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poker
cant agree with you more that there may be more downside, but that may really be in the spring of 2009,
we may have to get some altitude prior to going throught the lows, though we may certainly retest those areas the next 6 weeks
thats my take on lookng at the prior cnetury's bear markets
st
pokder - what strike and what month ?
nov 34 or 35 put? may get a better fill tomorrrow for a quick ride down after expiry in oct?
st
thanks poker. too much instability for me, this past year, and wanted to just watch. its been very instructive, no doubt.
my targets are 950 and 780 roughly as well.
question is whether it goes up before testing the 950 are, and how far out the 780 date gets pushed out.
regards
st
poker-
goodto see youre hanging in there.
i took a break from active trading the past year as i saw that the market was weakening and i must say it was not a bad decision in retrospect.
i sense a bottom coming soon; atleast in terms of tradability for my skills both long and short
what are your downside argets on the cubes, spx, compq?
thxx
poker-
thanks bud
still have been doing the same - buying dips with front month calls.
not enough time for the boards, but i think of you guys often.
will check in periodically-
st
boyz-
ive been saying this for about a year now, so i know this may be getting tiresome, but boring is good. and imho, there is more to come...
if it drops sgnificantly the next couple days, that may be an oportunity to get back in long again...
all the best
st
i gety the idea of triggers and that , but what is the cost of commissions on such a high frequency system, and what amt of principal needs to be traded to make that cost - effeictive?
also someone had mentioned on the board that simple cci triggers at 100 intervals witht a 3/8 filter is quite sufficient on the 5 minute - what is your take on that?
thx
ps - nice chart.
the chart implies with the count - that are you saying that 1460 on the sp will not be taken out?
not doing any thing yet, but thinking of adopting \some element of this mechanical strategy.
it weems that at present you prefer the 1 min chart?
how would you mechanically integrate the 1 min with the 5 min or is that even necessary?
it seems that the 60 min down to the 5 min was a good advance, and i like the 5 min 10/20 cross, but was wondering about your protocol. seems like the 5 min 144 with 3/8 confrmation is not a boad way to go either
peace
nice work, nacona.
so as i see it -
use 1min chart with cci 720 and a 3e/8s cross on 1 minute to confirm trade? use the 0 +/- (50/100/200/300) as trigers watiing for 3/8 confirmation?
thx
poker- ive been quiet last couple on months because of the same reason. was active heavily long at the 200ema, now delta neutral.
so much power and leverage with options that there is no need to rush. the part about the bus is right, but golden opportnities only come around about 4-6 times a year. if you want to mess around, theres plenty of time for that. but if you miss a good set up, it could be days or a week or two before you get a favorable risk/reward to warrant an aggressive options trade.
i agree that it seems that we go down a bit and then higher.
peace brother
st
thanks
been out on vacation the past week, just got back.
need to recharge on a regular basis.
feeling good.
st
agree-
may be looking for short-term top around monday
could be looking to fill gap around 44.90
st
guys i think monday is holidy - mlk.
market opens tuesday, i believe.
thanks guys for thi info.
if anyone knows the subscriptiion address (denmo that s you r cue), i would probably sign up just because it seems to jive with my own analysis...
btw i worry about being short after oct 25, and i worry about being long after jan 15 till the end of feb- doesnt mean i dont do it, just that it worries me excessively...but thats just me.
st
thx be
but where is his original stuff? does he have a site, and is it in english?
st
gleno-
wondering what does that equate to on the q's, and who is this german dude?
st
we maybe witnessing a breakout with initial projection to 47ish area. 90% cash, 7.5% long 2.5% short for now.
lots of volume, lots of participation .
waiting for market to show its hand if otherwise.
morningall.
very dangerous here. closed all longs for a very good week.
those jan 43s are now off the board of close to the money calls!
hasnt happened to me in a while.
dipped toes into water with a very few jan 45 puts at .5.
looking for retrace and may reload/buy a few calls. looking for short term top at 45.1 to be retested by opex
looking for compq close above 2475 today to confirm breakout.
watching semis, goog, russell aw well. the first two not looking so good at moment, the russell very strong though.
st
farooq-
agree.
looking for possible short term top today or preferably at tomorrow gap up.
then possibly quick down till monday pm/ tuesday am then up big till expiry and final top till mid/end feb
well see how it plays out.
st
guys been long for 6 months. now looking for turn around next monday to wednesday around 45 but will have to see strength of trend at that time. may actually get acceleration of trend at that time point. -- atleast for 2-4 weeks target 41.75. lets se how it plays out. have alway felt uncomfortable shorting near the low end of the trading zone. higher enrty probably a higher percentage play. still long here from last week.
lets see how it plays out.
gga
happy new year al. may 07 be as prosperous as 06 was...
high 45.10
low 41.75
close 42.20
thas m y story and im sticking to it!
anyone else having trouble with stockcharts this morning/
ive noticed trouble yesterday for a while and all day today their site is down...
also had trouble( s- l- o- w- ) with etrade yesterday.
maybe a reflection of volume on the site for etrade... but quite the pain really....
