairman.
Still here. Been busy.
Signed.
Vitacost PlusCBD: https://www.vitacost.com/Hemp-Infused-Products?csrc=EM-20200809_Other:CBD&M_BT=40612113982835
Vitacost doesn’t sell to certain states.
FDA regulations should put our products in all 50 states over time. L&S
I'm specifically referring to the CBD lines due to the arena of high competition. The most important factor is brand-building. We need to reach the cabinet of a loyal customer before other companies do, and the best way to do that at this time is by dropping the price (assuming good marketing). The other lines may not need the deep discounting and could potentially sustain the business if the revenues are right.. We'll see what happens. These new lines could allow the company to get creative..
Doesn't PlusCBD already contain quality Omega 3's?
CVSI should continue to offer deep discounts on their CBD products to reach as many cabinets and shelves as possible during this time. Once customers try the product, they will come back for more, because it works. Once we've established significant brand equity, and once other players are forced out of the game unable to compete with the value of our CO2 extracted product, then we gradually slow down the discounting to increase margins. Just my thoughts..
Why discuss Nasdaq when that option was removed when shareholders denied the RS?
Amazon among many others.