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hope you are not referring to me? As you would know I am not a doubter at all.
Just thought I may have missed D. Bhatt's 'wait till you see the RRR' phrasing JL referred...
really? Maybe I missed it, can't see any statement where he says 'wait till you see the RRR...' - please anyone seen this comment in written or oral form post it on the board... ?
All I see is from the 24 SEP PR:
“I look forward to the publication of these detailed REDUCE-IT results in a major peer-reviewed journal and to presenting them at the AHA in November,” stated Deepak L. Bhatt, MD, MPH, Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School.
Bhatt is not going to make a comment (like he did) to the effect.."Wait till you guys hear the RRRs in the R-I trial"..
Like he did?
Could you please attribute this statement? Where did he make this statement?
great post.
https://peterattiamd.com/tomdayspring5/
really interesting interview listen from around 55 mins to 1:05 mins....
the doc talks a lot about 'rocketing sales' of Vascepa and biggest upcoming AHA data and AstraZeneca's desire to combine omega3 to their rosuvastatin!
nice post.
nice post.
this is just gold....!
https://twitter.com/InvestorSwan/status/1052750258168565760
This massive mineral oil FUDSTER got an IGNORE from the man (Deepak Bhatt) himself.
lol
hahaha so true!
informative post, thank you.
Bring back the FLYINGFISH. Volcano’s about to blow!!
hahaha lol
https://mebfaber.com/2018/10/10/episode-125-tom-barton-the-biggest-problem-investors-have-is-things-changeand-they-dont-change/
What a great podcast from a truly great and relatively unknown investor which turned which turned a mere $3m into $6bn in AVEXIS!
Best part is the last 15 minutes when he talks about our baby AMARIN (AMRN) and how he owns it, loves it and could even be late and was buying big after it tripled...
ENJOY.
raf and zz - wouldn't read too much into JT's excitement on the CNBC interview which I agree never gets old :)
There has been no clear communication that CV death or all cause death showed stat sig reductions. However listening again to the initial press conference call and also the cantor call and noting there has been no secondary or minimal share sales from JT, I think his confidence bodes well for something striking at AHA.
zz spot on....however note if you look up JELIS too.... This trial also showed no stat sig reductions in CV mortality either.
Basically in short, wouldn't expect this. But if it comes, as the other JT says... hehe... "TOTAL GRAVY".
Also BB, love your passion, focus and dedication to the cause! Have to sometimes forgive your AMRN ebullience...
one month to go.......
from the article...
'Ethyl Esters Are Poorly Absorbed and May Do More Harm Than Good'
REALLY????
Only one - nippon suisan kaisha 1332 stock code Tokyo
Me too - appreciate all your posts HDG and looking forward to how you view the financials.
I think everyone was annoyed when they raised early in 2018 - Q: "Why NOW at this price if you are so confident of R-IT success?"
A from Amarin: "We wanted to be in a strong position post the trial result and focused on raising profile of Vascepa not focused on raising more money from the market under unknown market conditions."
To me... eventhough price they raised was disappointing, I think it was a very very good move in hindsight. A secondary at this point is totally optional. Optional on whether they go it alone or not.
My gut is you wont see a secondary, and if you do, it will be post AHA . My personal view is its most probably a positive signal for AHA they havent done one.
This is not comprehensible HDG.
$500 dividend? Huh? Lets show a profit before considering a dividend...
No R&D, no SG&A - this is also not logical. JT has said R&D wont fully disappear after REDUCE-IT ended. Also of course there will be SG&A, just look at all the reps they are going to have to sell sell sell, of course there will be SG&A.
for COGS, are you saying AMRN should make around 80% GM buying EPA and then selling it? Whats current GM?
I also disagree with your no discount / discount rate. Have to have some sort of deflator, most prob for me in line with the patent life or Teva settlement 2029/2030.
Also dont know how you get to 231bn Revenue? Even Lipitor worlds highest selling drug of all time only $145bn revenue over 14 years. V is only targeted to statin treated population...!
Anyway not sure if I am reading correctly, as much as I am an AMRN shareholder, some things are just not realistic. Maybe the street is behind in peak sales at 1 to 2bn p.a. but this board is just tooo ahead.
actually maybe should have looked first before posting :)....
https://www.biospace.com/article/disappointment-hits-as-amgen-s-repatha-prevents-heart-attacks-but-not-deaths-/
From the article: "For example, Amgen announced positive topline findings for the cholesterol drug Repatha in 2017; there was disappointment when the actual study was presented several months later"
Anyone know the details about Repatha and why people were disappointed several months later??
I thought one of the study committee members said something like 'every topline result in CV outcomes studies has matched the full publication results'?
understood. Thanks Raf and Sam.
guess the thing to be watching then most over next few weeks is V NRX ?
