I listened to the entire meeting and although it feels like there aren't any meaningful updates that they can share which could help propel the price of the stock in a positive way. However, after listening to the responses from Geron I have to say that I feel a lot more comfortable/confident that the company will in no way collapse/go out of business, if Jansen were to choose not to continue the collaboration.
I believe shorts will probably try to convince people that the reason why there are plans to put another ATM program in place is that they're afraid that Jansen will pull out. In my interpretation, it's a vote of confidence in the company that they don't plan to fold regardless of the decision from Jansen. Creating independent value is very important for a company in the long run and it almost seems like they rather prefer that Jansen decides not continue in some sense because in the longer run they would be worth a lot more and have many more potential bidders. The first question over the phone is what almost every long investor is thinking about right now: is this a platform drug? The answer in my mind is a define yes and although Geron is being very conservative and not trying to get ahead of themselves, but you already know that they know about this news and are trying to down play it like it's nothing. If you're a big company like J&J, you don't just put out "interesting" observations to share with the rest of the world. It's almost like them telling everyone that they're going to continue the collaboration and are already looking at other options to maximize the value of this drug.
The company's focus in trying to get approved in at least 2 indications before they start branching out to other possibilities is the right approach. You can almost be certain that they will be some failures along the way, but it doesn't mean in any way that they won't be approved for other indications moving down their list of prioirities and AML is definitely in my mind going to be a 3rd option on the list moving forward if either MF or MS indications don't pan out. If you're a short, it's very stupid to short a biotech stock that has the potential to become a platform drug. Most drugs if they fail at their major planned indications, they're likely to fold, however it's not the case with GERN. It's very clear that there's enough interest level in GERN that regardless how many millions of shares available to be shorted, there's enough buyers gladly willing to take them, in other words the demand is greater than the supply. You just can't doubt a Nobel Prize winning science.
I've been investing in Biotech stocks for over 7 years and most of it has been successful, the most recent success was ARIA where I bought in at $2.90 and waited 3+ years before it was bought out at $24.00. I believe one of the most important things to gauge is the confidence level within the company, so it's very crucial to listen to all the webcasts to make that determination. It's very clear to me that GERN is giving me the same kind of vibe I got with ARIA and I urge all longs to not sell a single share and keep accmulating and I'm very confident that you will eventually be rewarded very handsomely. Let's all work together to dry out that well for the shorts. My prediction is that this will continue to be a heavily shorted stock if another ATM program is introduced, but the price of the share will again be driven up to another 52-week high before settling around the $5 range until the end of Q3 2018, where we will be expecting the decision from Jansen. If Jansen is to continue the colloboration, I predict the stock to raise to $8-10 range and expect a buyout offer ($18-25 range) around Q4 2018 - Q2 2019. If Jansen were to discontinue the collaboration (more unlikely scenario), the stock price will plummet to around $1.20-1.50 range, it's unlikely to plummet below $1 range as this stock has much more independent value than most people have given it credit for.