st
well-
as i may have mentioned - mr market calls the shots around here...
gents- just unloaded a ton of dec 43 calls from yesterday.
now wondering if the top of the consolidation holds or does it break out. i vote for the latter, but expect a down day friday and upnext week. for the first time in a while, got a mother load of calls to price. mostly cause the market was backing and filling the past week.
have done well past months, but as noted earlier, have generally, really missed out on massive profits because i tend to get out for 30-50% and leave another 100% on the table.
just a trading point- i noticed a bunh of players were generally bearisn, and tey may well be right eventually, but the candle pattern form the past 2 - 3 days was saying do not short here. very similar to break in november.
look at hammer pattern 1st wekk nov and the subsequent day. looks a lot like today. gap to the top of candle form previous day and run above mid bb. i recall the players with the same commentary then as yesterday. question now is whether it contines in a similar pattern ofr consolidates here
this is opex, that was 2 weeks till opex.
peace
st
k-
just chilling here. have seems no one was here for a few weeks and - well it was gettin lonely out here all by myself !
have enjoyed the blessings of a strong market to trade the past 6 months. have learned not to argue too much with mr maket. it just doesnt pay, and if it doesnt pay, its just not worthwhile! now wondering which way the wind will blow next year -
im figuring that there will be a correction shortly or at the beginning of the new year and then more fireworks, but well see about all that when the time comes!
seasons greetings to all
st
gnetlemen-
7 day bear flag appears to be broken bounce off 20 ma.
volatility giving tnetative confirmation.
could fall apart any time, but likely may retest highs by tomorrow. out of all 43 calls now and out of half today from last week will hold rest of 44 calls for now. . .
st
DECEMBER RANGE PROJECTED - ST
ilike your thought process there frq .
here's my call
O 44.00
H 46.65
L 42.68
C 44.56
lets see what happpens.
questins is if it goes higher before it goes lower?
heck its been quiet here.
that exit friday looks timely now.
starting scaling back in today.
may be more aggressive tomorrwo on long side.
st
woodfish
thanks. was looking for an early exit today.
but gotta put in the time.
have a hapy turkey day!
st
will be plainning closing longs on friday.
anyone know what market hours are today adn friday?
i recall in past one was 3pm and ohter may have been 12:30?
anyway before i forget, happy tg everyone. i know we all havemuch to be thanikful for and this really is my favorite holiday. with the xmas / new year thing a close 2nd...
st
well i wold agree the big money has the resources. but i dont thikn they control much in the longer run. inefficiencies will be worked out one way or the ohter.
other point is that the world is becoming more connected and capital flows are easily directed across borders. and of course there are more players now. who may or may not compete against eachother. wittingly or unwittingly. this is an argument for the use of t/a- as any single player gets less powerful/influential, the markets tend to move in a more free fashion.
all major players need to have a t/a desk. the fact that the major players use dispersion analysis and sophisticated hedging strategies with varying leverage proves that they have lost some control over the broader markets. thas good for everyone actually. so the playing field will never be level, but is getting to be less of a climb up everest for most of us..,
ndx 1800 apppears to be holding as resistance here.
could see quck test in am prior to further move.
agree on downside bias, but may likely stay in 43.50 -75 area.
looking for test of 43.75 n morning and then retest of highs in afternoon tomorrow. but close ultimately lower on friday.
not going to be easy $ shorting imo..
lets see how it shakes out.
well
my friends, weve witnessed another fine example of why it is absolutely treacherous to get into puts in november for any sustained length of time.
you might as well just cut da boyz a check and fagedaboudit.
buying volatility.
have some of both nov 44 calls and 44 puts at .3
need to close above 44.60 or below 43.40 to make it work. but volatility should bring one or both itm prior to friday.
thx all
looking to go with ib
went out for lunch and holy smoekes!
btw- who let the bulls out this afternoon!
glad i kept some of those calls. may still be able to tag 44 plus by friday.
st
right on.
if it closes like this, would actually look for tagging of 42.50-42.90 area by thursday morning. would actully be good for bulls. may get it all done in one day too..
lets see where it closes
peace
st
probably not going to 42 frq, just my ho. but could have dip below 43 around 42.75 but i think we actually close over 43 .
more smokescreens and stuff.
amazing how with such regularity it seems to go on the fritz whenever market's at a critical juncture. could be related to volume of pariticipants checking out their stocks.
similar stuff happens with online brokers.
alas thinking of sitching to ib for trading options-
have actually missed hige gains for want of a few pennies btwn the bid and ask where i never got in. someitmeas at the actual bid or ask as well. got to be a better way than etrade. big diference btwn 200 contracts at .85 and .95 (2k)or even .90(1k). if i can spolit the diffenernce at .875 or .9, the potential savings are huge, and i can get in easier as well during tight markets...
anyone with experience with IB here?
thx
st
afternoon all
unloading half of those 42 cals form yesterday right here.
poker- what happened to that nice green ad red chart yuo had up-it seems to have shrunk again?
thx
st
couldnt help but partially reload this afternoon this time in 42 calls again. may be looking to add on a pullback on unload on mmove higher...