Thanks as ever Sam!
Can Sam or anyone else please explain how to interpret these scripts numbers that he always posts...
what do you look at to determine the growth???
many thanks in advance
Agree. love the fact JT is an accountant!
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/amarin-an-overnight-success-10-years-in-the-making-1.3651730
OVERNIGHT SUCCESS 10 YEARS IN THE MAKING :)
This was a great point, and is consistent with JELIS.
JELIS actually found no benefit in CVD risk reduction in relation to baseline TG. However, subgroup analysis found that combination therapy with statin plus EPA reduced CVD risk by 53% (compared to statin monotherapy), in patients with baseline TG ≥150 mg/dL and HDL-C <40 mg/dL.
Interestingly, this CV benefit in JELIS was not attributed to TG lowering (difference in TG reduction was only 5% between groups).
I read this as positive for AMRN with regard to differentiating itself. To me it means scientists/physicians/FDA etc all need to be educated and there is obviously a lot more to V than purely just lowering trigs....
this is great thanks so much for the link and all your posts. really worthwhile!
Totally agree with you that after listening to him speak, his knowledge about placebos and his integrity, there is just NO WAY that the mineral oil placebo is going to be an issue!
PS I liked the end when he referenced how difficult it was for a 'fish oil' placebo... my 2c is that they spent a huge amount of time on this and it was deemed to be the best option.
While talking about Europe I was wondering if anyone (I remember BB had looked in depth?) knew about the strength of our IP. Would appreciate anyone’s views who had studied?
Is it global? Are there any country carve outs? What are the key method of use patents around high strength EPA and is there any prior art anywhere? From memory as GSK was lovaza I assume it really was a super inventive step for AMRN to cut out he DHA!
My gut is AMRNs IP is good, but guess the devil is always in the detail...
I am also attending AHA...nothing will be better than being there to see the data presented and feel the reaction. Not even Vegas;)
JL glad you will be there too thanks so much for all your posts over the years.
Perhaps for those going to AHA we could organise a meet on the Saturday? Who is going?
nice work and post...
actually just looked in detailnow, these are all designated under pre-approved 105b trading plans where sale dictated even if have inside info good or bad...so none appear to be discretionary , so am not very concerned, but anyone else pls do share your thoughts?
so how do you read/view the sales HDG?
I read some were not based on trading plans and some were.
granted many management still holding most of their RSUs but curious to know if these sales were pre-planned or discretionary?
by virtue of some like JT not yet selling and the price/timing of sales, i would say part discretionary?
IF YOU LIKE ME and can't end your already busy day without scanning every single message on this board, then say "VASSSSSCEEEEEPPPAAAA"
Congrats everyone, this is a special place where I have spent a lot of time in over past few months. I love all the data and the relevant on topic debate.
Have hardly sold any shares and boy do I own many...
PS here is 9 mins of unique video footage you all might like which I found a few weeks back but have never seen posted:
http://www.nissui.co.jp/english/business/movie/03.html
ENJOY.
Wondered if there is a link there?
Seems less is on their website? Have you noticed a change in number and or type of roles?
Doesn’t strike me as logical to be taking these steps if data is bad and they can’t increase V sales?!
Useful thanks, agree bullish, can see the strikes but cannot see the expiry dates?
sept 18? Or Oct 18? Or in one year Oct 19?
Disagree.
It’s all about the data, not the market. Ie one of my bio stocks today PRQR had some stellar results in correcting LCA10 in vision (similar to spark ONCE in LCA2)
It’s up significantly whereas rest of my portfolio and market is rolling over.
One thing I do agree with you is following the money/chart. If you watched PRQR over past few months following the upmove it was obvious they were going to succeed. That being said, trial was kind of open label with one eye being the control. With AMRN I really believe no one has seen the unblinded unscrambled data until about how so these options trades were interesting. Was the volume in Oct 18 or Oct 19 calls? Sure it wasn’t a spread trade?
Ain’t that the truth if I have ever heard it!!!
This could not be better imo. If AMRN drops on Monday, even post call with JT reminding everybody yet again the differences, basically that tells you how the market views AMRN! And that would explain a lot of the weak pps over past few months. Its just so obvious there is a dose response even looking at AMRN's own 2g and 4g previous trials. That people would even expect a result with approx one tenth!! the amount of EPA in a population that is not high-risk is beyond me.
Can't wait for R-IT now and hope all our data driven confidence is not misplaced.
For me, the m,ost uncomfortable thing about holding AMRN is not this ASCEND study, it is some of the totally ridiculous statements made on this board! Makes me think ... do I really think I am on the right side of this as a long judging by some of the wild optimism of buyouts before the data etc.
No probs - thanks for your personal experience reply to my question from a while back.